Cleantech research firm Pike Research forecasts growth in natural gas vehicles (NGV) on the road worldwide to 17 million units by 2015, up from 9.7 million in 2008. Pike Research forecasts that the NGV market will grow globally at a CAGR of 5.5% to reach just over 3 million vehicles (including conversions) by 2015.
The top five markets for NGVs are currently Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Iran, and India. Pike Research anticipates India will be the fastest-growing NGV market with a CAGR of 18.4% between 2008 and 2015. This rapid expansion will largely be due to the availability of refueling stations and the growth of government emissions rules in large cities in India
But you ask, unlike Evans-Pritchard, if these wells are expensive, what happens if either the price of gas falls or drilling declines precipitously (the former of course being a likely trigger for the latter)? Very good question, because US natural gas has now sunk to roughly half the price of the median break-even price of shale gas. In a nice moment of symmetry, gas drilling has also fallen by half. Of course, drilling can and will increase, but only when the economics justify it. For the moment, it looks like US gas production may decline by up to 14% this year (according to Bernstein Research), which would actually leave the US supply a few percent short, though it will be easy to fill gap with gas in storage or imports.
There are least two key missing points which make the article so misleading. The first is that shale gas flow rates are always much lower than conventional gas, which in practical terms makes it an expensive and unlikely replacement either for conventional gas or for oil. The second and far more profound omission is that the geology of gas shale varies widely across both America and the world, so that to extrapolate from the best - Texas Barnett shale - to the world is like saying we should be able to grow bananas in Norway just because they grow in India.
dissident wrote:Yet another bit of cornucopian propaganda falls apart. The pathological optimists should start tapping CH4 from where the sun don't shine.
Actually the fact your source gets paid by"cleantech" to do research seems to make them little more than pitchmen - they certainly aren't going to put out a release that says their client is full of bs.TheAntiDoomer wrote:How so? Because Mcgowanmc posted a blogger who said it wont work???? That dude told us ...
The key component of Pike Research’s analysis is primary research gained from phone and in-person interviews with industry leaders including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals.
mcgowanjm wrote:And where is India/Pakistan getting this gas?
Alice In Shale Gas Wonderland
mcgowanjm wrote:http://juliandarley.blogspot.com/
pstarr wrote:no. your argument is a joke. You believe in an infintite planet and endless oil. That is the dumbest thing I ever heard.
pstarr wrote:I wouldn't be so sure of this brand-new shale phenomena until is shows a track record.
OilFinder2 wrote:No shale gas wonderland. They have been making large natural gas discoveries off the coast of India lately. Been reporting it in the India thread, but not surprisingly, just about no one besides me has been paying attention.
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