Carlhole wrote:Lore wrote:It all sounds like peak technology to me.
Oh sure. right.
Show me some evidence for that. And explain some the very significant science being reported all the time now.
In order to believe the peak oil gospel, you need to believe that exploration will not lead to significant discoveries - i'm talking about Science in general. And you need to believe that society-wide adaptation is not possible. I see no good evidence for believing those things. I just pay attention to what's going on with an ey towards resources.
Since, as I said, there will be an rapid evolutionary development ahead that will be shaped by (1) resource constraints, population, environmental breakdown, etc., and (2) An inevitable explosion in Science & Technology leading the things like machine intelligence, and biological interfaces and such. Nothing has been discovered that says this is impossible. And it looks like they are making rapid progress on everything in this sort of direction all the time.
There is probably some immutable Law that says, "Intelligence is the most valuable thing in the Universe". Because intelligence always seeks greater intelligence - like a gravitational force or something. So once a certain level of Science & Technology is attained, then the increasing knowledge itself becomes a new imperative. And you can't avoid it.
Now, we're are entering an age when some pretty damn amazing things are going to be happening. And resource constraints, population, degradation... all that needs to be solved in some rational way. You can either believe that humans are incapable fo perceiving the word properly and adapting, or you can believe that humans are stupider than yeast. Like I said, I think the emergence of an Earth "cognition" ( or something... there must be a better word) is what human Science will lead to.
It will be an evolved solution. That's what makes advents in supercomputing so interesting. Because the laws of evolution also hold true in virtual worlds. So... There's some sh*t afott, my friend.
But there's no reason to believe that something Richard Duncan forecasted about the future any more than what ANYONE says about the future. Because our thoughts about the future affect future outcomes. And weird new things evolve by that mechanism.
Sounds like you’re a bit of Techno-Pollyanna. The evidence has been thrown up on here everyday, you're just not accepting it.
Exploration will not lead to significant discoveries that at the most could be recoverable under reasonable time and cost.
Despite a recent uptick in the number of giant oil and gas fields, discovery of giants appears to have peaked in the 1960s and 1970s.
Mann, P., M. Horn, I. Cross. "Emerging Trends from 69 Giant Oil and Gas Fields Discovered from 2000-2006
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_oil_and_gas_fields
Future human social and physical adaptation will be nearly impossible given the following sets of problems that are beginning to have an impact on us right now. The list doesn’t even include Climate Change, which we have ample evidence for and will only make the following challenges worse.
1. Biodiversity: “The world is currently undergoing a very rapid loss of biodiversity comparable with the great mass extinction events that have previously occurred only five or six times in the Earth’s history,” says the World Wildlife Fund.
2. Ocean acidification: The evidence of the effects of increased CO2 levels on the world’s oceans is unequivocal. Surface ocean acidity has increased by 30 per cent since 1800, with half this increase occurring in just the last three decades.
3. Population pressure: Broadcaster Sir David Attenborough has witnessed how the natural world is being crushed by humanity. “I’ve never seen a problem that wouldn’t be easier to solve with fewer people, or harder – and ultimately impossible – with more,” he says. The Earth must provide for around 80 million more people than this time last year. It took us almost 10,000 years to reach a billion people. We now add that many every 12 years.
4. Peak oil: (Already discussed) This month, the International Energy Agency formally predicted global peak oil by 2020. Today, the world burns the equivalent of 82 million barrels of oil every day. Projected growth in energy demand will see this rise to almost 100 million barrels within a decade, but by then, output from the oilfields currently in production will have plummeted to barely a third of that.
5. Peak food: the global food system is predicated on lashings of cheap oil, fresh water, soil and natural gas. All four are in decline.
6. Peak water: During the 20th century, human water usage increased nine-fold, with irrigation (for agriculture) alone using two-thirds of this total. With almost all major glaciers retreating, many river systems are at risk. Groundwater in aquifers is another key fresh water source. Over-extraction, mostly for agriculture, has caused their levels worldwide to plummet. Pollution, especially from fertiliser overuse, adds to the loss of fresh water.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opi ... 33095.html
Super computers are no response to a lack of resources and a degradation of our environment with an unwillingness for human populations to address the issues. It would seem the only thing afoot here is a well planted boot to our collective asses.
No matter how hard I think and try to live forever, it’s just not going to happen, is it?