[stu]

Could we have another revolution on Russia's doorstep? After civilian uprisings in Georgia and Ukraine, Kyrgyztan could be following the same path.

The reason that this is very important is because this could spark a similiar chain of events in Capian Sea countries. If this were to happen then the geopolitical impact on Russia would be huge because then it would start to lose influence in it's former Soviet territory and this could spark change within Russia itself.

It also helps the West get hold over the resources in that region. Kyrgyztan: Is it another Ukraine or Georgia CNN

Mass protests are under way in the south of Kyrgyzstan -- the third such upheaval in a former Soviet republic following Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" and the "Rose Revolution" in Georgia.
The following are points of similarity and difference between the Kyrgyz unrest and what took place in Ukraine and Georgia.

Protestors seize government buildings in Kyrgyztan. The Globe and Mail

More than 17,000 people rallied in Kyrgyzstan on Monday, seizing government buildings in the latest protests demanding the resignation of Soviet-era President Askar Akayev over allegations of election fraud.
Some analysts have suggested Kyrgyzstan is ripe for an outburst of mass protest similar to the peaceful revolutions that have swept two other former Soviet republics over the past two years: Georgia and Ukraine.

[stu]

REVOLUTIONARY MOMENTUM BUILDS IN SOUTHERN KYRGYZSTAN

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/i ... 2105.shtml

President Askar Akayev’s administration appears to be losing its grip on key provinces in southern Kyrgyzstan, as anti-government protesters seized control of the airports in Osh and Jalal-Abad. The heads of law-enforcement bodies in Osh also have reportedly thrown their support behind an opposition-led "People’s Power" shadow government.

[stu]

Kyrgyzstan on the brink

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/GC23Ag01.html

Kyrgyzstan President Askar Akaev's office said on Monday the president has suggested that election officials and the judiciary should investigate reports of ballot fraud.

The statement rejects allegations of widespread fraud in the February 27 and March 13 polls. But it quotes Akaev as saying the matter should be probed in those regions where election results have sparked the most controversy.

Fergana's ghosts haunt Central Asia

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/GC24Ag01.html

At a joint press conference in Paris last Friday, after the summit meeting of Russia and its "authoritative European partners" - France, Germany and Spain - President Vladimir Putin posed a meaningful question about "color" revolutions. In the presence of French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, Putin pointedly asked, "The West actively supported President [Eduard] Shevardnadze [in Georgia] over a period of many years. Why was it necessary to topple him through revolution? And if it was necessary to topple him through revolution, then we can't help but ask [whom] the West was supporting and why."

CENTRAL ASIAN LEADERS REACT TO DEVELOPMENTS IN KYRGYZSTAN

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/i ... 205a.shtml

A new specter is haunting Central Asia’s authoritarian-minded leaders -- the specter of people’s power.

Dual Power Scenario Takes Hold of Kyrgyzstan

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/i ... 2205.shtml

A "dual power" scenario has taken hold in Kyrgyzstan, where President Askar Akeyev’s administration maintains control of the northern part of the country and his political opponents wield authority in the South. No end to the standoff appeared imminent. Akayev on March 22 characterized recent developments in southern Jalal-Abad and Osh provinces, where opposition protesters have established provisional governing bodies, as a coup. The president, at the same time, did not appear to possess the means to force a solution to the crisis on the opposition.

[nth]

I agree. This will have major repurcusions.

Caspian Sea is supposed to alleviate our dependence on Middle East.
Well, by gosh... Caspian region is just as violatile.

Armenians don't get along with the Turks in that region. You have states with dictators like Kazakhstan and you have fledging democracies.

Even if the pundits are right and that PO is not right around the corner, our oil is in very dangerous political waters.

[stu]

Kyrgyz president's palace overrun

Anti-government protesters have overrun the presidential palace, the White House, in Kyrgyzstan's capital Bishkek.
Hundreds flooded into the compound as police opposition melted away, waving a flag from a second floor window and scattering documents, reporters said.

Analysis: Why Kyrgyzstan matters

The outside world has been watching events unfolding in Kyrgyzstan with a mixture of excitement and fear.
Excitement because this could be the beginning of another "velvet revolution" in a former Soviet country

[nth]

I am not so sure this is good for US.
US military bases are on high alert.

The oil picture may change yet again.

[maverickdoc]

Stu, What is the geopolitical significance of Kyrgyztan? oil? military bases? I know they have a border with china, pipeline possibilities?

[RdSnt]

You need to keep this activity in perspective with regards to the activity around the whole area of the Caspian Sea.
I'm a bit surprised at the lack of response, so far, by the Soviets. Their most modern naval fleet is based in the Caspian. This whole area backs right up against Russia, there is no buffer zone, it is the buffer zone.
You cannot look at what's going on in this region without seeing the hand of the US deep in it.
Russia and/or China are going to have to respond soon.

[maverickdoc]

Secret report of the U.S. Ambassador to Kyrgyz Republic.

[Lugal]

Where did you get that?

[chargrove]

Holy sh*t. Is that real?

Man, I hope that's fake. I don't need any more crap to worry about right now, I've got enough as it is.

Please let that be fake. Please let that be fake.

[chargrove]

Found the full text here, including that same image. That page is just the conclusion; read the whole thing:

http://fairuse.1accesshost.com/news4/kabar1.html

[MarioPro]

[URL=http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/biog/30311.htm]Ambassador Stephen M. Young
officially

Ambassador Stephen M. Young's
Interview in "Argumenty i Fakty"[/URL]
On January 27, 2005, Ambassador Stephen M. Young
met with Gennady Pavliuk, Editor-in-Chief of Argumenty
i Fakty, in the library of [URL=http://www.usemb-bishkek.rpo.at/amb_interview.htm]the U.S. Embassy in Bishkek,
Kyrgyzstan[/URL], for an interview, which was published
in the newspaper’s February 2 issue.

"It is against our law to do that"
We support the people. Our goal is not to interfere in the selection
by the Kyrgyz people of their candidates, but to give them the tools
through some of our programs to understand the issues and to
strengthen the integrity of the election process itself. But we do not
support political candidates and we do not support political parties in
Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, or in any country. It is against our law to do that.

However, in addition to our support of the inking, we are providing
$320,00 to train local election commission members in preparation
for the elections, $100,000 to train local observers for the elections,
and also $300,000 to distribute through local NGOs and independent
media outlets for voter education. All of which is a part of a process
of strengthening the integrity of these elections, not to interfere in the
actual selection of candidates.

[MarioPro]

Holy sh*t. Is that real?
Man, I hope that's fake.
I don't need any more crap to worry about right now,
I've got enough as it is.
Please let that be fake. Please let that be fake.

[URL=http://antiwar.com/paul/?articleid=1526]National Endowment for Democracy:
Paying to Make Enemies of America [/URL]
by Rep. Ron Paul
October 11, 2003
(Ron Paul is a Republican Congressman from Texas.
He was the 1988 Libertarian Party candidate for President.)
The misnamed National Endowment for Democracy [NED)
is nothing more than a costly program that takes US taxpayer
funds to promote favored politicians and political parties abroad.
What the NED does in foreign countries, through its recipient
organizations the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the
International Republican Institute (IRI), would be rightly illegal
in the United States. The NED injects "soft money" into the
domestic elections of foreign countries in favor of one party
or the other. Imagine what a couple of hundred thousand dollars
will do to assist a politician or political party in a relatively poor
country abroad. It is particularly Orwellian to call US manipulation
of foreign elections "promoting democracy." How would Americans
feel if the Chinese arrived with millions of dollars to support certain
candidates deemed friendly to China? Would this be viewed as a
democratic development?

In an excellent study of the folly of the National Endowment for
Democracy, Barbara Conry notes that:
"NED, which also has a history of corruption and financial
mismanagement, is superfluous at best and often destructive.
Through the endowment, the American taxpayer has paid for
special-interest groups to harass the duly elected governments
of friendly countries, interfere in foreign elections, and foster
the corruption of democratic movements...

"...the controversy surrounding NED questions the wisdom of
giving a quasi-private organization the fiat to pursue what is
effectively an independent foreign policy under the guise of
'promoting democracy.' Proponents of NED maintain that a
private organization is necessary to overcome the restraints
that limit the activities of a government agency, yet they insist
that the American taxpayer provide full funding for this initiative.
NED's detractors point to the inherent contradiction of a publicly
funded organization that is charged with executing foreign policy
(a power expressly given to the federal government in the
Constitution) yet exempt from nearly all political and administrative
controls...

"...In the final analysis, the endowment embodies the most negative
aspects of both private aid and official foreign aid – the pitfalls of
decentralized 'loose cannon' foreign policy efforts combined with the
impression that the United States is trying to 'run the show' around
the world."

The National Endowment for Democracy is dependent on the US
taxpayer for funding, but because NED is not a government agency,
it is not subject to Congressional oversight. It is indeed a heavily
subsidized foreign policy loose cannon.
NED News Watch

[MarioPro]

Trojan Horse
"The National Endowment for Democracy was set up in
the early 1980s under President Reagan in the wake of
all the negative revelations about the CIA in the second
half of the 1970s. The idea was that the NED would do
somewhat overtly what the CIA had been doing covertly
for decades, and thus, hopefully, eliminate the stigma
associated with CIA covert activities."
-- William Blum, American historian

[savethehumans]

Just printed off "the whole thing," chargrove; I will read it all later. I can tell you NOW that it won't surprise me: empires have always had their fingers in regional politics/social issues; they do it to make sure they keep, or GET, their influence to be the predominant operating point of said region. It is the less-bloody, more-covert aspect of the (Resource) Wars we fight to retain imperial "superiority" over the rest of the world.

When I read about the uprising, I wondered about what our role in it was; this info will tell me the sordid details, I'm sure. Thank you for alerting us.

[MarioPro]

[URL=http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=5331]
The Lesson of Kyrgyzstan


U.S. to Central Asian leaders:
Get with the program, or get on a plane[/URL]
When the Kyrgyz parliament took a critical look at
U.S. military operations in Iraq, and some wondered
aloud whether the U.S. base in their country might
have negative consequences for them, Mr. Kadyrbekov
was quick to warn that Kyrgyzstan ought not to risk
alienating its chief benefactor:
"Kyrgyzstan's position on the Iraq issue may influence
Washington's policies, and we might be deprived of
financial aid which we cannot do without."
That's a good dog!

Unlike Islam Karimov, the Supreme Leader of Uzbekistan,
who has been gung-ho on the U.S. war effort in Iraq,
President Akayev did not take direction well, or, at least,
not well enough. Akayev was too adept at playing off the
U.S. against Russia and China, and, as one analyst put it
in a 2002 paper:
"It may not be the case that Kyrgyzstan needs the United
States as much as the United States needs Kyrgyzstan.
Kyrgyzstan has credible defense partner alternatives, and
if the United States wants Kyrgyz support for its activities
in the region, there may be limits to the pressure it can
apply for political change."
Except, of course, when it comes to regime change.
But why would the U.S. move to topple the "president"
of this impoverished backwater, a country with no oil, no
abundance of other natural resources (except lots of water),
and one that certainly represents no threat to the mighty
U.S.? Part of the answer may lie in Kyrgyzstan's strategic
position and the future of the U.S. air base, as detailed in
this interesting news story from February:
"Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Askar Aitmatov said yesterday
that American AWACS reconnaissance planes will not be
deployed at the Ganci air base outside the Kyrgyz capital,
Bishkek. Aitmatov made the statement after a trip to Moscow.
Some observers say the Kyrgyz government's decision was
made to please Russia, with the aim of gaining the Kremlin's
support ahead of February 27 parliamentary elections and
the presidential election in October."
Source: [URL=http://www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=5331]
Antiwar.com[/URL] (March 25, 2005)

[URL=http://soj.dailykos.com/story/2005/3/17/15358/3049]This revolution is
NOT being televised
[/URL]
If you want to know why international funding and training
made the Rose (Rep. of Georgia) and Orange (Ukraine)
Revolutions successful, you need to know only one thing
- in today's world, a successful revolution must be televised.
Unfortunately for the people of Kyrgyzstan, the television
cameras from the west are missing. Everything else is in place
- a long-ruling, authoritarian, corrupt leader, rigged elections,
a restless population and demonstrations in the street.
If the world was paying attention, we might be able to get
Kyrgyzstan into the democratic column. Alas...
Source:[URL=http://soj.dailykos.com/story/2005/3/17/15358/3049]
Daily KOS[/URL], 16 March 2005

SEE ALSO:
[URL=http://www.newscentralasia.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=1091] EARLY WARNING
Orange-Rose Syndrome:
Early Symptoms Guide
for Central Asia [/URL]
Source:[URL=http://www.newscentralasia.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=1091]
News Central Asia[/URL], 15 December 2004

[Chicagoan]

^The story is getting attention though. It was on the front page of the Chicago Tribune. It would not be that bad if the regime did fall though. It is a holdover from the Soviet era. Even if the CIA is involved does not mean the country will become a US lapdog. It seems like it did not work for Ukraine. We will just have to wait and see.

[MarioPro]

Geopolitics at Heart of Kyrgyzstan Unrest
(MosNews, March 23, 2005)
Akayev in Russia - source
Interfax, March 26, 2005
Coup in Kyrgyzstan illegitimate: Putin
AFP / The Peninsula (Qatar), March 26, 2005
Fall of regimes in Central Asia
Khaleej Times Online, March 25, 2005
Putin: Revolution in Kyrgyzstan "was not a surprise" for Russia
Arka (Armenia), March 25, 2005
Kyrgyz Upheaval No Surprise for Russia — Putin
MosNews, March 25, 2005
Putin Names Spin Doctor to Counter CIS Revolutions
MosNews, March 23, 2005
Geopolitics at Heart of Kyrgyzstan Unrest
MosNews, March 23, 2005

[Euric]

http://fairuse.1accesshost.com/news4/kyrgyzletter.jpg

I'm sure this new effort to bring democracy to these countries comes equipped with voter fraud. That is give the people a false vision of democracy by telling them they have a right to vote and offer them competing candidates but behind the scenes assure a candidate loyal to US interests is always the winner.

No wonder the Chinese and Russians are eager to lure the US into a war with Iran or to see the oil currency switch away from the dollar. By such actions in these former Soviet Republics, the is US literally picking a fight with Russia and China. This is not a good sign at all.