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PeakOil is You

THE Offshore Drilling Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Offshore EOR Crucial to Sustaining Future Oil Supply

Unread postby TheDude » Tue 06 May 2008, 03:07:02

Leanan wrote:Someone posted at TOD a few weeks ago, and said his company did a study of all the reasonably-sized oil wells produced in the past 15 years. On the whole, they came in later than scheduled, with a lower and quicker peak than predicted.


Would like to have a gander at that study while we're at it, Leanan didn't throw in a link unfortunately.

Our thread Saudi Production: Collecting the Data has some good discussion of EOR. Spending trillions on superstraws will just dig us a deeper grave, quicker. There are already bottlenecks to exploiting offshore fields as it is.

Offshore oil production will continue to grow strongly in the medium term and is expected to reach 35 million barrels per day (b/d) by 2015, up from 24 million b/d in 2005, he estimated.


This sounds like another demand will yield discovery fantasy.

Amusingly enough when you Google "EOR" you get this option:

See results for: winnie the pooh
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Short interview with Byron King from offshore oil conference

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 08 May 2008, 23:31:01

Full transcript

Coming up, how would your day-to-day life change if we were forced to buy oil at $200 a barrel? How high does gas go? What happens to your energy bills? Is there a solution? Yes, we have answers, coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BECK: Coming up, is America a nation in decline? Gosh, I hope not. Food and energy crisis around the world. New global powers like China and India. The constant threat of terrorists striking America again. Are these things that the greatest nation on the planet can survive? You bet. Find out in tonight`s "Real Story."

But first, airline executives have said that the business model for airlines really wasn`t built around $100-a-barrel oil. Well, that number today is a little more like $120 a barrel, and airlines are buckling as a result.

You`re reeling; you`re feeling it, too. Your family`s business model, if I will, didn`t plan on this either. You know, and it`s not just like you feel it when you`re filling up the tank or, you know, planning that summer vacation. It may not be too expensive. So it`s not just that. It`s the cost of everything you buy. It`s all going up.

Forget about, you know, the thousands of everyday products that are made with oil. Of course, they`re going to cost more than ever. But it`s also the goods and food that we need every day. Have you checked the price of cereal lately?

All of that stuff is trucked to us. Gas prices rise. The increased price of gas gets passed on to you. If you think it`s bad today, what happens if the latest prediction of oil trading at $200 a barrel comes true? Some say it`s going to be a reality that we`ll have to face as early as October.

What is life like then? When gas is $8 to $10 a gallon? How do you afford to get to work? How do you buy food? How do you heat your house or your parents or grandparents heat their house for winter? What fundamental changes could be right around the corner for all of us here on planet earth?

Byron King is an oil industry analyst and editor of "Outstanding Investments."

Byron, I don`t even know where to begin with you. Let me start, I guess, with food. According to the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization, up to 20 percent of our fossil fuel is spent growing food. The average dinner, most of it is shipped about 1,500 miles to our plate? What`s going to change if we have $200 a barrel gas?

BYRON KING, OIL INDUSTRY ANALYST: Well, you`re going to be localizing a lot more than you are now. That`s for sure, Glenn. The food system in this country was built around cheap energy, cheap transportation. Think about fertilizer, pesticide, herbicide, transportation, drying out the grain, processing the grain. It`s all a very energy-intensive process.

When you`re eating food, in a sense, you`re eating oil and gas.

BECK: OK. So hang on just a second. We just -- people will say, over in Europe, it`s already $10 a gallon. What`s the difference between us and Europe? Why can they do it and we`re going to really struggle?

KING: Well, Europe has built a different world. They have compact cities. They don`t have sprawling suburbs. They have great inner-city passenger rail. They`re used to driving smaller cars with more fuel- efficient engines.

Here in the United States, we built a country based on cheap energy, with sprawling suburbs, with you know, 40-mile commutes one way or the other. You know, the salmon that you buy in the supermarket was flown down from Alaska. It`s got more frequent flyer miles than you do.

I mean, these things are all going to be changing.

BECK: You`re saying now that, I mean, fresh fish is a thing of the past. You`re not going to have Alaskan king crab.

KING: Exactly. I mean, they fill Boeing 747s with tuna fish and fly them across the Pacific Ocean. That is not going to happen anymore.

BECK: OK. And while we`re on -- airlines, people have told me -- and I just have so much to talk to you about. We`ve only got about two minutes. I want to just take some of these up. I`ve been told airlines, it`s going to be more like 1955 than 2005.

KING: Exactly. I call it silent spring. We could see it as soon as next year. A lot of what passes for the airline industry today is going to be gone. The cheap seats are going to be gone.

What few airlines are still around, what few airplane are still around, are going to be packed to the gills with high-priced tickets flying hub cities. You know, New York to Los Angeles. Up to 70 percent of the cities in America, Glenn, are at risk of losing some or all of their scheduled airline service.

BECK: You say FedEx, UPS, that`s all going to change, because I mean, how much is it going to take to cost to ship a package.

But also, you say health care, we`ve got 40 million people they always quote that don`t have health care now. You`re saying companies are going to cut health care and shift it off to the government, because they`re going to have to pay for fuel.

KING: Exactly. Exactly, Glenn. In the last 10 and 15 years, the price of health care for employers has doubled and tripled. It`s just skyrocketing. The employers simply cannot afford skyrocketing health care and higher energy costs in terms of everything. Something`s got to give.

BECK: Byron, I`d love to have you back, because you`re at this -- this offshore tech conference in Houston. And may we have you back again and talk about what you`re learning there. Because we`re really a laughing stock there, aren`t we, in some ways?

KING: We really are, Glenn. Today, I had lunch with a guy from Malaysia, Columbia, Angola and Nigeria and Kuwait. This is who was sitting at my table for lunch. We were all talking about offshore exploration and production. This is a world industry. And the United States is falling behind because we won`t drill where we need to drill to make the oil come out.

BECK: Byron, love to have you back, because there`s just all sorts of stuff happening in foreign countries right off our shores we need to talk about. Thanks a lot.


Beck gets some of the most interesting interviews, why don't I see these people on more mainstream outlets?
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Re: Short interview with Byron King from offshore oil confer

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 08 May 2008, 23:44:18

Part two of the interview with Byron King;
FULL TRANSCRIPT

But first, welcome to "The Real Story."

Do you ever feel like we`re a runner, that this country is a marathon runner who started out really fast and now keeps getting passed by people that shouldn`t really be running at all?

You`re like, wait a minute. There goes China and India. I mean, I can`t even see the guy from Kenya anymore. Despite having the best technology, the best educational facilities, the best minds, the most wealth on the planet, we just cannot get out of our own way anymore.

You look at the oil and gas crisis, for example. We`re sitting here debating shortsighted plans like, well, should we give a temporary gas tax and reduce the price of gas over the summer? The rest of the world, meanwhile, is laughing at us as they run right by us with real solutions.

When in this country did we decide we were going to settle for second or third or 10th place. And I`ve got news for you, gang. This is a race that we`re going to finish and we`re not going to get a trophy just for participating.

I`m not an idiot. I know this is an election year. But the difference between me and the politicians is, I don`t think you`re an idiot, either.

You know, Hillary has got this idea now to make the oil companies pay the gas tax this summer. It will make gas more expensive.

It is like telling McDonald`s that they have to start paying the sales tax themselves, and then expecting that the Happy Meals are going to cost the same amount of money. They ain`t.

This June, I`m doing a nationwide live stage tour. It`s a comedy tour on politics this time around called Beck `08: Unelectable.

This is where I`m going to give the campaign speech that I think our candidates should, but they won`t, because they`re wussies. You know, it`s a campaign speech that involves the truth and common sense. It`s meant for comedy, but I`ve got news for you, it`s true.

On oil, it`s simple. Here it is.

It`s the only known substance on earth that can keep our economy functioning. And without it, we`re back into 1860. So, unless you want to ride horses and heat your house with a campfire, I don`t know, maybe we should start looking for a moon shot program to find more of it.

Meanwhile, the other countries aren`t waiting. Norway, Canada, chock full of tree huggers, and they both have allowed offshore drilling for years. China, Cuba, virtually drilling in our own backyard, right off the coast of Florida. Yet, 85 percent of our own coastal waters, along with ANWR, are completely off limits, because we might hurt the bucktooth beaver or a caribou or whatever the hell they`re complaining about now.

What is it going to take before you are finally pissed of enough to tell these environmentalists, you know what? Go make it with a tree all you want. I`m looking for oil. Tell these special interests groups enough is enough.

What`s it going to take, $4 a gallon gas? We`re there. Six-dollar-a- gallon gas? Ten-dollar-a-gallon gas? They say it`s coming.

We should be looking at how to reduce and sequester CO2. You bet.

We should look at how we can safely increase nuclear power plants. France can do it. We can`t?

We should make and look and explore ways to find -- ways to run our cars on air or water or less gas. All of those things should be done. But unless we start looking for more oil to bridge that technology gap, we`re going to be doing al those things by candlelight.

Ask yourself, America, who`s really running our government? Oh, it`s big oil. Really? Or is it the save the tree special interest groups?

Either way, the only one that should be in charge is you.

Byron King is an analyst and editor of Outstanding Investments.

Byron, I want to pick it up where we left off yesterday. You`re at an offshore tech conference in Houston which, surprisingly and completely unrelated, their economy in Houston is doing fine. We`re the laughing stock for the rest of the world because -- not because of our technology, but because of our policies, right?

BYRON KING, OUTSTANDING INVESTMENTS: That is true, Glenn. That`s exactly right.

Our technology to explore and to develop the offshore and the deep waters in the world is second to none. But policy-wise, the U.S. is a laughing stock within the world.

At the technical level, the rest of the world respects us. At the policy level, they don`t understand why we shoot ourselves in the foot every day.

The only place you can really drill in the United States offshore is offshore of Texas, Louisiana and a little bit of Alabama. And then there`s some old production in California, but there`s nothing new. We haven`t had anything in 35 years.

BECK: Yes.

Byron, we put Russia out of business back in the `80s. Then we taught them and the rest of the world how to get rich through capitalism.

Meanwhile, we`ve got this high and mighty attitude. Their oil people, they become president over in Russia. Our oil people, we drag their butts in front of Congress. Shell, if I`m not mistaken -- please tell me this story -- Shell actually built an oil facility up off the coast of Alaska, and yet they were delayed for a year because environmentalists started suing them.

KING: Well, that`s what happened just this past winter. The winter in Alaska is the drilling season, because that`s when you can haul your equipment over the ice.

It`s frozen. There is no environmental damage whatsoever. You`re hauling your stuff over ice, and in the spring it melts. So, you drill in the wintertime.

Well, Shell was all staged to drill north of the North Slope in Beaufort Sea, and they got sued in federal court and the Ninth Circuit shut them down. So basically you`ve lost a drilling season, and a lot of money and a lot of preparation, a lot of everything.

BECK: Yes.

KING: You have to plan this stuff years ahead of time. The logistics is incredible to do the work that you need to do to drill offshore.

BECK: See, here is the thing I don`t understand. Look, Norway -- how many tree-hugging caribou lovers are in Norway? And yet, they are drilling offshore like crazy, using our technology.

KING: There are more people living in metropolitan Houston than there are in all of Norway. But the Norwegians have -- they have it both ways.

They hug the trees, they have a good environment, and they drill like crazy in the North Sea, and in the far north, in the Baring Sea. I mean, you should see some of the equipment, some of the technology that these three million Norwegians have developed. It is world class, world-beating technology.

It gets back to what you said earlier about how, you know, we`re running the race but everybody is passing us. If we don`t develop our own technology in the U.S., if we don`t let our own industry, you know, work on our own offshore, I mean, now we have got the Norwegians coming over here teaching us how to do it.

I`m glad they`re here. They`re nice people. And the girls are incredibly good looking. But look, hey, this is America, and we need to do it our way.

BECK: Byron, thank you so much.
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Re: Short interview with Byron King from offshore oil confer

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 09 May 2008, 12:47:19

Tanada wrote: why don't I see these people on more mainstream outlets?


Because the mainstream media is largely staffed with liberal dems and mainly backs liberal dems, and people like Byron King aren't putting out the approved liberal dogma.

Check out the presidential campaign....both Clinton and Obama are campaigning and saying the high price of oil is due to speculators, and supply and demand doesn't control the price of oil, and they will bring down the price of oil by taxing big oil and by subsidizing corn ethanol. Recently PBS did a special on the high oil prices on the McNeil Lehrer news hour....they had guest after guest but they never had a person as knowledgable as Byron King.
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Why not drill offshore U.S.?

Unread postby satoram » Sun 25 May 2008, 13:17:31

HI all, I'm new to the forum but very interested in peak oil. I loved Kuntzler's book and have read other books addressing the subject as well as watched documentaries but compared with the very knowledgeable posters here I'm in over my head.

My question though is about offshore drilling. There seems to be the idea that the U.S. can ease the pain by simply drilling offshore in environmentally protected areas and of course in ANWR. I read letters to the editor of our local paper all the time by people pushing this idea. A letter today's paper stated that there were up 100 billion barrells of oil available in these off-limit areas.

I didn't have much luck getting an official estimate of these numbers and the letter today actually got the figure from NewsMax.com.

My question is if anyone has thoughts on this domestic drilling. Is this really a way to ease the painful transition to alternatives or just pie in the sky wishful thinking?

In fact, would this oil go to the world market anyway or would it be reserved for our own use?

I understand that there are environmental concerns as well but they argue that the drilling procedures are safe today and do not pose great risks.

So anyway, what do you think? Is this a way to go--although I'm sure it will take years. Do we need to go down this path?

Thoughts?

Thanks.
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Re: Why not drill offshore U.S.?

Unread postby Cashmere » Sun 25 May 2008, 13:27:29

Alright Satorum - welcome. Decent first post.

You wrote:
"My question is if anyone has thoughts on this domestic drilling. Is this really a way to ease the painful transition to alternatives or just pie in the sky wishful thinking? In fact, would this oil go to the world market anyway or would it be reserved for our own use?"


Domestic production peaked in '71. No more drilling will substantially change that. ANWAR is only 1 year supply of oil at current usage rates, the last I heard. Offshore is difficult to drill, hard to extract. Of course the oil would "go to the world market", given that we import a massive amount of oil. Any new U.S. oil would simply lower the amount we import.

In short, there is no substantial oil find left in the U.S..

Besides, on a more human note, we are idiots, universally and uniformly. We've blown through the best deposits of oil in about 100 years without ANY thought whatsoever about transitioning out of oil. None. We got a huge warning in the 70s oil shock, but as soon as that was forgotten, it was back to bloatmobiles. In fact, it got worse, as the embarrassment known as the "SUV" was invented. The SUV is going to be the historical poster child of stupid human behavior.

People are, as a group, amazingly dumb. The ONLY thing that will make people stop using oil will be lack of oil and higher prices.

If G-d himself came down and put a massive oil reserve right in the middle of Kansas, there would be no chance that the U.S. would say, "Great, now we've got 20 more years to work really hard to get off of oil."

Oh no.

Instead, people would drink the oil even harder and faster - continue the party as it were.

It's over.

OVER.
Last edited by Cashmere on Sun 25 May 2008, 13:34:30, edited 1 time in total.
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Re: Why not drill offshore U.S.?

Unread postby catbox » Sun 25 May 2008, 13:29:31

Maybe they need to get the equipment working again to do so?

http://www.jericsmith.com/images/consteq.jpg

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Re: Why not drill offshore U.S.?

Unread postby Cashmere » Sun 25 May 2008, 13:38:52

Image
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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Re: Why not drill offshore U.S.?

Unread postby guadua » Sun 25 May 2008, 13:57:06

The oil companies do not need anymore leases to drill for oil. They actually have plenty. Senator Bill Nelson recently stated in the Palm Beach Post yesterday that oil companies have leases to 33 million acres that they haven't even started drilling. I joined this site today because it was listed in an article I read in the newspaper. I'm amazed that so many people would actually believe the oil companies propaganda that we are running out of oil. It talks about the big upcoiming energy crisis. Has anyone heard of helium 3 ? Does anyone know why we are going back to the moon ? Read up on the subject and learn some facts, instead of spreading fear like the oil companies....
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Re: Why not drill offshore U.S.?

Unread postby Cashmere » Sun 25 May 2008, 14:38:54

some newb wrote:I'm amazed that so many people would actually believe the oil companies propaganda that we are running out of oil.


I'm amazed that some donkey shit eating newb has enough ignorance to jump into a web site with about 50,000 cumulative hours of research and proclaim, with no evidence in support, that running out of a limited natural resource is not a real thing, but rather the conspiracy of companies that make their money selling oil.

When you have gas and food riots and people are calling for Big Oil execs to be hung from the neck until dead, then what will you say?

That they are willing to risk nationalization?

Big Oil only controls about 10% of the world's oil - they are not responsible for us running out of oil, any more than farmers are responsible for starvation when famines occur.
Last edited by Cashmere on Sun 25 May 2008, 14:55:20, edited 1 time in total.
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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thanks for the replies

Unread postby satoram » Sun 25 May 2008, 14:48:17

I have a lot to learn regarding the subject and this looks like a great place to gather information.
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Re: thanks for the replies

Unread postby vision-master » Sun 25 May 2008, 14:59:08

satoram wrote:I have a lot to learn regarding the subject and this looks like a great place to gather information.


Forget the "tech" will save us. Maybe after we hit the bottom things will turn-around (decades)?? But, for now, it's too late, time to prepare.
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Re: Why not drill offshore U.S.?

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Sun 25 May 2008, 15:02:05

guadua wrote:Has anyone heard of helium 3 ?


/giggle

They are so cute when they are young and optimistic...
Moon gas may solve Earth's energy crisis

200Mt of lunar soil mined per year for 1 tonne of He3
5000Mt of lunar soil mined per year to supply US energy needs
20,000Mt of lunar soil mined per year to supply world energy needs

at a density of 2t/m3 for the soil this would equal 10,000m3 of soil required to be mined a year. Only 10 cubic kilometres!


Oh yeah, then there's that whole "need a fusion reactor" thing...
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Re: Why not drill offshore U.S.?

Unread postby guadua » Sun 25 May 2008, 15:34:26

Technology will change. Oil will be in the Smithsonian and the world will move on without the armageddon. I'm not going to start an argument about a false dilemma.

"When you have gas and food riots and people are calling for Big Oil execs to be hung from the neck until dead, then what will you say? "

I'll say people like you made others believe that the oil tap ran dry and this artificially inflated the price. First it was the war, the hurricanes, we can't tap our own oil fields. Now this is the best one I've heard yet, that we are running out of oil. Its called business and there feeding you rhetoric.

Why did you even bring nationalization into this ? I doubt that would ever happen, except for helium 3. The first to tap that source will hold a monopoly similar to the arabs control over oil. If the US gets control of helium 3, we could bargain with the arabs to receive cheaper oil. Everyone will want cheap electricity with no pollution.
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Re: Why not drill offshore U.S.?

Unread postby vision-master » Sun 25 May 2008, 15:38:56

Here we go. Have fun on the decline........ :razz:

FYI: Except gas to be 6 or 7 gal by next summer in the USA.
Cheers..........
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Re: Why not drill offshore U.S.?

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Sun 25 May 2008, 16:03:17

guadua wrote:cheap electricity


From helium 3? :lol: How's that work? I must have missed the scientific paper that mentioned a new method of generating ammonium perchlorate hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene and aluminum without burning fossil fuels...
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Re: Why not drill offshore U.S.?

Unread postby guadua » Sun 25 May 2008, 16:14:55

I realized coming to this forum would be like going to a polygamist camp and trying to change their mindset. I guess you have to reread until it sinks in. I'll go sail off the edge of the world now....
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