[Monad]

Peak oil will generate the collapse of a multitude of governments. How many will survive or be able to enhance their state's relative geopolitical position?

Of special interest are the governments of Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Japan, the Balkan states (seems likely that ethnic warfare will flare up there), Greece, and Germany/Britian/France.

It seems that the economic systems, level of consumption, and energy reserves of Russia and Iran are better placed than most for peak oil. The monarchy of Saudi Arabia has wasted much of that state's potential though. Massive depopulation in India and Pakistan seem pretty unavoidable.

[TorrKing]

My opinions:

- Russia, I think they will desintigrate into chaos when enough of the surrounding states have. Still having quite a lot of oil and gas they will still be able to control a area maybe of the size of European Russia today. At least for a while.

- Iran. I think it will be divided into small tribally controlled states after the US removes the current priesthood, but eventually have to pull out due to problems at home.

- Saudi-Arabia will fall to muslim extremists or be subject of invasion pretty soon after the US leaves the Gulf for good.

- Japan is highly overpopulated and is very dependant on imports. Civil war and starvation followed by a invasion of China (if China exists that long).

- The Balkans will errupt into war again I am afraid.

- Germany/Britain/France. I think civil discontent due to PO problems will trigger bigger things here. The next (or next after that) riots in France will not be quelled as easily.

- Greece?

- I don't think any states in the modern sense will exist after some time. Without cheap oil, there is little means of controlling the population.

Torjus Gaaren

[RdSnt]

One of the only countries that I see disintegrating wholesale is the United States.
Places like Russia have a well entrenched dictatorial elite used to controlling that type of country, plus a population bred to be subjects.

Europe will have troubles no doubt but they have a depth of history and culture that will keep them better focused.

South America has gone through its period of chaos and as we can now see are re-emerging as autonomous entities.

Japan is in a tough spot and I don't have a good outlook for them.

The United States on the other hand is currently being ruled by greed filled elite amatuers leading a population comprised of selfish and ignorant fools.
There is very little evidence of a will to survive in America.

[Monad]

Russia does seem to have a hight will to remain as viable as possible and has a history suited to dealing with crises. It seems that Iran is a peculiar kind of turning point. They have high levels of nationalism and possibly hope to expand. The president appears to be inspired by ideas relating to the Mahdi/12th Imam however it is questionable whether the other elements of the leadership share the Mahdivat viewpoint that strongly.

Japan's strong historical-national ideas could help it however their economic system is so built upon the current arrangement that it will be very hard for them to deal with peak oil.

[Bolinbrooke]

The mega cities, New York, London, Paris, Brussells, Berlin, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Tokyo, Moscow, etc etc are all likely to suffer greatly under PO, with starvation and the ensuring riots and crime making these places no go zones.

Goverments may degenerate or impose strict controls on the population, but these sceranios may take years after peak to play out. However the mega cities may have problems much sooner.

[lutherquick]

Russia is it, and here is why...

A country that has energy, vast natural resources, high literacy, and a diversified economy will rule.

As important, how they optimize their energy reserves will also be important because if they are efficient, then they make the energy last. And finally, they had better have a good, or recovering military, if they have nukes and a reliable space program (launch missile, satellites, etc...) then they can protect that energy.

Some will say it's not diversified, but I would say it is the most diversified compared to any other energy "exporting" country.

Russia is generally energy efficient. The reason is that their R&R, and public transportation are far more developed than even the US. Some will say a large mansion in the US is more efficient than one in Russia, maybe so, but the average energy consumed in the US is 8 litters per person per day, while Russia it's 1.7. In terms of GDP, the US appears to have the highest, but what does it really mean when most of the US gdp is waste and the economy is subsidized by M3?

Anyway, the gas crises across Europe could indicate Russia is reaching it's second peak. But in truth she has pissing contests with Ukraine, Georgia, Eastern Europe, so why bother spending money upgrading the pipe lines? Not until clear bypass routes are defined. Russia has plenty of energy, but I think she is not interested in exporting too much. This current effort is minimal as the Russian government is using PO to trigger economic recovery. If anything, she will consume her own energy, without exponential exploitation (extraction) while diversifying her economy, while sharpening her nukes for any moron (Dr. Rice) or idiot (Bush) that has eyes on her inventory and resources.

With self sustained energy resources, be it fossil fuels or renewables, Russia has plenty of time to grow, and plenty of nukes to keep the US in her corner. The last 5 years have proven good for Russia, and the trend looks to continue with such. It will take another generation of Russians to start thinking like business men, and this is already evident as the GAS issue was only about business, not politics.

By the way, when Saudi Arabia does receive great wealth in the future, and because her economy is not diversified, where is Saudi Arabia, or Iran, or Venezuela going to buy services or products? From America? No, America will not have the energy to keep her economy going. Russia will continue to diversify her economy and will have a great market assisting other energy exporting countries in vast military build ups to keep loony dip sh!ts like Cheney, PNAC, and the RNC from innovating more invasions.

Future looks clear, America is the last place to be.

[Kingcoal]

I'll be staying put here in Pennsylvania. We have plenty of anthracite, farmland and other resources. I see peak oil as a gradual thing, with the world becoming slowly more and more local. Travel will become a luxury in the future.

All my life (I'm 43), I've heard naysayers write off the US. What I've seen happen instead is the US and other countries adapt and change. Humans are the most adaptable species on the planet, so it makes sense that this has been the case.

[frankthetank]

One thing Russia doesn't have? climate America should still be able to farm her corn/soybeans and sell that @ a premium. I'm sure tractors will get the priority over soccer moms in the future.

We've also got a healthy porn industry along with other entertainment...

[DesertBear2]

All my life (I'm 43), I've heard naysayers write off the US. What I've seen happen instead is the US and other countries adapt and change.

Unfortunately, America is heading down a dark path at this time....

[Doly]

All my life (I'm 43), I've heard naysayers write off the US. What I've seen happen instead is the US and other countries adapt and change. Humans are the most adaptable species on the planet, so it makes sense that this has been the case.

Being adaptable doesn't mean that disasters, even human-made disasters, don't happen.

And just because something never happened before in your life, it doesn't mean it won't happen.