[Grimnir]

The markets are almost certainly being manipulated. Remember the Canadian study that was posted here just a few weeks ago finding frequent and widespread manipulation of stock indices by the US government? If they ever do it, they'll be doing it now.

[frankthetank]

Oil is way up from its low..nearing 66 last i checked. NG is up over 13 again.

So maybe the markets aren't totally whacked yet!

Bad news from the oil patch

Check out
http://rigzone.com

looks like some rigs took some damage!

[fossil_fuel]

oil is back up a few bucks, and the strong rally which began this morning has been reversed, with the dow now in the red. at the end of last week i bought some october calls on CHK, and i was very worried this morning as i was down quite a bit on these due to the market's lack of reaction to rita. However, i knew that the news of the real extent of the production damage would get out sooner or later, and fortunately i was right.

i think i need to calm down and have more confidence in my investment decisions

[Ming]

Yep.
I bought a couple of gasoline (HU) contracts at a very good price.
These small market irrationalities are precious indeed…

[fossil_fuel]

the margin requirements on NYMEX gasoline contracts are huge, at least by my standards. they should create an e-mini gasoline contract. i wish the NYMEX minis were like the CBOT minis at 1/5th the size of a normal contract instead of 1/2 the size.

[BabyPeanut]

Oil up with 100% of daily Gulf output still offline (link)
By Myra P. Saefong
Last Updated: 9/26/2005 2:36:34 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures climbed over 2% Monday, rebounding from a seven-week low with 100% of daily oil output in the Gulf still offline and traders wary of incoming damage reports from Hurricane Rita.

More than 1.5 million barrels of daily oil production in the Gulf of Mexico is shut in as a result of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the U.S. Minerals Management Service reported Monday -- that's all of the region's daily output.

More than 78%, or 7.8 billion cubic feet, of daily natural-gas production remained offline as well, the MMS said.

"Nobody seems to have noticed that there has been virtually no recovery in Gulf of Mexico production in the area damaged by Katrina for either oil or natural gas," said James Williams, an economist at WTRG Economics.

more at web site

[OilsNotWell]

Watching today's 'action', I am beginning to wonder that if instead of manipulation we just may be seeing ignorance (not knowing)...

It was the MSM spin that seemed to move the market the way it did (but some knew the REAL story was different), and it was going to take some time for that information to feed through to those actually making decisions...

So I'm mulling over the idea that people on this site now seem to be more informed than those trading huge sums of money...

[Grimnir]

And it looks like we have yet another 3pm rally. This happens all the time--stocks shoot sharply up at opening, gradully fall back into the red, then shoot up again at about 3pm. Anyone have any idea why?

[neok]

.I wonder how long this transfer of foreign oil products to the US can continue before political pressure in those countries put a stop to it..

We even don't know of these transfers, it's not in the news, not in the papers. Nobody cares (at least in Belgium).

[khebab]

And it looks like we have yet another 3pm rally. This happens all the time--stocks shoot sharply up at opening, gradully fall back into the red, then shoot up again at about 3pm. Anyone have any idea why?

Stocks showed resilience Monday, managing a stealth advance near the close as relief that Hurricane Rita wasn't as bad as had been feared tempered worries about rising energy prices.

but oil is up $1.63 at the same time!

[TITAN]

The surface temperatures of the gulf of Mexico are likely to remain unchanged for several years to come (or at least until the ice age hits, which may be right around the corner...). This leads me to believe that severe weather will likely occur there on a more and more frequent basis. Will it even be profitable for the oil companies to be constantly rebuilding after every hurricane season? Considering that hurricane season lasts 5 months, this only gives them 7 months to fix everything before it gets wrecked again. I think after next summer this is going to come to realization and cause another $1 or $2 rise in prices at the pump, not to mention the rise in crude, which I expect to be at $80/bbl sustained by next summer. Of course we are so near the peak now none of this is really going to matter.

[rogerhb]

Gulf Conditions Will Remain

Wet.

[Geko45]

Gulf Conditions Will Remain...

Windy.

[EnemyCombatant]

How come we haven't experienced gas shortages/rationing -- outside of the Atlanta 2 day school reprieve.

I've heard the excuse of market manipulation, but you can't manipulate gas getting to the gas stations.

[skateari]

"BATON ROUGE, La. The Minerals Management Service reports that all oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has temporarily ceased.

M-M-S says its survey indicated that 100 percent of oil production in the Gulf is shut down as well as more than 80 percent of natural gas production.
The Gulf supplies 29 percent of the nation's oil and 21 percent of the gas.
Hurricane Rita, which came ashore Saturday morning, hit the western Gulf. Hurricane Katrina, which came ashore August 29th, struck the central Gulf.
Both areas are rich with offshore production platforms and drilling rigs."

http://www.klfy.com/Global/story.asp?S=3915246

The gulf accounts for 29% of the nations oil productiuon and over 20% of natural gas, according to the article.

[BabyPeanut]

How come we haven't experienced gas shortages/rationing -- outside of the Atlanta 2 day school reprieve.

Increases in the importing of refined products, esp. gasoline.

Europe lines up gasoline exports to US (link)
By Stefano Ambrogi and Khaled Yacoub Oweis | September 29, 2005

LONDON (Reuters) - European exporters are preparing another wave of gasoline and distillate arbitrage cargoes to the United States to fill up gaps in the U.S. supply chain caused by recent hurricanes.

[skateari]

Also, lots of oil has been let out of the SPR. Dont forget, imports will be hard to increase because there was also a loss of import processing durring the hurricane. Why no shortages, or even panic right now?? Nobody really knows the extent of the damage, but, nearly 30% of US Oil Production is gone, and over 15% of gas is gone, this is going to hit REALLY hard, and soon..

[MacG]

How come we haven't experienced gas shortages/rationing -- outside of the Atlanta 2 day school reprieve.

I've heard the excuse of market manipulation, but you can't manipulate gas getting to the gas stations.

Well, it's not really cold just yet, is it? And some fertilizer production might be shut down. Effects of such a move would not be fully noticed until harvest 2006...