[smiley]

You should also not make the mistake to overstate the importance of Ghawar. It is a big field, but it does not define the world production.

Ghawar produces about 5 million barrels a day, right? So even if it declines at 10% annually that only is a loss of 500.000 barrels a day. Considering that the world growth is somewhere in the order of 1-2 mbd a year that wouldn't make it the peak.

[mgibbons19]

he key is permeability anisotropy in the reservoir, presence of fracturing and apparent mobility ratio mainly.

See. Crystal clear. Couldn't be easier.



BTW it was a good post.

[Ming]

In my opinion (but I’m not an expert) Ghawar, being the biggest field and being in dry land, has indeed the possibility of allowing a better final recovery percentage than any other oil field in the world.
And with PO and ever rising prices, I have no great doubts that 75% (or even better) will be achieved before the field is truly abandoned…

The big question is if the present producing rates can be maintained for long…

[EnviroEngr]

I tried to do this the other day, and EnviroEngineer is looking for some more data from ASPO for us.
<snip> Also, ASPO's estimates are not necessarily infallible either. Maybe the field is bigger and better than they thought in 1975. A little error on the fill factor or n/g ratio, as we have seen, makes a big difference to the reserves calculation. But, now that we have a tool, if anybody can find a better source of data it would be wonderful to get it, so we can estimate the life of this old geezer.

I've been wondering of late if mayhaps rockdoc123 or spartacus have credible data for us??

[rockdoc123]

I've been wondering of late if mayhaps rockdoc123 or spartacus have credible data for us??

unfortunately I have no more info that can be shared. I have a bit of information that is not available from traditional sources but can't talk about it due to confidentiality agreements. Still not enough information to sort this one out. I suspect Spartacus is in a similar situation although he probably has a lot more info.
reading between the lines on the Aramco presentation on the next 40 years or so I am suspicious that the high recovery at A'in Dur and Shedgun are at the expense of lower recoveries elsewhere....it might be there is going to be high recoveries in places and lower elsewhere. Trying to come up with a real good picture of ultimate recovery is going to be a tough one without a lot of production information.

[Shadizar]

This is a quote from an article on CNBC tonight!

The Saudis and the rest of OPEC aren't exempt from this process. About 50% of Saudi Arabia's current reserves are locked up in just eight fields, including the giant Ghawar field -- the world's largest with remaining reserves, by official Saudi oil industry count, of 70 billion barrels. Ghawar, however, is quite old and while reserves remain huge, production rates are declining as it gets harder and harder to extract the oil. The Saudi state oil company Aramco says that production from Ghawar and other old fields is falling by 800,000 barrels a day. (Outside critics say the depletion rate is much higher.)

That has a different ring to it than anything I've heard or read about Ghawar so far. The author also gives a decent intro into peak oil.
Why OPEC won't turn off the oil

[UIUCstudent01]

He's a peaker. Maybe he has just caught onto the idea without having a source? (Hopefully?)

[Dreamtwister]

The Saudi state oil company Aramco says that production from Ghawar and other old fields is falling by 800,000 barrels a day.

I'm going to assume means 800kbpd/year. Even if it is though, that's a 17.78% decline! That would put Ghawar at ~238kbpd by 2020! Now I'm worried.

[Armageddon]

In two years from now, we have a much better picture of things. Im very sure we are at peak right now. We may actually be a little bit past peak.

[mekrob]

Dreamtwister, please read the entire sentence. It said Ghawar and other OLD fields, in other words, most of their production. Still, 10% decline in a year is pretty significant if true, though I doubt it.

[thor]

[quote="armegeddon"]In two years from now, we have a much better picture of things. Im very sure we are at peak right now. We may actually be a little bit past peak.[/quote]


Agreed. By 2010 I'll expect to see a clear manifestation of a production plateau or a peak.

[Specop_007]

Well you guys are a cheery bunch arent ya........

[PWALPOCO]

Well here we are its 2006 , near the front end of the time span that the various experts , organisations , government bodies and so on were stating the "peak" would happen , and there seems to be a general acceptance beginning to show up in places that the peak is at hand.

Certainly some of the recent graphs over at TOD seemed to indicate that the oil output levelled out several months back and weve been on the plateau since , but couple that with graphs showing the total output history theres not enough current information to make it clear we peaked. There are other periods in time there where you would have thought the peak had been reached only for the output to start its climb again.

The Ghawar area definitely is the key, and with the Kuwaiti reserve revelation the other week , it would seem likely Ghawar is going to take a tumble sooner rather than later.

Paul

[Starvid]

We have no way of knowing if Ghawar is near peak or very far from peak. Everything is just speculation.

I would be very carefull saying anything sure about Ghawar except if I were a close friend al-Naimi or some such guy.

And I guess you people aren't.

[Novus]

Ghawar had its natural Peak in 1981 when it produced 5.4 MBPD. Production was scaled back to only 1 MBPD in 1986. Similar declines could happen again.

[Shadizar]

I think we'll have a much clearer picture in a few years too. I'm certainly not a Saudi Aramco official, thats why I rely on various media to pass on whatever they say.
CNBC is about as mainstream a business news outlet as it gets in the U.S..
If this author did his research correctly, and I can't say if he did, then the following quote is what worries me.

The Saudi state oil company Aramco says that production from Ghawar and other old fields is falling by 800,000 barrels a day. (Outside critics say the depletion rate is much higher

.
The author notes it is a depletion rate, not a voluntary cutback in production like the post 1981 drop. Of course, further information is necessary to confirm if Ghawar is indeed in decline.
I hope the author made some kind of error in his reporting. I would be happy to see Saudi Arabia continue to grow oil production for years to come (more time to prepare).

[Eli]

Well not knowing what exactly is going on at Ghawar is something the world can afford.

The largest oil field in the world operated by the country that produces the most oil in the world and is absolutely critical to maintaining the world oil market and, know one knows for sure what is going on with production their?

We all know if this thing is decline it is all over and we are way past peak.

Considering its age, I think lots of speculation about its continued production capabilities is exactly what we should be doing. And after reading what Matt Simmons has to say I think they are most likely in decline not to mention the fact that all the oil the spare capacity they brought on during the oil crisis was sour crude, shows they do not have the spare light sweet the world needs right now.

One of the best points made in the article was about why the Saudis would want to keep control of the oil market as the sole swing producer. So it is in the Saudi's and the world oil market interest for the Saudis to appear in control for as long as possible. The US government would also not want that info to become common knowledge. If it became widely known the Saudi’s were in decline at Ghawar it would give countries opposed to the US, like Iran and Venezuela huge control over oil and the markets.

Subtle changes in their oil policy would have massive effects on the market. Right now they could destabilize the market but not with out damaging themselves, if Ghawar is in decline they could topple the market just by lifting their little finger.

[Novus]

I think we'll have a much clearer picture in a few years too.

I am tired of hearing this oh we know in a couple of years. I think we know in a couple of weeks. OPEC contemplating a production cut at their next meeting. Peak oil can't be hidden any longer. It is likened to a man having a heart attack he will know when it hits him.

[MacG]

I think we'll have a much clearer picture in a few years too.

I am tired of hearing this oh we know in a couple of years. I think we know in a couple of weeks. OPEC contemplating a production cut at their next meeting. Peak oil can't be hidden any longer. It is likened to a man having a heart attack he will know when it hits him.

Nahh... IEA stockpiles and US SPR have to be quietly depleted first. Might take a year or two. And after that you will se the US and EU versions of "Comical Ali" on TV for a couple of months, explaining that "it's just a temporary disruption, soon, very soon, everything will be much better..."

[mekrob]

Don't you mean 'Baghdad Bob'? The guy that kept lying about the positions of US forces? Chemical Ali was a different guy.

What would this guy's name be? Washington Wanker?