Cashmere wrote:3aidlillahi wrote:me wrote:At 8% decline rate starting about now, we are at about 40% of today's gasoline at the time they want to implement this.
And at a gazillion% decline rate, we'll run out of production in a few hours! Oh no!
Point?
That's quite an assumption that you make that is completely disconnected from reality. Would you care to explain why you think that we're going to be facing a continuous 8% decline rate AND that it will be starting now?
Um. What? Disconnected from reality? Why would you say that? It's entirely based on reality:
Mexico - 14% decline or more.
North Sea - about 14% or more.
Most newer fields, when they decline, decline at very high rates.
Saudi Arabia - large fields likely to go into very steep decline (or are already there) because of mismanagment, overproduction, water injection. 8% is my conservative estimate. My best estimate is above 10%. I think now, rather than later, because of all of the data available.
Oil 5x the price it was in '01, yet producers aren't producing more? The only reasonable explanation for that is . . . inability.
We used 10% of all URRs in GWB's first term. We used 10% of all URRs in GWB's second term. 8% is a conservative estimate for decline once we start declining. We are about to see the ball fall off the table that's it's been rolling on for some time. It'll be soon.
There is no evidence to indicate that we could realistically be headed towards a reduction in oil production within the next year at 8%, if at .1%!
All the evidence indicates that an aggressive decline will be underway soon. Certainly within 2 years, perhaps as early as yesterday.
Where did you get these numbers? The New England Journal of Bullshit? Same article as the one from which you pulled your "the automotive industry accounts for up to FIFTY percent of US GDP"?
Use whatever numbers you want.
If you want to quote me, quote away. But don't misquote me. Quote me, insult me, rip off "NEJM" variations, whatever. Those all just make you wrong. But don't misquote me - that just makes you a reactionary 21 year old. Hey, that's not a bad place to be - I was there for a year myself - but just make sure you're moving toward wisdom.
What I wrote was, if you cut energy use in half, you cut GDP in half. You'll live (maybe) to see it in your lifetime.
Have you ever considered that you may be wrong and that we won't have but a 5% decline rate which won't begin until 2015? Or some other numbers?
Of course I have. I've considered it, and I consider it substantially less likely than an 8% decline rate beginning imminently.
IMO,
maybe , we get to 2010 without seeing production fall off a cliff. There is no way we get to 2015 unless consumption is curtailed by aliens, thermonuclear war, or some other black swan event.
As for decline rate? My opinion is that it's going to be staggering.
Andrew Gould, the CEO of big oil services firm Schlumberger wrote:...the industry is dealing with a phenomenon that is exaggerated by the lack of investment over the past 18 years. This phenomenon is the decline rate for the older reservoirs that form the backbone of the world’s oil production, both in and out of OPEC. An accurate average decline rate is hard to estimate, but an overall figure of 8% is not an unreasonable assumption. The maintenance required to slow the rate of decline, and increase the overall recovery, is a key element of the supply picture going forward.
Or do you simply ignore EVERYTHING that doesn't allow you to become as doomerish as possible?
Um, kid, you really need to adjust your dosages. I have no reason whatsoever to be doomerish. I'd prefer not to be. Life is short and miserable enough.
In fact, I face the daily struggle to overcome my biological impulse to intentionally forget the evidence. I catch myself driving down the road wondering about whether some moron U.S. car company will actually put out a plus 40MPG car for under 15k in the next 12 months. I catch myself because it doesn't matter whether they do or they don't.
Don't let your dislike of me color your view of the facts.
8% is probably close to the best guess number of most Peak Oil experts. I think it's going to be more because I think the KSA is going to crash and burn very hard indeed. We'll know soon enough. Be patient. You're young.
One last thing. You seem smart enough, but you don't have your facts learned yet. If you understand Peak Oil, then you'll also understand that it's imminent, and you'll also understand that the decline rate will be dramatic - 5% would be a miracle.
I don't think you'll find more than one or two senior posters (and PO believer) on this web site who believe either:
1. the Peak has not occurred or will not occur within the next 3 years, OR
2. the decline rate will be less than 5%.
Don't be so reactionary kid.
