Oil megaprojectsdolanbaker wrote:I get the impression that this jump in production is simply down to a bunch of projects that were started during the 2008 price spike, all coming on stream at the same time. If so then should we expect a sharp decline when they come to an end in the next year or so?
Mindlessly opposing cornys, ignoring EIA and IEA data when it doesn't support you assertions
meemoe_uk wrote:Potentially 96Mpbd by 2035 " < as long as it's developed >. It sounds to me Fatih was saying it won't be geologic\natural issues which prevent future much higher supply of oil, but maybe political\economic.
It's just one of many PO hype pieces chucked into the media to fool as much of the market into the POisNow scam as possible.
Another quick point. The global economy is supposed to be expanding at about 3% per year.88.2mpd average for 4th quarter
The point being; these fields represent the last major effort in SA, fields discovered in the 1960's but shut-in/inactive/held-in-reserve until now. Why? Because the fields are difficult to produce/sell. Khurais contains vanadium, Manifa is heavy, Shaybah is remote in the Rub' Al-Khali/Empty Quarter desert, etc.)
Difficulty translates to expensive (both monetarily and energetically) a characteristic of recent finds. Brazil/Angola/GOM ultra deep water, Caspian Kasagan, biofuels, other non-conventionals, newly/re-registered "reserves" like shale oil, tar sands, TDP, etc ll have their own attendant problems/inefficiencies that render production costs excessive and kill end-user demand in a cyclic fashion. The Law of Receding Horizons tells us this 'high-hanging fruit' will always be too expensive to satisfy our cheap-oil demands. The economy crashes when oil/gdp exceeds 4%.
Next time copywrite it.
They said they were ready to pump 12 mbd. What a joke. But they have been awfully quite since they hit their production peak and export decline.
As if miles of titanium pipes and floating cities don't cost anything. What you consider a mere externality is the PO problem. If we had a better, cheaper, more abundant source of energy to wring the last drops of petroleum from the earth than we'd be home free. But all we have is oil. As long as you dismiss net-energy analysis and EROEI then debating these issues with you is kind of pointless.
Another projection on how much of our power could be produced by renewable energy: A new International Energy Agency assessment of solar power shows that photovoltaics and solar thermal power could provide "most" of the world's electricity and half of all our energy needs by 2060.
The solar findings, set to be published in a report later this year, go beyond the IEA's previous forecast, which envisaged the two technologies meeting about 21 percent of the world's power needs in 2050. The scenario suggests investors able to pick the industry's winners may reap significant returns as the global economy shifts away from fossil fuels. (Bloomberg)
The International Energy Agency (IEA)’s annual World Energy Outlook, due for publication on 9 November, will contain alarming research that the world is on track for a catastrophic rise in global temperatures unless fossil fuel subsidies are cut, energy efficiency is improved, and more countries introduce some form of carbon pricing.
You’ve said in the past that you believe that the world has already passed its ‘peak oil’ moment – the point at which the amount of oil already used outweighs the amount left in the ground. How far past that moment do you think we are, and what are the economic and environmental consequences?
We have said that we have seen the peak of commercial oil. There is still uncommercial oil and other forms coming and we will definitely need oil for our mobility systems for cars, trucks and jets and for our economic daily life to continue. However, one day we will run out of oil - not tomorrow or the day after but one day we will. Given its strategic importance for our societies, it is important to prepare our societies for that very day and try to find alternatives to oil especially in transportation systems. These could be electric cars, hybrid cars, natural gas, or biofuels-driven cars, or putting more emphasis on mass transportation.
When we talk about CO2 emissions, people think directly about coal. But if you look at the numbers, the contribution of oil to global CO2 emissions is only a few percentage points lower than coal. Therefore it needs to be taken closely into consideration. We’re not running out of oil today or tomorrow but we need to prepare ourselves for the day that we do. We have to leave oil before it leaves us.
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