[nth]

Powerdown and paying off credit cards may be good for individuals - but it's very bad for corporate profits. So I won't hold my breath to see the media advocate such things.

The news media has been telling people to pay off credit cards for years.
No one can blame the news media for this one.

[Lore]

Powerdown and paying off credit cards may be good for individuals - but it's very bad for corporate profits. So I won't hold my breath to see the media advocate such things.

The news media has been telling people to pay off credit cards for years.
No one can blame the news media for this one.

Actually FOX and CNBC have been big advocates of allowing illegal alians to obtain credit cards under a new plan by Bank of America.

They really do want to get everyone in debt.

Speaking of which there is a new documentary out called "Maxed Out", which is suppose to be pretty good in dealing with the subject. http://www.maxedoutmovie.com/

Supposedly it will make you go home from the show and cut up your cards.

[Fishman]

September should be interesting, reserves down, Saudis not increasing production, hurricane season. This will be the test, production will need to come up, will the Saudis provide, or not?

[americandream]

Financial advice is by defnition hooey. Has to be hooey. Why would those who know how to make money tell to you how to make money? That would mean less money for them to make.

Or, perhaps more pointedly - why would they not manipulate the masses so they could make more money, faster?

Powerdown and paying off credit cards may be good for individuals - but it's very bad for corporate profits. So I won't hold my breath to see the media advocate such things.

For once, I find myself in agreement with you Jack. Succint and clear...you could have taken the text out of my own quill!

[whereagles]

The logics of "you can't pull out 2 litres out of a 1 litre bottle" is inescapable, even for a 3-year old.

It is mind-boggling that some fully-fledged grown-ups do not understand this

[Newsseeker]

September should be interesting, reserves down, Saudis not increasing production, hurricane season. This will be the test, production will need to come up, will the Saudis provide, or not?

I agree the test will come when demand surges and it is put up or shut up time for good old Saudi Arabia but I think it will come in July or August. Just my two cents.....

[nth]

You guys are putting way too much emphasis on whether Saudi Aramco can increase production when summer rolls around or after hurricane destruction or any other destruction. I am afraid if Saudi do increase production that a bunch of non-PO believers will think we POers are full of shit.

Saudi Aramco claims they can increase production. Even if they are right, they cannot avert PO and they have publicly stated they will not be able to produce over 15mbpd by 2020 or beyond as CERA and IEA demanded.

[KevO]

September should be interesting, reserves down, Saudis not increasing production, hurricane season. This will be the test, production will need to come up, will the Saudis provide, or not?

I agree the test will come when demand surges and it is put up or shut up time for good old Saudi Arabia but I think it will come in July or August. Just my two cents.....

I think it'll come on or soon after April 7th

[nth]

So you would have us keep our mouths shut on the odd chance that SA may really make it to 2020?

Keep your mouth shut on SA, absolutely not!
You should be telling people that not only is SA producing less oil today than last year, but that even if SA double their current oil production, Peak Oil will be here in a few years.

If you show the math, people will see that it will take 30% more URR to make a big change in PO date. Anything less will just be a small difference.

The key about PO is the fact that a few big oil discoveries cannot alter the fact that we have hit a limit on oil production.

[nth]

Interesting article about GoM E&P.

BP quits exploration for a year to wait for better luck

[Twilight]

Interesting article about GoM E&P.

BP quits exploration for a year to wait for better luck

I'll see that and raise you a Shell exec complaining about capital cost estimates killing all of their projects. He blames shortages of everything, the price of everything, and new locations being hostile. If I didn't know any better, I would think their exploration options are now such that it is ceasing to be a financially rewarding activity.

No source to link to, but he said this at a CERA conference. The irony.

[nth]

Exxon has exited drilling Deep Gulf of Mexico in the Keathley Canyon block. They had blocks in Keathley Canyon. They had drilled a couple of dry holes. They no longer register any ships in the Deep Gulf of Mexico doing any drilling. With this info, I am guessing they are giving up.

Shell has register that they are planning to drill in Walker Ridge with T.O. DEEPWATER NAUTILUS drilling ship.
They are targeting WR 627.
This is close to St Malos.

St Malos is estimated to have 250mb recoverable from one analyst.

MMS still has not published if Chevron will drill a third well in the Jack Field. Chevron need to register ship and area to drill. That paperwork is either not submitted or MMS is slow in publishing.

[nth]

Answer to original question on this post:

This is hard to determine.
ASPO by Campbell tends to underestimate Deep Sea oil in both URR and production. His forecast has been wildly wrong. As far as PO is concern, it will take about a 30% URR error for World URR number to change the date to any significance. This means at best deep sea discoveries will push PO by a year or two. I am talking about global deep sea and not just US GoM. US GoM is too little to make any difference.

CERA is only forecasting 800kbpd by 2020 and we know they are the most optimistic.

The problem with US GoM is simply the fact that we have run out of real estate. We cannot drill south of Walker Ridge aka Jack Field. The Perdido field that Shell is leading on the Western GoM deep sea is right up against Mexico's boundary. One well was drilled just 9km from the boundary.

The only real estate is to move East where Florida's protected water is keeping explorers out. Once this is removed, that is it. Game over. Time to move to coastal areas along the Eastern seaboard or West in California, etc.... US GoM is done.

[Aaron]

A friend works on Thunder horse & tells me that they screwed the pooch on the water pressure requirements & the lower seals failed.

So now they are pulling the whole rig apart, & shipping it to the mainland to be retooled.

2007?

No Way.

Try 2009-2010

[AirlinePilot]

There defintely seems to be a pattern emerging concerning ANY new production. For me, and I am truly attempting to be objective, it is rapidly becoming evident that there is no "good" news. It seems the predictions and estimates of most new fields and projects are falling short more often than not. Is it just me or is this just indicative of the Peak?

[DantesPeak]

Yes, Chevron is still planning to revisit "Jack" in the deep depths of the Gulf of Mexico during the hurricane season this July:

Chevron's $3 billion Jack prospect, located in the deepwater Gulf, was the first well to tap into the Wilcox trend, a 200-mile long formation some geologists estimate could hold 3 billion to 15 billion barrels of oil. The company expects to resume drilling on the project in July, after a shortage of forced the company to halt work in September.

Mickey Driver, a spokesman for Chevron, said in an interview today that the Jack well tested only 40 percent of the pay zone. He said improvements in seismic mapping and drilling technology will make the prospect work.

``When T. Boone Pickens says it's not going to be commercially viable to do that, well that's what people said about other projects'' 10 to 15 years ago, Driver said. ``That's one view but we're plugging right ahead.''

Bloomberg

[joewp]

Yes, Chevron is still planning to revisit "Jack" in the deep depths of the Gulf of Mexico during the hurricane season this July:

In related news, a Taiwanese veterinarian will attempt to treat a crocodile at feeding time:


Also, aggressive plans are unveiled to expand the Nation's highway system as the President calls for turning food into fuel.

Stayed tuned for more "Bad Idea News" after these commercials for New Coke and the diet pill "Ayds".

[DantesPeak]

Yes, Chevron is still planning to revisit "Jack" in the deep depths of the Gulf of Mexico during the hurricane season this July:

In related news, a Taiwanese veterinarian will attempt to treat a crocodile at feeding time:

Also, aggressive plans are unveiled to expand the Nation's highway system as the President calls for turning food into fuel.

Stayed tuned for more "Bad Idea News" after these commercials for New Coke and the diet pill "Ayds".

Ouch! I detect some 'biting' sarcasm.