[Revi]

Thanks Roccman,

I think I might get some of the basic stuff. Hard red wheat, etc.

[roccman]

Just as a note - I have ZERO financial interest in anything...except of course my own preps...and they are not for sale.

I have not found a cheaper place on the web to get bulk legumes and grains.

Locally - I use a place here in Phoenix cheaper by about 12%, but with the cost os grains and eveything going up...better get some while you can.

[seahorse]

jbeck,

Our infrastructure, grid etc., will survive everything short of a nuclear war or just plain old ransacking (which is what is happening in third world countries like Iraq, Zimbabwe etc). Will that ever happen here? I don't know. I certainly don't rule out a great depression driving many millions of Americans into desparate poverty. Already, copper theft ect are big time crimes and problems in many areas, so, some ransacking of the basic infrastructure is already occuring. As a lawyer, I also see many people who have lost business in this housing downfall who are having their utilities shut off and finding it difficult to buy groceries. Without credit cards, they would be starving I guess. Sooner or later, the credit cards will not be the answer. Our local food kitchen is out of food and making public calls for donations, so, there is a growing number of hungry people out there. Where this all leads, who knows?

[roccman]

Where this all leads, who knows?

While the details may be illusive...if one squints all the future alternatives look eerily similar.

[jbeckton]

jbeck,

Our infrastructure, grid etc., will survive everything short of a nuclear war or just plain old ransacking (which is what is happening in third world countries like Iraq, Zimbabwe etc). Will that ever happen here? I don't know. I certainly don't rule out a great depression driving many millions of Americans into desparate poverty. Already, copper theft ect are big time crimes and problems in many areas, so, some ransacking of the basic infrastructure is already occuring. As a lawyer, I also see many people who have lost business in this housing downfall who are having their utilities shut off and finding it difficult to buy groceries.

I question the notion that most of them cannot but groceries. Many people made real estate mistakes, and if it were not for real estate, these idiots were bound to make dumb mistakes elsewhere. I think that it is quite an adjustment for these people but how many of them really cannot buy groceries? Get a second job, McDonalds is always hiring. They are just "poor" compared to what they are used to. I think it’s going to take a pretty big leap to go after energized copper, and they will probably die before causing much damage. I don't see it getting that bad anytime soon.

Without credit cards, they would be starving I guess. Sooner or later, the credit cards will not be the answer. Our local food kitchen is out of food and making public calls for donations, so, there is a growing number of hungry people out there. Where this all leads, who knows?

Close down the soup kitchen until the employment ads are gone. Have you ever been to Eastern Europe or the Middle East? What people consider poor in the US is nothing.

I don't see how people can look at the situation and assume that everything will be fine, but at the same time, I cannot see how they envision total collapse in 6 months either.

[seahorse2]

J,

You're right, there is a lot of froth in the US system that can and probably will come off. However, the problem is mass hysteria. The other countries are far better conditioned to accept less. But even in these better conditioned third world countries, there is high crime, child sex slaver etc. Be that as it may, how would Americans react in a depression is worrisome. I personally don't think the public will handle it well. The American psychology is best summoned up by both Cheney and Bush saying "the American way of life is not negotiable." So far, we have opted not to change and go to war.

[Tyler_JC]

Unemployment rate by county:

Link

The problem isn't that there aren't enough jobs.

The problem is that people aren't moving to where the jobs are located.

I do not deny that there are people in serious need of help and that as the economy skids into recession over the next year that number will increase.

I just don't think we're going to see a mass starvation/die off in a country where 80% of the citizens think a clothes dryer is a "necessity".

[mos6507]

"The problem is that people aren't moving to where the jobs are located."

Maybe jobs should fan out to where the people are. Most of the jobs are officework that can really be done anywhere, including telecommuting.

[Tyler_JC]

"The problem is that people aren't moving to where the jobs are located."

Maybe jobs should fan out to where the people are. Most of the jobs are officework that can really be done anywhere, including telecommuting.

That works too, I suppose.

[static66]

Ahh, lawyers and who knows what jbeckton does for a living.... maybe he works for Google... they seem to be doing pretty well these days... I know for a fact he is not a truck driver... those guys are closing up shop in record numbers as diesel prices and related expenses force them out of work... the big guys in transportation are also sweating bullets right now as well.... but that's just the middle of the equation... the farmers... the big freakin factory farmers not the guy down the street with 100 acres under till... they are treading water as grain prices go up so does all there costs... vicious cycle of fuel costs and fertilizer and pesticide costs...
they are finding it harder and harder to keep up with 80-90 dollar bbl oil.... Roccman is right on with the financial picture, and remember the dollar is going to tank... gas prices are going to go up and the last part of the terrible triad of Producer/Shipper/Retailer will put up their white flag... you guys can't see that??? I wonder why King Faud left the kingdom yesterday to fly into Heathrow.... he was traveling light... 6 Royal Jumbo jets and over 400 advisors... he rarely leaves the kingdom.. met at the airport by Prince Charles himself.... Some say David Rockefeller was waiting in the front Rolls Royce...
Interesting times indeed. Good luck standing in line waiting to fill your cart with whatever is available at your local Whole Foods!!

[static66]

One more thing... the jobs report is NOT the way to look at the economy's overall health.... Most companies are borrowing and borrowing to keep up.... hoping for a Upturn that will never come. Home Depot and the rest of the big box guys are carrying far too much inventory than they can handle... the creative quarterly reports from the CFO's are getting harder and harder to fudge...
You guys are going to be so surprised... How did you get to be "Experts"???? Food and Fuel up over 50% this year... people are putting the basics on credit cards and barely making the minimums... the middle class is being systematically wiped out and you guys are talking about Clothes dryers and help wanted ads....
Yikes.

[Tyler_JC]

One more thing... the jobs report is NOT the way to look at the economy's overall health.... Most companies are borrowing and borrowing to keep up.... hoping for a Upturn that will never come. Home Depot and the rest of the big box guys are carrying far too much inventory than they can handle... the creative quarterly reports from the CFO's are getting harder and harder to fudge...
You guys are going to be so surprised... How did you get to be "Experts"???? Food and Fuel up over 50% this year... people are putting the basics on credit cards and barely making the minimums... the middle class is being systematically wiped out and you guys are talking about Clothes dryers and help wanted ads....
Yikes.

I'm not saying the economy won't suffer a downturn or that a lot of people are going to feel a lot of pain.

I'm saying that the downturn won't be a civilization-buster like some on this board are arguing.

[HEADER_RACK]

I just don't think we're going to see a mass starvation/die off in a country where 80% of the citizens think a clothes dryer is a "necessity".

This is exactly why I DO see mass starvation

[PenultimateManStanding]

I just don't think we're going to see a mass starvation/die off in a country where 80% of the citizens think a clothes dryer is a "necessity".

This is exactly why I DO see mass starvation

And that is why I do see life as a curse. It's not a popular point of view, but I see all these people and their kids and all these animals dying. I'm pretty much bummed out.

[bodigami]

I just don't think we're going to see a mass starvation/die off in a country where 80% of the citizens think a clothes dryer is a "necessity".

This is exactly why I DO see mass starvation

And that is why I do see life as a curse. It's not a popular point of view, but I see all these people and their kids and all these animals dying. I'm pretty much bummed out.

(samsaric, unenlightened) life is suffering...

[deMolay]

Jim Rogers quits dollar after declaring US recession
By Mark Kleinman in Hong Kong
Last Updated: 12:17am BST 26/10/2007



Jim Rogers, the veteran investor who predicted the 1999 commodities rally, declared that the US economy was "in recession" as he said he would take flight from the dollar and switch his investments into currencies including the Chinese yuan.

Japan and China lead flight from the dollar
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Market Forces: Keep track of what's driving financial markets
Mr Rogers, who ranks among the world's best-known investment figures, said he was putting his faith in China's politically-sensitive currency alongside the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.


Legendary investor calls time on the dollar
"I live in Asia. It is really not that strange that I am selling out of the US dollar," he told The Daily Telegraph. "All other things being equal during the next six months, that's the way I will go. But if the Swiss franc goes through the roof, I probably won't put money into the Swiss franc."

Mr Rogers' comments are followed slavishly by many members of the international investment communities, and his view that the US economy is in a worse state than that suggested by most economic commentators is likely to add to pessimism in some quarters about its health.

"The US economy is undoubtedly in recession," he said. "Many parts of industry are actually in a state worse than recession. If it were not for [Federal Reserve Governor Ben] Bernanke putting huge amounts of money into the market, the stock market would probably be down much more than it is."

Mr Rogers, a long-time enthusiast for investing in stocks hanging on the coat-tails of China's economic boom, said he had not altered his views about the booming Shanghai stock market.

China beats Germany for world trade crown
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Did the Fed apply the brakes too hard?
Merrill's loss stuns investors
Earlier this year, with the benchmark Shanghai index trading at around 4000, Mr Rogers, a former investment partner of George Soros, added his voice to the chorus of warnings about an incipient bubble forming in the mainland Chinese capital markets.

With the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 5843 points, Mr Rogers said he was relaxed about the market's continued growth.

"I still feel the same way. It's not a bubble yet - if it goes past 9000 in January I'll have to sell. Bubbles always end badly," he said. "I do not want to sell Chinese stocks. I want to own them forever and I want my [four year-old] daughter to own them."

Mr Rogers' comments came as Warren Buffett, the 'Sage of Omaha', urged investors to be cautious about the Shanghai market's surge, which has seen it rise by more than 125pc this year.

Speaking to Bloomberg during a visit to China, Mr Buffett said Berkshire Hathaway, the investment company he fronts, shied away from buying into soaring stocks.

Mr Buffett has been a major beneficiary of Shanghai's growth, reaping a profit of hundreds of millions of dollars from his stake in PetroChina, one of the world's largest companies by market value.

[deMolay]

Oil has peaked, prices to soar - Sadad al-Huseini
Posted on Monday, October 29th, 2007
(Podcast) Sadad al-Huseini says that global production has reached its maximum sustainable plateau and that output will start to fall within 15 years, by which time the world’s oil resources will be “very severely depleted”.

In an exclusive interview with lastoilshock.com, the former head of exploration and production at Saudi Aramco, said that oil production had reached a structural ceiling determined by geology rather than geopolitics, and that the technical floor for the oil price will rise by $12 annually for the next 4 to 5 years as new fields become increasingly costly to exploit.



According to al-Huseini the technical floor - the basic cost of producing oil excluding factors such as geopolitical risk and hedge fund speculation - is currently about $70 per barrel, meaning the minimum oil price could hit $106 in 2010 and $130 by 2012. Actual crude prices, including financial market factors, could be be as much as $125 by as early as 2010.

Al-Huseini said that Saudi Arabia’s plans to raise production capacity to 12 million barrels per day by 2012 represented “an achievable number”, as the country had announced oil investments of $55 billion between 2003 and 2011. But he cautioned that since some of the new production will come from entirely new fields “how the reservoirs will respond will be determined as they start producing”.

However, al-Huseini disparaged Western expectations that the Kingdom would produce significantly more than 12 mb/d. It was unfair, he said, to expect Saudi to “pull everybody’s chestnuts out of the fire”.

Listen to the interview with Sadad al-Huseini.


Some listeners have reported problems with this recording using Quicktime, but it seems to play perfectly well on RealPlayer and Windows Media Player.

[jbeckton]

Ahh, lawyers and who knows what jbeckton does for a living.... maybe he works for Google... they seem to be doing pretty well these days... I know for a fact he is not a truck driver... those guys are closing up shop in record numbers as diesel prices and related expenses force them out of work

I am an engineer, not an armchair economist.

While I was in college, I worked nights at a restaurant making $10/hr and lived a pretty decant life. My wife (girlfriend at the time) did the same. We didn't spend money like crazy but we were nowhere near starving.

With a median income of $46,326/yr the average household nets about $3860 a month:

$900 rent/mortgage
$300 utilities
$300 transportation by bus
$300 groceries

After these necessities you still have $2060 left to spend on the little things that come up and save the rest. But people do not save the rest, they spend it on cigarettes, cable, plasma TV's, cell phones, eating out, vacations, SUV's, sporting events, i-pods, designer clothes.....etc.

It's not that people can't afford food; it's that they can't afford all of that other crap. There are of course exceptions like single mothers, but the majority of "poor" people are just lazy or bad decision makers.

Most people have room in their budget for higher energy bills; they will just have to do w/o some of the other crap, which I think is good.


http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2 ... rate_x.htm

[static66]

I like this thread, good information and good veiwpoints from all sides... that is what this portal is for. King Faud Abdullah is in Britain today, I think he is talking to GB and PC about the immediate future of SA oil exports.... the jig is up for SA... they are putting close to $2billion into KAUST, the King Abdullah UNiversity of Science and Technology in Thuwal, SA. This is a massive project and the university is specializing in... Desertification, Food and fresh water availibility, fuel efficiencies and renewable energy....
I think things are coming to a close faster than anyone wants to admit and the Chinese/Indian conundrum is just way too much for this infrastructure to handle.... I was just kidding about the whole end of civilization thing BTW... I think everything will be fine... the food thing is overblown.... plenty of food and fuel around... everybody will act accordingly when the first price shocks hit and corporations start shutting down stores.... Of course everyone just needs to look in the want ads for great jobs that will be available in the Green Sector.... I think I will be a Carbon Re-sequestration technician.... Either that or work for Kellogg, Brown & Root as a Food Transport Security Specialist.

[static66]

Thanks Jbeck, I appreciate your point of view.... you are certainly one of the disciplined ones who understands saving for your future... I did not open the link to the USA Today.... I really think if Fox news had a print version they would call it USA Today. Anyway, I think that you think that this is the ceiling for energy prices and the subprime/credit issue is either peaked or on it's downturn.... I humbly (as an armchair economist) disagree, I think that this is just the start of the roller coaster ride... you know, when you get in the car and get strapped in.... the car moves up the first hill very, very slowly... envision that as our energy prices and food prices going up.... then we get to the top where even you as a super spendthrift are taken out of the game.... and then of course we get to go down.... faster than you thought....
Eyes wide with shock at how fast things can degenerate. We will see how fast this all happens... I don't think we are in disagreement that it is in fact Happening... right? I mean why else would be wasting our time on this site?? My thought is that you would be taking all of that money that you saved and you would be buying gold or Transportation stocks... I suspect it is in some 401(k) plans and/or IRA losing value by the second right now.