[Graeme]

Israel's cleantech mega-plan

"The global interest in Israel's energy R&D and technology is out of all proportion to the size of the country," says Dr. Eli Opper, former Chief Scientist and now chairman of the Eureka High Level Group (HLG). Israel currently holds the chairmanship of Eureka, the European R&D program, of which more than 40 countries are members. According to Dr. Opper, Israel's technological achievements were an important consideration in the award of the chairmanship. "The world looks for two things in Israel," he says, "R&D and technology. Our manufacturing and marketing capabilities are of far less interest to it."


Under the national plan, a program of encouragement for investment in venture-backed companies active in alternatives to oil. The program, which has been allocated government funding of \NIS 400 million, will enable the financing of pilot installations to test new technologies, and will promote implementation of the new technologies in industry. In addition, a NIS 1.5 million annual prize will be awarded by the prime minister for world innovation in alternatives to oil.

The future scientific activity in Israel will be reinforced by collaboration programs and agreements with foreign countries. Preference will be given to countries with high research and technological capabilities, and to countries with the strongest interest in finding alternatives to oil. The government's decision specifically mentions countries like India and China, where the number of motorized vehicles is expected to grow substantially in the coming years.

globes

[LateGreatPlanetEarth]

i'm recommending adenf. buy and hold thru 2028.

[peeker01]

Every time this happens, and it is happening around the world, peak oil is pushed further and further back. As the world converts to cng and lng for transportation, oil will come back down to
commodity pricing.

http://www.energybiz.com/article/11/01/ ... -discovery

[jeezlouise]

Every time this happens, and it is happening around the world, peak oil is pushed further and further back.

How's that? Theoretically, if natty gas use as an oil substitute becomes widespread, oil demand drops. Doesn't that hasten peak oil?

[peeker01]

I don't know. It's your theory, explain it to me.

[jeezlouise]

It's your implication that needs explaining - increased supplies of natural gas delays peak oil somehow. How does finding more gas lead to increased rates of oil extraction?

[peeker01]

If demand plummets, and it will if they keep the price high, then cheaper alternatives such
as cng and lng will kill the crude market, making the upper limit of production only theoretical.

Remember, petroleum killed the whale oil market. Don't think for a minute it isn't vulnerable
to a cheap and plentiful product.

[Outcast_Searcher]

This is an example of how difficult it is to make economic projections on a macro (especially global) scale.

IMO, it could go either way.

(The obvious liklihood that more energy alternatives, less oil use, yadda yadda is the "normal expected" outcome, of course).

But, as a POSSIBLE alternative scenario:

No question, with Chindia and general third world rapid BAU growth (IF POSSIBLE, i.e. economic conditions permit), then ALL the energy we can get from ALL sources will be in demand globally, if the price is "tolerable".

If LOTS of CHEAP natural gas can compete with oil (say for use in big rig trucks, buses, and large ground craft in general -- leaving lots more heating oil and diesel available, for example), this could help hold the price of crude down, all other things being equal.

To the extent that (much) lower crude prices stimulate the global economy -- wala, you have higher production of crude, via higher net demand.

Let's use a (ridiculous extreme) example to make the point:

A). Without the plentiful cheap natural gas, crude oil prices go to about $200 a barrel in a decade, on average.
B). With plentiful cheap natural gas, crude oil prices go to about $100 a barrel in a decade on average. (i.e. Nat gas gets used a LOT for transpo fuel).

Over the following decade with THOSE two average crude oil prices, which scenario will cause the global economy to be ABLE and WILLING to burn (and therefore extract) more oil -- thus hastening peak oil's effects? (If you said "A", go back to math AND economics class).

...

I'm not saying this, or anything close will happen. I'm saying it's tough to make an accurate or even intelligent forecast, given ALL the complex interrelated DYNAMIC factors (including irrational people and unpredictable rates of technological advances) that make up the global economy.

That's why economics is called the dismal science, and the joke that "if you laid 10,000 economist end-to-end they couldn't reach a conclusion" is pervasive.

[peeker01]

That's exactly right, only the future knows for sure. However, I think I am going to stop lugging
50 lb bags of rice around for a while. I think po is a ways off.

[Cloud9]

The natural gas they found is from the U.S. Congress on holiday.

[dsula]

It's your implication that needs explaining - increased supplies of natural gas delays peak oil somehow. How does finding more gas lead to increased rates of oil extraction?

He means the EFFECT of po is delayed.

[peeker01]

It's your implication that needs explaining - increased supplies of natural gas delays peak oil somehow. How does finding more gas lead to increased rates of oil extraction?

He means the EFFECT of po is delayed.

No, I mean Peak Oil. The more they dig, the more they seem to find.

[jeezlouise]

If demand plummets, and it will if they keep the price high, then cheaper alternatives such
as cng and lng will kill the crude market, making the upper limit of production only theoretical.

Yeah, but it still peaks at a certain historical time. A peak is a peak, regardless of the reason; the reasons for the absolute upper limit of production capacity will always be subject to debate. My question is simple, how does new nat gas supply disrupt the timing of peak oil? It's apples to oranges. You've asserted that in aggregate these types of finds will delay peak oil considerably, my position is that decreased demand for oil will reduce extraction rates and thereby speed up the peak. So what are we really discussing? Right now I'd have to agree with Dsula and infer that you meant that the effects of peak oil will be mitigated by these nat gas finds, i.e. economic contraction, war, famine, dogs and cats living together, etc.

[peeker01]

You are repeating yourself. I've answered your question. I don't know how else to say it.

[peeker01]

Oil quadrupled since 2008, but what's your point? People have become quite accustomed to
the failure of large advances in crude oil prices. I suppose that large scale conversion will take
place when the traders find a way to sustain their price gouging, or legitimate PO occurs.

Worldwide, there are 10 million natural gas vehicles, and growing every day. LNG is being
developed for long haul trucks, and eventually passenger cars. Remember, the technology
for LNG storage is very similar to that of liquid hydrogen, so it won't be wasted research
if and when natgas converts to hydrogen.

The overarching point here, Pstar, is that there are technologies waiting to cover crude
if and when crude peters out. The conversion may seem slow, but when Iran goes to war,
it will happen in short order.

This isn't exactly my idea you know, Boon Pickens has been talking about it for quite some
time. Besides, engines run about 4 times longer and pollute about 90 percent less.

Now, your turn P, see if you can manage a response without an ad hom

[TheDude]

Iran went to war already, in 1980, with Iraq. No rush to CNG then; automakers did embrace diesel in super sloppy fashion, though. White House Announces 'Everything Great In Iraf' - YouTube

100 years of consumption, right - consumption for Israel, who don't really consume much energy in the first place; BP don't even keep track of them, just lumping them in with the rest of Other Middle East. As it happens EIA says their NG consumption skyrocketed 124% in 2009, so this Leviathan is just in time, unlike posting this article, which is based on Dec news and was published in Jan. Have you heard that Libya is in the midst of a civil war, too?

[Cloud9]

It costs about $700 to convert a small pickup. Does anybody have information on what the range reduction would be?

[peeker01]

Range is an issue, due to the CNG being a gas and not a liquid like gasoline. That's why most conversions are dual fuel. I recently talked to a cab driver and he said his car, a Ford Crown
Victoria had a range of about a hundred miles. Doesn't sound like much, but when you consider
Toyota is selling their plug in electric for 30K and it goes 13 miles per charge, it's not bad.

Gasoline is an amazing substance, but if you believe some, it won't be around too much longer
at a reasonable price. I would like the option of burning both.

[timmac]

T. Boone Pickens plans for 8 million trucks to run on natural gas

Texas billionaire T. Boone Pickens unveiled the Pickens Plan in 2008 to decrease our reliance on foreign oil. He recently tweaked the plan, shifting his focus from wind energy to natural gas and from cars to 18-wheelers and buses. Pickens is a big advocate of H.R. 1835, legislation introduced last April, which would offer significant tax credits for buyers of natural gas cars and their manufacturers and which would set regulations for vehicles purchased by the federal government. (Scroll down to see the Pickens Plan’s latest ad.)

I talked to Pickens last week as he flew to Orlando for the National Automobile Dealers Association convention, where he was a keynote speaker.

In your new commercial you say, “Go back to sleep America, the oil crisis is over.” Then you hear Middle Eastern-sounding music, and you say, “I don’t think so,” and you tell us that we’re importing as much as 70 percent of our oil, much of it from enemies. What kind of feedback are you getting on this?

Good. It’s pretty straightforward. The Arabs don’t like it.

http://www.smartplanet.com/blog/pure-genius/t-boone-pickens-plans-for-8-million-trucks-to-run-on-natural-gas/2102