[some_math_guy]

>Energy crisis managers on top of situation
>MANILA, PHILIPPINES - Following the abrupt shoot-up of oil price in the world market due to the existing tension between US and Iran, and the current insurgency in Nigeria, Malacañang assured the Filipino nation that its energy crisis managers are on top of the situation.
>“We already have strong safety nets in place to lessen the impact of rising oil prices on the cost of the basic commodities,” Press Secretary Ignacio Bunye said
>

Whew...I can relax now that I know someone has figured out how to solve the peak oil 'problem'. Excuse me while I head to the beach in my new SUV...

I had to chuckle this morning when the radio guy cheerfully said , 'And oil prices reached record highs today due to international tension'...as if that's the only thing that's sending oil prices to the moon. I guess it's only human nature to 'name the blames', but I keep wishing for the media to just come out and say it, '...and oil reached record high prices again today due to massive consumption and limited supply. OPEC now admits that it is powerless to increase production to mitigate the crisis.

Iran is making things worse, but peak oil is HERE. NOW. Is the public starting to get it???

[something_awfull]

tut Tut mr.Malacañang, didnt you read the IMF report, the public has to pay full freight for fuel. The men with the little oil drum cases will be around later.

[bruin]

The interesting thing in these countries is that they subsidize the cost of fuel. With oil going up, these governments are going to go into debt or pass it along. So the uptick there will be far greater for the common folks then for the US or Europe.

[something_awfull]

The interesting thing in these countries is that they subsidize the cost of fuel. With oil going up, these governments are going to go into debt or pass it along. So the uptick there will be far greater for the common folks then for the US or Europe.

some of these countries also rely on foreign aid, so in effect, it will be you and me who will be subsidising their fuel. I suppose as the west is hit harder and harder by oil costs, the foreign aid budge will shrink having bad effects on these countries, we'll see what post peak life will look like.

[Clouseau2]

The interesting thing in these countries is that they subsidize the cost of fuel. With oil going up, these governments are going to go into debt or pass it along. So the uptick there will be far greater for the common folks then for the US or Europe.

You mean the countries DIRECTLY subsidize the cost of fuel. The INDIRECT subsidies in the United States are immense (resource wars, give-aways to oil companies, etc.).

[lotrfan55345]

The Phillippines is far from reliant from foreign aid nor does it subsidise gasoline. They just don't tax it.

Anyway, Manila is a very sprawly and car-driven city.

[copious.abundance]

Indonesia, Falkland Islands, New Zealand, India, Australia, and now the Philippines. One or more of these is bound to eventually strike it big.

--> LINK <--

Posted on Wed, May. 07, 2008
Nido Identifies 11.6 Billion Barrels of Oil-in-Place Potential; Seeks a Strategic Partner
By Nido Petroleum Ltd

PERTH, Australia, May 7 -- Nido Petroleum Ltd ("Nido") is pleased to announce that after completing several large seismic surveys, its deepwater prospects and leads inventory in the NW Palawan basin has oil-in-place potential of 11.6 billion barrels.

Following recent positive responses from major oil companies, Nido is now commencing its formal search for a strategic partner to explore for oil and gas in the Philippines and is inviting industry players to submit Expressions of Interest to participate in a world-class offshore exploration program.

[...]

And no, Nido Petroleum is not one of those state-run companies, in case you were wondering. It's an Aussie company:
http://www.nido.com.au/

Here's their press release with more info. Pages 10-12 have some geologic and exploration history info:
PDF News Release

[copious.abundance]

And though that 11.6 billion barrel figure is based on seismic readings, apparently this oil is not just theoretical. There have actually been successful wells drilled there. Here's a couple of recent ones by Nido Petroleum:

Galoc-3
Completed early 2008
Flowed 5,200 bpd

Galoc-4
Completed early 2008
Flowed 6,465 bpd

[copious.abundance]

Here's their press release with more info. Pages 10-12 have some geologic and exploration history info:
PDF News Release

Now that I've had a bit more chance to read this over, this area is even less theoretical than indicated just from the two wells I linked above. Page 12 of the PDF:

HISTORICAL SUCCESS RATES IN THE PALAWAN BASIN

A total of 128 wells (comprising of 96 exploration, 24 development, and eight appraisal wells), have been drilled in the Palawan Basin. Ninety seven of the 128 wells were drilled in the NW Palawan Basin. Twenty-one were discoveries and six fields were developed for commercial production. All in all, 12 exploratory wells were drilled in the deep water areas of the NW Palawan Basin. Of these, eight were hydrocarbon discoveries and four were dry, resulting in a very high success ratio of 67%. The limited drilling activity effectively means that the basin is relatively underexplored, and may yet contain many more significant discoveries.

Over 30 wells (>50% of exploration wells) tested in excess of 1,000 barrels of oil per day or 1 million cubic feet of gas per day with several wells testing in excess of 20,000 barrels of oil per day.

And just to highlight some further potential, ppg. 18-19:

The deeper waters of SC-58 could potentially host several billion barrel accumulations. Interestingly, there are several opportunities to test several targets with a single well-bore, which should increase the possibility of success over the course of a drilling campaign. Given the magnitude of the identified prospects and leads, SC-58 represents a high impact exploration opportunity not just for Nido, but for any oil and gas company in the world.

[EnergyUnlimited]

12 billions of barrels of oil in place in deep water will deliver about 3-4 billion of barels of oil, if anyone bothers to try hard recovering it.
EROEI will not be good either as there is a lot of hassle to get such oil.

I only wonder why every such discovery results in steady increase of market price of barrel of crude (now close to $124).
Few more such discoveries and we will end up with $200.
They better stop drilling.

[TheDude]

Or we should really try KTH's cardboard cutout rigs, like Patton's fake army. If the markets think there's 50 BBO discovered we can all relax!

You should start a thread keeping a tally of worldwide totals of discovered OOIP/URR, OF2. Maybe build it into your signature. Que Sera? Kind of a strange choice, given your sunny outlook. Would you tell a Jew in 1936 Berlin he should just hope for the best, come what may?

[Chuckmak]

[Gazzatrone]

Oooooo 11bb.

Turn the tap on at the beginning of January and should be good enough to get us through to the end of April-ish.

[seahorse2]

The mere fact that oilfinder is out scouring the deep waters for these potential paper barrels only shows how desperate the situation is becoming, when an ordinary JP6 spends his time concerned enough about the future of oil production that he spends the precious little life any of us have trying to convince himself that everything will be ok.

Don't be fooled by any of this. OF2 is not really trying to convince us, he's trying to convince himself. Its called reaffirmation of belief. There is a Jesus called oil, and he will raise from the dead in 3 days? six years? with the promise of new life; one only needs to keep the faith and keep Ford and GM from selling SUVs in China.

[TheDude]

He's certainly not in it for the adulation!

In his defense I'll grant it's admirable to do all this tabulating, whatever the ultimate outcome. There's a thread over at TOD I started this morning on the extent of future Megaprojects, wondering what we'll have on tap post-2012, where the projects taper off abruptly. Will we go over a cliff? Or have the projects just not been announced yet? The latter seems more the case, or has been in the past; one response I received pointed out that in Skrebowski's 2004 Megaprojects list he saw a shortfall arriving around now:

If we look beyond 2007, however, the outlook becomes rather more problematic. Only three mega projects are so far known for 2007 and a further three for 2008. For 2009 and 2010 only the later stages of existing projects are currently known about. Consequently, the volumes of new production for this period are well below likely requirements.

But plenty of new projects have materialized through 2012. Is this simply an ongoing inability to see down the road? Or will we find that to make these newer fields economical the price of oil will need to be so high no one can afford it anymore? Or that the number of field makeovers/unconventional projects/new finds will dry up? There's the rub.

[lawnchair]

Yep. The finds keep coming.

And added together, the booked finds this year will be less than the oil we extract. Like last year. And every year of the last 25+.

And like every recent year, they will be pretty close to one fifth the booked finds in 1948. 1948... when the world population was barely a third what it is today.

[Valdemar]

Yep. The finds keep coming.

And added together, the booked finds this year will be less than the oil we extract. Like last year. And every year of the last 25+.

And like every recent year, they will be pretty close to one fifth the booked finds in 1948. 1948... when the world population was barely a third what it is today.

But don't you see? Now we've found all the little fields, all that's left MUST be the elephant fields! We can't lose.

[catbox]

Still, too many people on the planet. Won't change a thing.

cb

[Novus]

Oilfinder2 lends a great deal of credibility to this site. Back in the early days there were many like him and the debate between cornucopian facts and doomers facts led to a strong base for us to build off of. We would be just a bunch of raving loonies if we did not have people researching PO from all angles.

[copious.abundance]

I knew this thread would be popular.

For everyone commenting on the 3 or 4 billion recoverable barrels from this area, you're missing the point (as usual). Once you start adding up all these new areas, it does become significant. It's not just the Philippines, and it's not just New Zealand, and it's not just the Falkland Islands -- it's all of them put together. And since there are so many of these, as I said, one of them is bound to become something big all by itself. The claim by peakers that there are no unexplored areas of the world and there are no more big finds to be made is 100% pure propaganda.

Indonesia, Falkland Islands, New Zealand, India, Australia, and now the Philippines. One or more of these is bound to eventually strike it big.