spike wrote:I'm sure there are dead people who've sold more books, but how did you figure out I sold 24?
asg70 wrote:Most of the writings about peak-oil in the 2004-2008 time-frame put forward bad predictions.
asg70 wrote: I see very little concession to this fact on the part of the peak-oil faithful here.
asg70 wrote:They seem cultishly immune to facts.
asg70 wrote: As long as that's the case, there won't be any learning or hypothesizing going on, just spin-control intended to maintain a continual sense of imminent dread of TEOTWAWKI.
spike wrote:It's not that Campbell, Simmons, Deffeyes, etc were wrong, it's WHY they were wrong. https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellyn ... 962e985c56
Campbell, Laherrere and Deffeyes relied on math that was simply invalid (but copied by many others). I have several chapters in my book which explain what they did wrong.
Simmons never had much behind his arguments. There is no real evidence in his book that the Saudis are about to experience a peak, just claims that the papers show "problems" as if there were no other places that experienced problems.
pstarr wrote:Spike, time for another talent search. Adam's failed his assignment.
spike wrote:It's not that Campbell, Simmons, Deffeyes, etc were wrong, it's WHY they were wrong. https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellyn ... 962e985c56
Campbell, Laherrere and Deffeyes relied on math that was simply invalid (but copied by many others). I have several chapters in my book which explain what they did wrong.
Simmons never had much behind his arguments. There is no real evidence in his book that the Saudis are about to experience a peak, just claims that the papers show "problems" as if there were no other places that experienced problems.
AdamB wrote:In case you haven't noticed, this isn't really a peak oil website any more.
spike wrote:Simmons never had much behind his arguments. There is no real evidence in his book that the Saudis are about to experience a peak....
I guess if you ignore the facts in Simmon's book then there isn't much evidence there.
But wait! Maybe the facts are important here? Maybe facts have something to do with evidence? Can you comprehend that idea?
If so, then lets examine the question of whether or not KSA is "about to experience a peak" as you put it.
Simmons pointed out in his book that the amount of oil that has already been produced from Ghawar is enormous. The fact that a huge amount of oil has already been produced at Ghawar is indisputable. Are you with me so far on that FACT or do I have to explain it all again for you?
spike wrote:Simmons actually was asked why, if all of the papers he was citing had been presented to the petroleum engineering community, none of them saw the danger he perceived, and he said it was probably because as a banker he was better at seeing the big picture.
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