[MonteQuest]

Wind and solar are also lagging players. In its latest market forecast, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts modern bioenergy will represent the biggest growth in renewable energy sources between now and 2023. According to the IEA, bioenergy will remain the largest source of renewable energy over the next five years due to its widespread use in heat and transportation, sectors in which wind and solar currently play a much smaller role. The IEA shows that modern bioenergy, excluding the traditional use of wood, dung, etc, was responsible for half of all renewable energy consumed last year, providing four times the contribution of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind combined. Bioenergy in the form of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels will account for 30 percent of the growth in renewable consumption through 2023. “We expect modern bioenergy will continue to lead the field, and has huge prospects for further growth’—IEA

Feeding our food and other animals' food to our machines is not the right path, either. We already appropriate 40% of NPP to human use.

[MonteQuest]

As to renewables displacing coal, that’s going to be a heavy lift going forward. While hundreds of coal-fired power plants are being canceled, there are still many being built or planned. With renewables only meeting 25% of new energy demand, something has to fill the gap. Coal is one, along with NG, and biofuels.

According to Global Coal Plant Tracker there are currently 1,035 coal-fired power plants under construction, permitted, in pre-permit, or announced. Most will be built in countries like China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam.

385 under construction
190 permitted
248 in pre-permit
212 announced.

Global Coal Plant Tracker

With the Covid-19 demand destruction, no one knows where this goes. But with modern renewables growing their share of the overall energy pie just .3%/yr, and the demand for energy projected to double by 2050, it begs the question—just where will this new energy supply will come from?

[kublikhan]

IRENA and REN21 both claim that Hydro is around 47% of all renewable capacity.

No, they do not. 15.8% is 60% of 26.2%

You are still confused by all these figures so let me break it down for you again.
47% is the amount of renewable installed capacity that is hydro. Both REN21 and IRENA agree this figure is 47%. This figure does not measure actual electricity generated. It measures the size of the power plant, wind turbine, hydro dam, etc. This is a very different figure than actual generation. Solar generation varies by time of day. Hydro generation can vary with the weather, etc. This 47% figure means that out of all renewable capacity installed, roughly half of it is hydro. Again, that is in terms of capacity. However because hydro can run all day and solar and wind run for a shorter fraction of the day, hydro's share of generation is actually higher than that.
26.2% is the measure of actual generation renewables produce, relative to the entire amount of electricity generated on the planet. This means that roughly 1/4th of all electricity generated in the world comes from renewables.
15.8% is the measure of actual generation hydro produces, relative to the entire amount of electricity generated on the planet. This means roughly 1/6 of all of the electricity produced in the world is from hydro.
60% is the fraction of electricity that comes from hydro, relative to the amount of renewable electricity generated on the planet. So even though hydro is only 47% of renewable installed capacity, it is 60% of generation because hydro produces energy for a larger portion of the day compared to wind and solar.

According to REN21, ALL renewables decreased their share of the electrical power generation pie from 26.5% in 2017 to 26.2% in 2018. Fossil fuels increased their share of the power generation pie from 73.5% in 2017 to 73.8% in 2018. As to modern renewables of wind, solar and geothermal. They grew their share of the pie just .4%. In June, we will see the REN21 2020 report for 2018 to 2019.

Yes. This was because hydro generation didn't grow that much in 2018 because of weather patterns. We actually installed more hydro in 2018 than in 2017. However because of changes in weather patterns actual generation can vary. This is not new. Weather can also affect fossil fuels as well. 2018 saw soaring natural gas use because of extreme weather conditions. However natural gas growth rates for the rest of the decade were far lower.

You can cite all manner of stats collected from various sources on growth rates, installed capacity, etc. But the final market share stats are all that matter. The goal is to replace FF's is it not? How are we doing on that front? These stats show us that they are not growing fast enough to displace fossil fuel use.

Did you not read my previous post? It had nothing to do with growth rates, installed capacity, etc. It had everything to do with the final share of the energy pie for every fuel type. How did we do on that front? Fossil fuels lost ground. Gains in natural gas were not enough to offset losses in coal and oil. Fossil fuels provided 82% of our total energy in 2018 and 80% in 2019. Renewables increased their share of the pie.

As to renewables displacing coal, that’s going to be a heavy lift going forward. While hundreds of coal-fired power plants are being canceled, there are still many being built or planned.

Again, check my previous post. Renewables did quite a bit a heavy lifting as they displaced coal use. Also read what the IEA said about coal's 'growth':

Coal demand declined by 1.7%, as electricity generation from coal-fired power plants fell by the largest amount ever, with coal challenged by cheap gas prices and expanding renewables and nuclear power.

IEA: Global Energy Review 2019

With renewables only meeting 25% of new energy demand, something has to fill the gap. Coal is one, along with NG, and biofuels.

Coal use is shrinking in both absolute and market share terms. Natural gas grew in absolute terms but but it was not enough to cover losses in coal and oil on the market share front, so fossil fuels still fell. In 2019, Renewables met 60% of new energy demand. That 25% figure you are quoting was for 2018, which was an unusual year because of extreme weather. 2019 and the rest of the past decade had much lower rates of natural gas growth:

Natural gas demand increased by 60 Mtoe, or 70 billion cubic metres (bcm), a 1.8% increase from 2018 levels. The rate of demand growth was well below the 5% increase observed in 2018 but marked a return to the average growth rate between 2010 and 2017. In contrast to 2018, when exceptional weather led to a jump in gas demand.

IEA: Global Energy Review 2019

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annual increase in energy demand by fuel in Mtoe, 2018 compared to 2019
source     2018 2019 2018 %  2019 %
total       312  124   100%    100%
Renewables   73   74  23.7%   59.7%
ffs         218   27  69.9%   21.8%
n gas       156   58  50.0%   46.8%
oil          27   33   8.7%   26.6%
nuclear      21   23   6.7%   18.5%
coal         35  -64  11.2%  -51.6%

IEA: Global Energy Review 2019

[REAL Green]

I really don't think hydro should be considered renewable except in rare cases. Much of the time beautiful water sources are destroyed to supply man with power to waste on his petty mind games. Not to mention how drenched these huge projects are in their buildout phase.

[MonteQuest]

26.2% is the measure of actual generation renewables produce, relative to the entire amount of electricity generated on the planet. This means that roughly 1/4th of all electricity generated in the world comes from renewables.

Yes, and 60% of that comes from hydro. But from modern renewables we get just 8.3%, growing only .4%/yr. The transition away from FF's is going to have to be borne by modern renewables, not from biomass or hydro.

Fossil fuels provided 82% of our total energy in 2018 and 80% in 2019. Renewables increased their share of the pie.

REN21 says fossil fuels provided 79.5% in 2017 and 79.7% in 2018. Fossil fuels increased their share of the pie .2%. 2019's numbers will be out in June's 2020 report. They do note not to make comparisons from one year to the next due to revisions in data and methodology.

Renewables met 60% of new energy demand. That 25% figure you are quoting was for 2018, which was an unusual year because of extreme weather.

Then they didn't displace any FF's. To do so, they would have to have met over 100% of new demand.

No matter how it is spun, wind and solar provide just 1% to 2% of the world's primary energy. That's a world-wide consensus.

They are also growing too slowly to have any impact on climate change or meeting the demand for new energy, much less doubling it by 2050. Energy demand is growing at 1.5%/yr. Modern renewables are growing at .3%.

[MonteQuest]

I really don't think hydro should be considered renewable except in rare cases. Much of the time beautiful water sources are destroyed to supply man with power to waste on his petty mind games. Not to mention how drenched these huge projects are in their buildout phase.

Yes, and the ecological damage is huge. I was a National Park Ranger at both Glen Canyon and Lake Mead NRA's. The energy we robbed from the water was already being used by other downstream consumers--and I don't mean humans. There are no free lunches.

[kublikhan]

REN21 says fossil fuels provided 79.5% in 2017 and 79.7% in 2018. Renewables decreased their share of the pie .2%.

As I said, 2018 was a year of extreme weather and did not match the pattern for the rest of the decade. Repeatedly citing this single year over and over is nothing but cherry picking.

Then they didn't displace any FF's. To do so, they would have to have met over 100% of new demand.

Agreed. I never claimed gross fossil fuel consumption was shrinking globally in total energy. But I think it is interesting that globally, fossil fuels shrunk in at least electricity yoy. Has this ever happened before in the last 16 years you followed this issue?

[kublikhan]

Yes, and the ecological damage is huge. I was a National Park Ranger at both Glen Canyon and Lake Mead NRA's. The energy we robbed from the water was already being used by other downstream consumers--and I don't mean humans. There are no free lunches.

What happened?

[MonteQuest]

REN21 says fossil fuels provided 79.5% in 2017 and 79.7% in 2018. Renewables decreased their share of the pie .2%.

As I said, 2018 was a year of extreme weather and did not match the pattern for the rest of the decade. Repeatedly citing this single year over and over is nothing but cherry picking.

Cherry-picking? If I was cherry-picking my data to support my case, I would have cited 2016 to 2017 which was only .1% growth of modern renewables pie share. Or the .1%/yr growth 2015 to 2016 instead of .3% in 2018. If it took 16 years to go from .5% to 2%, the growth rate is abysmal.

Then they didn't displace any FF's. To do so, they would have to have met over 100% of new demand.

Agreed. I never claimed gross fossil fuel consumption was shrinking globally in total energy. But I think it is interesting that globally, fossil fuels shrunk in at least electricity yoy. Has this ever happened before in the last 16 years you followed this issue?

Of course, it happens almost every year as renewables have gained more market share. In 2018, it was 73.8% and in 2015 76.3%, 78.4% in 2012. Most of the gains were the result of hydro projects, wind and biomass.

[MonteQuest]

Yes, and the ecological damage is huge. I was a National Park Ranger at both Glen Canyon and Lake Mead NRA's. The energy we robbed from the water was already being used by other downstream consumers--and I don't mean humans. There are no free lunches.

What happened?

Dams are ecological disasters, both in the damage in the impoundments and the downstream riparian areas.

[kublikhan]

Of course, it happens almost every year as renewables have gained more market share. In 2018, it was 73.8% and in 2015 76.3%, 78.4% in 2012.

You are talking about fossil fuels' share of the electricity pie shirking. I was asking about fossil fuels' actually getting displaced in electricity. Year after year we continued to burn more fossil fuels for our electricity despite growing renewables. But in 2019 renewables met greater than 100% of new demand in electricity and the absolute amount of fossil fuels burned for electricity shrank last year. I don't recall this happening previously.

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World Electricity generation in TWh
source  2005   2010   2015   2016   2017   2018   2019
total 17,514 20,737 23,342 23,935 24,534 25,457 25,814
ff    11,533 13,859 15,280 15,458 15,690 16,129 16,052

Global Electricity Dashboard

Most of the gains were the result of hydro projects, wind and biomass.

Not in electricity. The order of renewable gains were wind, solar, hydro, then biomass in a distant last place. Here were the gains in electricity in TWh:

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increase in global renewable electricity generation from 2018 to 2019 in TWh
source increase
wind   144
solar  126
hydro   63
biomass 18

Global Electricity Dashboard

[MonteQuest]

Of course, it happens almost every year as renewables have gained more market share. In 2018, it was 73.8% and in 2015 76.3%, 78.4% in 2012.

You are talking about fossil fuels' share of the electricity pie shirking. I was asking about fossil fuels' actually getting displaced in electricity. Year after year we continued to burn more fossil fuels for our electricity despite growing renewables. But in 2019 renewables met greater than 100% of new demand in electricity and the absolute amount of fossil fuels burned for electricity shrank last year. I don't recall this happening previously.

On that point, I don't recall it ever happening. If FF's share of the generation pie shrank in 2019, was it entirely from a growth in renewable capacity? Or were there other factors at play that declined FF use and allowed renewables a leg up? Something to look at.

We are drawing data from various sources, so numbers won't always be in alignment. I'll be curious to see what REN21 says in June. In 2018, that growth in modern renewables was just .4%.

[MonteQuest]

Most of the gains were the result of hydro projects, wind and biomass.

Not in electricity. The order of renewable gains were wind, solar, hydro, then biomass in a distant last place.

I was referring to over the last few years, not just 2019. I agree with regard to 2019.

And again, wind and solar are really only addressing about 25% of energy demand via electricity. REN21 says it's just 17%. 83% of demand is for transportation, heating and cooling, which renewable electricity has barely penetrated. This is why the IEA sees biomass, rather than wind/solar being 30% of new renewable energy's growth. That will be an ecological disaster.

[REAL Green]

Most of the gains were the result of hydro projects, wind and biomass.

Not in electricity. The order of renewable gains were wind, solar, hydro, then biomass in a distant last place.

This is why the IEA sees biomass, rather than wind/solar being 30% of new renewable energy's growth. That will be an ecological disaster.

Or not much change becuase it does not have air under it meaning those kind of growth numbers are irrelevant to begin with.

[MonteQuest]

Most of the gains were the result of hydro projects, wind and biomass.

Not in electricity. The order of renewable gains were wind, solar, hydro, then biomass in a distant last place.

This is why the IEA sees biomass, rather than wind/solar being 30% of new renewable energy's growth. That will be an ecological disaster.

Or not much change becuase it does not have air under it meaning those kind of growth numbers are irrelevant to begin with.

Care to elaborate? Not sure I am following you.

[kublikhan]

On that point, I don't recall it ever happening. If FF's share of the generation pie shrank in 2019, was it entirely from a growth in renewable capacity? Or were there other factors at play that declined FF use and allowed renewables a leg up? Something to look at.

There were a couple other factors at play: Coal & oil's global decline in 2019(in electricity), nuclear growth, mild weather limiting ff needs, etc.

[REAL Green]

"Care to elaborate? Not sure I am following you." this would not take on the thread for some reason:

My point is a speculation that growth will not return to pre-pandemic levels. This means excess capacity but also lack of capacity depending on the economic sector. Demand shocks affecting manufactures and gluts affecting commodities. Energy will likely initially suffer a glut that will damage future supply but a glut nonetheless. This is not supportive of renewable growth. If this is the case, nobody really knows at this point, then a growth of 30% of renewables that are growing is different than 30% of negative renewable growth. It is just an observation of what is possible. There is a lag effect people are trying to ignore that is surely coming kind of like the side effects people have after recovery from a grave illness. Growth may not materialize as many feel. We are habituated to growth and this is natural to feel there is a recovery over the horizon. If growth is over then renewable growth is likely over too. In this case biomass may dominate the renewable mix with solar and wind value chains diminished.

[kublikhan]

And again, wind and solar are really only addressing about 25% of energy demand via electricity. REN21 says it's just 17%. 83% of demand is for transportation, heating and cooling, which renewable electricity has barely penetrated. This is why the IEA sees biomass, rather than wind/solar being 30% of new renewable energy's growth. That will be an ecological disaster.

I think it makes sense to clean up the power sector before trying to tackle transportation. You don't want a bunch of EVs hitting the roads if our grid is still predominantly coal.

As for heating and cooling, I think the best bet is to go with CHP plants. Unfortunately these are mostly fossil fuel driven so most of it is not captured in REN21 data. It is quite a large amount however.

Global Combined Heat and Power capacity increased from 456.4 gigawatts (GW) in 2006 to 864.2 GW in 2018 at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.5%

Combined Heat and Power Market, Update 2019

Technavio has been monitoring the global combined heat and power (CHP) market and the market is poised to grow by 124.76 GW during 2019-2023.

Global Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Market 2019-2023

If growth is over then renewable growth is likely over too. In this case biomass may dominate the renewable mix with solar and wind value chains diminished.

Actually renewables have turned out to be remarkably resilient in the face of the Covid-19 crisis. Fossil fuels on the other hand have plunged. I predict 2020 will have more renewables in the mix than 2019.

Renewable electricity will be the only source resilient to the biggest global energy shock in 70 years triggered by the coronavirus pandemic. The International Energy Agency said the outbreak of Covid-19 would wipe out demand for fossil fuels by prompting a collapse in energy demand seven times greater than the slump caused by the global financial crisis.

In a report, the IEA said the most severe plunge in energy demand since the second world war would trigger multi-decade lows for the world’s consumption of oil, gas and coal while renewable energy continued to grow. The steady rise of renewable energy combined with the collapse in demand for fossil fuels means clean electricity will play its largest ever role in the global energy system this year, and help erase a decade’s growth of global carbon emissions.

Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, said: “The plunge in demand for nearly all major fuels is staggering, especially for coal, oil and gas. Only renewables are holding up during the previously unheard of slump in electricity use.” Renewable energy is expected to grow by 5% this year, to make up almost 30% of the world’s shrinking demand for electricity. The growth of renewables despite a global crisis could spur fossil fuel companies towards their goals to generate more clean energy, according to Biro.

The impact of the coronavirus has triggered a crisis for fossil fuel commodities, including the collapse of oil market prices, which turned negative for the first time in the US earlier this month. Global efforts to curb the spread of Covid-19 have led to severe restrictions on travel and the global economy that will cause the biggest drop in global oil demand in 25 years. Demand for gas is expected to fall by 5%, after a decade of uninterrupted growth. It is the steepest drop since gas became widely used as an energy source in the second half of the previous century. Coal demand is forecast to fall by 8% compared with 2019, its largest decline since the end of the second world war.

Covid-19 crisis will wipe out demand for fossil fuels, says IEA

[REAL Green]

If growth is over then renewable growth is likely over too. In this case biomass may dominate the renewable mix with solar and wind value chains diminished.

Actually renewables have turned out to be remarkably resilient in the face of the Covid-19 crisis. Fossil fuels on the other hand have plunged. I predict 2020 will have more renewables in the mix than 2019.

There is no way to tell accurately on either right now with the data set being so small and considering there were many projects in the works. It may turn out that renewables weather this storm better. I hope so. I have lots of my own money invested in them. I would like to buy a small low cost and efficient EV and 30hp farm tractor. I would like to charge them with pannels and probably have a grid tie to dump power on the grid when I am not charging. This is my next renewable investment. I do not consider EVs very renewable but I am sold on electric for my dedicated trip to town by car to get basic supplies. I would also like to cut my hay and do my mowing maintenance with an electric tractor that I charge with pannels. So, I am firmly hoping renewables swim and fossil fuels sink. I am still going to remain a skeptic becuase I have not been impressed so far with renewables in relation to the hype.

[MonteQuest]

"Care to elaborate? Not sure I am following you." this would not take on the thread for some reason:

My point is a speculation that growth will not return to pre-pandemic levels. This means excess capacity but also lack of capacity depending on the economic sector. Demand shocks affecting manufactures and gluts affecting commodities. Energy will likely initially suffer a glut that will damage future supply but a glut nonetheless. This is not supportive of renewable growth. If this is the case, nobody really knows at this point, then a growth of 30% of renewables that are growing is different than 30% of negative renewable growth. It is just an observation of what is possible. There is a lag effect people are trying to ignore that is surely coming kind of like the side effects people have after recovery from a grave illness. Growth may not materialize as many feel. We are habituated to growth and this is natural to feel there is a recovery over the horizon. If growth is over then renewable growth is likely over too. In this case biomass may dominate the renewable mix with solar and wind value chains diminished.

I see. Yes, demand destruction, coupled with massive new debt and cheap oil, is going to blur any predictions or projections to utter nonsense. I thought we were at the End of Growth before the pandemic arrived. Increasing debt after factoring in inflation was producing no net GDP growth.