[greenworm]

I hear this question every day. Nobody ever likes my answer. Long term investment is such an absurd concept. The biggest long term trends never maintain unless they are the market i.e. (gs) or hathaway or (goog). A company has to continually adapt or else "fake it" to be a consitent long term investment. Oil, this is just a dollar going bad bounce and is totally ridiculous. If the dollar was in dire straits why isn't all stocks going up? Nobody asks these questions, do they? Gold/oil, you are basically trading the same thing, to say one or the other is better is ridiculous except for time periods where they became decoupled which happened recently where gold jumped to it's usual ratio/price to oil.

Here is the best advice ever. Watch the market everyday and understand why price movements occur, understand why some stocks stay undervalued/understand bull markets, understand how stocks react as they come into reporting earnings, if you don't want it to be that hard, then fork over your money to a broker so he can make his cut.

[Pretorian]

I advise strongly against gold. 70-75% of all gold belongs to 3- 4 organisations, all of them are under control the same group which controls federal reserve bank, so buying gold is supporting them.
Another reason against gold, is that unless you are buying 1/20th or 1/10th ounces, it will be hard to spend them.
If you are filthy rich, buy platinum/palladium/ other platinum group metals, if not stick with silver-nickel-copper.

[toolpusher]

looks like that stupid hedge fund did something predictable - they did something stupid. i said something to my dad this morning - i said, "something strange would not be all that unusual."

i didn't even realize the contradiction til after i said it. there are lessons to be learned but i'll let u make yur own conclusions

[Jack]

It sounds as if Third Point is merely trying to maximize shareholder value. Why should they not do that?

Since this is posted in "Current Energy News", I suppose there is some greater, deeper significance to the SEC 13D filing - though I confess, it eludes me. Perhaps you would care to elaborate?

[FoxV]

oh boy! Hedge fund disaster news. Can't wait to read it

Link?

(geez, no drooling smiling. Somebody needs to create a more PO appropriate Emoticon collection)

edit---
I thought I recognized "Third Point" from somewhere. That's the hedge fund with a A-hole Daniel Loeb in charge.

Somebody posted about Third Point causing a big spike in Pogo a few weeks ago and I added the comment that if a hedge fund has grabbed a hold of it, it was only a matter of time before the company died (The topic was just a stock plug and has been deleted).

So two weeks for Daniel to kill Pogo, that was a bit quicker than I was expecting

[FoxV]

well found the article
Third Point Demands That Pogo Begin Process of Selling the Company and Announces Intent to Elect New Directors

It sounds as if Third Point is merely trying to maximize shareholder value. Why should they not do that?

These hedge fund bullies are armchair quarter backs in the extreme.

This Daniel character sees a 10% decline on an oil field that is expected to decline at 7% to 8% and suddenly he's calling in an axe man on the company's board of directors.

This may all work out with Shareholders getting a nice sack of cash (for their dissolved stocks) but what are the odds of the disputed oil field increasing production after it has been taken over by a bargain hunter (who is buying the field after oil has dropped by 25% and is trending lower)

[Jack]

This may all work out with Shareholders getting a nice sack of cash (for their dissolved stocks) but what are the odds of the disputed oil field increasing production after it has been taken over by a bargain hunter (who is buying the field after oil has dropped by 25% and is trending lower)

Certainly possible. However, notice that much of the company's value is tied up in one field. So - you ask "what if it depletes less than expected." But I can ask, "What if it depletes faster than expected"? Is it prudent to lock up such a large portion of company assets in a single property?

[JBinKC]

I think owning farm land would serve as an obscure decent hedge. Farm land = potential biofuel production and rising agricultural commodity prices.

[Ponce]

Ratio wise silver will go higher than gold.......where it was 66/1 and then 46/1 it is now about 50/1....... forget the paper and buy the solid because some day it will be once again 15/1 (or better) like in 1980.

By the way....... think of Blue Gold.......is the future.

"If you don't hold it, you don't own it"... Ponce

[mmasters]

I'd say have your money where the action is when the big PO related events come, ride the wealth transfers and cash out.

[dr_doom]

I'd say have your money where the action is when the big PO related events come, ride the wealth transfers and cash out.

The only problem with that is you need to really know what you are doing. Day-trading is a great way of losing/making money extremely quickly.

The other caveat is that if/when the shit really does hit the fan, the realworld value of fiat will likely evaporate at a parabolic rate. Do you really want to be trying to cash-out your oil-futures, and then queuing to buy physical gold, when everybody else has had the same idea? No.

As a compromise with your idea, i'd say go 50/50 physical metals / fiat assets.

[Concerned]

Firstly, I know nothing about investing... so forgive me if this is a stupid question.

Presumably, if oil starts getting scarce, the price will rise dramatically. It is said that a 5% shortfall between supply and demand could result in a 400% price increase.

So if you invest alot of money in oil before that happens, won't you do extremely well out of the situation? In effect hedging yourself against price increases?

Surely anyone who believes in imminent PO would have alot of money in oil futures?

Oil is used to to power our economy.

If the price of oil goes up too much it is conceivable that you could have a recession or even depression.

With less economic activity using that oil, prices would go down.

There is no sure bet on the price of oil. I'd say if you saw sustained prices of $150, $180 or $200 oil then you would get your depression and lower oil prices too boot.

[scienceteacher]

I'm shocked that nobody has mentioned USO the oil ETF that tracks the price of West texas Intermediate.

[MrBill]

I'm shocked that nobody has mentioned USO the oil ETF that tracks the price of West texas Intermediate.

RE long only funds & ETFs

As for the price of crude this means sloppy, sloppy trading. The wide contango mean that longs are paying away anywhere from $1 to $2.5 per barrel per month to stay long. At the same time as the wide contango is paying physical oil players to store oil. And the market timers can afford to wait. They can get back into the game in Q3'07 if they need to. There is no reason to be strategically long now if you see low, slow growth going forward. The cost of carry $12-18-24 per year means that $60 oil is not that attractive. A price of $72-78-84 is breakeven. That contango actually works in the shorts favor. They can buy OTM options as insurance just in case.

Trader's Corner 2007

[Eli]

Well the Fed and others are warning about the threat hedge funds pose to the overall market.

I had to look up what a hedge fund actually was but they do not sound good to me after a closer look.

Hedge Funds are not open to the public basically they are a tool of the rich and financial institutions. They make money through very risky means like derivatives and futures markets. The total holdings of hedge funds are approximately 1.9 trillion but they don't stop there. Hedge funds make trades with borrowed money to the tune of about 4 trillion dollars. They are not regulated and make money through what appears to be money changing scams as far as one can tell.

This is not unlike what happened in the 20's during the stock market crash. These guys borrow money and make risky investments, yeah this will end well.

link about locust (hedge funds)

[mmasters]

They have to have a scapegoat when they pull the plug.

[Eli]

Who is "they"?

and who is the "scapegoat"?


These guys own trillions and make money through corporate shenanigans. I would not put it past human greed that one or a group of these dirtballs decided that there is more money to be made by sinking the US economy than there is trying to keep playing it.

Some one posted a nice vid about trading phantom shares which is a favorite play of the hedges. They will actually buy through leverage more shares of a company than actually exist and then short the hell out of it.

[mmasters]

They = the global elite, internationalists

Scapegoat = somebody to blame for the coming US/global financial disaster

Surely there will be a lot of blame to go around so hedge funds will make for one part of it.

[Eli]

Well I don't think scapegoat is the right term when it comes to hedge funds. A scapegoat is someone that is wrongly accused.

The Hedgefunds in no small part will be a big part of the collapse. I wouldn't call them scapegoats, I think it is more accurate to call them greedy lying thieving bastards.

Hedge funds and the global elites are the same thing, this is their last get rich quick scheme before they decided to pull the plug and go for all the power not just the money.

[mmasters]

Well I don't think scapegoat is the right term when it comes to hedge funds. A scapegoat is someone that is wrongly accused.

The Hedgefunds in no small part will be a big part of the collapse. I wouldn't call them scapegoats, I think it is more accurate to call them greedy lying thieving bastards.

Hedge funds and the global elites are the same thing, this is their last get rich quick scheme before they decided to pull the plug and go for all the power not just the money.

There's different flavors of hedge funds. They are in general agents for the rich, only some are agents for the elite. I would guess when it goes down the funds acting as agents for the elite wont be the exposed ones.