G, without US production - from LTO - world production would be flat from mid 0'5- 1st qtr '14. I haven't proofed this chart but it is through the 1st quarter, sorted by change 05-14; biggest gainers on top and losers on bottom. The lime color at 20k-30k contains all the other countries whose production stayed relatively the same <1k bopd change over that time frame.
Some of those countries at the bottom of the pile are politically constrained and not really peaked: Syria, Iran, Libya and Iraq and somalia (hidden in 'other') are all artificially constrained.
As for the world production declining at 4-5% per year, the journalist (and maybe Dr. Miller) doesn't specify what exactly is declining. If they had said old, legacy well production is declining then yeah, thats within what I always read. We hear all the time about how fast fracked tight shale wells decline; 40-50-60+ percent the first year. Old conventional wells decline too, just much slower (not all the time but most times I think).
But overall production isn't declining 4.5% because there are still new wells left to drill. New little fields or pockets or old fields getting reworked or infilled or whatever, even some big fields waaay deep offshore or up north or wherever. Peak oil doesn't mean there will never be another well drilled or discovery made, just that they won't be enough to keep production increasing. Right now they must be putting 3-4mmbopd of new production online every year to make up for the decline in old well pooping out.
That of course is how it has always been, old wells always decline and are replaced with new ones - its just getting harder to find new locations to drill.
The obvious point to be made is production isn't increasing either, at least not by historic norms. Drilling as fast as they can, they haven't increased production much, again by the historic standard of 2.5% year average. So what comes next is either a surge in production; shale fracking everywhere maybe, or peace could breakout in the muslim world - that would put 3mmbd online quickly, or ... I can't really think of anything else
On the flip side, fracking could peak in the US and not spread, the old giants could really take a tumble. I think 15% of the wells produce 70 of the oil (but don't quote that) and they are oldies but goodies. If a bunch were to flood out over a span of a few years ...
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)