[Gazzatrone]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2009/jan/28/falkland-islands-oil-drilling-impact

I always thought there was more to that war than just flag waving.....

Followed by the privatisation of ALL the nationalised industries that have since gone on to make purse robbing profits and closure of coal mines......

Yeh Britain did really well out of a war fought nearly 30 years ago.

[Concerned]

So what is the total tally OF2? And how many years consumption at todays rate, you could calculate with +-5%

[copious.abundance]

^
Dunno yet. A drill ship for FOGL will be arriving later this year.

[NoWorries]

"Then, just for the entertainment value I added up all the listed estimated resource sizes and got 10.5611 - 10.981 billion bbl of oil ..."


With all due respect, that's really just a drop in the bucket, especially at current rate of global consumption. By comparison Ghawar was assessed at approx. 170 billion barrels (with maybe 1/3 of that recoverable). Also, considering the enormous expense necessary to develop all those potential new fields you cited (not to mention the time required) I would doubt that half of those projects would be deemed viable within the next 5 years.

It's going to take an awful lot of small fields to offset the loss of the big proven reserves that are in decline.

[copious.abundance]

^
There are still many prospects in the list in my link which haven't been assessed. Additionally, only a minority of the seas around the Falklands have been licensed. So there are certain to be many other prospects not in my list.

Ghawar, I believe, has already produced more than the 1/3 of the 170 billion barrels you described.

Most, if not all, of those prospects will still be in the exploration phase over the next five years. This area is more of a "new oil in 10 years" kind-of deal.

[NoWorries]

re: 10 years

Then I would submit that it is a case of "too little, too late". In 10 years global consumption will be even greater (unless the economic crisis expands to an unmanageable extent).

[eXpat]

It seems as though the whole Atlantic side of S. America is picking up a lot of attention these days. Makes me wonder if Arg. has re-stocked their supply of those French anti-ship missils.

Based on this Falklands stuff, the Brazilian stuff, some great prospects off the coast of the Guianas, and a few other tidbits here and there, I've got this working hypothesis that the entire eastern coast of South America is lined with oil fields. Argentina would be the next frontier.

This concept would also apply to the entire western coast of Africa, but that's another thread.

Actually oil production in Argentina is on decline, and is importing quite a lot of gas from Bolivia for domestic consumption.
http://www.marketresearch.com/map/prod/2088700.html

[copious.abundance]

^
There has been very little drilling off the coast of Argentina. So we'll see if that lasts.

>>> For example . . . <<<

[...]

Rabinovich said Argentina shares some of the same geological traits as Brazil, which has recently made big offshore discoveries, and that it may have similarly impressive production potential.

[...]

[copious.abundance]

Looks like activity around this area might be picking up. This is in the Argentine waters near the Falklands.

>>> OGJ <<<

Repsol consortium to explore off Falklands
Eric Watkins
OGJ Oil Diplomacy Editor

LOS ANGELES, June 9--A consortium led by Repsol YPF SA plans oil and gas exploration in international waters off the Falkland Islands beginning in early 2010.

Repsol YPF executives disclosed no project details. In 2006, Repsol and Energia Argentina SA (Enarsa) signed two agreements to explore and develop oil and gas off Argentina.

The first is a 10-year strategic agreement covering all areas 100% owned by Repsol or Enarsa off Argentina within three zones of interest from the Uruguay border to the Falkland Islands.

The second agreement establishes a consortium specifically to explore the Colorado Marina basin. Consortium members are Enarsa, Repsol, Petrobras, and Petrouruguay

Repsol operates the area with 35% interest while Enarsa holds 35%, Petrobras 25%, and Petrouruguay 5%.

[...]

[eXpat]

Harsh reality keeps blowing away cornucopians dreams... In fact, down here in Argentina, the gov is struggling to keep multinat companies drilling for oil, never mind exploring or developing new fields..
According to this newspaper (article in spanish)
http://criticadigital.com/index.php?secc=nota&nid=24796
the multinats that extract petrol in the Argentina, particulary in the south: Repsol-YPF, Petrobras, Tecpetrol, Pluspetrol, Pan American Energy, Total, Oxy Petrol, Chevron, Apache and Pride are cutting the fat, either firing personnel or cancelling non essential proyects. Apache, Roch and Total have stopped activities altogether.
The fat lady is about to sing in Argentina, again.
Some backgroung info:
http://countryproductionprofiles.blogspot.com/2007/02/argentina.html

[Maddog78]

Harsh reality keeps blowing away cornucopians dreams... In fact, down here in Argentina, the gov is struggling to keep multinat companies drilling for oil, never mind exploring or developing new fields..
According to this newspaper (article in spanish)
http://criticadigital.com/index.php?secc=nota&nid=24796
the multinats that extract petrol in the Argentina, particulary in the south: Repsol-YPF, Petrobras, Tecpetrol, Pluspetrol, Pan American Energy, Total, Oxy Petrol, Chevron, Apache and Pride are cutting the fat, either firing personnel or cancelling non essential proyects. Apache, Roch and Total have stopped activities altogether.
The fat lady is about to sing in Argentina, again.
Some backgroung info:
http://countryproductionprofiles.blogspot.com/2007/02/argentina.html

Really not surprising. Oil Cos. are cutting the fat everywhere in the world.
There is a glut right now in case you don't know. OPEC has shut in around 4 million bbls/day.
We're running out of places to store the stuff every where else.
This will not last forever. When demand comes back and good cash flow resumes and crude bumps up a bit it will be game on again.
It's the nature of the oil business. Boom and Bust. Has been for the 30 yrs. I've been in it and likely will be for many years to come.

[copious.abundance]

+++ Tally ho! The link! +++

JANUARY 25, 2010.
U.K. Firms Mobilize in New Falklands Foray
Rising Oil Prices and Advances in Drilling Technology Lure Prospectors Despite Inclement Weather, Chilly Politics
By CAROLINE HENSHAW

LONDON—Twelve years after the last prospectors left the Falkland Islands, British oil-exploration companies are returning, lured by rising oil prices and advances in deep-water drilling technology.

But exploration and production around the remote wind-swept islands—best known as the location of a brief, bloody war 28 years ago—have been handicapped by a harsh climate and dicey politics.

Analysts say that as much as 60 billion barrels of high-grade oil could be found in the 200-square-mile economic zone surrounding the islands. If estimates prove correct, this could make the Falklands one of the world's largest oil reserves, comparable with the North Sea, which so far has produced about 40 billion barrels.

[...]

[rangerone314]

Sweet. Now we know where the next major oil war will be fought (assuming Iran war doesn't break out first)

[dorlomin]

UK has sod all to fight with these days - HMS Hermes sold to India in 1986. ONE Vulcan bomber left, now a flying museum piece. We had 2 new carriers on order, but one cancelled as we're skint.

Hmmm I think you may have underestimated the current strengths available. Ark Royal, Invincible and Illustrious are modern fleet carriers, Ocean is a relatively newly build assault ship on the same hull type. The SSN fleet is pretty strong with the Astute class begining to enter service while the venerable T boats are still world class. We could easily operate E3s at that kind of rage, and Tornados could in theory conduct operations that far afield. The army has kit like MRLS, Warriors, C5 Globemasters and Apaches. Oh and we have an operational squadron of Eurofighters and stocks of Tomahawks.

If they ever get the Darings (T45s) sorted we would have a real cruiser back in the fleet for the first time since Tiger and Blake were sent to be Gilleted back in the late 70s.

Back in 82 we had the Knott defence reveiw that nearly flogged the carreirs to Australia. So long we remain allied to the US the Atlantic will remain Mare Nostrum for a while yet.

[Oilguy]

The artificially-engendered revival of the dispute, which began in February 2010 between Argentina and the United Kingdom over the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands in the South Atlantic, has been portrayed as a posturing by embattled Argentine Pres. Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, taking advantage of both the start of exploratory oil and gas drilling by British company Desire Petroleum in the Falklands waters, and the talks by Latin American and Caribbean leaders of the Rio Group in the Mexican resort of Playa del Carmen, beginning on February 22, 2010. But the crisis may well play into the political posturing of equally embattled United Kingdom Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who faces a general election by June 2010 at the latest.

Britain’s presently governing Labour Party is as conscious — almost superstitiously so — of the fact that the 1982 Falklands War with Argentina revived the flagging fortunes of incumbent Conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, just as the US Democratic Party is fixated on the belief that Democratic Pres. Lyndon Johnson failed to win a second term in office because of being embroiled in the Vietnam War. As a result, the British Labour Party is unlikely to attempt to quell the dispute in the short term between the UK and Argentina, even though it plays strongly into the hands of Pres. Fernández de Kirchner.

The increasingly leftist bloc within Latin America, prompted and often financed by Venezuelan Pres. Hugo Chávez Frias, obliged Pres. Fernández on February 22, 2010, in Mexico by endorsing her attacks on the UK position and the assertion of Argentine sovereignty over the Falklands. It is clear, however, that Argentina’s population and Armed Forces are in no position to resume any form of military conflict with the United Kingdom over the Falklands, even though British forces are themselves stretched by engagement in Afghanistan.

Full article at: http://www.oilprice.com/article-renewed ... thers.html

[spiritof1976]

I don't think it's any real suprise that the current row over the Falklands is little more than posturing.

The British aren't going to hand the Falklands over to Argentina - it would be political suicide, and they doubly aren't going to do it when they've just struck oil. Likewise Argentina isn't going to try an invasion - that wouldn't be so much political suicide as actual suicide. British forces might be stretched in Afghanistan, but there's still enough troops on the islands to turn any attempted landing into a very bloody affair indeed. This is all just empty mudslinging between the two countries.

Of course, a sensible proposition would be for both countries to work together to develop the oil reserves, bringing economic benefits to Argentina, Britain and the Falkland Islanders themselves, but that ain't going to happen in the current climate.

[Oilguy]

As Argentina's oil battle with the United Kingdom rages on, the only other obstacle the South American country can throw at oil companies planning to drill near the Falkland Islands is to interdict U.K. ships or equipment - but regional expert Riordan Roett doubts the Argentines are “stupid enough to do that.”

This would be a “very dangerous move” on the part of the Argentine government, said Roett, director of Latin American studies at Johns Hopkins University in Washington. Argentina, which went to war with the U.K. in 1982 over Falklands’ sovereignty, is “very careful” about challenging the British in reaching the islands, Roett noted.

The dispute between the old foes erupted in February when U.K.'s Desire Petroleum towed an oil rig from Scotland to the South Atlantic to drill near the Falklands.

Experts tout the area beneath the islands contains as much as 60 billion barrels of crude oil but there are many doubts about this claim.

Geologists and political-risk specialists say such a vast deposit is possible -- after all, the Atlantic Coast downward from Brazil boasts a great deal of oil – but whether the Falklands is the next place to find such resources will be a question mark for “a couple of years,” Roett said.

Oil and Latin American experts, moreover, have mixed opinions about whether U.K. oil firms actually need the Argentine government's help to siphon out any oil from the contested waters.

U.K. firms can do without Argentine infrastructure but much will depend on current technologies, Roett argued. If companies can retrieve and pour oil into super tankers, it can then be shipped back to the U.K. or wherever their clients are based “without worrying about Argentina -- unless the Argentinians were stupid enough to try to stop the tankers,” he said.

Full article at: http://www.oilprice.com/article-argenti ... fight.html

[IslandCrow]

Q. What is worse than a fight about oil?
A. to fight and find the oil is not really there?

Shares in Desire Petroleum have almost halved after the oil explorer said a well being drilled off the Falkland Islands may not be economically viable.

Shares in other companies operating off the Falklands also fell amid fears that the region's reserves may disappoint.

The well is the first to be drilled off the islands for a decade, sparking a diplomatic row with Argentina which has renewed its claim to the Falklands.

Shares in Desire had plunged by 48.5% in mid-morning trading.

In a stock market announcement, Desire said that initial results from the Liz 14/19-1 well, in the North Falkland basin, showed that the quantities of oil may be small and of poor quality.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8592734.stm

[dorlomin]

So we all friends again?


Other than the English and Diego ofcourse.