[deMolay]

This is always a good re-read. http://www.survivingpeakoil.com/article ... et_lessons

[static66]

We will not be in a good way coming out of the "Holiday Shopping Season" I expect Home Depot and most of the big box stores to announce layoffs and store closings in February and March... This parried with the ARM re-sets in February and March being the absolute peak of the entire Subprime crisis... March at 110billion.... the banks will then start their contraction and announce their own wave of layoffs and branch closings.... April will come in like a lion... a lion with its teeth bared and snarling... Gas prices at $4 a gallon and lines at the supermarket and food distribution centers.... and then... collapse in earnest as all of the other economies de-couple from the dollar and China announces its wholesale inventory dump of US treasuries..... ahhhh.. spring, a time for renewal. Make sure you plant enough to get through winter of 09 people.

[roccman]

... collapse in earnest as all of the other economies de-couple from the dollar and China announces its wholesale inventory dump of US treasuries..... ahhhh.. spring, a time for renewal. Make sure you plant enough to get through winter of 09 people.

I think you are spot on.

The game appears to be over.

Last weeks down grading of senior AAA tranches by moody I believe was the accelerating event.

Hell we could even get a HIKE on Wednesday...won't that be fun.

[Angry_Chimp]

We will not be in a good way coming out of the "Holiday Shopping Season" I expect Home Depot and most of the big box stores to announce layoffs and store closings in February and March... This parried with the ARM re-sets in February and March being the absolute peak of the entire Subprime crisis... March at 110billion.... the banks will then start their contraction and announce their own wave of layoffs and branch closings.... April will come in like a lion... a lion with its teeth bared and snarling... Gas prices at $4 a gallon and lines at the supermarket and food distribution centers.... and then... collapse in earnest as all of the other economies de-couple from the dollar and China announces its wholesale inventory dump of US treasuries..... ahhhh.. spring, a time for renewal. Make sure you plant enough to get through winter of 09 people.

Ahh, "the glass is half full" type.

[Ludi]

I think you are spot on.

The game appears to be over.

Last weeks down grading of senior AAA tranches by moody I believe was the accelerating event.

Hell we could even get a HIKE on Wednesday...won't that be fun.

So you see that as a serious and reasonable prediction of near-future events?

[roccman]

I think you are spot on.

The game appears to be over.

Last weeks down grading of senior AAA tranches by moody I believe was the accelerating event.

Hell we could even get a HIKE on Wednesday...won't that be fun.

So you see that as a serious and reasonable prediction of near-future events?

Hell yeah...

These senior tranches are held by the originator...THEY ARE NOT SOLD ON THE OPEN MARKET...they are like gold.

For Moody to down grade JPM's ST from AAA++ to C (one away from D or default)...means EVERYTHING below these is junk...

Like pension funds...like money markets...

This is HUGE...!!

It really is only a matter of days or weeks...MAYBE a few months before the snowballl gains serious speed and energy...heck it may even be happening today.

[Ludi]

See, I don't understand economics/finances, so I don't know what's going on. But then, I also know you are an ultra-mega-doomer, so, I just don't know how seriously to take it....

[roccman]

See, I don't understand economics/finances, so I don't know what's going on. But then, I also know you are an ultra-mega-doomer, so, I just don't know how seriously to take it....

Ludi - go watch Karl's vid I just posted.

I like the ultra mega doomer (UMD) tag...

Hey Shannymara - can I have this as a title?...like the new avatar...I am guessing you as a child...same eyes

[deMolay]

Ludi what he is saying is true. The jig is up. Get out of debt as quickly as possible. If you cannot, liquidate as much as possible and invest in barter goods, that are portable. Have a fall back plan. I have read that the actual amount in the Derivatives market, is anywhere from 300 Trillion to 700 Trillion and that is over shadowing the Subprime fiasco. I have been watching and preparing for 20 years now. And I really don't see how the charade can go much beyond 6 months more. No matter which sector you look at, the game is up. Manufacturing is moving to China and India at an incredible pace. It will not return unless the US dollar reaches 50 to 75 cents value. By that time the snowball will be rolling pretty good. It is not complicated, but in a roundabout way this was brought on by Reagan. When he brought down the Iron Curtain, this unleashed about 2B plus people who have quickly adapted to capitalism and become our competitors. Up until then under the communist system they could not compete. All that was unleashed when the curtain came down. China alone has 700m workers who work for 50 cents US per day. Without any labour laws or rules, no enviromental laws or rules it is wide open unbridled capitalism. And we cannot compete with that scale. The housing bubble is just one aspect, just one facet of the bubble. When Bill Clinton allowed the high tech transfers to China, that accelerated the slide. Even the Japanese cannot compete, they are moving their manufacturing there as well. It is bigger than mfg. tho, they are also supplying much of our food. This will be the greatest Deflation in the history of the world. The era of the gunship will return. I think the crash will come by spring, grow the best garden you can, and preserve as much as you can. All the best.

[Ludi]

I thought "Karl" sounded pretty optimistic saying we would end up in Medicare nursing homes. I expect to die under a tree, if I'm lucky!

So, should I have wads of cash money on hand with which to buy groceries? I don't think the store will take eggs or hoe handles, etc.


Seriously, what is one to do, and how quickly?

[deMolay]

Here is a good site to explain derivatives. Think of it like this the total wealth of the whole planet, in trade and real estate is about 30Trillion dollars. This bubble we face now is about 700Trillion. When you think of barter think necessities first. Ammo, medicine, clean water, fuel, salt, seeds, needed skills and crafts. For example, when doing research on the last depression, I learned that bi-cycles, not the fancy ones, and second hand stores thrived. http://www.survivalblog.com/derivatives.html

[deMolay]

The most important asset that you and I can possess is a quick mind and the ability to adapt and survive.

[Revi]

Who knows what will be useful in the future? I am betting on cast iron pots. We just got a dutch oven and a beanpot that works on the wood stove. Stone soup is the food of the future. I think we will have to get together with others and pool our meagre resources. We all have to cut wood together, make meals together and work together in season to get food in.

Right now we're into hunting. I'm pretty sure that whoever gets a deer will share some of it. It's really great to have a bunch of friends who are into forming some semblance of community. We all made apple and pear cider a couple of weeks ago. It was like the ambrosia of the gods! I still have a couple of gallons frozen for later in the winter.

[roccman]

I thought "Karl" sounded pretty optimistic saying we would end up in Medicare nursing homes. I expect to die under a tree, if I'm lucky!

So, should I have wads of cash money on hand with which to buy groceries? I don't think the store will take eggs or hoe handles, etc.


Seriously, what is one to do, and how quickly?

Ludi - if you have not already:

1) got to www.beprepared.com and get 1 year supply of legumes

here $239.00 plus ship

2) buy 2 books:

Where there is no dentist

Where there is no doctor

3) buy a 38 special on backpage.com here's phoenix site:

S & W 64-2 stainless 38 special, pin barrel, like new condition,

buy ammo here - free ship

4) Be sure you have good boots and a jacket.

That is all.

[deMolay]

This is one of the best medical sites I have come accross. You can download those books here for free and print them. http://www.hesperian.org/publications_download.php

[roccman]

This is one of the best medical sites I have come accross. You can download those books here for free and print them. http://www.hesperian.org/publications_download.php

Thanks for the link bro!!

[jbeckton]

I'm merely arguing that the electrical grid is not nearly as oil dependent as people on this board believe it is.

Correctomondo!

Considering the amount of coal one diesel train can deliver, it will be one of the most profitable uses for diesel. Also, we have not forgotten how to make a steam engine, we can build them again. And lastly, look at the geography of a coal plant and tell me what you see? A nice river flowing by! The fact is that most coal plants were built in locations that were accessible by both rail and river and that fact cannot be overlooked.

[static66]

A couple of things from Dmitri Orlov's "Post Soviet Lessons for a Post American Century" You cannot discount the power of Cigarettes and alchohol in a barter situation.... I don't care what anyone says, A couple of cases of cheap vodka and or whisky and a case (not a carton) of American spirits will go a long way in a barter deal.... Ammo and a couple of good tactical guns will be very useful as well. I picked up my Vodka and cigs lastr week from a wholesale distributor and have also bought a full pallet of Ramen noodles which I think are fantastic for shelf life and absolutely fill you up! Tuna and mayo, I have foodservice pack pasta and large cans of tomato products... Growing and brewing will be on the agenda for next spring.... This is really it people.... there is no magic formula to be announced to alleviate the massive financial pressure... Again, from Dmitri Orlov's essay~
"During the pre-perestroika "stagnation" period, due to the chronic underperformance of the economy, coupled with record levels of military expenditure, trade deficit, and foriegn debt, it became increasingly difficult for the average Russian middle-class family of three, with both parents working, to make ends meet."
Come on... does this sound at all familiar?

[jbeckton]

This thread is rich, I hope I can find it next spring and ask everyone how their Ramen noodles are holding up.

[Ludi]

roccman and deMolay, thank you for the advice and links.