THE Olduvai Thread (merged)

by **Licho** » Tue 23 Nov 2004, 23:07:35

Guest, I made mistake, energy consumption halved, not production (production actually risen up). Industrial energy consumption is the one that caused decline in total energy consumption. Yet despite the fact, that whole country now consumes 1/2 of what 15 years ago, GDP (=production) is on steady rise, and life conditions as well as ecology footprint are improving all the time. It's simply because of the fact, that industry in soviet era was concentrated on energy-intensive manufacturing for eastern block (machinery, weapons etc..). Now that crap is not produced anymore.

So olduvai theory doesn't work in all cases. Society might be producing "useless" crap that does not improve life conditions but is wasting huge ammounts of energy..

by **Licho** » Tue 23 Nov 2004, 23:32:45

Jato, there is enough renewable energy already in place to ensure 3rd world living conditions for everyone on this planet :-)

Even pre-industrial agriculture without machinery and fertilizers is able to feed 2 billions of people, and this will never go that far.

by **pkofsocal** » Wed 24 Nov 2004, 01:10:11

I am the 'Guest' who mentioned the sale of energy.

Licho:
> GDP (=production) is on steady rise, and life conditions as well as ecology footprint are improving all the time.
>It's simply because of the fact, that industry in soviet era was concentrated on energy-intensive manufacturing for eastern block (machinery, weapons etc..). Now that crap is not produced anymore.

That's very nice. But it's a one-time bonus. As Czechland gets richer, people would want more cars, right?

And where does the fuel to run the remaining industries come from? My guess is probably the same country which had ordered Czechland to make all these crap to begin with.

The Visegrad countries are neither large producers nor consumers of energy. Coal is the single abundant fossil fuel in the region, with only Poland and the Czech Republic having significant quantities. The Visegrad countries therefore import most of their crude oil and natural gas requirements, mainly from Russia. The exceptions are Poland
and Hungary, which met roughly 39% and 24% of their natural gas consumption demand with domestic sources in 2001

What happens if Russia decides to shut off the crude supply? AFAIK Russia's oil will peak within a few years.

>So olduvai theory doesn't work in all cases. Society might be producing "useless" crap that does not improve life conditions but is wasting huge ammounts of energy..

That's very nice. Except it's just a big respite which might buy some more time. The fundamentals don't change.

by **jato** » Wed 24 Nov 2004, 01:42:48

Jato, there is enough renewable energy already in place to ensure 3rd world living conditions for everyone on this planet

Cool. Where can I explore this idea?

But wait...3rd world living conditions...does this mean the end of industrial society? What types of living conditions do you foresee?

by **Licho** » Thu 25 Nov 2004, 06:38:58

And where does the fuel to run the remaining industries come from? My guess is probably the same country which had ordered Czechland to make all these crap to begin with.

What do you mean? Energy generation is mostly nuclear, uranium is from Russia (as a Russian debt repayment), local resoureces mined out already, coal is indigenous and it's use is in decline. But thanks to decline of consumption, only 1/2 of capacity is used and electricity is exported.
Major industry here is still energy intensive, like steel, heavy machinery and cars production. So it's not energy offset by imports from other countries. (If it was high value-low energy intensive industry, like IT, it would explain drop in energy consumption, but it is not.)

That's very nice. But it's a one-time bonus. As Czechland gets richer, people would want more cars, right?

What happens if Russia decides to shut off the crude supply? AFAIK Russia's oil will peak within a few years.

It is one time bonus, but it doesnt matter, fact is, that energy used by population and industry here decreased over last one and half decade. In Olduvai theory, only energy consumption (availibility of energy) per capita is important. And this number is falling here, while living conditions are improving. This just shows, that olduvai theory cannot be taken seriously.
If Russia suddenly stops oil exports here, it would be a problem, but this is not related to odluvai theory.

If there is room for society, to cut energy consumption by 1/2 or even 1/4 as some suggest, while still maintaining similar living conditions, it means that Olduvai theory is not valid, and society can use renewable sources to provide energy.

by **0mar** » Thu 25 Nov 2004, 06:44:40

Didn't russia already peak in 1987 or so?

by **Licho** » Thu 25 Nov 2004, 06:45:57

Jato, I used info about per capita energy consumption from http://earthtrends.wri.org/text/energy-resources/variable-351.html

It shows that per capita energy consumption of USA is 10x higher than per capita energy consumption of developing countries. Considering all hydro+other renewables production in USA, you have renewable energy already in place to provide standard much better than is current standard of developing countries..

by **jato** » Thu 25 Nov 2004, 07:10:57

Thank you Licho.

Of course there are the problems of transportation energy, energy needed for economic growth, energy needed for food & water production/transportation & 300 million people not wanting to give up their cushy lifestyle to live like the 3rd world.

Sorry, I am in the Jay Hanson/Montequest camp. We are going to crash hard! But keep trying to sway me, I am listening.

by **Licho** » Thu 25 Nov 2004, 07:17:04

Yes, there will be massive problems, but not a starvation.

Take a look at this profile of USA:
http://earthtrends.wri.org/pdf_library/country_profiles/Ene_cou_840.pdf

It shows, that your renewables provide 7x more energy than is consumed by aggriculture..

So while transportation and industry might be scaled back, it wont mean starvation. It could also mean healthier and better life style. If you produce high-tech consumer electronics instead of SUV, you are using miniscule ammount ofl energy per value of goods. (My guess is it's going to be about 1/10, but didnt check real numbers). Economic growth is still possible in conditions of declining energy.. Just expect to loose some goods/services in favor of others..

by **pkofsocal** » Fri 26 Nov 2004, 03:36:58

>Energy generation is mostly nuclear, uranium is from Russia (as a Russian debt repayment),

And we need O-I-L to extract that uranium, right?

> local resoureces mined out already, coal is indigenous and it's use is in decline. But thanks to decline of consumption, only 1/2 of capacity is used and electricity is exported.

For now. yes.

It is possible for some locales to enjoy temporary advantage in a PO environment. Unfortunately soon your more powerful neighbors will want you to 'share' that.

It's history. Remember Sudetenland, or whatever it's called now in Czech language?

>It is one time bonus, but it doesnt matter,

It matters, like a one time lottery.

>fact is, that energy used by population and industry here decreased over last one and half decade. In Olduvai theory, only energy consumption (availibility of energy) per capita is important. And this number is falling here, while living conditions are improving. This just shows, that olduvai theory cannot be taken seriously.

If Czechland is an autarky, or a closed system, your theory will suffice. But Czechland is an open country, like all other countries in Europe.

Whatever Czechland may do, it cannot remain unaffected by events outside of it.

Sooner or later the uranium imports from Russia will stop. And how do you rebuild the nuclear plants after their life ends? You would need P-E-T-R-O-L-E-U-M.

>If Russia suddenly stops oil exports here, it would be a problem, but this is not related to odluvai theory.

>If there is room for society, to cut energy consumption by 1/2 or even 1/4 as some suggest, while still maintaining similar living conditions, it means that Olduvai theory is not valid, and society can use renewable sources to provide energy

That's very nice. Except it's impossible to cut energy consumption by 1/2 or less and still maintain similar living conditions, because the financial institutions will collapse.

by **Licho** » Fri 26 Nov 2004, 07:49:41

Pkofsocal, you seem to be preoccupied with negative thinking and doom-desire.

I was talking about olduvai theory, beacause without doubt, it was broken in this whole region. And you seem to be talking "what might go wrong".

You don't need oil to extract uranium, why the well would you need oil??
Thousands of tons of uranium were mined here without any oil...

I could present similary distorted view of reality like you do, but in the opposite direction. For example:

- oil can be synthetised, during WW2 germans sythetised up to 1/2 of their liquid fuels
- you can produce biodiesel

If you have excess energy, It does not matter in which form it is, because you can use that excess energy to produce petroleum substitutes that work with current machines (+small modifications), and later, rebuild infrastrucutre that uses for example hydrogen as energy carrier.
Energy decline is going to be below 1.0% annualy (counting with maximum predicted 3% oil decline and current share of oil as primary energy source). Such decline can be easilly covered with construction of few new powerplants, greater efficiency etc.
There is no need to worry at all..

by **pkofsocal** » Fri 26 Nov 2004, 11:30:18

>I was talking about olduvai theory, beacause without doubt, it was broken in this whole region. And you seem to be talking "what might go wrong".

Olduvai theory is GLOBAL, not local. I don't think you understand that.

>You don't need oil to extract uranium, why the well would you need oil??
Thousands of tons of uranium were mined here without any oil...

They were Mined, and used up. Replacement sources come from less favorable locales and need o-i-l.

>- oil can be synthetised, during WW2 germans sythetised up to 1/2 of their liquid fuels

And did they win the war? NO! All these synthetic oils were no match for the natural oil the Allies could bring up!

>- you can produce biodiesel

And how will you build the biodiesel plants? Coal? Unfortunately that's running out, too.

>If you have excess energy, It does not matter in which form it is, because you can use that excess energy to produce petroleum substitutes that work with current machines (+small modifications),

The 'small' modifications also need E-N-E-R-G-Y.

> and later, rebuild infrastrucutre that uses for example hydrogen as energy carrier.

Hydrogen leaks from almost everything. And you have to bring and process hydrogen from somewhere else. To do so, you need - O-I-L.

>Energy decline is going to be below 1.0% annualy (counting with maximum predicted 3% oil decline and current share of oil as primary energy source). Such decline can be easilly covered with construction of few new powerplants, greater efficiency etc.

>There is no need to worry at all..

Have you ever heard about "Exponential Growth"?

by **Blaster** » Fri 26 Nov 2004, 23:01:21

We should all get together for the Woodward Dream Cruise next August. Its held in the Detroit Michigan area. Its three days of tire burning fuel guzzling fun. Classic and not so classic cars burning up the streets and sucking fuel like the is no tomorrow! If you want to see fuel being consumed this is the place. Bring asprin for the fume induced headaches. Cheers

by **Guest** » Tue 14 Dec 2004, 14:49:15

The odulvai theory does not necessarily relate to electricity. The same type of corrolation may be made to food, oil, clothes,... ect...

The main factor driving the odulvai curve is human population. You see, if human population was stable, then the demand of oil would be stable, and the peak oil curve would be very different. (developping countries aside of course, this statement is superficial and assumes that a stable population also has a stable economy that niether grows nor shrinks)

The fact of the matter is, peak oil is just a single factor of the bigger problem of overppulation.

the question thus becomes, is oil supply going to be the triggering factor that forces the human population to shrink back? That's not easy to awnser.

by **Schneider** » Tue 14 Dec 2004, 16:53:25

Anonymous wrote:while ontario was hit in the 2003 blackout (we recently deregulated and are increasingly reliant on imports form the US) quebec and manitoba, which are to my knowledge independent electrical entitites under provincial (vs open-market) control and tapping semi-renewable energy, weren't. parts of new york that bought power from quebec were also spared.

It is because the Americans didn't trust (how ironic) our power grid,so they asked we had a buffer between the US/Ontario grid and Quebec. It is why,we Quebecois, didn't have any blackout

Viper wrote:
i'm wondering exactly how he makes claims that worldwide blackouts will hit many nations will little or no reliance on natural gas or oil or massive interlinked power grids.

Not that I fully agree with his assesment, but to answer this question: Because if we(USA) don't have enough, but we know you do, we'll come up there and take it from you.

Be sure of one thing : you will pay the high cost :twisted:

! There is something America should NEVER forget..We are only at few hours by car

! Not like Irak where theses poors bastards cannot reach you. Anyway,i really hope it will not happen

by **pup55** » Tue 14 Dec 2004, 18:28:09

http://peakoil.com/fortopic3218.html

by **Ayoob_Reloaded** » Thu 24 Feb 2005, 02:21:01

In the very beginning of history, 1945, oil was abundant and cheap. We were on our way back from the war [smilie=qtank.gif]

and everybody had good jobs, and the baby boom was on the way. [smilie=XXspermy.gif]

We were awash in cheap oil, so GE, Standard Oil, and Firestone conspired to destroy the electric trains that connected the early suburbs and replaced that sensible transportation method with... the Automobile!
[smilie=car3.gif]

Well, traffic ended up a little congested, but that's not such a big deal. Anyway, the US built a car culture and created an infrastructure that was based on the availability of a finite resource. Logically, we'd have to transition to something else at some point, but there was so much that we didn't really think about it. Besides, there was money to be made.

[smilie=zicon_elephant.gif]

Some time near the end of recorded history, 2005, a small band of truthseeking corruption-free and totally unbiased people met on the web [smilie=happy8.gif]

and realized the world was about to come to an end [smilie=bs.gif]

so they posted messages to each other for a while until everyone was too broke to have an internet connection [smilie=adios.gif]

and then technology saved us all at the last minute with a perpetual motion machine that emitted photons into buckeytubes, [smilie=director2.gif]

which simultaneously solved the energy problem and convinced everyone in the whole world to reduce our population to a sustainable level [smilie=hippy2.gif]