dorlomin wrote:On topic and I am in two minds. The melt has been slower than last year due to colder air and a dominance of low pressure systems. However, while that has been going on, over the past two weeks there has been a lot of lower concentration areas showing up in the central Arctic, towards the Eurasian side. This is mostly surface melt pools rather than open water. But it does point to much thinner ice now being there and as the edge of the ice moves closer in mid July it is likely to have little resistance from these regions. That and most models now pointing to some big high pressures over the central Arctic next week, just in time for solstice.
We could yet get enough melt to set (or near equal) a record.
dormolin, if you have not read the following white paper, may I suggest you do. It is the latest I could find.
A white paper submission to the 2013 Arctic Observing Summit in Vancouver, Canada, April 30-May 2
Understanding Coupled Climate and Weather Processes over the Arctic Ocean:
“Models are critical for understanding climate and climate change. However, current numerical weather and climate models have significant problems in reproducing the current state and are unable to describe observed system interactions”.
“Additionally, these models will likely also be unable to characterize significant shifts in processes or the appearance of new processes as the Arctic continues to change. There is therefore a need for observations to constrain new process-based model parameterizations for improving the basic tools for prediction of weather and sea-ice conditions, as well as for climate projections.”
"Topics [defined by MOSAiC’s] studies include the circulation pathways of the Atlantic and Pacific waters; impacts of wind and atmospheric thermal forcing; freshwater dynamics and life-cycle; Vertical Ocean mixing; and ecosystem primary productivity”.
“Ice growth and melt processes are directly related to energy fluxes, while sea-ice transport is related to momentum fluxes (wind forcing). Model improvements are needed to understand the effects of a changing Arctic on mid-latitude weather and climate. Additionally, better forecasting will be of high value for key economic areas, environmental planning, local populations, and governance in the Arctic.”1
1 A white paper submission to the 2013 Arctic Observing Summit in Vancouver, Canada, April 30-May 2
Understanding Coupled Climate and Weather Processes over the Arctic Ocean: Ola Persson1 , Matthew Shupe1 , Klaus Dethloff2 , and Michael Tjernström3 1 CIRES/NOAA/PSD, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO USA. 2 Alfred Wegener Institute, Potsdam, Germany. 3 Meteorology Dept., University of Stockholm, Stockholm, Sweden. Corresponding Author: Dr. Ola Persson; [email protected]
"The Arctic Ocean is a region whose changes impact not only the Arctic nations but the entire globe". (pp13) If one accepts that premise it stands to reason one must also ascribe to the hypothesis that Southern and Pacific Ocean transport systems also influence Arctic Ocean.
Which gets us back to my original post of;
Laromi » Mon Jun 10, 2013 5:13 pm It seems to me you have discounted the impact of runoff water. Runoff water, that is, water which drains directly into oceans, rivers and creeks etc. carrying warm ambient water into the ecological system at a much greater rate than say 100 years ago, due to coastal population and construction increases, in the main, and agricultural pursuits.
“In the extra-tropics, the interannual temperature variability is increased with the resolved eddies, and a (sic) notable increases in the amplitude of the El Nino and the Southern Oscillation is also detected. Changes in global temperature anomaly teleconnections and local air-sea feedbacks are also documented and show large changes in ocean-atmosphere coupling. In particular, local air-sea feedbacks are significantly modified by the increased ocean resolution. In the high-resolution simulation in the extra-tropics there is compelling evidence of stronger forcing of the atmosphere by SST variability arising from ocean dynamics”.
Impact of ocean model resolution on CCSM climate simulations http://worldwidescience.org/
You don’t know, I don’t know, nor does science know where GW albeit AGW, is going, or in fact arising from, or do you believe yelling will make everyone believe you are right? Dorlomin, Take time to sniff the flowers, not just look at them.