[JPL]

Positively doomerlishus!

The sad reality is that rather than shut things down on schedule the UK will prop up an increasingly knackered nuclear fleet (lights off=no votes) until the engineers finally run screaming from the building pulling on their Chinese-made survival suits & hitting the pedal for France.

Then it will be all be put down as some-one else's fault. Probably us in the 'Green' movement for objecting to all those *modern power stations the poor, maligned Party were trying to build for us.

JP

* modern as in without all those un-necessary old-style safety devices.

[eXpat]

The End Of Electricity
by Peter Goodchild

There seems to be a consensus that the depletion of fossil fuels will follow a fairly impressive slope. What may need to be looked at more closely, however, is not the "when" but the "what." Looking at the temporary shortages of the 1970s may give us the impression that the most serious consequence will be lineups at the pump. Fossil-fuel decline, however, will also mean the end of electricity, a far more serious matter.

It is easy to assume that the main issue with fossil-fuel depletion is the problem of what to put in our automobiles. For some, the problem may seem hardly big enough to worry about. The average motorist will have to accept paying far more for gasoline than in earlier times. "So what?" the driver may ask. "The Japanese [or whoever] have been paying far more for decades." And driving is not only a matter of transportation, it is one of our great passions. The mileage we rack up on our vehicles is breathtaking, and for many the motto is, "I'd rather drive than eat." We can always assume ― with only the slightest of guilt feelings ― that ecological matters are somebody else's problem. We are tacitly confident, in other words, that our own problem of fossil fuels can be solved by a job promotion and a raise.

But that view may be totally wrong. A far greater consequence of fossil-fuel depletion could be the effect on the production of electricity. As time goes by, the biggest question of all may be, "Can we even keep the electricity going?" If we end up facing unavoidable world-wide blackouts and brownouts, then the result will be a sudden and catastrophic chain reaction. Fossil fuels and electricity are tightly integrated. We cannot have one without the other. Without fossil fuels, we can produce no (or not much) electricity. Conversely, without electricity, we lack the "nervous system" (a good analogy, since nerves work by ion transfer) to control any equipment that uses fossil fuels.

If all the above is true, then what we should be thinking of is not the familiar slope of fossil-fuel depletion depicted in 20 or 30 major studies, but a figure consisting of a gentle slope that continues for a very few more years and then becomes a steeper curve downward. When fossil fuels are inadequate for maintaining electricity, the further results will be manifold. Fossil-fuel production itself will cease, and so will a great deal else.

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/50596

[eXpat]

Lights return following Brazilian blackout

Brazil emerged early Wednesday from a widespread power outage that plunged its major cities and at least nine states into darkness for hours, prompting security fears and concern from residents about another black eye for a country hosting the 2016 Olympic Games.

Power went out for more than two hours in Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and several other major cities, affecting millions of people, after transmission problems knocked one of the world's biggest hydroelectric dams offline. Airport operations were hindered and subways ground to a halt.

All of neighboring Paraguay was plunged into the dark, but for less than a half hour.

Brazilian authorities blamed storms that took down power lines and towers, causing a domino effect that rippled across the region.

Lights twinkled back on along Rio's Copacabana beach, in South America's largest city of Sao Paulo and in Paraguay's sleepy capital of Asuncion. But some traffic lights were still out in both Rio and Sao Paulo and traffic officials were expecting drivers to face difficulties the rest of the day, according to local media.

In Rio, Governor Sergio Cabral sent an elite police unit into the streets early Wednesday to help maintain calm in a city known for its crime. The mayor dispatched 300 extra unarmed civil guards to help control traffic.

The city saw a spike in assaults around the Maracana football stadium _ where the opening and closing ceremonies of the 2016 Olympics will be held, along with the 2014 World Cup final _ but a police spokesman said there did not appear to be too much trouble elsewhere during the two-hour blackout.

http://www.etaiwannews.com/etn/news_content.php?id=1105495&lang=eng_news

[eXpat]

British families have been told the shocking truth about the price of green energy. They must prepare to go without electricity for extended periods, warns UK’s top electricity boss.

Steve Holliday, National Grid’s chief executive issued a stark warning over the consequences of the UK ‘going green’ speaking to listeners to Radio 4’s Today program.

The shock admission was immediately picked up in the Daily Telegraph (March 2, 2011) in the article, ‘Era of constant electricity at home is ending, says power chief.’

Britain’s largest energy supplier, National Grid is one of the most lucrative privatised monopolies in the world. It dealt the cold realities to a nation already committed to spending £18 billion per year on unnecessary and unpopular ‘green’ taxes.

http://johnosullivan.livejournal.com/31784.html

[eXpat]

Bonkers' green energy risks power shortages

Scotland is in “serious danger” of suffering power shortages over the next decade thanks to Alex Salmond’s “bonkers” green energy policies, the head of one of the country’s largest generators has warned.
Rupert Soames, chief executive of Aggreko, said Scotland’s lights will be “perilously close” to going out because a huge proportion of existing coal, oil and nuclear power stations are due to shut down over the next eight years.

He accused politicians of “holding hands and singing Kumbaya to the great green God” but warned the reality is it will be many decades before renewable energy can plug the gap left by traditional sources of power.

Unless Mr Salmond ends his ‘wishful thinking’ and draws up alternative plans, Mr Soames warned Scotland will be in “deep trouble” by 2018

But SNP ministers dismissed his claims last night and argued their target of generating 80 per cent of electricity from renewable sources by 2020 was realistic, despite the cost and unproven nature of the technology involved.

Mr Soames, the grandson of Winston Churchill and brother of the Tory politician Nicholas Soames, was speaking at business conference at the Scottish Parliament.
Although his comments addressed an impending energy crisis across the UK, he suggested the problem is more acute in Scotland. The SNP has refused to allow the construction of new nuclear power stations north of the Border.

“How is Scotland going to react to the fact the national grid, on which we all depend, will lose 30 per cent of its generating capacity by 2013?” he asked delegates.

“We may wish the replacement to be wind, we may wish the replacement to be tidal but wishing isn’t going to make it happen and I think you have responsibly to have a Plan B.

“We have to move on from the days of holding hands and singing Kumbaya to the great green God or believing that Scotland is going to be the centre of the universe for renewables.”

The largest offshore wind farms are actually being built off the east coast of England, he said, which is closer to the major centres of energy demand.

Mr Salmond’s policies fail to recognise “the cold realities” of financing and engineering expensive new forms of green technology, Mr Soames continued.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/8129883/Bonkers-green-energy-risks-power-shortages.html

[Revi]

It's incredible that they all blame the shortage of electricity on the greenies, when that may be the only new energy coming into the grid. Good luck with getting nuclear going on a short time scale. The only reason the lights are on at all is because of the wind power and natural gas plants.

We can sing Kumbaya all we want, but nothing is going to create any additional fossil fuel sources of energy.

Reality is a painful choice for conservatives. Much better to blame the "liberals" for what is going wrong.

It would be nice if we could do some conservation and efficiency, but that's far too radical and "green".

[Cloud9]

Jane Fonda stopped nuclear plants here in the U.S. The sad thing is you cannot snap your fingers and build a plant. The good thing about the lights going out is that you get to meet your neighbors. The bad thing is that you get to meet your neighbors and they don't have any food or water or gasoline either.

[dorlomin]

Rupert Soames, chief executive of Aggreko, said Scotland’s lights will be “perilously close” to going out because a huge proportion of existing coal, oil and nuclear power stations are due to shut down over the next eight years.

Couple of points. Guess what business Aggreko is in?


http://www.aggreko.co.uk/

Backup power supply.

So do we have a bloke drumming up sales here?

Secondly the energy to keep 'the lights' on is dropping rapidly as 10 years ago we were all using 100Watt incandescants, now we are all using 15 Watt low energy bulbs. Also the big Lanarkshire steel works (well there are two or three small ones left), the Clyde ship yards and many other huge energy consumers have gone. I could sit and name the giant energy cosumers that have gone, so what is all the additional capacity being eaten up by?

Also Alex Salmond is first minister of Scotland but the Scottish energy is part of the national UK wide grid run by Westminister not Edinburgh so this is an attack on the left before the Scottish local elections in two months rather than anything about the national load balancing. Notice that although the current responsibility for the UK grid is with the conservatives its a small regional party that is the subject of this ire?

And finally if this Aggreko person is so interested in Scotlands energy alone, well we may be importing gas and oil for the UK but in terms of Scotland alone we are still floating on an ocean of oil and gas. We will most likely still be producing more than we consume in terms of the 5 million in Scotland for a decade or two to come.

Waiter, can you pass a rather large pinch of salt to go with this article please my good man?

[dorlomin]

Also given it huge windswept coast lines, high running tides and masses of wave power, if Scotland cant produce enough energy for its 5 million people Scotland is the least of the worlds problems.

[vtsnowedin]

How many Leafs and Volts can you charge up at one time with a closed coal fired power plant?

[eXpat]

And finally if this Aggreko person is so interested in Scotlands energy alone, well we may be importing gas and oil for the UK but in terms of Scotland alone we are still floating on an ocean of oil and gas. We will most likely still be producing more than we consume in terms of the 5 million in Scotland for a decade or two to come.

Waiter, can you pass a rather large pinch of salt to go with this article please my good man?

Hi dorlomin you rise a very good point there, Scotland does has a lot of energy souces for itself alone, but I think that as the political system stands now, in order to do that (use what you produce) you would have to declare Scotland indepèndent. Barnett Squeeze in action. Cheerio!.

[Tanada]

Bump for onlooker.

[onlooker]

Thanks T. Okay is the weak point in our Economies the Electrical grid? The financial markets? International commerce and trade? What will be the initial straw that will break the Economies back? Perhaps something exogenous to the Economy ? Actually I will create a separate thread about this and put it in the Economics forum

[Subjectivist]

Thanks T. Okay is the weak point in our Economies the Electrical grid? The financial markets? International commerce and trade? What will be the initial straw that will break the Economies back? Perhaps something exogenous to the Economy ? Actually I will create a separate thread about this and put it in the Economics forum

Short of an EMP/Carrington event the grid is fairly robust. As far as trade goes, shipping by massive cargo ship is still very very energy efficient. Rail is also highly energy efficient. That leaves cargo truck and cargo plane, which have bad and terrible ton mile efficiency.

[aldente]

Mr. Duncan is a genius ...

[Revi]

I think the place to be is near an ocean. Things can still move around on the water at least. We'll see what happens, but Duncan's original prediction is looking possible again. Maybe pushed back a few years.

[Revi]

Here's a list of blackouts worldwide. There seem to be more recently.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_m ... er_outages

[Tanada]

I think the place to be is near an ocean. Things can still move around on the water at least. We'll see what happens, but Duncan's original prediction is looking possible again. Maybe pushed back a few years.

I voted for the Great Lakes, which allows world trade through the Saint Lawrence seaway and once upon a time the New York Canal System. Many millions of tons of grain and other bulk commodities get shipped from as far as Chicago, Green Bay or Duluth into the international trade system on the oceans of the world. We still get freighters from Romania or Turkey that fit through the locks on the Seaway plying the Great Lakes every summer.

Add in both the maritime climate effect and the factor that they are massive volumes of fresh water and this feels like a good place to weather the storms of the future to me. Of course the fact that I grew up here biases my view a bit, but I try and back it up with facts.

[KaiserJeep]

I'm with Tanada on this one. Not only are the North American Great Lakes the largest bodies of fresh water on the planet, but their altitude makes the coming 10m or so of sea level increase a non-issue, as water levels are managed quite handily by the St. Lawrence Seaway series of locks. These locks are passive, requiring only the opening and closing of valves to operate. 10-30 meters of sea level rise will only impact the lowermost Lake Ontario locks, the other lake coastlines are likely stable until the glaciers come again.

The Western shore of Lake Michigan which is my target area has tides that are only 2-3 inches, and storms that seldom surge more than two feet. For the most part, the building codes require a setback beyond the 100-year storm line. There are some beautiful homes there:

https://vimeo.com/148513922

This area is largely dairy farms, and there are 100+ year log cabins and quite reasonable modern and Energy-Star compliant homes well under $100K. Like most of rural America, the area is underpopulated and services are somewhat sparse. However there are no known oil or gas shales in the area, either, nobody is likely to begin drilling around you. The water table around the lake is so high that people don't bother to drill wells, they just drive a perforated "well point" down a few feet and they have clean water.

Tanada has already mentioned the moderating impact on the climate that is felt when one lives next to so much fresh water, the Winter temps are higher and the Summer temps lower than the inland areas. Most homes are heated by propane and have a 500-gallon or larger tank in the yard. Hot water baseboard and forced air are popular options, backed by wood heat. These homes are easily adapted to all-electric after super-insulation, which is absolutely required as the area is heating Zone 6, the Winters are quite harsh. If one is going to live there, one needs a snow machine for travel and a scheme for plowing snow out as far as the public paved road. (At least until the AGW kicks in, if one is a believer in such.)

[AdamB]

I think the place to be is near an ocean. Things can still move around on the water at least. We'll see what happens, but Duncan's original prediction is looking possible again. Maybe pushed back a few years.

We're 5 years past his rolling permanent blackouts, so we've pushed some stuff back 5 years, you figure we are good for another 10 or 20?