[EnemyCombatant]

I hear you Mac, but if things were as dire as some say, then one would expect an early on conservation/rationing BEFORE winter comes.

I don't know the answer. Common sense tells me that if the refineries are down and the oil platforms/rigs are damaged that we have problems. But neither does it make sense for the government to pretend that nothing happened.

Something is missing from this picture.

[thorn]

US uses about 21 milllion barrels/day of crude petroleum. Wouldn't the reported shut Gulf production of 1.5 millon barrels/day be 7% of total?

The gulf accounts for 29% of the nations oil productiuon and over 20% of natural gas, according to the article.

does anyone know what the approximate daily nat. gas consumption is?

pete

Here is some historical data:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/natgas.html

[Typhoon]

How come we haven't experienced gas shortages/rationing -- outside of the Atlanta 2 day school reprieve.

I've heard the excuse of market manipulation, but you can't manipulate gas getting to the gas stations.

We will see gasoline stockpiles start to dwindle -- this should be evident in the next few inventory reports, assuming the data is accurate. However, we have almost 200 million barrels of gasoline and about 305 million barrels of crude oil outside the SPR. It takes a little while before shortages start to show up.

[Drakn]

US uses about 21 milllion barrels/day of crude petroleum. Wouldn't the reported shut Gulf production of 1.5 millon barrels/day be 7% of total?

The gulf accounts for 29% of the nations oil productiuon and over 20% of natural gas, according to the article.

Does he mean 29% refining capacity? The article posted at the top of this forum states just over 20% loss in refining capacity. I'm not sure what was being referred to.

[EnemyCombatant]

Even so, wouldn't it make sense to ration now.
Otherwise, things are not as bad as some may think.

[ChadP]

Sept. 30th update:

Today’s shut-in oil production is 1,467,577 BOPD. This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 97.83% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD.

Today’s shut-in gas production is 7.941BCFPD. This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 79.41% of the daily gas production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 10 BCFPD.

The cumulative shut-in oil production for the period 8/26/05-9/30/05 is 40,828,134 bbls, which is equivalent to 7.457 % of the yearly production of oil in the GOM (approximately 547.5 million barrels).

The cumulative shut-in gas production 8/26/05-9/30/05 is 196.481 BCF, which is equivalent to 5.383% of the yearly production of gas in the GOM (approximately 3.65 TCF).

[frankthetank]

I say let the market be...if nat gas goes to 20 bucks, then that'll force people to conserve.

The number still showing a 53bcf build (from yesterdays report), so historically were still in the game, unless the numbers are BS.

[shortonoil]

Typoon said:

We will see gasoline stockpiles start to dwindle -- this should be evident in the next few inventory reports, assuming the data is accurate. However, we have almost 200 million barrels of gasoline and about 305 million barrels of crude oil outside the SPR. It takes a little while before shortages start to show up.

305 million barrels of crude oil is the total amount of crude in the system. Since it takes approximately 270 mb to fill up the pipe lines and prime the refiners, that leaves us with 35 mb of useable reserve. Less than two weeks. This is down from the 351 mb numbers before Katrina hit.

[ChumpusRex]

Since it takes approximately 270 mb to fill up the pipe lines and prime the refiners

I have to confess I find this hard to believe.

Do you have a source for this figure?

[shortonoil]

EIA Bulletin

Throughout February, U.S. crude oil stocks stayed near the lower operational inventory level of 270 million barrels, gasoline and distillate stocks declined, and crude oil prices stayed around $35 per barrels for WTI.9

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petr ... mpacts.htm

Try a search for "lower operational inventory level +crude +oil". There are several sites discussing this issue.

.

[SchroedingersCat]

305 million barrels of crude oil is the total amount of crude in the system. Since it takes approximately 270 mb to fill up the pipe lines and prime the refiners, that leaves us with 35 mb of useable reserve. Less than two weeks. This is down from the 351 mb numbers before Katrina hit.

We use almost 21 mb/day. That would be less than a two day reserve!

[shortonoil]

.

Since we have lost approx. 20% of our refining capacity we are presently using 16.8 mb/d of crude. With a loss of crude production of 1.5 mb/d we will deplete our 35 mb/d inventory in 11.2 days. Other things like importation of refined products will of course affect this number, but it give us an idea of the pile of S**T we are in.

.

[marko]

Since we have lost approx. 20% of our refining capacity we are presently using 16.8 mb/d of crude. With a loss of crude production of 1.5 mb/d we will deplete our 35 mb/d inventory in 11.2 days. Other things like importation of refined products will of course affect this number, but it give us an idea of the pile of S**T we are in.

Yes, and in 11.2 days, we can replace that 35 mb inventory of crude with imports and, if necessary, more withdrawals from the SPR.

Crude is not the problem. The problems are natural gas and distillates. With distillates, there is already some demand destruction and a ramping up of imports. The tight supply will keep prices high, but I think physical shortages are unlikely in the near term.

As for natural gas, I'm not so sure. We won't know until winter whether we will be facing physical shortages of natural gas. It seems as though prices will be allowed to destroy demand, by encouraging Americans to lower their thermostats dramatically.

[DantesPeak]

Current market prices may give us no advance warning of when a shortage, especially of gasoline, will strike. Futures markets can be influenced by speculators and large buyers/sellers. Major oil companies can coerce the market, when necessary, to avoid price/allocation controls - that could wipe out profits if imposed:

Big Oil Firms Curb Pump Prices,
Put Squeeze on Competitors

By THADDEUS HERRICK
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
October 1, 2005

Major oil companies and refiners, under attack for their soaring profits, are restraining prices at the pump.

The result: Gasoline can be cheaper at branded gas stations operated by companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. or Valero Energy Corp., the nation's largest refiner, than it is at independent service stations. In essence, these giants are using robust refining margins to challenge their competition.

"We've made a decision to lag [behind] the market," said Mary Rose Brown, a spokeswoman for San Antonio-based Valero. Exxon Mobil, of Irving, Texas, said retail prices are determined by a number of factors, including retail competition.

The move is both helping big oil companies deflect political flak amid record profits and putting considerable pressure on their competition, especially big-box retailers and economy gasoline chains. Consumers are unlikely to feel too grateful, because gasoline prices gained after hurricanes Katrina and Rita, which shut down about 20% of U.S. refining capacity. On top of the storms, strikes in France, a leading U.S. supplier, have dimmed import prospects.

More:
http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB1128 ... ts_news_us

[shortonoil]

We have lost approx. 20% of our refineries, or 4.2mb/d of product. We have lost 1.5 mb/d of crude production. That is a total of 5.7 mb/d or 171 mb per month. A super tanker can take 2 mb and takes about three weeks to move from Europe to the US and back. We would therefore need 64 additional super tankers to make up the slack, assuming someone had the product to sell us in the first place. Since the tanker fleet was almost 100% booked before Katrina hit and our port facilities are also damaged our chances of not seeing serious shortages in the near future is almost nil.

[Colorado-Valley]

I saw this report from the gulf at George Ure's urbansurvival.com site this morning.

"Our Houston Bureau guys (a/k/a [email protected] [email protected] ) do an amazing job of keeping me posted on what's going on in the Gulf.  Tonight, on the eve of our departure for the ranchstead, Houston 1 offers this:

"Let me sum up:  Hurricane Ivan destroyed 7 platforms and 100 piplines and 0 rigs.
Katrina & Rita destroyed (so far) 90 platforms and (who knows) pipelines and 100? rigs.

"There are typically around 130 rigs working in the Gulf. Today, there are 23.
"There will be virtually no new exploration in the Gulf for the next year or so, assuming everything stays the way it is right now. Plus, with the rigs left in operation, there are several countries bidding to have them work in their waters. Guess who wins? Highest bidder ...

"Gasoline was up $0.40 at my test location just since last night. Expectations are that it will rise over $1.00 by Sunday night. Two years ago, I could fill my SUV (26 gal tank) for $28. Today, it cost me $28 to fill my buzzie with a 10 gal tank.

"Service companies are strained to the max. There is very little equipment available. Dive equipment, generators, winches and the whole lot were destroyed in the storms. Rentals are going out all over the world to get the equipment to do the job. Right now, everything is on an even keel, but one more surprise could put the whole remediation effort over the edge, as well.

"Still working on the refinery data for you. Don't trust the happy talk. These are eyeball numbers. We are keeping a large wall map up-to-date in the war room. (Oilman1 is at an oil service company that does offshore work - G)

"It's not only bad, it's very bad ..."

[Armageddon]

"Gasoline was up $0.40 at my test location just since last night. Expectations are that it will rise over $1.00 by Sunday night.

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why do you think its going to rise that much all of a sudden ? so another 60 cents by tomorrow night ? we are 2.99 here in st.louis, so i should expect 3.60 by sunday night ? it seems like alot, but it wouldnt suprise me. once the word gets out how bad things really are from the huricanes, i can see 5.00 gas on the horizon.

[seahorse]

I'm a lawyer and represent an over the road truck driver. Yesterday (Friday), he told me diesel prices in Memphis, Tennesse were raised .40 per gallon in one day. I haven't done anything to verify this, but its what I was told.