[firestarter]

This once again shows that nobody knows how much the cartel really has got behind the curtains. It's a cartel for a reason, you know.

In the words of David Hume, "seeing is believing".

In the words of seasoned crude oil traders, "seeing is believing".

A so called 2 mil barrel stash of crude doesn't shake peak oil off its large empirical foundation even a weensie bit.

I SEE $75 oil in April along with $3+ a gal gas. From OPEC all I see is loads of hot air. We'll see how the traders react to this hot air come later this evening. My guess is that those in the know will at most get a decent chuckle out of Kuwait's "good" news.

[JustinFrankl]

It's a cartel for a reason, you know.

Penetrating insight.

We must be honest and fair and state clearly that Peak Oil is based on these unknowns. People who are new to the subject should know this from the start: "Peak Oil" as it is presented by the "Peak Oil community" (if there is such a thing) is based on pure speculation.

There's nothing speculative about the peaking in production of a finite, unrenewable resource. Your comment is at best cornucopian, at worst disinformation.

People who are new to the PO community should realize that statements like Lorenzo's attempt to confuse and cloud the issue, and are somewhat troll-like. Peak Oil is not speculation, it is real, and it will affect everyone greatly in an adverse way. Read, think, prepare.

[Concerned]

This once again shows that nobody knows how much the cartel really has got behind the curtains. It's a cartel for a reason, you know.

We must be honest and fair and state clearly that Peak Oil is based on these unknowns. People who are new to the subject should know this from the start: "Peak Oil" as it is presented by the "Peak Oil community" (if there is such a thing) is based on pure speculation.

Peak Oil is NOT speculation. The specific date clearly is was it last year 2005 will it be this year 2006 will it be 2020 or 2030 as per USGS.

Then if you care to factor in technology that changes the situation regards the Peak extraction date and also the effects due to more rapid depletion.

Care to factor in growth also that increases consumption, what about conservation or periods of recession?

Definately a moving target regards a specific date on the Peaking of oil extraction globally. It would be niave to assume that the inability to predict the specific date of this event, means that oil wont peak.

[rogerhb]

Duh. Kuwait calls its back pocket "Iraq."

Do you remember the Simpson's episode where the Springfield school struck oil? It ran out when an oil company set up a huge diagonal derrick next to the school....

I remember one of Iraq's original complaints on Kuwait was it was drilling somewhat outside of it's borders...

[bobcousins]

This once again shows that nobody knows how much the cartel really has got behind the curtains. It's a cartel for a reason, you know.

We must be honest and fair and state clearly that Peak Oil is based on these unknowns. People who are new to the subject should know this from the start: "Peak Oil" as it is presented by the "Peak Oil community" (if there is such a thing) is based on pure speculation.

I think that's a good point. Even Simmons is backtracking on his earlier dire predictions.

The purpose of OPEC is to keep oil prices high, and share the wealth among its members. They are more concerned about maintaining a long term source of income. They have absolutely no incentive to pump any more than they need, in order to "disprove" PO for the convenience of skeptical doomers.

[miraculix]

The Iraq scenario seems to be an explation for the extra 2mb/d - one can not reject that flat out.

I am not sure about the logistics invoved - well, there was this dull movie w/ Christian Slater that had this sort of thing as premise - selling oil from country A as oil coming from country B.

The more I think about it the more ingenious I feel this could be.

Nobody, other than the US government has knowledge of the Iraqi state of production. To divert some 2 mb/d is no small feat. Nonetheless, all the money there is to be made under the hand - just to tempting to resist.

Plus, it makes good news - and ammunition to debunk those "crazy" PO alarmists.

The up side would be, that we are really being taken for a ride by Big oil and OPEC.
Not that it would make PO less likely to occur, but maybe we do have some breathing room after all. That could not be a bad thing - could it?
I am desperately trying to convince myself that USGS somehow more right.

[lorenzo]

This once again shows that nobody knows how much the cartel really has got behind the curtains. It's a cartel for a reason, you know.

In the words of David Hume, "seeing is believing".

In the words of seasoned crude oil traders, "seeing is believing".

Sure, and let's definitely apply the same wisdom to Peak Oil. Seeing is believing.


[Eww, it will be 'too late' by then, won't it? That's what makes 'Peak Oil' such a great seller.]

[lakeweb]

Sure, and let's definitely apply the same wisdom to Peak Oil. Seeing is believing.

You tell me when you have seen enough...

Best, Dan.

[peripato]

I think a test of this speculation will be to see if OPEC kicks out a extra 2mbd in the next quarter

Nope, looks like they've gone and changed their minds again;
"OPEC has decided it won't increase its crude oil output despite record high oil prices. Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi said the reason for high prices is not from a shortage of supply and that the market determines the oil price."

VOA News

I don't know if we're there yet but if it looks like a duck, and walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck...
"Opec, the source of more than a third of the world’s oil, concluded at talks that raising its 28m barrels per day output ceiling would not rein in runaway prices." Priceless!

Analysts agreed. “Opec can’t do anything about the upside to the market. They don’t have much scope left for managing,” said Michael Coleman, MD of hedge fund Aisling Analytics." All aboard the runaway demand train - toot toot!

The Economic Times

[Doly]

Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi said the reason for high prices is not from a shortage of supply and that the market determines the oil price.

Yes, the market determines the price by the law of supply and demand... so you can blame high prices on a shortage of supply or an excess of demand, depending how you look at it. Which is just about the same difference as there is between a glass half full and half empty.

[M_B_S]

[web]http://www.kuwaittimes.net/Navariednews.asp?dismode=article&artid=2126964756[/web]

[Colorado-Valley]

Welcome to Clusterf*ck Nation ... Kuwait edition!

[Aaron]

Kuwaiti reserves were only half of the announced figure of 100 billion barrels. PIW also claimed that proven reserves amounted only to 24.2 billion barrels, citing internal Kuwaiti records it claimed it had seen.

OPEC members overstating reserves?

I'm shocked!

Mike Lynch has assured us that OPEC can expand their production at will, and any shortfalls are logistics problems.

As I have stated many times on this board, the price hikes we have seen in recent months/years are nothing compared to what we can expect as it becomes apparent that virtually all of OPEC stated reserve numbers are pure fiction.

As OPEC & Saudi Arabian oil goes, so goes the world.

Bring a gun and a shovel... you're gonna need both.

[FireJack]

I wonder if the actual reserves of opec countries will become a major topic someday. Its seems more likely they'll just keep lying until there is nothing left.

[Zardoz]

I'm really getting tired of waking up every morning, dragging myself to the keyboard, and almost every damned day getting another piece of evidence confirming the worst fears of the most pessimistic doomers.

This just sucks.

[cudabachi]

Reprinted so you don´t have to keep scrolling back and forth to read the damned thing:

MPs call for cap on oil production


By B Izzak
KUWAIT: Five lawmakers yesterday filed a draft law calling on the government to limit oil production in line with actual proven reserves, which have been claimed to be lower than the officially stated figure of 100 billion barrels. The four-article bill stipulates that the new production figure should not exceed the percentage of actual output in the past two fiscal years divided by proven reserves.

The bill was signed by MPs Ahmad Al-Saadoun, Mussallam Al-Barrak, Mohammad Al-Khalifa, Hassan Jowhar and Waleed Al-Jari, all members of the Popular Action Bloc.

The draft law was filed in light of the controversy raised recently on the actual size of proven Kuwaiti oil reserves after the Petroleum Intelligence Weekly (PIW) reported in January that Kuwaiti reserves were only half of the announced figure of 100 billion barrels. PIW also claimed that proven reserves amounted only to 24.2 billion barrels, citing internal Kuwaiti records it claimed it had seen.

Kuwaiti oil authorities have denied the report, with Energy Minister Sheikh Ahmad Fahd Al-Sabah saying that the report spoke only about 31 reservoirs which were being used by Kuwait while ignoring 74 other untapped reservoirs. MP Saadoun had sent a lengthy question to Sheikh Ahmad inquiring about the report but the question has not yet been answered.

Explaining the bill, the MPs said that Kuwait produced slightly below one billion barrels of crude oil in each of the past two fiscal years. Based on official figures on reserves of 100 billion barrels, the actual production each year amounted to just one per cent of the reserves. It added that actual production in the coming years must not exceed one percentage point of proven reserves based on authenticated official figures which must be supplied by the energy ministry to the National Assembly.

It further clarified that if Kuwaiti reserves were more than 100 billion barrels, the production ceiling will increase and similarly if proven reserves were less, the production ceiling must be reduced accordingly.

But it left the door open to change the percentage in accordance with Kuwaiti economic interests. To become effective, the bill must be approved by the Assembly and endorsed by HH the Amir.

[shakespear1]

Once the production drops enough it will be Very hard to lie

[Zardoz]

...so you don´t have to keep scrolling back and forth to read the damned thing...

Annoying as hell, isn't it?

Say hello to Mr. Linky

EDIT -

What a load of crap:

OPEC chief: Surplus capacity to triple

Nobody believes these lying cretins anymore:

OPEC President Edmund Daukoru told Toshihiro Nikai that surplus capacity will be raised to 4 million barrels and later to 6 million barrels per day from current 2 million, Japanese officials said.

Daukoru indicated the need for OPEC members to increase investment in production capacity to stabilize global oil markets, but did not refer to specific measures to do so, the officals said.

It remains uncertain whether OPEC nations will actually increase capacity, observers said.

"Uncertain" is right...

[Grimnir]

Didn't Kuwait announce a big reserve increase a week or two ago? And didn't they halve them a few months before that? Are these adjustments cumulative or are they just adjusting the adjustments?