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THE Power Grid Thread (merged)

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: Are you prepared for the grid to go off?

Unread postby jasonraymondson » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 01:22:08

PenultimateManStanding wrote:
jasonraymondson wrote:
Narz wrote:
jasonraymondson wrote:Apparently some of you "geniuses" don't pay much attention to what is going on.

I've paid great attention. Whenever some yahoo claims the unwavering ability to predict the future (especially on peakoil.com) he's usually wrong.


Check my record.

I have the highest amount of recorded instances of correctness.

Do I believe in psychic bull crap. Nope, but I am damn good at spotting patterns. I am also a damn lucky guesser
Anyone with an adorable little child has a strong built-in incentive to denial. It's a scary existential threat. Since this is Thanksgiving its worth considering the experience of the Puritans in their dark winter of despair. Almost every woman in the early colony died, but almost every one of their children survived. I believe we will be tested as they were in 2009. Perhaps 2010.


I have no kid, that could explain why I am a doomer. How about you PMS?
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Re: Are you prepared for the grid to go off?

Unread postby Narz » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 01:28:54

jasonraymondson wrote:Check my record.

I have the highest amount of recorded instances of correctness.

Do I believe in psychic bull crap. Nope, but I am damn good at spotting patterns. I am also a damn lucky guesser
Where's your record?

Can you explain why the grid is going to "go off" in 2009?

Who will benefit from it? What will be the trigger? Is it just going to stay off? Will this just happen in the US or worldwide? How will Obama explain it?

I just get tired of these vague "this will happen" crap. It's what makes this forum look bad. And even in the off chance you're right you haven't given us much to discuss. If the Internet is going to die in a year or less at least lets have some intelligent discussion in our last few months, shall we?

And PMS, please desist with the whole, anyone who disagrees with me is in "denail" MonteQuest crap. :roll:
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Re: Are you prepared for the grid to go off?

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 01:32:21

jasonraymondson wrote:
PenultimateManStanding wrote:
jasonraymondson wrote:
Narz wrote:
jasonraymondson wrote:Apparently some of you "geniuses" don't pay much attention to what is going on.

I've paid great attention. Whenever some yahoo claims the unwavering ability to predict the future (especially on peakoil.com) he's usually wrong.


Check my record.

I have the highest amount of recorded instances of correctness.

Do I believe in psychic bull crap. Nope, but I am damn good at spotting patterns. I am also a damn lucky guesser
Anyone with an adorable little child has a strong built-in incentive to denial. It's a scary existential threat. Since this is Thanksgiving its worth considering the experience of the Puritans in their dark winter of despair. Almost every woman in the early colony died, but almost every one of their children survived. I believe we will be tested as they were in 2009. Perhaps 2010.


I have no kid, that could explain why I am a doomer. How about you PMS?
I have four children, 15 to 27. I dread the thought of collapse. I read the news carefully and don't have my head in the sand, though.
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Re: Are you prepared for the grid to go off?

Unread postby Narz » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 01:33:22

jasonraymondson wrote:I have no kid, that could explain why I am a doomer. How about you PMS?

He's got four, they're all going to draw straws to see which one of them gets to be dinner for the rest.
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Re: Are you prepared for the grid to go off?

Unread postby Narz » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 01:34:57

PenultimateManStanding wrote:I have four children, 15 to 27. I dread the thought of collapse. I read the news carefully and don't have my head in the sand, though.

How will reading the news help your children?
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Re: Are you prepared for the grid to go off?

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 01:37:55

Narz wrote:And PMS, please desist with the whole, anyone who disagrees with me is in "denail" MonteQuest crap. :roll:
denail, that's pretty good. Freudian slip. De nail in de coffin. I have no intention of desisting from saying what I think. If you don't like hearing gloomy pessimistic opinions then why are you hanging around in a peak oil forum?
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Re: Are you prepared for the grid to go off?

Unread postby Narz » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 01:41:10

Don't get me wrong. I think bad things are in store for us. I just don't think it's gonna be the grid going off. That's what you guys want to happen because it's easier to stock up on beans & imagine you're hole out a zombie free-for-all than the actual reality of a long-drawn-out depression where your preps are all for naught.

Of course you already know this, that's why you have thousands upon thousands of posts instead of prepping. At least just don't lie to yourself.
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Re: Are you prepared for the grid to go off?

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 01:42:15

Narz wrote:
PenultimateManStanding wrote:I have four children, 15 to 27. I dread the thought of collapse. I read the news carefully and don't have my head in the sand, though.

How will reading the news help your children?
So, what are you saying, should I not read the news? Is that what you do? We may be witnessing the most important event in human history. Do you think that not reading the news will help your little loved one?
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Re: Are you prepared for the grid to go off?

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 01:43:31

Narz wrote:At least just don't lie to yourself.
I could say the same to you.
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Re: Are you prepared for the grid to go off?

Unread postby jasonraymondson » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 01:44:34

Narz wrote:
jasonraymondson wrote:Check my record.

I have the highest amount of recorded instances of correctness.

Do I believe in psychic bull crap. Nope, but I am damn good at spotting patterns. I am also a damn lucky guesser
Where's your record?

Can you explain why the grid is going to "go off" in 2009?

Who will benefit from it? What will be the trigger? Is it just going to stay off? Will this just happen in the US or worldwide? How will Obama explain it?

I just get tired of these vague "this will happen" crap. It's what makes this forum look bad. And even in the off chance you're right you haven't given us much to discuss. If the Internet is going to die in a year or less at least lets have some intelligent discussion in our last few months, shall we?

And PMS, please desist with the whole, anyone who disagrees with me is in "denail" MonteQuest crap. :roll:


My post history.

I did not say the grid was going to go off, but next year we will start seeing power outages. My grandfather use to work for a main midwest hub and he maintains his friends for life. He has been hearing reports of different companies that are starting to freak over budget costs, as well increased consumption of electrical power as people have been staying home. There is has been ever increasing demand on the infrastructure and most are worried and looking for help and solutions at the moment. First part of Next year, there is suppose to be some big hub bub about the energy suppliers traveling to Washington looking for relief.

((Looking for money, for building more infrastructure, larger plants, converting humans to batteries))

I never said the internet was going to die next year (it might, you never know(I doubt it)) Please don't put words in my mouth.
Last edited by jasonraymondson on Fri 28 Nov 2008, 01:49:41, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Are you prepared for the grid to go off?

Unread postby Narz » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 01:44:53

PenultimateManStanding wrote:denail, that's pretty good. Freudian slip. De nail in de coffin. I have no intention of desisting from saying what I think. If you don't like hearing gloomy pessimistic opinions then why are you hanging around in a peak oil forum?

Because I'm lonely and I like the overly pessimistic more than their philosophically-opposed counterparts. It's two sides of the same coin though. Everything's go to be ok so why do anything. We're all doomed so why do anything.

I'm stuck & don't know what to do & I prefer your guys' company so here I am. :)
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Re: Are you prepared for the grid to go off?

Unread postby Narz » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 01:46:30

PenultimateManStanding wrote:So, what are you saying, should I not read the news? Is that what you do? We may be witnessing the most important event in human history. Do you think that not reading the news will help your little loved one?

Maybe.

Can you point to a particular article or articles you feel will enhance your probability of survival?

PenultimateManStanding wrote:
Narz wrote:At least just don't lie to yourself.
I could say the same to you.

Go for it. If you think I'm full of sh!t please tell me why & where!
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Re: Are you prepared for the grid to go off?

Unread postby Narz » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 01:49:57

jasonraymondson wrote:My post history.

I did not say the grid was going to go off, but next year we will start seeing power outages. My grandfather use to work for a main midwest hub and he maintains his friends for life. He has been hearing reports of different companies that are starting to freak over budget costs, as well increased consumption of electrical power as people have been staying home. There is has been ever increasing demand on the infrastructure and most are worried and looking for help and solutions at the moment. First part of Next year, there is suppose to be some big hub bub about the energy suppliers traveling to Washington looking for relief.

I never said the internet was going to die next year (it might, you never know(I doubt it)) Please don't put words in my mouth.

Ah, ok. So now you're saying occasional power outages. Not grid off for good. Yes, I prepared for that. My no interenet comment was assuming (I guess wrongly) that you thought the gird would go off for good next year somehow.

Personally I'd love to live off the grid for good. I'd love to power 100% of my electricity thru a rowing machine & if I'm too goddamned lazy to row then fuck it, I get no power. Easy, cheap electricity makes people soft. Fuck it!
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Re: Are you prepared for the grid to go off?

Unread postby jasonraymondson » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 01:53:25

jasonraymondson wrote:Next year the power failures will start.


Did not say (POWER GOES OFF FOREVER) BE PREPARED FOR ZOMBIES


As to a few posts regarding still having a toilet.

I found this from a search. Please understand.

you need electicity to flush a toilet. How else would the water get to the house? I am sure that there are some in the world that have a real gravity system but for the most part the water is pumped to the house from a well or a city system. They use electricity to run the pump. As one answer stated, you can use a bucket to fill the toilet and flush it but where did that water come from? Could be rain water I suppose but I bet you wouldn't do that for long.


Also without electrical systems and tools... what happens when your sewer backs up? Do you really feel like digging out your sewer and rotorootering yourself?
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Re: Are you prepared for the grid to go off?

Unread postby Narz » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 02:05:15

Forgive me, I didn't read your whole OP, just going by the responses I skimmed. My apologies.

As for shitting, ideally I'd like to live someone rural where I can sh!t outside (or make humanure). Honestly, I hate using toilets, such a waste.

When I lived in Queens and my bowl broke (and the landlord took two weeks to fix it) I shat in plastic bags & tossed 'em on roofs around the neighborhood. :lol:
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Re: Are you prepared for the grid to go off?

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 13:01:06

Personally, I think the issue will be intermittent brownouts/blackouts in high density areas, like when I was a kid, rather than BOOM the grid goes down forever OMGBBQZOMBEES!

As far as how people will adapt, they'll do like they do in every other other blackout. Wikipedia/Google is your friend. :)
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Re: Are you prepared for the grid to go off?

Unread postby Narz » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 18:14:19

RedStateGreen wrote:BOOM... OMGBBQZOMBEES!

:lol:

BTW, did you see my post in the Vote game in response to your question about Bxf7? You can scroll thru the old comments, just click the "Archive" tab below the board.
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Re: Are you prepared for the grid to go off?

Unread postby ki11ercane » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 19:05:24

I don't believe other than the regular issues of heat waves, ice storms, hurricanes, or other disasters, rolling brown or blackouts will not start occurring in a quantity that is predominately noticeable based on today's economic, social, and energy issues until 2016 at the EARLIEST. As this is a website pertaining to PEAK OIL issues and it's effect on our economic, social, and energy issues, the current infrastructure issues to energy shortfalls have nothing to do with liquid energy depletion and it's impact on the future energy infrastructure TODAY. The problems mentioned in the report in question are DECADES OLD and should have been addressed 10+ years ago when oil was $10.00 a barrel and not $147.XX a barrel like it was 6 months ago. Just because the talking heads say we're going to have electricity supply issues in 2009 doesn't mean it was a problem that cropped up a week ago. We had the chance when oil was cheap and the economy was good to make sure we would make good on future energy needs, AND WE BLEW IT! The horse has escaped from the barn, so there is no point now pointing out the problem of not closing the barn door. Too late.

Sorry, don't mean to give you a solid serving of doom, but we were supposed to be thinking about these issues in the 70's. This problem, like Peak Oil, is already in the rear view mirror.

If you're worried, move to Manitoba. 96% of our power is hydro and wind. The other 4% is diesel. And we make more than we use and export the balance to the U.S. at $1000.00 per watt so we can build that new wind farm in southern Manitoba. Lots of space here if you don't mind the winters.
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Re: Are you prepared for the grid to go off?

Unread postby Cloud9 » Fri 28 Nov 2008, 19:20:48

The good news is I live in Florida. I had a thirty foot well drilled for lawn irrigation. I had the water tested by the local health department. On top of the well head is a check valve. The valve holds the water up to ground level. I put a shut off valve between the pump and the lawn irrigation system. In times of need, I shut off the lawn irrigation valve and screw a hand pump directly on top of the irrigation pump housing. Then it is a simple matter to use the hand pump to fill five gallon buckets and use them to fill the holding tanks of the toilets. Sanitation problem solved.
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Power Grid Efficiency

Unread postby Nookster » Sat 06 Dec 2008, 17:18:36

While the mass media tells us to replace our incandescent bulbs with compact fluorescent bulbs, they fail to address the bigger issues.

First, compact fluorescent bulbs only save energy when used in locations that are warm enough that you wouldn't otherwise heat them. If you're in a location where it's cold and you're going to be running the heat anyway, there is no efficiency advantage because the waste heat from incandescent bulbs isn't waste in that situation, it's heat that displaces heat that would have had to been created in some other manner.

Second, the amount of energy lost in the electrical transmission system is approximately 17% of that generated and is roughly equal to all of the oil the US imports.

That loss could be reduced to around 2-3% by converting every long distance transmission line 300 kilometers or longer to DC transmission. Most of the loss in AC transmission lines are caused by radiation which also has negative health impacts for those near the lines. DC transmission eliminates radiation, the loss of energy associated with it, and the health issues caused by it.

Copper losses (resistive or IR losses) are also reduced by DC transmission because the skin effect, a condition where the AC magnetic field forces the current to flow only near the surface of the wire, effectively reducing the cross-section of the conductor and increasing resistance, is eliminated in DC transmission allowing the full conductor cross section to be eliminated.

An additional factor is phase shift in the transmission lines changing with load. When lines are heavily loaded, the AC phase relationship at the destination changes and causes current to flow between generating sources without ever going through the load, this energy is lost. DC transmission eliminates the phase issue because the converter equipment takes care of phasing when the DC is converted back into AC.

Converting to DC also increases line capacity through several factors. First, the peak AC voltage is 1.414 times the average RMS voltage, insulators must be designed to withstand this peak voltage. This means, for the same insulators, DC can be run at 1.414x the AC RMS value, this is a 1.414 times improvement in capacity.

Second, because the full cross-section of the conductor can be used, higher currents can be transmitted. Lastly, because sag induced phase shift is no longer an issue, higher currents can be transmitted. The sum of all of these factors approximately doubles the capacity.

DC transmission lines don't suffer the cascading failure mode of AC lines because load does not affect line frequency, and output voltage can be adjusted by the conversion equipment. Thus load shedding to maintain frequency is no longer required.

DC lines are immune to space weather, because low frequency induced voltages don't fry AC transformers at the far end that have a low impedance to those low frequency DC currents. Instead it only slightly adds or subtracts from the DC voltage and that is adjusted for in real time by the conversion electronics.

DC long distance transmission lines make much longer distances practical because of their lower loss. This makes east-west grid ties practical and that in turn would allow us to distribute the regional peak loads, and peak production capacities of renewable sources, across the country.

Although the capital costs of such a conversion nation wide would be high, they would be nothing compared to the 1-2 trillion a year we are spending on imported oil and by enabling greater use of geographical diversity, alternative sources like wind and solar become much more practical.

I'm not saying down with compact fluorescent lights, I use them, but I am saying let's make the big investments where they can make the big difference.

Modernizing the national power grid would make a HUGE difference in our carbon foot print, and while it's initially expensive, the payback is forever. That is, once we make these capital investments, we'll continue getting that energy that was previously lost year after year after year, saving 1-2 trillion a year every year, forever.
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