[ennui2]

World-wide deflation will soon spiral into full-blown Depression II. Is that genuine enough for you, Mos?

No. Drop the raspberries and stop trying to get an emotional response out of me and just be serious in this thread. And don't just lob a one-sentence prediction. Explain your methodology.

[Pops]

So you want to ignore whatever argument I posted in the other thread, right before you called me corny, and talked about me throwing rocks, so you can have a meaningful discussion?

Have at it.

[ennui2]

If I had mod rights I would have split the topic. That was the intention. Not ignoring your response. Repost it or move the post if you like.

[GregT]

Strictly out of curiosity ennui2, what is it that you're hoping to accomplish/understand?

Infinite exponential growth in a finite environment is a physical impossibility. Are you trying to figure out how much longer we have until the markets crash, or are you concerned with the future mass extinction of our species?

[davep]

Strictly out of curiosity ennui2, what is it that you're hoping to accomplish/understand?

Infinite exponential growth in a finite environment is a physical impossibility. Are you trying to figure out how much longer we have until the markets crash, or are you concerned with the future mass extinction of our species?

Ennui2 merely wants to determine how much more correct he is than everyone else on this forum.

And he wouldn't be the only one. Try to keep on topic rather than descending into ad homs please.

[Newfie]

As to the point of the thread, I think, LTG made various projections based upon assumptions about how Earths governments would respond to changing conditions.

After fourth years of observation the projections seem to be tracking the assumption model where the governments do nothing. BAU.

The projections indicate a collapse in the near future.

Does the past tracking of the BAU model accurately predict a coming collapse?

What other models do we have to either reinforce LTG or show a different path forward?

[ennui2]

And he wouldn't be the only one. Try to keep on topic rather than descending into ad homs please.

Amen. Let's stick to issues and data-analysis and not one-upsmanship.

[ennui2]

Strictly out of curiosity ennui2, what is it that you're hoping to accomplish/understand?

Infinite exponential growth in a finite environment is a physical impossibility. Are you trying to figure out how much longer we have until the markets crash, or are you concerned with the future mass extinction of our species?

I am trying, perhaps in futility, to get the kind of discussion going that used to make me want to come here to learn something new. And when I mean "learn" something, I'm not talking about people dumping their political baggage onto me in order to convince me to fear or hate this or that politician, country, party, or group.

[GregT]

So, if I may ask, what is it that you are hoping to learn?

I'll try again.

Infinite exponential growth in a finite environment is a mathematical and physical impossibility.

Are you trying to determine at which point we will reach limits to growth? If so, my question would be why?

[Red Pill]

ennui2,

It all looks like we are headed towards one of the darker of their model runs.

I think something they didn't really consider was human psychology and the impact of vested interests. The idea that many may accept their reasoning, yet fail to act or even resist action because they feel they'll be worm food before the real pain hits is a real concern. It leaves those that see the problem arrayed against the ignorant and the evil. No bueno.

[onlooker]

i think we are surely running ahead of schedule in their LTG doomier scenario (s). If i am not mistaken they pinned 2070 as around when collapse would really hit. Well seems to me at this time whether you talk about society, economy or environment we are getting perilously close to collapse type scenario. As one example look at health sector. Threat of pandemic is very real and a world-wide pandemic is a possibility. Also, if I may add, some of the poorer countries are already in collapse mode. So we should be precise in these limits to growth discussions. European Union is on the ledge , look at Greece. Mistrust and dislike for governments is universal threatening mass revolution scenarios. Of course we have peak oil and unstable debt and financial practices (speculation-gambling). Finally, environment is becoming quickly overriding concern as weather is getting freakier by the day. So I would say for sure we are tracking ahead of schedule

[ennui2]

Personally, I see monetary doom as the least important factor in LTG. Countries have defaulted and made it out the other end. Why is it that Greece is having such a hard time and Iceland is at the top of the happiness index? Money and debt are just not what I'm most concerned about. It just seems to be the biggest issue because it's heavier on people's minds than AGW or peak-oil, and so the temptation is to treat every bubble or sovereign default as a "sign". I am much more concerned with things like drought in California or bee die-off and peak soil. You know, things that are likely to drag down the earth's total carrying capacity.

[onlooker]

Finally, environment is becoming quickly overriding concern

Totally agree Ennui, that is why I am often on the Environment forum.

[kiwichick]

from the 30 year update pages 244-245

scenario 9 , where the world decides on an average of 2 children per family , industrial output levels out and is sustained, population peaks at approx. 8 billion and then gradually declines and pollution peaks by about 2040 and then declines.

however this depended on the world agreeing on 2 children per family in 2002

we are heading in that direction but we are not there yet , so logically the "peaks" will occur later, which , also logically, means more risk.

[kiwichick]

@ kc

it also required "perfect birth control effectiveness"

and the setting of "modest limits for material production'

[onlooker]

Respectfully speaking Kiwi and others I do think LTG underestimated environmental limits. We know about GW but also other ecological impacts appear poised to not just limit population but also economic production soon. I cite impacts that will have a bearing on human, animal and plant health, soil erosion and degradation, costs of adapting to GW, less energy output relative to energy input, scarcity of some minerals, a unsustainable economic system are just some impacts. "We are not there yet" I think we will not get "there" in any type of stabilized scenario. I think the word Overshoot perfectly applies. We have in fact already passed limits but are only soon going to feel the full brunt of the consequences of passing such limits.

[Newfie]

Finally, environment is becoming quickly overriding concern

Totally agree Ennui, that is why I am often on the Environment forum.

Not to disagree with h your well placed fears, the one caveat I have is that the global economy has the potential to collapse FAST. THe others are overall bigger concerns, but they will move slowly compared to how fast the economy can go down.

[onlooker]

I would answer that caveat Newfie with the perspective that the Economy is but a sub-set of the Environment. People can re-orient economies to serve their needs as long as the surroundings near or far allow it. What if their is a widespread collapse of the biosphere-ecosystems? That would be catastrophic! Or even just a less giving Earth would hamper the Economy and affect human health and thus productivity. So in terms of scale yes the Economy is a worry to many but they lose sight of the bigger threat which is Mother nature. That is why I never was a fan of movements like the Occupy movement they focused it seemed exclusively on economic matters.

[GregT]

Not to disagree with h your well placed fears, the one caveat I have is that the global economy has the potential to collapse FAST. THe others are overall bigger concerns, but they will move slowly compared to how fast the economy can go down.

Don't kid yourself Newfie, the environment has the potential to collapse every bit as fast, if not faster.

The big difference? As human beings we don't have the capability of extending and pretending the environment. We can't print our way out of mass extinction.