[vision-master]

Oil will become obsolete within 20 years time.

[kiwichick]

hope not v-m

that time period would mean lots of ugly

[vision-master]

No, it will become less necessary for our survivial.

[TheDude]

Thanks for the info, rock. Not one mention of 'nitrogen' in that article; hats of to Fluor et al. I wonder if they can put that to use elsewhere once KMZ begins its decline.

I've read about the amazing Golden Lane fields before; any chance they've overlooked major fields there? Didn't know the Eagle Ford extended down into Mex either. RRC says it pinches out as it heads NW, looks broader on the border too. This blogger wrote 3 days ago about how he thinks all production in Tamaulipas is shut in from theft and violence, though: Just Another Day At The El Paso Office. Dunno how that would hamper development in the area.

[rockdoc123]

There is an interesting article here on Pemex's plans for shale gas in the Coahuila region

http://www.elsiglodetorreon.com.mx/noticia/622005.html

My understanding is they have drilled at least one of the planned three exploratory wells in March of this year and are declaring it a success.

[TheDude]

Auf English: Mexico Stepping Up Natural Gas Imports as Pemex Focuses on Oil Production - Bloomberg. 6 new power plants planned; depends on US futures market. They mention that shale, too - 40 kb/d of oil estimate as well.

Starting a new thread on another country developing unconventional shale gas - "USG"? Sounds like a university. Would like to know what you think!

[Cid_Yama]

Mexican petroleum production has been falling -- more than 25 percent since its peak in 2004 of 3.9 million barrels per day. Mexico produced 2.98 million barrels per day in 2010. The giant Cantarell field, in particular, has seen a significant drop in production. Meanwhile, domestic demand for oil has grown from 500,000 barrels per day in 1971 to roughly 2.15 million barrels per day in 2010. At present, Mexico is a net oil exporter, with total net exports in 2009 running at just under 1 million barrels per day.

link

[bratticus]

PRODUCTION IS STEADY!!! MOVE ALONG--NOTHING TO SEE HERE!!!

Mexico's Pemex April Crude-Oil Output Steady At 2.573 Million B/D
WSJ / May 26, 2011

Mexico's state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, said Monday that crude-oil production was steady in April at 2.573 million barrels per day on average, compared with the first three months of the year, but exports slipped.

Total crude exports, most of which go to the U.S., averaged 1.223 million barrels a day in April, compared with March's 1.424 million barrels a day and year-ago April's 1.302 million barrels a day, Pemex said in its monthly production report.

... Pemex has struggled in recent years to stop a steady slide in crude-oil production since 2004, or even to meet its internal goal of pumping at least the 2.6 million barrels a day it averaged in full-year 2009.

THIS IS NOT PEAK OIL!!!

THERE IS NO SUCH THING!!! STEADY AS SHE GOES!!! BUSINESS AS USUAL!!!

[rockdoc123]

It's probably worth looking at the whole production curve for Mexico:



Although the Cantarell field is arguably responsible for the maximum production reached in 04-06 if it can be held stable as it has been for the last two years, KMZ starts decline at an average field rate in 2013 and there is additions from the new participation contracts offered by Pemex it seems to me there is a good chance this is going to look like a undulating peak for sometime.

[Fishman]

Thank you for that imput VM, when do the unicorns finally cough up the promised skittles? We will be substituting what?
We will be getting it where?
And this has to do with Mexican oil production how?

Oil will become obsolete within 20 years time

[bratticus]

KMZ starts decline at an average field rate in 2013

Do you really think KMZ will hold until 2013?

High Oil Prices Lift Pemex Profits, Challenges Remain
By Alex Manda / Market News International / May 9, 2011

... George Baker, founder of consultancy Energia.com, said, "Three years ago Pemex forecast KMZ would reach its peak in 2011. It did not say if KMZ will reach a peak and hold or reach its peak and decline." ...

[rockdoc123]

I'm just going on what Pemex has said in their presentations.

[bratticus]

Realist version:

U.S. Oil Prices May Rise if Mexican Oil Exports Continue Falling, an Industrial Info News Alert
Marketwire / June 07, 2011

... "There has been an extremely steep decline in production from Mexico's giant Cantarell oil field," Coan told Industrial Info. "Production from Cantarell has fallen by nearly 75%, from 2.14 million barrels per day (BBL/d) in 2004 to 558,000 BBL/d in 2010. That's an astounding decline." ...

Mexico's Pemex Crude-Oil Output Edges Down For Most Of May
By Laurence Iliff / WSJ / June 1, 2011

Mexico's state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, produced an average of 2.560 million barrels a day of crude oil during most of May, which was slightly lower than April's 2.573 million barrels a day, according to preliminary results from the May 1-29 period.

... The declining supergiant field Cantarell slipped a little in May to 461,000 barrels a day from the full-month April average of 465,000 barrels a day. ...

Denialist version:

Mexico's Pemex Top Crude-Oil Fields To Remain Stable - CEO
By Laurence Iliff / WSJ / June 9, 2011

PUEBLA, Mexico (Dow Jones)--The top producing crude-oil fields of state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, have stabilized and should continue at current output levels through careful management, Chief Executive Juan Jose Suarez Coppel said Thursday.

The mature oil complex of Cantarell, including its principal Akal deposit, can continue production levels of 440,000 to 450,000 barrels a day on average through a combination of maintaining well pressure and drilling new wells when needed, Suarez said at a Mexican oil conference.

Cantarell, a supergiant field that averaged more than 2 million barrels a day in 2005, slid to 501,000 barrels a day in 2010 and brought down Pemex's overall oil production with it. In the first week of June, Cantarell averaged 463,000 barrels a day, Pemex reported on its website.

Mexico's new No. 1 production complex, Ku-Maloob-Zaap, should be able to hold output at between 830,000 and 850,000 barrels a day, Suarez said. ...

So KMZ is supposed to produce maybe 0.8 million barrels a day while Cantarell once produced 2.1?

Statements that indicate they are expecting Cantarell to hold at 440,000 to 450,000 barrels a day in order to maintain stability make me wonder.

[rockdoc123]

So KMZ is supposed to produce maybe 0.8 million barrels a day while Cantarell once produced 2.1?

As I said KMZ only makes up for a portion of the Cantarell decline. The chart demonstrates that pretty well I think.

Statements that indicate they are expecting Cantarell to hold at 440,000 to 450,000 barrels a day in order to maintain stability make me wonder.

According to PEMEX presentations the main collapse in Cantarell happened prior to the end of 2008. Since 2008 they have held production relatively steady. Apparently this is a fairly complex reservoir and the main issue has been continual pressure depletion. The original gas cap was blown off and in the late nineties the field had to be put on gas lift which allowed them to reach peak production but continual pressure declines outpaced what good the gas lift could accomplish. Their most recent efforts have been around nitrogen injection in order to increase reservoir pressure. PEMEX perhaps thinks they can maintain reservoir pressure which should allow for stabilized production for a period of time.

[TheDude]

From Jan: Mexico raises view of peak oil from Ku Maloob Zaap | Energy & Oil | Reuters. Up to 927 kb/d in 2013 for peak.

I recently found a download for all back issues of the O&GJ late 2006-present; one of the early ones has what must be a whole raft of articles bashing this "peak oil" nonsense, which mentions the KMZ startup with expected peak of 800 kb/d; so Pemex are surpassing projections. Actually that's what happened with Cantarell too - both its output and decline; maybe they're pushing this field harder than is ideal as well, and it will crash all the more faster when the time comes, instead of "slowly" as the Reuters article states.

[PeakOiler]

CNN Article

Workers were injured in an explosion at the administrative offices of Mexico's state-run Pemex oil company in the country's capital Thursday, state media reported.
The blast prompted an evacuation of personnel from the Pemex offices, a company spokesman told Mexico's state-run Notimex news agency.
Images from the scene showed emergency rescue teams carrying people on stretchers.
It was unclear how many people were injured or what caused the explosion, Pemex spokesman Francisco Montano told Notimex.
"There are injured and significant damage," he said, according to Notimex.

I guess we'll learn more about this incident soon. Please post updates if you read anything new. Thanks.

[FarQ3]

Only a few hours after Mexico's president again said 'NO' to Pemex privatisation.

http://www.hispanicallyspeakingnews.com/latino-daily-news/details/mexican-president-pena-nieto-says-no-to-privatizing-pemex/21703/

Could be linked

[PeakOiler]

Here's an update from Reuters:

Reuters Article

Mexico blast kills at least 33, flagging Pemex safety woes

<<snip>>A Pemex official said the damaged area was used for human resources in the corporate and refining divisions. It did not have a boiler or gas installations, the official said.

Former Pemex worker Ricardo Marin, 53, said there was nothing in the building which would explode and that the kitchen, where there would be gas, was on the other side.

"The only thing that occurs to me is that it was an attack - but against whom? There's no one with an important job down there," he said, waiting outside the Pemex hospital where a friend was in intensive care. "Maybe it could be a message to Pena Nieto, but not even that has any logic."

Pemex office worker Alfonso Caballero, who was one floor above the blast at the time, said he did not smell any gas and guessed it had been caused by machinery.

Mexican officials have not ruled out sabotage.

<<snip>>Whatever caused the explosion, the deaths and destruction will put the spotlight back on safety at Pemex, which only a couple of hours beforehand had issued a statement on Twitter saying it had managed to improve its record on accidents.

"I suspect this was a bomb," said David Shields, an independent Mexico City-based oil analyst. "There are clandestine armies across Mexico, not just the (drug) cartels."

Shields pointed to the bombing of several Pemex pipelines in the eastern state of Veracruz in 2007. A shadowy Marxist rebel movement took credit for some of the blasts.

[Plantagenet]

As Mexico's oil production continues to fall, Mexico's new President Pena is moving to amend the Mexican Constitution and re-open Mexico to foreign oil companies

Mexico moves to reopen energy sector to private companies

Mexico nationalized foreign oil companies in 1938 and brought all Mexican oil into one national oil company called PEMEX---now 85 years later they are moving to invite the foreign companies back in.