[Homesteader]

Pabolite, correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe he is saying we will be "going back" to our basic elements, as in decomposing.

[TonyPrep]

As you're claiming to accurately predict the future over the next few years, what do you see?

I can't predict the future but I can notice that the whole of Man's body of knowledge is on the verge of being virtualized. This represents a whole new stage in evolution. We will obtain some control over evolutionary processes by having gobsmacking quantities of supercomputing power available to us.

But you said:"I think it is possible to predict realistically HOW Mankind will confront these problems. And so my posts are about how human society will evolve in the century ahead, being shaped by: (1) Resource constraints (2) Incredible advances in Science and Technology leading to some... SomethingElse.", though you then modified that with, "which is impossible to accurately forecast beyond a few short years.". Maybe you can't predict the future but you know a man who can? So what does he accurately predict for the next few years?

Does Kurzweil address limits or does he assume no limits in his vision of the future? If the whole of man's body of knowledge is being virtualized, what happens if societies collapse to a degree that that knowledge can no longer be accessed?

[dohboi]

So our computers are getting smarter and smarter while we are getting more and more stupid---and this is supposed to be a sign of a bright future?

[Lore]

So our computers are getting smarter and smarter while we are getting more and more stupid---and this is supposed to be a sign of a bright future?

Only if you're some kind of space cadet. I have some old 50s issues of Mechanix Illustrated and Popular Science claiming that we should have been living on Mars by now, driving flying cars and floating on cities in the middle of the oceans.

[Newfie]

One of the things that strikes me on this message board is that the lack of structured thinking and even a basic understanding of how things work.

And I also get the sense that this forum has been has somehow been targeted for attack by a certain subset of the population with a particular agenda. This may either be through design (NOT intelligent) or just because birds of a feather fly together. I guess it matters no, they surely seem to distract from the legitimate discourse.

But back to my first point, I find many of the arguments difficult because they are based upon some assumptions or beliefs I don't share. Nor do the arguments even seem to follow a logical structure. This obviously occurs with the trolls but also with other more well meaning and earnest folks. I find that I read posts that have clear reasoning flaws or hidden assumptions. Yet I don't know how to "fix" this situation. I find it frustrating. If one could simply have meaningful discussion perhaps we could sort this all out, and I too may find difficulties with my positions. But that seems impossible to accomplish with the trolls constantly jabbering and distracting.

Rhetoric and logical discourse have been with us for thousands of years Some of the topics we discuss here have been debated repeatedly over the millennium, with no resolution. It seems, to this old fart, that we have done little to advance humanities deductive prowess.

Once we get beyond a certain degree of difficulty we just do not function well as a collective. We are unable to plan over anything but a short period, surely not over decades, possible not over two years. We have difficulty in evaluating our greatest common needs and then working towards them, we can't focus. While denial has probably served us well in our prehistoric development, we can't seem to get over it now to face the challenges in front of us. Individually we can each do these things, but we can not collectively.

So perhaps we have reached another kind of "limit to growth" in the sense that humanity can only cope with issues of particular complexity. Our internal wiring limits our ability to cope with the new difficulties we face. In this sense our "limit to growth" is that we, humans, have reached beyond our capacity to manage.

[pablonite]

I mean, you don't really think what you said makes any sense, do you?

Ok me bad, it was a horrible translation loosely based on something I read...

http://www.orionbooks.co.uk/MP-859/the- ... ngdom-.htm

He only alluded to the possibility which is most definetly plausible. Anyway, you need no knowledge of chemistry to read this book.

Pabolite, correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe he is saying we will be "going back" to our basic elements, as in decomposing.

I can only vouch for my interpretation of what he wrote which has faded, I am sure he is an interesting guy who could add some color to a thread like this?

http://www.thetech.org/genetics/pov_atkins/index.html

The Future of Science conference was held in Venice, Italy in September of 2006. Peter Atkins, Daniel Dennett, Marc Hauser, and Ian Tattersall were interviewed at this the Second World Conference. The theme was evolution and as the organizers themselves state:

Evolution is a central concept in many spheres of human endeavour, ranging from astrophysics and genetics to philosophy and psychology. Reflection about evolution is reflection about ourselves, our future and our place in the universe.

It's good to stop and look in the mirror every once in awhile but that's all we are really doing here.

[Lore]

So perhaps we have reached another kind of "limit to growth" in the sense that humanity can only cope with issues of particular complexity. Our internal wiring limits our ability to cope with the new difficulties we face. In this sense our "limit to growth" is that we, humans, have reached beyond our capacity to manage.

This goes back to the ole "fight-or-flight response". Humans are wired, as most vertebrates, to respond to the immediate perception of danger. However, Homo sapiens also have the capacity to comprehend their existence, within the context of both past and future. Unfortunately we are handicapped, even given full understanding of our imminent imperilments, since such dangers just do not elicit the appropriate reaction that an immediate threat would.

Hence, you have a large group of knuckle dragging chuckleheads that feel that the danger neither exists, is overblown, or can just be ignored until it actually happens. It’s not surprising that some groups would take advantage of this human frailty for their own ends.

[Newfie]

Hence, you have a large group of knuckle dragging chuckleheads that feel that the danger neither exists, is overblown, or can just be ignored until it actually happens. It’s not surprising that some groups would take advantage of this human frailty for their own ends.

While I don't disagree that there are SOME who fit this characterization (ARM mortgage brokers come to mind) I don't think it is the norm. It is the average Joe who is consumed with living. Which is perhaps worse.

This goes back to the ole "fight-or-flight response". Humans are wired, as most vertebrates, to respond to the immediate perception of danger.....since such dangers just do not elicit the appropriate reaction that an immediate threat would.

Yup, that's the salient point. The actionable event horizon is what, 6 minutes?

[Cid_Yama]

I'm sorry, but, SOME of us have evolved a little more than others and can recognize the threat at a greater distance. Just not enough of us.

Doesn't really matter, does it?

The writing is on the wall. Nothing will be done. Mankind ends at it's own hand.

Intentional or unintentional doesn't matter.

[Carlhole]

The writing is on the wall. Nothing will be done. Mankind ends at it's own hand.

Intentional or unintentional doesn't matter.

Sure it matters. The groupthink doom scenario around here is the generic Richard Duncan "Olduvai Gorge" model.

OTOH, I'm talking about evolutionary forces - which work in both natural worlds and virtual worlds - leading to an altogether different sort of future. (1) Resource constraints, population, environmental degradation, etc., and (2) The undeniable explosion in science and technology which (very credibly) promises a variety of solutions and opportunities. You have to be in strong denial to continually ignore the importance of it.

There is a line of thought as regards human evolution: that the thought, meme, science, religion, language, culture, and tradition of human societies is an important part natural evolution. It is how human beings are adapted to confronting threats or opportunities. New ideas, discoveries, inventions...these things lead to wholly unpredictable outcomes. You're a fool if you think you can be certain about outcomes beyond, say, a few short years.

I can point to all kinds of game-changing science that makes it pretty clear to me that the future is wilder than its ever been.

But thanks for stopping by and spouting the groupthink doom line which we all know by heart!

[Newfie]

I'm sorry, but, SOME of us have evolved a little more than others and can recognize the threat at a greater distance. Just not enough of us.

Doesn't really matter, does it?

The writing is on the wall. Nothing will be done. Mankind ends at it's own hand.

Intentional or unintentional doesn't matter.

Truly Cid, you don't need to invoke genetic mutation to explain the difference of opinions. And, if you look back through the history of rhetoric I am sure you will find clear thinking men. Is this not the described in the Casandra myth? Someone with clear foresight who was ignored? We may be "different" but we are not evolved higher critters. The selection process do not work fast enough to select for our enhanced survival. Perhaps they WILL, but they have not.

As to the rest of your post, spot on, as usual.

[Cloud9]

Ah, the Arian has revealed himself.

[Ludi]

Ah, the Arian has revealed himself.

Ar·i·an 1 (âr-n, r-)
adj.
1. Of or relating to Arianism: the Arian heresy.
2. Of or relating to Arius.
n.
A believer in Arianism.
Ar·i·an 2 (r-n, âr-)
n.
One who is born under the sign of Aries.
Ari·an adj.

[Newfie]

Ah, the Arian has revealed himself.

Don't be so quick and don't take my words for condemnation.

[TonyPrep]

There is a line of thought as regards human evolution: that the thought, meme, science, religion, language, culture, and tradition of human societies is an important part natural evolution. It is how human beings are adapted to confronting threats or opportunities. New ideas, discoveries, inventions...these things lead to wholly unpredictable outcomes. You're a fool if you think you can be certain about outcomes beyond, say, a few short years.

I can point to all kinds of game-changing science that makes it pretty clear to me that the future is wilder than its ever been.

Please do.

Is technological history a solid guide to the future? Not all problems are solvable (or not in a way that is desired). You're a fool if you think you can be certain about outcomes beyond, say, a few short years. But what about those few short years? Do you know anyone who is able to see the future, for certain, over a few short years? If so, what do they say?

[Lore]

There is a line of thought as regards human evolution: that the thought, meme, science, religion, language, culture, and tradition of human societies is an important part natural evolution. It is how human beings are adapted to confronting threats or opportunities. New ideas, discoveries, inventions...these things lead to wholly unpredictable outcomes. You're a fool if you think you can be certain about outcomes beyond, say, a few short years.

I can point to all kinds of game-changing science that makes it pretty clear to me that the future is wilder than its ever been.

Please do.

Is technological history a solid guide to the future? Not all problems are solvable (or not in a way that is desired). You're a fool if you think you can be certain about outcomes beyond, say, a few short years. But what about those few short years? Do you know anyone who is able to see the future, for certain, over a few short years? If so, what do they say?

Ask me... ask me! I see a bright future, I got moon beams shooten out of my ass! In retrospect though, that's possibly just a bright past.

[Lore]

I'm sorry, but, SOME of us have evolved a little more than others and can recognize the threat at a greater distance. Just not enough of us.

Doesn't really matter, does it?

The writing is on the wall. Nothing will be done. Mankind ends at it's own hand.

Intentional or unintentional doesn't matter.

Here is you're typical comment from an average DEVO 'de-evolutionized' human being. *

Editor:

Pertaining to all of this hoopla about "global warming," that we are being bomb-blasted with every day: Yes, we should clean up the pollution of the air that we breathe every day, but "global warming" is a natural phenomenon that has been going on for millions of years.

According to scientific study, "global warming" occurs about every 15,000-20,000 years, then in-between every cycle we have a cycle of "The Ice Age," that is what killed off all of the dinosaurs

http://www.newssun.com/opinion/ltr-1223-Streeter

* The name "Devo" comes "from their concept of 'de-evolution' - the idea that instead of evolving, mankind has actually regressed, as evidenced by the dysfunction and herd mentality of American society."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devo

[Carlhole]

Here is you're typical comment from an average DEVO 'de-evolutionized' human being. [/color]

You can always tell when someone's out of intellectual ammunition: they grumble a lot, try to change the subject...

[Lore]

Here is you're typical comment from an average DEVO 'de-evolutionized' human being. [/color]

You can always tell when someone's out of intellectual ammunition: they grumble a lot, try to change the subject...

What do you know, throw a rock into a pack of dogs and the one that gets hit is bound to yelp.

[Carlhole]

Here is you're typical comment from an average DEVO 'de-evolutionized' human being. [/color]

You can always tell when someone's out of intellectual ammunition: they grumble a lot, try to change the subject...

What do you know, throw a rock into a pack of dogs and the one that gets hit is bound to yelp.

Bullsh*tter, I've been posting in this thread since the first page.