[mos6507]

Drilling the US for more oil may help the downward slide, but if it isn't backed up by mandatory, and I do mean mandatory, mitigation efforts, then all it is doing is kicking the can down the road a bit. The end result will be the same.

I think the natural order of things in the free market is to wring every last second out of the oil age and not to move towards renewables. So I expect no real difference in the collapse by drilling every last spot we can other than the exact date of TSHTF, which will still arrive soon enough for us to be concerned about it. There is illusion that sweeps over us that if we hit enough of a big new oil deposit that it will somehow last us so long that we can just forget about our problems and keep going like oil will never end.

So I think the Roscoe Bartlett proposal to tightly couple scraping the bottom of the barrel of US production with a push towards renewables is exactly what is needed.

[MonteQuest]

Domestic production peaked in '71. No more drilling will substantially change that. ANWAR is only 1 year supply of oil at current usage rates, the last I heard. Offshore is difficult to drill, hard to extract. Of course the oil would "go to the world market", given that we import a massive amount of oil.

ANWR: Let's run the numbers.

95% Probability 5.7 billion bbls = .5 mbpd
Mean (Expected)10.3 billion bbls = .9 mbpd
5% Probability 16.0 billion bbls = 1.9 mbpd

Seven to 12 years are estimated to be required from the time of approval to explore and develop ANWR to the first production of oil.

From first production to peak will take 3 to 4 more years where the production rate peaks at .9 million barrels per day.

7-12 years to explore and develop

2025 ANWR produces .9 mbpd of oil

By 2025, the US is projected to consume 30 mbpd at a 1.7% annual growth rate. ( that growth rate may not occur)

In 2025, .9 mbpd is 20% of domestic production but only 3% of US demand.

30 mbpd divided by 24 hours = 1.25mbph

EIA, best case scenario would reduce oil prices by $.30 to $.50 per barrel

Reduce oil imports from 68% to 65%. Still a 5% growth.

.9 mbpd is 72% of one daily hour US demand

Conclusion: With 30 mbpd of consumption, ANWR would power the US for 43 minutes/day, the rest would have to be imported. If we remain at 21 mbpd, then it would power the US for an hour each day.

Any new U.S. oil would simply lower the amount we import.

Correction:

Any new U.S. oil would simply lower the rate of growth of oil we import. No amount of drilling anywhere in the US will reduce our dependency upon imported oil.

We cannot drill our way out of this.

[BigTex]

I realized coming to this forum would be like going to a polygamist camp and trying to change their mindset. I guess you have to reread until it sinks in. I'll go sail off the edge of the world now....

You will find that changing peoples' minds here will require you to:

- make a good argument and
- defend it with good sources.

You have done neither.

(Welcome to the site.)

[TheDude]

Feel free to search the archives for more Helium-3 discussion, guadua. We've even crunched the numbers in detail; by this stage as you can see the notion of trying to mine on the moon is greeted with heaps of scorn, as it should be.

We do have a thread going on cold fusion, and have discussed things like the Polywell reactor. Real long shots, and even if they prove viable we're stuck with a liquid fuel transportation fleet for the time being.

Today I added a great quote from Colin Campbell to my sig which underscores the paucity of new discoveries to be had. Even a big field on the US offshore will just flatten out our decline, as Monte says; wouldn't that money be better spent on transitioning off such high use of energy in the first place? Unfortunately oil companies are basically one trick ponies. Monte didn't even bring up the prospect of producing nations seeing the writing on the wall and holding back on exports for economic gain.

[Cashmere]

Correction:

Any new U.S. oil would simply lower the rate of growth of oil we import. No amount of drilling anywhere in the US will reduce our dependency upon imported oil.

You know MQ, you are right, of course, and I actually thought about stating it this way - I didn't because I was responding to a Newb, and I thought I'd keep it as simple as possible.

[fletch_961]

By 2025, the US is projected to consume 30 mbpd at a 1.7% annual growth rate. ( that growth rate may not occur)

There has been an update Monty!!!

High oil prices and high Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards are projected to restrain the growth in future U.S. liquid fuels consumption. In the AEO2008 reference case, total U.S. liquid fuels consumption grows slowly from 20.7 million barrels per day in 2006 to 22.8 million barrels per day in 2030. Lower projected U.S. liquid fuels consumption results in ANWR oil production causing a larger percentage reduction in future oil and liquid product imports than was the case in prior ANWR analyses conducted by EIA.

EIA

Don't you love long-term projections.

I wonder what they will project our oil usage will be once they recognize peak-oil. A million barrel a day will be quite significant then.

[The_Virginian]

Look, I'm all for drilling of the florida coast.

To #ell with the greenie weenies who have blocked it for such a long time...

Look at all the good stuff found off BRAZIL"S Coast (33 GB in one find!!!) .

Of course as others pointed out, it's just a DELAY for the inevitable...

But a delay could be GOOD for developing a source of energy that might take us into the next era...

But untill we drill, we can't be sure exactly WHAT is there...or NOT...
IMHO, much of this "Evironmental" issues is just a plan to put this aside for a rainy day...problem is we need it NOW.

[MonteQuest]

High oil prices and high Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards are projected to restrain the growth in future U.S. liquid fuels consumption. In the AEO2008 reference case, total U.S. liquid fuels consumption grows slowly from 20.7 million barrels per day in 2006 to 22.8 million barrels per day in 2030. Lower projected U.S. liquid fuels consumption results in ANWR oil production causing a larger percentage reduction in future oil and liquid product imports than was the case in prior ANWR analyses conducted by EIA.

Ok. 22.8 mbpd divided by 24 hours =.95 mbph.

So, now ANWR will run the US for an hour each day in 2030 rather than 43 minutes.

We are saved!

And still net imports will not be reduced, only the rate of growth will be reduced.

We will still import more oil in 2030 than now.

[MonteQuest]

Look, I'm all for drilling of the florida coast.

To #ell with the greenie weenies who have blocked it for such a long time...

Look at all the good stuff found off BRAZIL"S Coast (33 GB in one find!!!) .

Of course as others pointed out, it's just a DELAY for the inevitable...

But a delay could be GOOD for developing a source of energy that might take us into the next era...

But untill we drill, we can't be sure exactly WHAT is there...or NOT...
IMHO, much of this "Evironmental" issues is just a plan to put this aside for a rainy day...problem is we need it NOW.

I guess you and Ben Stein are in the same camp.

And we need to drill on the continental shelf, even near where movie stars live. This must be done, on an emergency basis. If we keep acting as if the landscape were more important than human life, we will make ourselves the serfs of the oil producers and eventually reduce our country to poverty and anarchy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/25/business/25every.html

The landscape (i.e. the environment) is more important than human life. For without it, we don't exist.

Ignorance of basic biology/ecology has fostered some really scary positions from people who probably mean well.

[fletch_961]

Yes, Monty, the EIA, the same organizations that says that world consumption of liquids (energy) will near double by 2030. The same organization that just changed their projection by ~25%. Let's use their estimate to demonstate how small a million barrels a day is.

You do believe in peak oil don't ya?

Lets see, if $3 gas got them to change their projections by 8 mbpd I wonder what $10 gas will do?

Of course, if you think (don't believe in peak-oil) then you are right, a million barrels is peanuts.

So, feel free to quote the EIA.

1990-2030 (quadrillion btus)
Total World
Liquids 136.2 161.9 168.2 187.3 205.2 223.5 243.5 265.5 1.8%APR
Natural Gas 75.2 99.8 103.4 122.5 139.1 155.0 170.8 189.0 2.3%APR
Coal 89.4 105.6 114.5 138.2 156.8 177.2 198.5 220.6 2.6%APR
Nuclear 20.4 26.4 27.5 29.8 32.8 35.7 38.8 40.9 1.5%APR
Other 26.2 32.1 33.2 40.8 44.5 48.3 52.8 57.2 2.1%APR
Total 347.3 425.7 446.7 518.6 578.4 639.8 704.4 773.3 2.1%APR

No need to drill ANWR we'll have plenty according Monty and EIA.

We will still import more oil in 2030 than now.

[Dreamtwister]

I guess you and Ben Stein are in the same camp.

And we need to drill on the continental shelf, even near where movie stars live. This must be done, on an emergency basis. If we keep acting as if the landscape were more important than human life, we will make ourselves the serfs of the oil producers and eventually reduce our country to poverty and anarchy.

Wow, I always knew Ben Stein was a freaking retard, but damn! First it was his 'intelligent design' zealotry, and now this. What a muppet.

[KingM]

When the crisis gets severe enough, all those areas will become open to drilling. I think we'll be glad we saved them for when oil was expensive.

[vision-master]

When the crisis gets severe enough, all those areas will become open to drilling. I think we'll be glad we saved them for when oil was expensive.

When oil WAS expensive? Help me with this.........

[MonteQuest]

Yes, Monty, the EIA, the same organizations that says that world consumption of liquids (energy) will near double by 2030. The same organization that just changed their projection by ~25%. Let's use their estimate to demonstate how small a million barrels a day is.

You do believe in peak oil don't ya?

Lets see, if $3 gas got them to change their projections by 8 mbpd I wonder what $10 gas will do?

Of course, if you think (don't believe in peak-oil) then you are right, a million barrels is peanuts.

Using anyone's estimate of future oil use, a million barrels is still peanuts.

Using 21 mbpd (current consumption in US) it is peanuts. An hours worth of energy.

Drilling offshore and ANWR will not prevent or mitigate peak oil.

Too small a contribution and too long to develop and produce.

[fletch_961]

I guess the same could be said about pretty much every oil field left on the planet.

We should just cut the cord on any field not up to your standards.

[TheDude]

By JAD MOUAWAD and MARTIN FACKLER
Published: June 19, 2008

As President Bush calls for repealing a ban on drilling off most of the coast of the United States, a shortage of ships used for deep-water offshore drilling promises to impede any rapid turnaround in oil exploration and supply.

In recent years, this global shortage of drill-ships has created a critical bottleneck, frustrating energy company executives and constraining their ability to exploit known reserves or find new ones. Slow growth in oil supplies, at a time of soaring demand, has been a major factor in the spike of oil and gasoline prices.

Mr. Bush called on Congress Wednesday to end a longstanding federal ban on offshore drilling and open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil exploration, arguing that the steps were needed to lower gasoline prices and bolster national security. But even as oil trades at more than $135 a barrel — up from $68 a year ago — the world’s existing drill-ships are booked solid for the next five years. Some oil companies have been forced to postpone exploration while waiting for a drilling rig, executives and analysts said.

Demand is so high that shipbuilders, the biggest of whom are in Asia, have raised prices since last year by as much as $100 million a vessel to about half a billion dollars.

NY Times

[Plantagenet]

What the world needs now
Is drilling ships
Sweet drilling ships
Thats the only thing
That theres just
too little of.

[Ludi]

I thought it was environmentalists getting in the way of drilling.

[TheDude]

Lord, we don't need another Ghawar
There are fields and reservoirs, enough to pump.
There are tar sands, and shale oil
Enough to extract, oh Listen Bush
If you want to drive.

Click here if you're confused

[Homesteader]

I thought it was environmentalists getting in the way of drilling.