[sparky]

.
I assume you are referring to the FAO site ,
that's their statistics , a bit of digging would have enlightened you

http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/F ... sIndex/en/
check out the third graph time baseline

[dohboi]

OMG, so that's yet another graph that you have no ability to interpret??

It's not my job to educate you on how to read a freakin' graph.

It might help for you to at least understand that you are totally clueless. But then being clueless means that you are also clueless about being clueless. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E ... ger_effect

So, basically, I'm talking to a box of rocks here.

Done with that.

[sparky]

.
Ah , dohboi , dohboi , you expressive language is a reflexion on your family history

....... I forgive you

[dohboi]

I forgive you, too, sweetie pie.

No go off and learn how to read a frigin' graph.

[sparky]

.
Back to topic , away from childish pouting !
the united nation Food and Agriculture Organisation , collect statistics since its creation
the third graph called "FAO food price index in nominal and real term " capture the evolution of food price since 1961
maybe not "forever" but certainly a good batting average ,
a cursory look at the numbers would indicate some validity to my assertion
I'm not quite familiar with your background but I've been poring at graphs for a few decades now ,
in fact I'm very well paid for it ,
rather than the abuse I would rather have some constructive retort


By the way thanks for the link on cognitive bias , It took me a while to decide if you were being modest about yourself,
..the old adage about throwing stone while living in glass houses
It created a pretty lively discussion at work on McArthur Wheeler and why he didn't see his face on a polaroid
the consensus is that the juice was still wet and the flash of the Polaroid blurred the picture.

http://awesci.com/the-astonishingly-fun ... r-wheeler/

[dohboi]

OK, for clarification, is the the graph you meant by 'third graph' at this link http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/F ... sIndex/en/ ?

Yes, it goes back to 1961, but the price was lower than the current price in 2009, and much lower than today's price for most of the period before about 2007.

Are you getting some other interpretation from this pretty clear graph somehow?

"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve, on les dit, et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos

[sparky]

.
Yes that the one ,It warm my heart to see you debating and using data ,
and yes my affirmation of the cheapest ever is wrong , as you point out.
that's world wide , I'm not too sure about developed countries ,
I'll try some digging

now if you consider the real price of oil , or real estate , it might give you some food for though

P.S.as for the quote is it from "dangerous liaisons "?

[onlooker]

It really does not take rocket science to understand we are in overshoot and just have not faced the full consequences yet. We have through some ingenuity just delayed the more pronounced consequences. All the trend lines clearly point to lack of vital resources to maintain food production much less increase it and this in the context of a less hospitable planet for agriculture due to GW. All the while population trends will continue upwards in light of the population momentum of having 7 + billion people on the planet. If we were God and could produce out of thin air the resources we need then maybe I would say things are okay. Since we are not God, well we are heading into die-off territory.

[dohboi]

"is it from "dangerous liaisons "

Full marks!

[ralfy]

Also, food per capita is mentioned here:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... g-collapse

[sparky]

.
while the agro industrial complex has been successful so far in feeding an increasing amount of a rising urban world population,
dark clouds are gathering !
low prices might seem like a GOOD thing ,
it nevertheless undermine an industry where less than 5% of the population feed the rest .
farmers are not prospering and relies on cheap energy for fuel and fertilizer to keep going
no cheap crude , no cheap food
I've mentioned before the 2011 crisis when the world came within three weeks of global starvation
every year , this tightrope act is re-enacted
glory to the farmers who have always managed to keep the black horse of the apocalypse in the barn
until they won't , and food , again, will be scarce
the rich will do without a petty luxury , the poor will die , the lower middle class will revolt .
that was the case during Arab spring when destitute government cut on food subsidies .
Just imagine if the cost of food stamps were to double , during an economic recession !

[SeaGypsy]

.
while the agro industrial complex has been successful so far in feeding an increasing amount of a rising urban world population,
dark clouds are gathering !
low prices might seem like a GOOD thing ,
it nevertheless undermine an industry where less than 5% of the population feed the rest .
farmers are not prospering and relies on cheap energy for fuel and fertilizer to keep going
no cheap crude , no cheap food
I've mentioned before the 2011 crisis when the world came within three weeks of global starvation
every year , this tightrope act is re-enacted
glory to the farmers who have always managed to keep the black horse of the apocalypse in the barn
until they won't , and food , again, will be scarce
the rich will do without a petty luxury , the poor will die , the lower middle class will revolt .
that was the case during Arab spring when destitute government cut on food subsidies .
Just imagine if the cost of food stamps were to double , during an economic recession !

Absolutely correct. Even at ludicrously cheap prices for retail food, farmers are getting often a small fraction of what we pay, the big retailers able to screw them to the wall by being the only long term customer with capital. Even if you are a farmer with a great bank, you still have to have big ongoing sales contracts to borrow against & nobody else is offering.

Seeing the big retailers advertising using their 'support' for farmers as propaganda is stomach churning.

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[onlooker]

And then look at what Big Ag has done and is doing to third world countries. How cheap corn flooded the Mexican market and has created exacerbated social problems like crime, drugs and poverty. In fact terms of loans by IMF and World Bank stipulated under Structural Adjustment Programs SAP, require farmer in countries to produce export crops like coffee, sugar etc rather then the staples the people rely on to nourish themselves. Finally, the biggest crime is with Monsanto and their hostile takeover of the genetic seeds via patenting in which they seem to be trying to take over food production from inception to sale. They are producing seeds that do not reproduce and thus farmers need every year to buy from them for the new harvest. Just another symptom of this dominant rapacious system which seeks domination over everything and everyone it seems.

[SeaGypsy]

My defense above is of the actual farmers, not big ag. We still have a majority of owner operators here in Oz, a situation gradually eroding now for decades.

I work for one of over 3000 farm based businesses at the biggest fruit & veg & flower market in the country. Each on average has around 5-10 individual farm owners contributing. Of over 4,500 daily workers at the market NONE are employed directly or indirectly by the biggest 3 supermarkets, who each run their own show from farm gate to shelf. One of the biggest two is owned by Westfarmers, which began as a farm collective, now in the business of screwing farmers to the wall.

It has gotten so crazy that a dairy farmer here can expect to net average less than an 18 year old checkout chick in the supermarket selling their milk. Only one of these starts work 7 days a week 2 hours before dawn & finishes 2 hours after sunset.

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[kiwichick]

@ sg

while my partner often starts work before dawn during the season , he is on 8.00 am starts while the cows are dry, and he seldom finishes after dark.

he is currently on a 5 on / 2 off roster although this will probably change to 6 on/ 2 off over calving ( August - October )

however I take the points raised , farmers are absolutely dependent on oil/diesel to run the machinery needed to keep running a profitable operation

and without profits there is no business

[SeaGypsy]

Our cows are never dry, or its off to the knackers. (All our dairy areas are below the snow lines & about 2/3rds is irrigation dependent.

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[SeaGypsy]

Our cows are never dry, or its off to the knackers. (All our dairy areas are below the snow lines & about 2/3rds is irrigation dependent.

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Oops to clarify, I'm generalizing. There are still cyclical dairys in Oz, but the vast majority of farms are productive year round, with the majority of that being production in irrigation areas, most of these along the Murray.



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[kiwichick]

@ sg

that's not correct sg

all cows are ( or at least they should be ) dryed off for a period of time (usually 4- 8 weeks ) prior to them calving again

you may be thinking of cows not being in calve (pregnant ) and the farmer having to decide whether to keep her (to " carry her over " ) or to cull her

[SeaGypsy]

@ sg

that's not correct sg

all cows are ( or at least they should be ) dryed off for a period of time (usually 4- 8 weeks ) prior to them calving again

you may be thinking of cows not being in calve (pregnant ) and the farmer having to decide whether to keep her (to " carry her over " ) or to cull her

The areas I have worked in Atherton & northern Victoria it was paced across the herd so there was rarely no milk. You probably have much more knowledge than I do on the topic as it has only been around me not a job I have done specifically. I brought dairy farmers in because I am aware that they are among the most ripped off in the sector, with very little chance of a windfall, stuck in the most regulated dairy market in the world, totally controlled by 2 or 3 retailers.

The Chinese opportunity could rock this space soon. $7 liter in Shanghai, $1 in Oz.

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[sparky]

.
Get the picture , big Ag is as much screwed as the farmers ,
they have to supply even more even cheaper
true in Mexico and many other places they supply more for less to URBAN populations ,
who want ever more , cheaper because THEIR NUMBER increase and their standard of living rely on cheap food
it's a vicious circle of planetary proportion , less people working harder ,
growing more food for more people for less money

...you solve this one and I'll nominate you for the Nobel prize