[Cog]

You can avoid the S-400 missiles by destroying the launchers with low altitude terrain hugging cruise missiles. I'm also not convinced that the Russians can track the B-2 bomber with this missile system of theirs. In the first Gulf War, we used attack helicopters flying very low to attack radar and AA missile systems in Iraq. A tactic that was actually fairly brilliant.

But we aren't going to be doing any of that anyway so its irrelevant.

[Plantagenet]

Bullshit about war crimes prosecution being unavoidable [for Assad], Bush & Blair have been just fine, if landlocked perhaps.

???? I call BS on your BS.

Neither Bush nor Blair have been indicted by the UN War Crimes tribunal. There are no warrants for them, and no ongoing investigation.

Bush, Cameron get off scott free

In contrast, a UN inquiry found "massive evidence" that Assad has committed war crimes, and France has already sent a referral on Assad to the ICC in the Hague.

Syrian-officials-involved-war-crimes-bashar-al-assad-un-investigators

cheers!

[AgentR11]

You can avoid the S-400 missiles by destroying the launchers with low altitude terrain hugging cruise missiles. I'm also not convinced that the Russians can track the B-2 bomber with this missile system of theirs. In the first Gulf War, we used attack helicopters flying very low to attack radar and AA missile systems in Iraq. A tactic that was actually fairly brilliant.
But we aren't going to be doing any of that anyway so its irrelevant.

You're right, we won't try it, because Latakia is a layered defense setup, and one of those pieces of the layer is a ship that would put 16 anti-ship cruise missiles in the air in its death throws as it were. There's no low cost way to kill Latakia; and the whole Syria puzzle isn't worth a large expense even if you won.

I suspect, from what I've seen, they have the large S400 bubble, one or more inner S300 class systems, one with a LOT of ammo on the Moskva, and the fast and agile Panstirs at their airfield, and maybe the port. Pantstir can pickup and kill cruise missile, but like all such defense systems, the range of coverage is quite modest. I'm certain we could disassemble that A2AD, but doing so would eat a ton of cash, and there's just nothing there worth that kind of expenditure.

Let Putin waste his own money. What's not to like about bbq'ed jihadis getting their virgins with Putin paying the tab?

[Plantagenet]

Let Putin waste his own money. What's not to like about bbq'ed jihadis getting their virgins with Putin paying the tab?

Yup. Thats exactly right.

Since there is no strategy to win the war in Syria, there is no point in the US even being at war in Syria.

[SeaGypsy]

Blair & Bush & cohort are war criminals. Not prosecuted, free citizens. At home anyway.

[SeaGypsy]

Heaps bad stuff been going on around central Africa, virtually ignored. The crap we should be deleting dictators such as Assad, leaves a list of probably dozens of countries needing to be Lybianized.

[Sixstrings]

Let Putin waste his own money. What's not to like about bbq'ed jihadis getting their virgins with Putin paying the tab?

Yup. Thats exactly right.

Since there is no strategy to win the war in Syria, there is no point in the US even being at war in Syria.

The problem with "do nothing" is things like NATO member Turkey. So we're ultimately liable (and at risk). It's risky. Less risky if the US were just handling it. You can't be trusting our national security to whatever Erdogan gets into with Putin, ya know?

And there is a strategy to win the war in Syria, Bush laid it out in the citadel speech:

Jeb Bush Calls For US Ground Troops to Fight IS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3rq2sLzhIQ

He's the only candidate that has a plan.

[ennui2]

Just because Bush has "a" plan doesn't mean it's the "right" one.

Bush's candidacy also isn't doing too well lately.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/artic ... dorsements

[SeaGypsy]

The guy has zero chance of the oval office. We all know it is going to be vs Hillary & Bush hasn't the charisma to do it. Charisma is going to trump policy lol.

[onlooker]

The guy has zero chance of the oval office. We all know it is going to be vs Hillary & Bush hasn't the charisma to do it. Charisma is going to trump policy lol.

That is why I stated I do not bother to vote. No real choices.

[dissident]

Let Putin waste his own money. What's not to like about bbq'ed jihadis getting their virgins with Putin paying the tab?

You have a very distorted view of the costs. Russia is not the USA with its $9000.00 toilet seats (1980s prices) for military budgets. The cost of the Syria operation is tiny for Russia. It even deliberately chose a small initial deployment and after the response to the MetroJet investigation revealing it was a terrorist act (BTW, there are indications the bomb was placed on board in Erdo-turd-land and not in Egypt) with more aircraft and intensified bombing is still a small expense. Perhaps if Russia deployed 50,000 soldiers to Syria to fight a ground war then we would be talking about more serious expenses.

The most expensive part is the bombs and their prices do not resemble the US equivalents since the government pork culture has not developed yet. But you can see the contractors trying to emulate their US counterparts, but Putin the "tyrant" steps all over them.

[AgentR11]

The problem with "do nothing" is things like NATO member Turkey. So we're ultimately liable (and at risk). It's risky. Less risky if the US were just handling it. You can't be trusting our national security to whatever Erdogan gets into with Putin, ya know?

That's not exactly correct. NATO has no obligation if Turkey surges into Syria and Russia and Turkey start blowing up each others hardware mostly in Syria. That's just Turkey engaging in combat operations. If Putin launched a cruise missile strike into Ankara; then yeah, Art 5; but that's not whats going on; and isn't likely to happen. Also of note, an Art 5 doesn't grant the invoker control of forces; say there were a missile strike in Turkey, but we were suspicious about Turkey's report of the incident. We could respond to the Art 5 by placing some anti missile batteries around Turkish cities. Invoking Art 5 does not imply Turkey gets to order an invasion of Moscow.

And there is a strategy to win the war in Syria, Bush laid it out in the citadel speech:
Jeb Bush Calls For US Ground Troops to Fight IS
He's the only candidate that has a plan.

Great... at least with Iraq we got several thousand US forces killed for a prize that was worth something.
I'm not seeing much "worth something" with Syria. I see a lot of sand, and not much oil; a marginally profitable pipeline route that won't be secure for decades, and a port that ships nothing of interest to the EU/US...

[AgentR11]

Let Putin waste his own money. What's not to like about bbq'ed jihadis getting their virgins with Putin paying the tab?

You have a very distorted view of the costs.

I didn't say it was a prohibitive or difficult cost. If its one dollar it is still "waste his own money". Maybe its worth the cost in entertainment value? I dunno. Could be thought of as an advertising expense I guess. We'd been getting traction with the "Russian gear is junk" mantra for a while; maybe the demo is cost effective and will produce an improvement in arms sale revenue. Can't say for sure its related, but the recent sale announcement with regard to China seemed to go a lot smoother (interceptors & S400). India needed a bit of reassurance as they want the PAK/FA thing, but they want it to work. Seeing Russian gear work effectively in combat is very reassuring to someone that wants to purchase stuff they never have to actually use.

The most expensive part is the bombs and their prices do not resemble the US equivalents since the government pork culture has not developed yet. But you can see the contractors trying to emulate their US counterparts, but Putin the "tyrant" steps all over them.

I would have thought the jet fuel would be the largest consumable expense.

[radon1]

They are doing regular large-scale military drills anyway these days. This is just another one brought on further afield, at the same cost essentially.

[ROCKMAN]

Potential Russian profit motive: ISIS has been selling millions of bbls of oil under market price to the same buyers that Russia sells to. That probably didn't hurt much a year ago when prices were much higher. But this ain't a year ago.

Folks have been saying OPEC should reduce the amount of oil coming to the market place. Russia is just providing a little help. LOL. It might not be much but consider this: compare what you think Russia is spending going after the ISIS oil to their increased revenue if their effort only increases the price of oil by $1/bbl = an ADDITIONAL $3.7 BILLION PER YEAR. I suspect Putin is kicking his own ass for not going after ISIS sooner. LOL.

And that doesn't take into account the off book value of keeping Syria...his only naval base in the Med.

[radon1]

Pu has now introduced sanctions against Turkey. Dumb screw-bot.

[ennui2]

Great... at least with Iraq we got several thousand US forces killed for a prize that was worth something.

So you endorse the idea of resource-wars? You sound like Donald Trump here.

I'm not seeing much "worth something" with Syria.

You can make the case that no foreign fighters should ever intervene in anyone else's war, in which case maybe we should just disband the UN while we're at it. I know the idea of us being world policemen has been mocked, but at some level, it makes sense not to sit by and watch massacres and genocides occur on the basis of "not my problem".

But to progress into a simple economic numbers game about whether to go to war? That's pretty despicable.

[AgentR11]

Great... at least with Iraq we got several thousand US forces killed for a prize that was worth something.

So you endorse the idea of resource-wars? You sound like Donald Trump here.

My history outlook is Marxist. The only things worth fighting wars for are resources and money; and almost all wars are fought for that purpose, and pretty much always have been. You wrap them in a patriotic banner of nationalism, ideology, religion, or whatever; but in the end, the fight is over resources, money, trade...economics. Always.

I'm not seeing much "worth something" with Syria.

But to progress into a simple economic numbers game about whether to go to war? That's pretty despicable.

Its not despicable. Its honest.

[AgentR11]

They are doing regular large-scale military drills anyway these days. This is just another one brought on further afield, at the same cost essentially.

You do have a good point on that; I'm not ignoring it. Its also acting as a live drill of Russia's supply and logistics on a scale they haven't done in modern times. There's folks that watch and county Russian container ships, tankers, LST, etc, as they transit the Bosphorus; and its been an amazing exercise so far, swift, methodical, sustained; combined with heavy airlift across Iran for sensitive gear (like the S400 stuff). Some will never give them credit, but looks to me like quite the professional operation.

Interesting side note, Russian navy vessels stopped flying the courtesy Turkish flag during transits after the shootdown.

[Tanada]

The following recommendation was made to the EU parliament January 6, 2016. Someone online pointed it out to me yesterday. Much more in a very small font can be found at the link below. The report has a total of 91 recommendation to Parliament and paragraphs of explanation why the committee thinks it is vital for these to be adopted.

Committee on the Environment, Public Health and Food Safety

Rapporteur: Mark Demesmaeker

88. Urges the Member States – on the basis of the precautionary principle and the principle that preventive action should be taken, and taking into account the risks and the negative climate, environmental and biodiversity impacts involved in hydraulic fracturing for the extraction of unconventional hydrocarbons, and the gaps identified in the EU regulatory regime for shale gas activities – not to authorise any new hydraulic fracturing operations in the EU;

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/get ... anguage=EN