[Lore]

It all sounds like peak technology to me.

Oh sure. right.

Show me some evidence for that. And explain some the very significant science being reported all the time now.

In order to believe the peak oil gospel, you need to believe that exploration will not lead to significant discoveries - i'm talking about Science in general. And you need to believe that society-wide adaptation is not possible. I see no good evidence for believing those things. I just pay attention to what's going on with an ey towards resources.

Since, as I said, there will be an rapid evolutionary development ahead that will be shaped by (1) resource constraints, population, environmental breakdown, etc., and (2) An inevitable explosion in Science & Technology leading the things like machine intelligence, and biological interfaces and such. Nothing has been discovered that says this is impossible. And it looks like they are making rapid progress on everything in this sort of direction all the time.

There is probably some immutable Law that says, "Intelligence is the most valuable thing in the Universe". Because intelligence always seeks greater intelligence - like a gravitational force or something. So once a certain level of Science & Technology is attained, then the increasing knowledge itself becomes a new imperative. And you can't avoid it.

Now, we're are entering an age when some pretty damn amazing things are going to be happening. And resource constraints, population, degradation... all that needs to be solved in some rational way. You can either believe that humans are incapable fo perceiving the word properly and adapting, or you can believe that humans are stupider than yeast. Like I said, I think the emergence of an Earth "cognition" ( or something... there must be a better word) is what human Science will lead to.

It will be an evolved solution. That's what makes advents in supercomputing so interesting. Because the laws of evolution also hold true in virtual worlds. So... There's some sh*t afott, my friend.

But there's no reason to believe that something Richard Duncan forecasted about the future any more than what ANYONE says about the future. Because our thoughts about the future affect future outcomes. And weird new things evolve by that mechanism.

Sounds like you’re a bit of Techno-Pollyanna. The evidence has been thrown up on here everyday, you're just not accepting it.

Exploration will not lead to significant discoveries that at the most could be recoverable under reasonable time and cost.

Despite a recent uptick in the number of giant oil and gas fields, discovery of giants appears to have peaked in the 1960s and 1970s.

Mann, P., M. Horn, I. Cross. "Emerging Trends from 69 Giant Oil and Gas Fields Discovered from 2000-2006

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_oil_and_gas_fields

Future human social and physical adaptation will be nearly impossible given the following sets of problems that are beginning to have an impact on us right now. The list doesn’t even include Climate Change, which we have ample evidence for and will only make the following challenges worse.

1. Biodiversity: “The world is currently undergoing a very rapid loss of biodiversity comparable with the great mass extinction events that have previously occurred only five or six times in the Earth’s history,” says the World Wildlife Fund.

2. Ocean acidification: The evidence of the effects of increased CO2 levels on the world’s oceans is unequivocal. Surface ocean acidity has increased by 30 per cent since 1800, with half this increase occurring in just the last three decades.

3. Population pressure: Broadcaster Sir David Attenborough has witnessed how the natural world is being crushed by humanity. “I’ve never seen a problem that wouldn’t be easier to solve with fewer people, or harder – and ultimately impossible – with more,” he says. The Earth must provide for around 80 million more people than this time last year. It took us almost 10,000 years to reach a billion people. We now add that many every 12 years.

4. Peak oil: (Already discussed) This month, the International Energy Agency formally predicted global peak oil by 2020. Today, the world burns the equivalent of 82 million barrels of oil every day. Projected growth in energy demand will see this rise to almost 100 million barrels within a decade, but by then, output from the oilfields currently in production will have plummeted to barely a third of that.

5. Peak food: the global food system is predicated on lashings of cheap oil, fresh water, soil and natural gas. All four are in decline.

6. Peak water: During the 20th century, human water usage increased nine-fold, with irrigation (for agriculture) alone using two-thirds of this total. With almost all major glaciers retreating, many river systems are at risk. Groundwater in aquifers is another key fresh water source. Over-extraction, mostly for agriculture, has caused their levels worldwide to plummet. Pollution, especially from fertiliser overuse, adds to the loss of fresh water.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opi ... 33095.html

Super computers are no response to a lack of resources and a degradation of our environment with an unwillingness for human populations to address the issues. It would seem the only thing afoot here is a well planted boot to our collective asses.

No matter how hard I think and try to live forever, it’s just not going to happen, is it?

[Carlhole]

1 - Like I said, there is no reason to believe anything without good evidence.

2 - humans will probably lead to something else eventually in an evolutionary path.

Please expand on statement #2 using the dictum of statement #1.

I'm following scientific stories and seeing trends everyday. I see it as a natural and extremely productive pursuit. I see it as part of irrepressible Human Nature. It's a fact, to me, that people adapt themselves and modify their environment. This adaptation leads somewhere.

The billions of whip-smart, educated souls in China and India can be perfectly employed in Science & Technology because it's a never-ending gold mine. If energy is the priority, I think some real innovation can occur. There's a lot of built up intellectual ammunition over there.

I can't wait til NIF fires up, even if the first few tries are duds. I just think there's something incredibly valuable and important stuff there to discover.

I think we are looking at a huge build-out that can't be pulled off in the old American style but MUST be accomplished nevertheless. There will be great American-Chinese cooperation.

As far as oil goes, what Michael Lynch just wrote. I listen to those voices on oil too. They have a pretty good case. No one seems very frightened about impending doom outside of places like this site.

There's no reason to believe in PO doom because there's no good evidence that it is inevitable. And when you look around, you see big political changes, economic instability, a desire to cooperate. You also see, like a said, I mind-boggling explosion of impossibly advanced sci/tech. You have to ignore all that as a potent force if you want to think doomerish.

At some point, if machine intelligence appears, machine intelligence itself can peer into the future as well and affect future outcomes. There are strong trends in this direction. Also, it looks doable that brain enhancements will be possible. This research will be a potent force - because having greater cognition will always be a kind of holy grail. Once the brain gives up some of its secrets, they will be applied. No doubt about it. Because it's an evolutionary thing. An opportunity.

Just the act of exploring these opportunities changes future outcomes. You can never look into the future and be certain about anything long-range. You can only speculate. But then if your speculation becomes a meme, it changes the future you were thinking about in the first place.

[DefiledEngine]

Show me some evidence for that. And explain some the very significant science being reported all the time now.

In order to believe the peak oil gospel, you need to believe that exploration will not lead to significant discoveries - i'm talking about Science in general. And you need to believe that society-wide adaptation is not possible. I see no good evidence for believing those things. I just pay attention to what's going on with an ey towards resources.

Since, as I said, there will be an rapid evolutionary development ahead that will be shaped by (1) resource constraints, population, environmental breakdown, etc., and (2) An inevitable explosion in Science & Technology leading the things like machine intelligence, and biological interfaces and such. Nothing has been discovered that says this is impossible. And it looks like they are making rapid progress on everything in this sort of direction all the time.

You and I have been here over 5 years, and between now and then there have been no great scientific or social breakthroughs. What there has been is continued population explotion, depletion of natural resources and degradation of environmental habitats. The peaking of oil has led to great economic downturns and heightened tensions worldwide. And then you come here and make a statement like that. People were saying exactly that kind of stuff 5 years ago and nothing has changed. No great fusion reactors or solar power plants are in sight. So how can you still come to this conclusion? I just don't get it.

[Carlhole]

Super computers are no response to a lack of resources and a degradation of our environment with an unwillingness for human populations to address the issues. It would seem the only thing afoot here is a well planted boot to our collective asses.

No matter how hard I think and try to live forever, it’s just not going to happen, is it?

What do you think? That limits to growth are not evolutionary pressure? Of course they are.

And human beings respond to evolutionary pressure with Science & Technology through which they rapidly evolve solutions. It's not like they can change their minds about it. Science isn't some sort of misbegotten idle choice. It's a basic part of the human character. It's designed in by evolution. It's like sex. You can scream all you want, "People! Stop effing!" But you can't expect them to stop. Well, stopping sci/tech is just as ridiculous.

I don't see anything on the horizon slowing it down. It looks pretty stunning to me what is being done and what the potential is. I think we are looking at an intense period of discovery ahead.

[Carlhole]

Super computers are no response to a lack of resources and a degradation of our environment with an unwillingness for human populations to address the issues.

Al Gore: Supercomputers can reverse climate change

You are the one who is out of the mainstream on that point.

Supercomputing technology, according to Al Gore, will help the human race reverse climate change, both by aiding the expansion of renewable energy use and by creating models that help people understand the severity of global warming.

Speaking Thursday morning at the SC09 supercomputing conference in Portland, Ore., the former vice president and Nobel Peace Prize winner told researchers that their expertise can help convince the public and politicians that action is needed to reduce carbon emissions...

Gore recognizes that evolved solutions and accurately modeled complex phenomena are real and possible with supercomputing.

[pablonite]

1 - Like I said, there is no reason to believe anything without good evidence.

2 - humans will probably lead to something else eventually in an evolutionary path.

Please expand on statement #2 using the dictum of statement #1. In short, please provide "good evidence" that humans will evolve into "something else."

In particular I would like some clarity in how our environment will shape our biological selection and the envisioned time frame.

Seriously, no joke. I'd like to hear.

I'll try.

We have good evidence that the periodic table is more or less a good representation of what we know about the atomic structure of everything in our universe. We also know Carbon is critical to almost every form of life we have encountered so far. In fact we could say all advanced life forms employ the element of Carbon - it is a key element.

In the periodic table you notice Carbons neighbours, Nitrogen and Phosphorus, Oxygen and Sulphur...we know these elements are building blocks for life. Oh, and look - right below Carbon is Silicon...

I rest my case, we are well underway to "something else".

[Lore]

What do you think? That limits to growth are not evolutionary pressure? Of course they are.

And human beings respond to evolutionary pressure with Science & Technology through which they rapidly evolve solutions. It's not like they can change their minds about it. Science isn't some sort of misbegotten idle choice. It's a basic part of the human character. It's designed in by evolution. It's like sex. You can scream all you want, "People! Stop effing!" But you can't expect them to stop. Well, stopping sci/tech is just as ridiculous.

I don't see anything on the horizon slowing it down. It looks pretty stunning to me what is being done and what the potential is. I think we are looking at an intense period of discovery ahead.

The beginnings of science date back to around the time of Aristotle, I believe sex goes back a little farther then that.

I just gave you plenty of reasons for it all slowing down to a halt, but if you would rather believe in some science fiction fantasy world, be my guest.

[Lore]

Super computers are no response to a lack of resources and a degradation of our environment with an unwillingness for human populations to address the issues.

Al Gore: Supercomputers can reverse climate change

You are the one who is out of the mainstream on that point.

Supercomputing technology, according to Al Gore, will help the human race reverse climate change, both by aiding the expansion of renewable energy use and by creating models that help people understand the severity of global warming.

Speaking Thursday morning at the SC09 supercomputing conference in Portland, Ore., the former vice president and Nobel Peace Prize winner told researchers that their expertise can help convince the public and politicians that action is needed to reduce carbon emissions...

Gore recognizes that evolved solutions and accurately modeled complex phenomena are real and possible with supercomputing.

Al Gore would be wrong if that's what he meant. Supercomputers are just mindless machines, it takes the collective will of the people operating them to make use of the data in a constructive way. So far humans are unwilling to use that information to its potential.

[Carlhole]

What do you think? That limits to growth are not evolutionary pressure? Of course they are.

And human beings respond to evolutionary pressure with Science & Technology through which they rapidly evolve solutions. It's not like they can change their minds about it. Science isn't some sort of misbegotten idle choice. It's a basic part of the human character. It's designed in by evolution. It's like sex. You can scream all you want, "People! Stop effing!" But you can't expect them to stop. Well, stopping sci/tech is just as ridiculous.

I don't see anything on the horizon slowing it down. It looks pretty stunning to me what is being done and what the potential is. I think we are looking at an intense period of discovery ahead.

The beginnings of science date back to around the time of Aristotle, I believe sex goes back a little farther then that.

I just gave you plenty of reasons for it all slowing down to a halt, but if you would rather believe in some science fiction fantasy world, be my guest.

Science is simply a formalized framework for curiosity, learning and problem-solving These are basic inherent drives which have been around for countless millenia and which are part of hominid evolutionary history. It's not something you can decide not to do. Curiosity, learning and problem-solving are fundamentally human. And these drives lead somewhere. They lead towards increasing complexity and accumulation of knowledge, greater control over the environment, and self-enhancement to whatever degree is possible. This effect is amplified by large population and widespread communications.

But at some point, probably when machine intelligence arrives, an IBM machine will be perceiving vast streams of information received through any number of specialized sensors, noticing patterns, and forming concepts about the data. This is actually the stated goal of IBM's Bluematter Project that was the most pressworthy issue of the whole supercomputing conference.

So this is something that is happening now that has a definite direction and is developing rapidly. There's a pretty healthy supercomputer race going on in the world. Everyone can see the value of the ability to evolve ideas and borrow principles of brain operation from Nature and apply them to computing.

There is no reason to believe that exploring this biology is too complex or too deeply quantum to comprehend. The tools of exploration are certainly up-to-snuff. There is no reason to think that supercomputing won't yield an abundance of new knowledge and new applications.

[TonyPrep]

But we're not here to help evolution along, nature will do just fine, with or without us.

That right there is the fundamental disagreement.

You subscribe to that separation of Man vs. Nature BS

Wow! Nothing could be further from the truth. Humans are one part of nature. No question about it.

whereas I think Science and Technology is an emergent pattern of evolution and that Man is an emergent creature of evolution. Man is a species that is able to become more aware of the importance of continued evolution. ,,,and that Industrialization is a mega-phase of a growth pattern toward a more perfect complexity - something that will require speedy evolution... It's just altogether a different point-of-view.

I'd be surprised if you could find many humans intent on helping evolution along. Consequently, I think you're wrong. Our current human species is where evolution has got to on one particular branch. There is no knowing if we are the end of a branch or not. It is pure hubris to suggest that humans can somehow control or help along evolution to some greater human species. Maybe technology is an aspect of evolution but we will never know; evolution operates (usually) over deep time, not just a couple of human generations.

In the context of limits, what is your point, with this line?

[TonyPrep]

[quote="Carlhole"I see the biological world around me as accessible to the human mind. The biological world is evidence. None of it is inaccessible.That is, none of it is too complex, too deeply weird, too... beyond us. ...and that includes understanding how animals brains work.[/quote]Where is the evidence for that? Sure, it's impossible to prove that humans will eventually understand everything about the biological world?

[Carlhole]

In the context of limits, what is your point, with this line?

...I think it is possible to predict realistically HOW Mankind will confront these problems. And so my posts are about how human society will evolve in the century ahead, being shaped by: (1) Resource constraints (2) Incredible advances in Science and Technology leading to some... SomethingElse .

...which is impossible to accurately forecast beyond a few short years.

Evolutionary pressures and responses are the point. Gut-wrenching changes are the point. But no broad doom - there is no good evidence for it. You have to believe too many things for doom to be a certainty.

It's a speculation which looked better a few years ago than it does now.

[Homesteader]

I live by this rule: "There is no reason to believe anything at all without good evidence".

So show us the evidence.

Link one peer reviewed scientific article from an evolutionary biologist or other life science professional that even when mischaracterized supports any of what you say.

Otherwise it is no more than a load of mental masturbation. If you can't then STFU.

[DefiledEngine]

I'd be surprised if you could find many humans intent on helping evolution along. Consequently, I think you're wrong. Our current human species is where evolution has got to on one particular branch. There is no knowing if we are the end of a branch or not. It is pure hubris to suggest that humans can somehow control or help along evolution to some greater human species. Maybe technology is an aspect of evolution but we will never know; evolution operates (usually) over deep time, not just a couple of human generations.

Oh, I think you can find PLENTY of humans willing to help evolution along through war, murder etc. Intra-species competition is one of the most important drives for evolution and something humans are really good at. Something fundamental and a part of "inherit drives" that Carhole conveniently disregards.

[careinke]

Which will be first to no longer be available in your area, grid-electicity, cellphones or internet?

Clean water

[TonyPrep]

I'd be surprised if you could find many humans intent on helping evolution along. Consequently, I think you're wrong. Our current human species is where evolution has got to on one particular branch. There is no knowing if we are the end of a branch or not. It is pure hubris to suggest that humans can somehow control or help along evolution to some greater human species. Maybe technology is an aspect of evolution but we will never know; evolution operates (usually) over deep time, not just a couple of human generations.

Oh, I think you can find PLENTY of humans willing to help evolution along through war, murder etc. Intra-species competition is one of the most important drives for evolution and something humans are really good at. Something fundamental and a part of "inherit drives" that Carhole conveniently disregards.

I don't think those humans are doing it to help evolution along.

[TonyPrep]

...I think it is possible to predict realistically HOW Mankind will confront these problems. And so my posts are about how human society will evolve in the century ahead, being shaped by: (1) Resource constraints (2) Incredible advances in Science and Technology leading to some... SomethingElse .

...which is impossible to accurately forecast beyond a few short years.

Evolutionary pressures and responses are the point. Gut-wrenching changes are the point. But no broad doom - there is no good evidence for it. You have to believe too many things for doom to be a certainty.

I don't believe in certainties but it sure looks like the human experiment is probably heading towards some major change. You might call that change gut-wrenching, others might use the term "doom".

As you're claiming to accurately predict the future over the next few years, what do you see?

[Carlhole]

As you're claiming to accurately predict the future over the next few years, what do you see?

I can't predict the future but I can notice that the whole of Man's body of knowledge is on the verge of being virtualized. This represents a whole new stage in evolution. We will obtain some control over evolutionary processes by having gobsmacking quantities of supercomputing power available to us.

From the You 2.0 thread:

Did Jules Verne accurately portray his future - the 20th century? Did he get a couple of things right and was he more or less on the right track? I think we remember him as such.

So it is, when anyone makes forecasts about the future. You only get a hazy idea of it even when you're guessing pretty good. So it is with anything in human affairs. So it is with peak oil.

With that in mind, Kurzweil puts his forecasts down in print for all the world to see "In The Age Of Spiritual Machines" When Machines Transcend Human ". I have to agree with him about the operations of evolution he talks about in the book - not only in the natural world, but in labs on supercomputers in a variety of applications.

Look for it at the library. "In The Age Of... Machines" is older than his most recent book "The Singularity Is Near", but I like it better. Right up front, Kurzweil says that making long-range forecasts about human affairs is fraught with peril, but he wanted to have the same courage as Jules Verne did. So he wrote the book, which is his description of what the rest of the century will look like given his certainties about the progression towards machine intelligences and other advents.

Verne was probably just looking at what was likely to come down the pike given the amazing technology trends he was seeing in the early 20th century. This time around, it looks increasingly like nano-technology, advanced computing, AI, bio sciences, quantum mechanics, etc. will radically and rapidly change the world.

WOW, what a book, what a magnificent book. There are very few people in the same league as Ray Kurzweil... You read it for the ideas, the unique, fabulous thought provoking ideas that the author presents.

I mention this because the ideas that Kurzweil is presenting are so COMPELLING, that they reach out and grab you. Every page has something new and important that you need to know if you are into Futurology, and who isn't. The book basically lays out a chronological timetable of the future of computers, artificial intelligence and when you really come right down to it, MACHINE INTELLIGENCE.

Kurzweil believes that eventually machine intelligence will overtake human intelligence, and he lays it out step-by-step, and decade-by-decade. He also gives the reader an overview of the growth of computer power via Moore's Law since the inception.

Reverse engineering the human brain and running various kinds of virtual brains on supercomputers...

Implanting intellectual aids in the brain which temselves are controlled by thought...

- these things are beginning to happen now. It's not as if I am referring to something in a 1980's sci-fi novel.

[Newfie]

I'm following scientific stories and seeing trends everyday. I see it as a natural and extremely productive pursuit. I see it as part of irrepressible Human Nature. It's a fact, to me, that people adapt themselves and modify their environment. This adaptation leads somewhere.

The billions of whip-smart, educated souls in China and India can be perfectly employed in Science & Technology because it's a never-ending gold mine. If energy is the priority, I think some real innovation can occur. There's a lot of built up intellectual ammunition over there.

I can't wait til NIF fires up, even if the first few tries are duds. I just think there's something incredibly valuable and important stuff there to discover.

I think we are looking at a huge build-out that can't be pulled off in the old American style but MUST be accomplished nevertheless. There will be great American-Chinese cooperation.

As far as oil goes, what Michael Lynch just wrote. I listen to those voices on oil too. They have a pretty good case. No one seems very frightened about impending doom outside of places like this site.

There's no reason to believe in PO doom because there's no good evidence that it is inevitable. And when you look around, you see big political changes, economic instability, a desire to cooperate. You also see, like a said, I mind-boggling explosion of impossibly advanced sci/tech. You have to ignore all that as a potent force if you want to think doomerish.

At some point, if machine intelligence appears, machine intelligence itself can peer into the future as well and affect future outcomes. There are strong trends in this direction. Also, it looks doable that brain enhancements will be possible. This research will be a potent force - because having greater cognition will always be a kind of holy grail. Once the brain gives up some of its secrets, they will be applied. No doubt about it. Because it's an evolutionary thing. An opportunity.

Just the act of exploring these opportunities changes future outcomes. You can never look into the future and be certain about anything long-range. You can only speculate. But then if your speculation becomes a meme, it changes the future you were thinking about in the first place.

Car, Thanks for the explanation. I don't agree with your optimism but I don't see the point in trying to dissuade you from your beliefs.

My personal belief is that the advances you cite do not consititue "evolution" in any sense. And the advances are fueled by, well fuel. Let us hope you are more correct than I.

[Newfie]

I'll try. We have good evidence that the periodic table is more or less a good representation of what we know about the atomic structure of everything in our universe. We also know Carbon is critical to almost every form of life we have encountered so far. In fact we could say all advanced life forms employ the element of Carbon - it is a key element.

In the periodic table you notice Carbons neighbours, Nitrogen and Phosphorus, Oxygen and Sulphur...we know these elements are building blocks for life. Oh, and look - right below Carbon is Silicon...

I rest my case, we are well underway to "something else".

Pablonite, Your just trying to be sarcastic, right?

I mean, you don't really think what you said makes any sense, do you?