[Oilgood]

Whitecrab, I agree that a static economy is the key.
One thing that could be done to limit population growth (it would only be partially helpful) is forbidding men from leaving their families and starting new families with other women when they already have children in their first family that need to be taken care of.

[Guest]

The (economic) problem with child permits is that the rich would be able to buy the most child bearing permits, but rich people also have much larger ecological footprints.

I do not see that as an issue. The present market however does not fully account for that footprint, so "the rich" do more damage.

To get an idea about accounting for the footprint look up Odum, emergy, florida, and mangrove forest in your favorite search engine.

[gg3]

This is a very intresting topic, and similar to my item about extraction of resources over the time-domain, vs the space-domain, vs the information-domain.

In essence it comes down to two questions: How does society factor the input of future generations into present decisions; and a more specific question, how can the the present economy obtain price signals from the future economy?

I have a wild intuitive idea here, which is somewhat utopian and therefore offered more as a thought-experiment. It is hardly intended as a complete solution, only as a feedback mechanism that could be put into place.

The nearest direct information we have about the interests of future generations comes from our own children, at the age where they are verbally capable but have not yet become enculturated to the point where their will has been bent. And, there is a natural and special affinity between young children and their grandparents; or to generalize, between young children and elders.

Envision the potential for a council or similar entity that is composed of children between ages 5 (yes, five) and 18, and grandparents in the ages of 70 and up. The task of the elders is to elucidate the intentions of the younger children, who will become adults in a couple of decades, and will become elders themselves in six or more decades. The task of the council is to promulgate reports and recommendations, perhaps even including proposed legislation, that will address the issues of future generations.

It's not clear how this would be fitted into our systems of constitutional government. However, it could serve a role similar to that of councils of elders in tribal societies and various secular and sacred institutions in industrial societies.

The council's discussions and reports would be broadcast over dedicated channels (on cable and satellite television and radio services) and made available over dedicated internet sites. At first they might hardly be noticed, but quickly enough, they would be heard and read by enough people as to start making a difference in public opinion.

An obvious problem remains to be solved, of how to go about choosing the members of this council. Perhaps they could be drawn by lottery from a pool of volunteers, thereby minimizing the risks of self-promotion beyond the level of submitting one's name.

Another obvious problem is the legalities of parents submitting their own children to this process. However, if council business were conducted primarily via teleconference, those children would never need to leave their own homes, until they were of the age to participate from school.

As teenagers they (those who are presently serving) could perhaps volunteer and be chosen by lottery, to spend a summer engaged in council business at some central meeting point. To assure that kids could participate regardless of economic means, they would be provided with proper accommodations at no cost, and paid an amount equivalent to what an average kid of their age earns working over the summer months.

Replacement of members would occur on a rolling basis: perhaps each person serving a maximum of five years, with new members added as existing ones reach the end of their terms, the age of adulthood, or leave due to age-related illness, disability, or death.


It would be really interesting to try this and see what happens. For now, at least to run the scenario and consider the potential outcomes with an open mind.

[Whitecrab]

The (economic) problem with child permits is that the rich would be able to buy the most child bearing permits, but rich people also have much larger ecological footprints.

If we put a further absolute cap per person, it would solve this problem. (Trade as much as you want up to 3.0 children).


Oooh boy, I'd love to see the 1/2 child permit being bet in poker games.

[smiley]

Nice roundup of the current oil situation by Platts. It gives an overview of the events that led to the high oil prices.

Doesn't say anything about peakoil, but discusses the decline in lightsweet production: link

[smiley]

Forgot to check the title for typos. Mondays

[khebab]

This is a very interesting document. There are two slides on speculation (slides 16 and 17) where they are basically saying that speculation has been blamed for the recent prices but that it is not justified. In particular, the number of long term contracts is down up to 95% since 2003!

I'm not a trader, I don't know exactly what they mean by contract.

[Guest]

One of the predictions of events that would happen around the peak (Campbell I believe), is that the oil futures market would transition into contango, where the later months are priced higher than the earlier, front months, like the gold futures market presently is).

It looks like that may be beginning to happen, and the front 3 of 4 months now seem to be in contango.

NYMEX Crude Oil Futures, Contract Month Pricing

But since I am not an expert in such matters, would others care to give their opinion or analysis? I have not noticed this pricing structure before. Perhaps, though, it occurs seasonally as March may be expected to be higher than February?

[pip]

Refineries go to max crude charge during the summer driving season. Fall and winter are used for maintanence. Nobody cuts crude charge during summer to work on anything that will make it until fall.

[OilsNotWell]

It looks like current contango is now 5 months out, and the gap has widened...

2/03/05 Session 19:45:21

March 2005 46.62
April 2005 47.05
May 2005 47.24
June 2005 47.19
July 2005 46.91
August 2005 46.64
September 2005 46.36


Also, see this article:

SouthAsianMediaNet

[quote]Opec concerned about inventeries
Saturday, January 29,2005
What concerns Opec ministers is that the futures market is currently in a contango. This arises when prices for the second and third months are higher than the nearby month. This encourages refiners to hold and increase crude inventories, as they can buy crude cheaper today and get a higher price later. Mr Stuart said although the contango is very small, the Nymex WTI price for April is six cents above the front-month March price, and May WTI is 15 cents above April. “It is not too big to worry Opec, but they would not want this to get any wider,â€

[BabyPeanut]

http://www.investorwords.com/1067/contango.html

contango
A condition in which distant delivery prices for futures exceed spot prices, often due to the costs of storing and insuring the underlying commodity. opposite of backwardation.

[OilsNotWell]

At this moment, a slight contango is now EIGHT months out.

Again, is this normal?

I don't think so. In my opinion, even though this may not be well-publicized, it is becoming a significant development in the pricing of oil futures. The consolidation of prices MAY BE setting the stage for a potentially volatile and e$plosive price rise...

Others with far more experience in the markets, please, feel free to disagree or enlighten..

[bruin]

I've seen many claims on this board for a black market for oil once things get rough, whether by government intervention, favoritism by providers, or any other controlled environment.

I'd like to see a thread spelling out exactly how a black market in oil would work. I don't believe significant amounts of oil is going to be sold through a black market.

Do you vision fleets of illegal gas trucks roaming the countryside selling gas on the black market? Or maybe a black market tanker will be delivering a load of oil to some illegal port. And who is going to refine this black market oil?

The sheer volume of oil used is going to prohibit any substantial black market supply. Sure, some guy will load up his truck with gas from the local criminal but that's not going to change the overall picture of things.

[Liamj]

Agree it wont change the overall picture, but it could make local situations very interesting.

In a slow decline scenario with govt, mil & agriculture the only guaranteed recipients of rationed/unavailable fuel, for specified/controlled uses, anyone ELSE who obtains easy transport (to focus on that use) will have a major advantage.
E.g. Crime/theft - how far can you chase someone for your 10 solar panels on a bike & when they're in a truck? How would you get the panels back home anyway? Whats to stop them reversing over you, or ramraiding yr house? Will police have fuel to chase them?
E.g. Chaotic use - it might be in many peoples interest for x over the hill to have fuel to sell off-ration. Has anyone seen a centralised command-control economy work to everyones best interest? theres sure to be errors, miscalculations, shortfalls where most needed and waste in favoured sectors. A limited black market might well be in EVERYONES interests.

Tangentially, here in Aus the govts Liquid Fuel Emergency Act/National Oil Supply Emergency Commitee currently sez fuel rations will be allocated (in the event of 'an interruption to supply') on the basis of existing use. A progressive pricing and tradable rights system would be much more likely to encourage conservation & innovation, and incidentally defuse blackmarket pressure.

[pip]

I guess with the black market oil, you'll need a black market refinery too.

[NeoPeasant]

I'll just go fill up at the corner station with my ration coupons, drive home, siphon it out and sell it to my neighbors at a big markup. Then I'll ride my bike or walk like I do now.

[Jack]

I'd like to see a thread spelling out exactly how a black market in oil would work. I don't believe significant amounts of oil is going to work.

Now let's see....if one is involved in the black market, one is in violation of the law, right? So if one were to know (not that I do, of course) of black market methods, why would one tell others how to detect or prevent such a market?

[Specop_007]

I guess with the black market oil, you'll need a black market refinery too.

Just roll out Pa's still.

[pip]

You'll need Pa's Model T too. The gasoline you can distill out of crude is only about 60 octane.

[Whitecrab]

I see what you're getting at about the difficulties of a "black market refiner" but perhaps it could be done at the international level. Thieves hit some kind of storage depot, ship the crude to country X. Country X pays them back in cash/food/whatever, and refined fuel for their ship.