[vtsnowedin]

Socialism cannot deal with it either.

Capitalism is not the problem any more than socialism is the solution.

No "ism" that relies on profit - and socialism relies on surplus and profit as much as capitalism - is the solution.

But the version of unregulated capitalism pushed in the US is the problem - just as "unregulated communism" is a problem.

I hear you Pops and your mostly correct, but capitalism in the US is far from unregulated and the debate is about adding more or less regulations from where we are now. There are extremist on both sides that foolishly argue extreme limits in their direction but they are thankfully not going to get their wish.

[Graeme]

New Research Warns Of Catastrophic Food Shortages Due To Unchecked Climate Change

The new research is from the Global Resource Observatory, a project of Anglia Ruskin University’s Global Sustainability Institute (GSI) partnering with the UK government’s Foreign Office; Lloyds of London; a “coalition of leaders from business, politics and civil society”; the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries; and both the Africa and Asian Development Banks.

The GSI group does business-as-usual forecasting using system dynamics modeling — arguably the only type of modeling that treats feedbacks and time delays well enough to even approximate what is coming. GSI Director Aled Jones explains that the group “ran the model forward to the year 2040.” The results were stunning:

“The results show that based on plausible climate trends, and a total failure to change course, the global food supply system would face catastrophic losses, and an unprecedented epidemic of food riots. In this scenario, global society essentially collapses as food production falls permanently short of consumption.”
The “good” news: That only happens if humanity doesn’t actually do any serious planning for this outcome — and doesn’t do any serious reacting as it plays out. But homo sapiens isn’t a “brainless frog,” are we?

The GSI group also does the scenario planning underpinning a new Lloyd’s of London report “Food System Shock: The insurance impacts of acute disruption to global food supply.”

thinkprogress

[KaiserJeep]

dohboi, up until now, you have maintained AGW was problem #1. Changed your mind? How many #1's do you have?

[dohboi]

Ummm, that was the title of the article, if you hadn't noticed.

I bring all sorts of articles to the attention of the community that I don't necessarily agree with 100%.

But yes, there are certainly a lot of time bombs out there.

[Ibon]

dohboi, up until now, you have maintained AGW was problem #1. Changed your mind? How many #1's do you have?

Human Overshoot by definition means that there are many # 1's. Overshoot for any other species as well; food shortage, disease, increased inter species aggression.

[dohboi]

Good point, Ibon.

And as G's article makes clear, they are all pretty closely interlinked.

"...Catastrophic Food Shortages Due To Unchecked Climate Change"

[Lore]

It really doesn't look good for a Star Trek future.

[kmann]

This was not a problem in the '70s when Ehrlich wrote about it, and it's not a problem now... or in the foreseeable future.

[clif]

or in the foreseeable future.

If your definition of foreseeable future,

is only the next quarter or two:

....... beyond five years time frame .........

BIG PROBLEM

[Graeme]

Yes these are warnings; pins in the proverbial. "Progress" during the next ten years will be interesting to watch.

[davep]

New Research Warns Of Catastrophic Food Shortages Due To Unchecked Climate Change

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/23/3672339/society-collapse-climate-food-shortages/

The new research is from the Global Resource Observatory, a project of Anglia Ruskin University’s Global Sustainability Institute (GSI) partnering with the UK government’s Foreign Office; Lloyds of London; a “coalition of leaders from business, politics and civil society”; the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries; and both the Africa and Asian Development Banks.

The GSI group does business-as-usual forecasting using system dynamics modeling — arguably the only type of modeling that treats feedbacks and time delays well enough to even approximate what is coming. GSI Director Aled Jones explains that the group “ran the model forward to the year 2040.” The results were stunning:

“The results show that based on plausible climate trends, and a total failure to change course, the global food supply system would face catastrophic losses, and an unprecedented epidemic of food riots. In this scenario, global society essentially collapses as food production falls permanently short of consumption.”

The “good” news: That only happens if humanity doesn’t actually do any serious planning for this outcome — and doesn’t do any serious reacting as it plays out. But homo sapiens isn’t a “brainless frog,” are we?

The problem being of course that our intelligence is inversely proportional to the number of people involved.

[sparky]

.
Before everybody get hot under the collar ,
it should be pointed out that this year , food has never been as plentiful or as cheap ...like ever

from the food and agriculture organization of the united nations , the food index
http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/f ... sindex/en/

from the United States department of agriculture , the very authoritative World Agricultural Supply
and Demand Estimates
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

[kiwichick]

like the guy who jumped out of the window of a 30 storey skyscraper

when someone on the 20th floor yelled "How are you " as he fell past the window

the guy yells back "Alright so far "

all the predictions of doom can be wrong ; until one isn't.

[SeaGypsy]

The OP is obvious really, there are very few ways the die off can manifest. Global starvation is the most intractable of these, most obvious definite problem. The timeline is where it gets sketchy. There are already massive technological improvements implemented in tiny portions of current agriculture. Efficiency could be far higher than now with a much more nutrient efficient base, with full rollout of existing technologies. Then there are the factors around calorific content productivity versus market taste, for example dairy land which can almost invariably be made far more productive under orchard crops. Then the issues eventually around nationalization & quarantining when push comes to shove.

The phosphate & potash equation is particularly hairy, with only a few mother loads around the world. The nutrient cycle - insects, fish, birds, ruminants, etc connecting land & ocean, are in serious peril. There are a whole lot of species waiting in the wings wanting us to get on with self termination asap. The worst possible outcome is possible, that we as a species continue until the background genetic seed bank is so damaged the cycle can't recover, when we hit the absolute hard limit.

Starve, suffocate, eventually, after a lifetime of war. The brief reprieve which ended with the siege of Sarajevo will be a distant history to my young kids, like WW2 was to me, 22 years before my birth. This century as a century of violence & lies was pretty well a forgone conclusion. We need perpetual war now to divest the masses of their expectations of normal, including lofty ideas like mitigation, closed circle economics, population sanity.

[Newfie]

DAvep wrote:

The problem being of course that our intelligence is inversely proportional to the number of people involved.

Good one.

1
------------------
7,300,000,000

[Newfie]

.
Before everybody get hot under the collar ,
it should be pointed out that this year , food has never been as plentiful or as cheap ...like ever

from the food and agriculture organization of the united nations , the food index
http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/f ... sindex/en/

from the United States department of agriculture , the very authoritative World Agricultural Supply
and Demand Estimates
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

You know how housing prices were really high, just before the bubble burst?

Maybe that is how this is working, we will have a population bubble, artificially inflated by the "green revolution" and "global economy" until, ooopsie.

But let me ask you this.....do you see the human population rising forever? If not then to what point? Do you think we can sustain that level of population forever?

[ennui2]

I could tell this was Paul Farrell just by knowing this came from MarketWatch. Why that site employs a hardcore doomer who seems more interested in saying end-is-nigh than really reporting on business is beyond me, but he's damn lucky to maintain his meal-ticket this way.

At any rate, this is about all the guy writes about, and he writes about this stuff often. It's not particularly newsworthy because he's an outlier and everyone who comes across his editorials know it.

[PrestonSturges]

I could tell this was Paul Farrell just by knowing this came from MarketWatch. Why that site employs a hardcore doomer who seems more interested in saying end-is-nigh than really reporting on business is beyond me, but he's damn lucky to maintain his meal-ticket this way.

At any rate, this is about all the guy writes about, and he writes about this stuff often. It's not particularly newsworthy because he's an outlier and everyone who comes across his editorials know it.

The stock market loves to have a few crazy bears around. Follow them and you will lose your money. But I think they like to have someone to point to when they want to frighten investors.

[sparky]

.
I don't know about forever , I know that , with ambient temperature , age and sex taken into account
people need to eat 1000 Kcal to stay alive , 1500 to move around and much more upward to produce hard work

So far , so good ! the food production has delivered ,
but have no illusion , it's an increasingly difficult tightrope act ,
there was a big scare called "the great food crisis of 2011" ....I knew about it , hardly anyone here did.
the end of year stocks crashed , grain prices went stratospheric .
Now we have had three good years , cold winter and warm summer are perfect for grain ,
a bit too much or not enough rain is the constant moaning of farmers .
rice has had some turmoil but the growing has been very good

next year problems are that price now are too low , way too low !

[dohboi]

sparky's interpretation of "since September 2009":

ever

What a total nitwit errr, misinterpreter of clearly laid out facts.

Note: for this index, 2002-2004=100