[julianj]

excellent, both of you!

[EnviroEngr]

[TrueKaiser]

what about those wacky people who wanted to be raptured
anyway i give this story about a 6, it needs more of the following.

[JohnDenver]

For the newbies: Richard C. Duncan, PhD, is one of the ridiculous, alarmist parasites who have attached themselves to peak oil. Perhaps his most notable "prediction" is the following from March 5, 2001:

A previous study put the 'cliff event' in year 2012 (Duncan, 2001). However, it no appears that 2012 was too optimistic. The following study indicates that the 'cliff event' will occur about 5 years earlier than 2012 due an epidemic of 'rolling blackouts' that have already begun in the US. This 'electrical epidemic' spreads nationwide, then worldwide, and by ca. 2007 most of the blackouts are permanent.

http://tinyurl.com/3vbxy I was thinking of slapping him around some more on this one, and got to wondering what he's been up to lately. Did some googling, but it seems we haven't heard from Richard in a while. His website is dead, and the Institute on Energy and Man, of which he is the Director (and probably sole staff member ) doesn't seem to have a web presence. Anybody know what happened to him?

[Stoic]

I've been wondering the same thing. Ironically, it was my reading on the Olduvai Theory that eventually led to me reading about Peak Oil. I have to say that OT gave me quite a scare when I first went over the details, and it also turned me onto a lot of PO facts that I didn't know (like the US peaking in the 1970's, and worldwide discovery peaking).

But, the fact that he hasn't said anything in the past few years is very suspect. Not to mention the fact that his theory has a flaw which is addressed in the Wikipedia discussion re OT. Someone on there pointed out that the third world can increase in population, thereby decreasing energy per capita, and yet still allow for developed countries to live the high life. A simple, and yet powerful criticism.

[JohnDenver]

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/carbon ... pter1.html

[chargrove]

Sure, that chart shows a roughly level per-capita usage. And because of population growth, we have more "capitas" than we used to. That means an increase in usage over the population as a whole, as expected. So what's your point?

[jato]

For the newbies: Richard C. Duncan, PhD, is one of the ridiculous, alarmist parasites who have attached themselves to peak oil. Perhaps his most notable "prediction" is the following from March 5, 2001:

Didn't we just discuss this topic a month or two ago John? It is a fascinating topic, so I am happy to rehash it. The problem is, it hasn’t happened yet. 2007 is not here yet. Even if the SHTF in 2012 (his original date) I will be impressed.

I wasn't aware Richard had a website. Could I have the link?

[jato]

[JohnDenver]

I wasn't aware Richard had a website. Could I have the link?

Apparently he used to have a site, but it's dead. I'd bet the email is dead too:

Institute on Energy and Man
5307 Ravenna Place NE, #1
Seattle, WA 98105
[email protected]
http://www.halcyon.com/duncanrc/

Since you're a fan, maybe you could try to hunt him down and give us an update!

I looked for a Richard C. Duncan at that address on people search, but came up empty. There was another Richard C. Duncan in Seattle, but I don't know if that's him or not. Maybe you could do some sleuthing during your coffee break back at the office!

[jato]

DANGER! That would be a breach in ethics and against the law.

Maybe he is in his bunker! I wish I had a bunker!

[jato]

This thread is worthless without this chart:

Notes: (1) 1930 => Industrial Civilization began when (ê) reached 30% of its peak value. (2) 1979 => ê reached its peak value of 11.15 boe/c. (3) 1999 => The end of cheap oil. (4) 2000 => Start of the "Jerusalem Jihad". (5) 2006 => Predicted peak of world oil production (Figure 1, this paper). (6) 2008 => The OPEC crossover event (Figure 1). (7) 2012 => Permanent blackouts occur worldwide. (8) 2030 => Industrial Civilization ends when ê falls to its 1930 value. (9) Observe that there are three intervals of decline in the Olduvai schema: slope, slide and cliff — each steeper than the previous. (10) The small cartoons stress that electricity is the essential end-use energy for Industrial Civilization

[NevadaGhosts]

You tell him, Jato.

John, if you are so opitimistic about our future, perhaps you should start your own George Jetson space mirror forum, instead of wasting your time here with us 'doomers'.

[peaknik]

For the newbies: Richard C. Duncan, PhD, is one of the ridiculous, alarmist parasites who have attached themselves to peak oil.

WOW, that is what I call a good debunking! It's obvious your moral and intellectual superiority!

[holmes]

yeah for the life of me I can understand why denver is here. He is illiterate when it comes to ecology, biology and most natural sciences and always wants "THE NUMBERS". the fucking numbers are all over the place. study after study. library after library science university after science university. govt after govt. sorry capitalism and socialism is not reality, John. peace out. and the numbers on the sustainablility of ag practices is everywhere and quite quantifiable. But that not what folks want to hear. They want to hear what they want to hear. Later. We need to sacrifice people on those space mirrors like the aztecs and incas. appease the Gods. have a flint knife i knappped. Heart extraction.

[entropyfails]

yeah for the life of me I can understand why denver is here. He is illiterate when it comes to ecology, biology and most natural sciences and always wants "THE NUMBERS". the fucking numbers are all over the place. study after study.

JD hangs around for the same reasons that missionaries go to "uncivilized lands." He wants to re-convert people back to civilization. He believes that civilization will overcome all the obstacles presented by exponential growth in a limited environment. He thinks that everyone here trying to convince people that we cannot grow forever hurts his precious TRUE way of life and thus he comes here to "crusade" (his word) against it.

This site, peak oil, environmental degradation, and all the problems we have with endlessly growing humans in a limited environment challenges that assumption of endless growth inherent in civilization. Why does it surprise you that he comes here to fight it? For the great believers in western civilization, no other path exists. He has to keep everyone on the ship.

It seems like a silly endeavor to me, but he seems happy with it. Too bad it kills the world.

---
EntropyFails
Visit the Peak Oil Wiki at http://www.peakoil.com/wiki

[AlCzervik]

I am too stupid to understand the hard science of Duncan, but a lot of people other than Duncan have said we are going to have big time problems with natural gas very soon. See Matt Simmons:
"Simmons: I don't think there is one… The solution is to pray. Pray for mild weather and a mild winter. Pray for no hurricanes and to stop the erosion of natural gas supplies. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it's a certainty."
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/w ... ckout.html

The likelihood of a nat. gas crisis is why Duncan moved his date up to 2007.
http://www.bytesmiths.com/InfoArk/www.m ... isited.htm

So, while I think permanent blackouts by 2007 is extreme, rolling blackouts seem very possible. Duncan should be credited for even bringing up the possibility of permanent blackouts. If he is 20 years off on this, big freaking deal. It will just show we were too stupid to deal with the largest problem facing mankind when some really bright people like him were sounding the bell about energy sustainability issues.

[Stoic]

Does anyone have the energy per capita figures for recent years (2000-2004). I would like to see where the world is in relation to Duncan's predicted curve.

[johnmarkos]

I am too stupid to understand the hard science of Duncan, but a lot of people other than Duncan have said we are going to have big time problems with natural gas very soon. See Matt Simmons:

I don't think there is one… The solution is to pray. Pray for mild weather and a mild winter. Pray for no hurricanes and to stop the erosion of natural gas supplies. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it's a certainty.

Nearly two years after Matt Simmons predicted "certain crisis" after two years, we seem to be doing OK w/r/t natural gas.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngw/ngupdate.asp

The likelihood of a nat. gas crisis is why Duncan moved his date up to 2007.

So, while I think permanent blackouts by 2007 is extreme, rolling blackouts seem very possible. Duncan should be credited for even bringing up the possibility of permanent blackouts. If he is 20 years off on this, big freaking deal. It will just show we were too stupid to deal with the largest problem facing mankind when some really bright people like him were sounding the bell about energy sustainability issues.

Fair enough. By sounding the alarm, Duncan has gotten smart people to think about energy resources, consider the question of sustainability, and possibly try to solve these problems. However, people like Richard Smalley, Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, and Jorgen Randers have done the same while promoting a positive message of sustainability through good policy and civic action. My problems with Duncan's predictions are that he admits only one possible future scenario and that his supporting data are old and do not necessarily lead to a single "doom" outcome. Also, his message leads people to survivalism because it implies that working for the common good is useless.

[BlisteredWhippet]

If he has a telephone in his bunker, we can find him. The Internet is like a public street, there is no expectation of privacy. Its not illegal to track down people using the phone and the internet. I used to do work like this and tracked down people all the time.

I'll look into it if you send me the data you've got in a pm.