[ralfy]

Kub, drawing anecdotal parallels to 100 year old systems that were underwritten by ever falling oil prices, oceans of free energy basically, just isn't going to cut it. Today everyone knows that EV aren't underwritten by ever cheaper prices going forward. It's the opposite in fact, they are underwritten by ever higher cost scarcer oil. Can't you see that?

I have been reading your posts and waiting for you to point to something positive that would actually save the EV revolution you are so enamored with. But all you come up with is vague promises by government that they are going to "do" something, or outlandish claims by battery manufacturers that they have cracked the secret code. Meanwhile more and more dark truths about the EV come to light, nails in their coffins as I allude.

You are in damage control all the time kub, like the captain of a mortally wounded war ship, directing the fire control teams as the ship lists further and further to port. At some point you're going to have to give the command, "Abandon ship, abandon ship" I only hope you have the courage and conviction to remain on deck and do just that. My experience of internet threads or forums dedicated to bubbles though tell another story. The accounts of the chief fanboys just go silent as they slip over the side and escape back to reality.

Oh is it time for psychoanalysis? Ok I'll bite. Lucky, you have decided long ago EVs are nothing but Segways and there are no facts that will convince you otherwise. I have seen you post information time and time again that is factually incorrect. You are so convinced you are correct you dismiss everything that runs contrary to your opinion out of hand. You pride yourself on the fact you don't have a TV and think yourself immune to the 'brainwashing' that 'little people' with a TV are subjected to. But then you spend all of your time reading and posting from echo chambers that echo back what you already 'know' to be the truth.

And all I do is come up with vague government promises? What a joke. I dismantled the BS you post with actual facts. Shall I list a couple of them?
1. Lucky: EVs have peaked.
Factual Rebuttal: EV sales continue to break records and so have not in fact peaked.

2. Lucky: LiFePO4s will never see mass usage.
Factual Rebuttal: LiFePO4s are already in mass usage.

3. Lucky: Sodium Ion batteries are not in production.
Factual Rebuttal: Sodium Ion batteries are already in production.

4. Lucky: Norwegian EV sales are going down, look at this graph from January sales as proof!
Factual Rebuttal: The cold winter months of January-March are the months that sales of all vehicle types tend to go down. However Norwegian EV sales in January were still higher than a year ago period. And sales came up in the following months just like they always have.

5. Lucky: EVs are not getting better, it's all just outlandish claims and BS from the government.
Factual Rebuttal:
*The average range of electric cars has more than doubled over the last decade

* "The average price of battery packs for cars dropped from $1,200 per kWh in 2010 to just $132 in 2021.

* USA: Average price of a new electric car has fallen by $15,000 in the past year

I could go on but I'll stop here. The point is you are posting bogus information, opinions, and doom projections and presenting it as facts. But it is all false. Hell, you can't even articulate my own opinion on EVs. Sure I correct the BS you post on EVs. But time and time again I have also stated my own issues I have with EVs. However since I do not swallow the BS you post you put me in the category of a vapid fanboy. And you are sitting around waiting for me to post on EVs? Go out and enjoy the sunshine and stop worrying about EVs all the time, seriously.

The world is not like the U.S., where electricity supply has to go up dramatically to meet more usage, or like Norway, where EVs are used as secondary vehicles by a country with a lot of electricity and still sells fossil fuels to pay for its costs to a world that needs a lot of fossil fuels to manufacture EVs and renewable energy components.

OTOH, the world is like both, where much of renewable energy promoted to create sustainable societies are made by mining, manufacturing, and shipping for-profit corporations that need and want the opposite of sustainability.

In addition, much of the world is industrializing and most live on only a few dollars a day. They include many working for low wages and whose governments skirt environmental regulations in order to make sure that those renewable energy components and EVs are cheap.

[theluckycountry]

And all I do is come up with vague government promises? What a joke. I dismantled the BS you post with actual facts. Shall I list a couple of them?

Certainly. But that isn't coming up with anything positive about the "EV Revolution" is it, it's just avoiding posting more vague promises

1. Lucky: EVs have peaked.
Factual Rebuttal: EV sales continue to break records and so have not in fact peaked.

Sales is irrelevant and we all know it kub. They are basically giving them away, Ford at 30k below cost, the whole EV industry, including the charging industry is collapsing, that's the sign of peak

2. Lucky: LiFePO4s will never see mass usage.
Factual Rebuttal: LiFePO4s are already in mass usage.

Now that's a lie! I use lithium iron phosphate myself, they're in mass usage already, just not in electric cars. Nor will they ever be since the EV bubble has popped. The only people left to admit it are the government and they, as we know, never admit to anything.

3. Lucky: Sodium Ion batteries are not in production.
Factual Rebuttal: Sodium Ion batteries are already in production.

So are Fusion power plants, so what

* "The average price of battery packs for cars dropped from $1,200 per kWh in 2010 to just $132 in 2021.

And your point? Has it boosted the declining rate of sales? Has it saved the dozen or so EV makers that have recently gone to the wall? Has it convinced Ford to boost it's manufacture of trucks? No!

I could go on but I'll stop here. The point is you are posting bogus information

Well done kub, you managed to avoid all the important questions. Oh you blamed some of them on higher interest rates in an earlier post but the rate of sales increase has been falling for a year now. And all that year EV prices were progressively dropped. Fewer and fewer people that once considered an EV are backing away, even at the much lower prices, why? Because they have Woke UP. Or should I say, become un-Woke

Now for once in a year kub stop digging around in the past and come up some up to date Good News. Can you do that? Can you find anything really positive to comment on as far as the EV complex is concerned? Surely kub there must be something, in another decade and a half they will be the only cars sold in many countries remember. The whole world is transitioning to the EV, remember?

In the early 2000s, Segway made waves by predicting their self-balancing personal transporters would revolutionize urban mobility with the Segway Personal Transporter (PT). It was predicted that cities would need to undergo a fundamental planning shift to accommodate what they thought would be the exponential growth of their platform.

2021: Did You See Biden’s New Electric Vehicle Goal?

Last week, Biden signed an executive order declaring that “America must lead the world on clean and efficient cars and trucks.”...a key part of the order is for EVs to account for 50% of all cars and trucks sold in 2030.

50%. Better get a move on kub

[kublikhan]

Certainly. But that isn't coming up with anything positive about the "EV Revolution" is it, it's just avoiding posting more vague promises

You see that's where we are different. You like to scream: doom is coming! I on the other hand like to post facts about what has already happened. And in the process dismantle the BS you post about your 'known truths'.

Sales is irrelevant and we all know it kub. They are basically giving them away, Ford at 30k below cost, the whole EV industry, including the charging industry is collapsing, that's the sign of peak

It can take a decade or more for a company to turn a profit in a highly innovative industry. I would be shocked if Ford was making a profit on EVs after a year:

Tesla, Uber, Dropbox and Twitter took more than a decade to turn a profit, compared with tech giants Apple, Google and Facebook (now Meta), which reached this milestone within five years. For businesses focused on staying 10 steps ahead of their competition to meet the ever-growing needs of modern consumers, such as Amazon and Airbnb, the investments to make this possible can prolong gaining a quick return. From reducing shipping rates to tech upgrades and increasing brand awareness, investing in long-term gains in place of short-term wins is a decision and potential risk that every business grapples with.

Now that's a lie! I use lithium iron phosphate myself, they're in mass usage already, just not in electric cars. Nor will they ever be since the EV bubble has popped. The only people left to admit it are the government and they, as we know, never admit to anything.

Typical lucky BS: post a lie and claim it is obvious. Lithium iron phosphate is already in mass usage in EVs. And you should know this since I have posted it multiple times. But like I said in my previous post, you ignore anything that goes against your 'know truths'. Since you 'know' lithium iron phosphate is not used by EVs, you can never unlearn this fact. It will remain 'obvious' to you until the day you die.

Tesla is changing the battery chemistry it uses in all its standard-range electric vehicles to a version with a lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) cathode. The move is likely a way for Tesla to increase profit margins on its fully electric cars, while not necessarily having to raise vehicle prices.

Snow Bull Capital CEO Taylor Ogan, a long-time Tesla bull, told CNBC, “LFP batteries are cheaper and safer. With this chemistry, you can charge your vehicle’s battery up to 100% and not worry as much about degradation long-term. The other thing is these batteries are really easy to recycle. And sourcing raw materials for these is easier to do, ethically. That’s why iron-based batteries are really the battery of China already, and they’re all you need for standard-range cars.”

Advantages of using Lithium Iron Phosphate
Safety: Safety is a primary concern for EV manufacturers, and LFP excels in this aspect. Compared to nickel and cobalt-based chemistries, LFP is inherently more stable, less prone to thermal runaway, and has a lower risk of catching fire or exploding during charging or discharging events.

Enhanced Thermal Stability: LFP exhibits superior thermal stability, allowing it to operate in a wider temperature range without compromising performance. This makes LiFePO4 batteries more reliable and suitable for extreme weather conditions.

Longer Lifespan: LFP batteries have a significantly longer cycle life compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries. They can endure a greater number of charge-discharge cycles without substantial capacity degradation, making them highly durable and cost-effective over the long term.

Higher Power Density: LFP batteries can deliver high power output, enabling rapid charging and discharging. This characteristic makes them particularly suitable for applications that demand quick acceleration and regenerative braking, such as electric vehicles.

Environmental Friendliness: LFP batteries are more environmentally friendly than nickel and cobalt-based alternatives. The raw materials used in LFP production are abundant and widely available, reducing the environmental impact associated with mining and extraction.

Implications for the EV Industry
The growing adoption of LFP batteries in the EV industry signifies a significant shift towards safer and more sustainable energy storage solutions. By prioritizing safety and reliability, car manufacturers are ensuring that EVs become a mainstream choice for consumers.

Moreover, the reduced reliance on nickel and cobalt brings economic advantages, as these materials are often expensive and can be sourced from politically unstable regions. LFP’s abundant and widely available raw materials offer a more stable supply chain, reducing potential price volatility and supply chain disruptions.

Lithium Iron Phosphate has emerged as the favoured choice for car manufacturers in the realm of EV battery technology. Its safety, enhanced thermal stability, longer lifespan, higher power density, and environmental friendliness have positioned it as a compelling alternative to nickel and cobalt-based chemistries.

Explained: What is lithium iron phosphate and why are EV manufacturers going crazy over it

3. Lucky: Sodium Ion batteries are not in production.
Factual Rebuttal: Sodium Ion batteries are already in production.

So are Fusion power plants, so what

Fusion is still in the research and development stage. Sodium Ion batteries are already being used by end consumers. And the first EVs with them are being delivered as well:

JAC has begun delivering electric vehicles (EVs) equipped with sodium-ion batteries, marking the official market entry of EVs equipped with the new power batteries. The sodium-ion battery-equipped model has a battery pack capacity of 23.2 kWh, a CLTC range of 230 km, and can be charged from 10 percent to 80 percent in 20 minutes.

Yiwei, a new brand of JAC that focuses on the EV market, officially delivered the world's first sodium-ion battery-powered EVs in volume on January 5 in Anqing, Anhui province. The model is a new variant of the Yiwei 3, the first model of the Yiwei brand, and uses 32140 sodium-ion cylindrical cells from battery maker Hina Battery.

These new cells use a copper base layer-like oxide technology route, which has advantages in safety, energy density, low temperature performance, and cycle life, the report noted. The sodium-ion battery-equipped Yiwei model has a battery pack capacity of 23.2 kWh and a CLTC range of 230 km, with an electricity consumption of about 10 kWh per 100 km. Compared to lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, sodium-ion batteries have better low-temperature performance, with over 92 percent capacity retention at -20°C.

Even in extremely cold regions, the model's winter range degradation is negligible. The battery also supports faster charging speeds, going from 10 percent to 80 percent in 20 minutes and from 30 percent to 80 percent in 15 minutes, double the charging speed of current mainstream LFP batteries.

Hina Battery, one of the major players in sodium-ion batteries, unveiled three sodium-ion battery cell products on February 23, 2023, and announced a partnership with JAC. On December 27, Hina Battery announced that a model powered by sodium-ion batteries, which it built jointly with JAC, rolled off the production line.

JAC's Yiwei brand starts delivering EVs equipped with sodium-ion batteries

Jan. 9, 2024 - On December 28th, a ceremony at JMEV's EV plant in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province celebrated the rollout of the world's first electric vehicle (EV) powered by Farasis Energy's sodium-ion batteries. With the introduction of sodium-ion batteries, China's electric vehicle (EV) sector enters a transformative phase, marking a significant shift in battery technology.

* Energy density: 140 to 160Wh/kg;
* Safety: The battery cells have undergone extensive testing, successfully passing multiple tests including pinprick, overcharging, over-discharging, extrusion, and soaking. The battery pack complies with the no thermal runaway (NO TP) standard.
* Cycle life: The extended lifespan satisfies the needs of electric passenger vehicles.

Farasis Energy is gearing up for the next big leap in battery technology, eyeing the launch of its second-generation sodium-ion batteries in 2024. These are projected to have an energy density of 160-180Wh/kg, with plans to ramp up to 180-200Wh/kg in 2026, targeting a wider array of use cases.

As mass production of sodium-ion batteries commences, Farasis Energy is strategically poised to diversify its product portfolio, catering to various market needs. This positions the company for continued success in acquiring customers both domestically and internationally. With excellent low-temperature performance, sodium-ion batteries effectively address the low range challenge faced by EVs in colder climates. In addition, the safety and affordability ensure the provision of options applicable to a broader spectrum of scenarios while enhancing the user experience.

The World's First EV Powered by Farasis Energy's Sodium-ion Batteries Rolls Off the Assembly Line

[kublikhan]

The average price of battery packs for cars dropped from $1,200 per kWh in 2010 to just $132 in 2021.

And your point? Has it boosted the declining rate of sales? Has it saved the dozen or so EV makers that have recently gone to the wall? Has it convinced Ford to boost it's manufacture of trucks? No!

The battery is the largest priced component in an EV. And over the last decade the price fell an order of magnitude. And price declines will continue in the future as well. Price is one of the largest hang-ups people have with EVs.

Well done kub, you managed to avoid all the important questions. Oh you blamed some of them on higher interest rates in an earlier post but the rate of sales increase has been falling for a year now. And all that year EV prices were progressively dropped. Fewer and fewer people that once considered an EV are backing away, even at the much lower prices, why? Because they have Woke UP. Or should I say, become un-Woke

Now for once in a year kub stop digging around in the past and come up some up to date Good News. Can you do that? Can you find anything really positive to comment on as far as the EV complex is concerned? Surely kub there must be something, in another decade and a half they will be the only cars sold in many countries remember. The whole world is transitioning to the EV, remember?

I just explained this to you: I prefer to post verified facts, whereas you like to post "Doom is coming!" And once again you are arguing with a strawman. Not once did I ever claim only EVs will be sold in a decade and a half. This is just another example of you posting BS. But if you are so set on ANY positive news for EVs, here you go:

Tesla (TSLA) confirmed that it is increasing its planned capital spending to $10 billion this year as it tries to achieve its next growth phase. In its 10-K SEC filing today, Tesla confirmed that it spent $8.9 billion in capital expenditure in 2023:

'Capital expenditures amounted to $8.90 billion in 2023, compared to $7.16 billion in 2022, representing an increase of $1.74 billion. Sustained growth has allowed our business to generally fund itself, and we will continue investing in a number of capital-intensive projects and research and development in upcoming periods.'

That was a new record of spending for Tesla in 2023, but now the company says that it will be even higher this year.

Tesla disclosed that it plans to spend more than $10 billion this year:

'Owing and subject to the foregoing as well as the pipeline of announced projects under development, all other continuing infrastructure growth and varying levels of inflation, we currently expect our capital expenditures to exceed $10.00 billion in 2024 and be between $8.00 to $10.00 billion in each of the following two fiscal years.'

Tesla (TSLA) plans to spend $10 billion this year to achieve next growth phase

Tesla is bumping up it's spending this year to $10 billion. Apparently they did not get the memo EVs are dead. Neither did the people whose job is to actually monitor this market:

Electrification shift looks unstoppable despite near-term uncertainty in Europe & US
The past few years have seen many OEMs reaffirming electrification ambitions for the coming five to 15 years. More recently the narrative has shifted, with some automakers highlighting the twin challenges of the electrification transition—scaling output of sellable BEVs and finding willing customers to buy them.

Reports of the demise of electric vehicles have been greatly exaggerated, and S&P Global Mobility projects global sales for battery electric passenger vehicles to be on track to post 13.3 million units for 2024 – accounting for an estimated 16.2% of global passenger vehicle sales. For reference, 2023 posted an estimated 9.6 million BEVs, for 12% market share.

S&P Global Mobility forecasts 88.3M auto sales in 2024

January 14, 2024 - Car and Driver has a rosy prediction for the EV revolution in 2024. It says EV sales in the US in 2023 were the highest ever, both in sheer numbers and as a percentage of the overall new car market.

2024 is expected to set another EV sales record both for volume and total market share. Colin McKerracher of Bloomberg projects EV sales in the US this year will total about 1.9 million units or 13 percent of new car purchases. This year should see fewer of the supply constraints that hobbled availability over the last four years. Depending on a host of factors, some analysts suggest overall vehicle sales could be 1 million vehicles or more higher than last year.

A Ray Of Sunshine
One reason for optimism is that a number of new EV models are arriving this year. Three row SUVs are the sweet spot in the new car market at present and the Kia EV9 is a three row electric SUV that happens to cost less than other similar vehicles in the US market such as the Mercedes EQS SUV, the Rivian R1S, and the Tesla Model X. The very similar Hyundai Ioniq 7 is scheduled to arrive by the end of this year.

Inexpensive Cars From China
The longer GM and Ford dither and diddle getting EV production started, the more the door will open to inexpensive electric cars from China. The Volvo EX30 is due in showrooms this summer and will carry a starting price under $40,000. Given the 27.5 percent tariff on Chinese cars imported into the US, expect Chinese automakers like BYD to import cars built in Mexico or Brazil, two countries exempt from that import tariff.

If you want to know where the action is in the EV world, look to see what is happening in China. EV sales in that country are expected to hit 10 million this year — half of all electric cars sold globally. Almost four out of every 10 new vehicles sold in China this year will be an EV. That in turn will give Chinese manufacturers like BYD the experience and higher volumes they need to keep cutting costs.

China has spent the past ten years and hundreds of billions of dollars of strategic investment by national, state, and local Chinese governments to dominate the EV space. China now leads in EV metals, battery assembly, and EV production worldwide. Despite lavish promises and tens of billions worth of investments made or planned, Detroit’s automakers aren’t anywhere close to that scale, nor are European automakers or other Asian companies.

Car and Driver says the US has unique constraints, since ginormous SUVs and trucks are what most American consumers want. Those vehicles tend to be priced cars at $60,000 or more largely because they need enormous battery packs to give them adequate range. Because such behemoths are not in demand elsewhere, American manufacturers face a limited export market for their EV products.

The Takeaway
Bear in mind that the EV revolution is only about 12 years old. Yes, there are challenges — high costs, poor charging infrastructure, and limited selection. But those issues are being addressed. Are some plans for manufacturing electric car in the US being scaled back of deferred? Yes they are. But deferred is not the same as cancelled. There will be more EVs sold in America this year than last and even more the year after that.

The EV Revolution In The US Is Just Getting Started

I have to agree with Car and Driver here. The US obsession with huge trucks is not really the right direction to take, especially with EVs. I think smaller EVs make more sense, as are popular in markets outside the US. If the traditional US automakers continue to favor EV trucks like the Ford Lightning, I would not be surprised to see them continue to languish compared to their rivals.

[theluckycountry]

Sorry kub, but you're talking to yourself now. I'll continue to post stories about the collapse of the EV revolution but I don't want to wade through any more of your delusions, you're on the list with AdamB

[theluckycountry]

Taxpayer-Funded Electric Busses Are Sitting Broken Down And Idled Across The Country

Fox cites several examples, including authorities in Asheville, North Carolina, who have encountered numerous difficulties with their electric bus fleet, leading to the idling of three out of five buses bought in 2018 for "millions". These challenges stem from an assortment of software glitches, mechanical failures, and the unavailability of necessary spare parts.

In a similar vein, The Denver Gazette highlighted issues in Colorado Springs, where Mountain Metropolitan Transit's electric bus initiative faces setbacks. Of the four e-buses procured in 2021, each costing $1.2 million primarily funded by governmental grants, two are currently non-operational.

One of the key reasons the electric bus industry isn't evolving? The free market has already sent it a message by bankrupting its key supplier and largest e-bus manufacturer in the U.S., a company called Proterra. It filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in August, exacerbating issues for cities with their buses.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/taxpa ... ss-country

E-buses were a stupid idea in the first place. It's one mistake to scale up a remote-control car to a full size passenger vehicle but total stupidity to make a bus out of it. The problem? Power to weight. A decent toy car like a HP-Vorsa may set you back $500 and the battery pack to run it $100. Go to a car and it's $50k+, where 30% is battery cost. That's factory, where the battery is installed as the vehicle is built, to replace one is a lot more expensive typically because you have to disassemble the cars down to the chassis.

As I have explained here before, the US along with all western nations is an Empire of Debt. Not only can the tens of Trillions never be repaid but Trillions more must be created and pushed into the economy each year just to keep the illusion going. It's why Governments spend millions on such pointless E-bus fleets, why they spend billions funding elon's rockets, and why they spend trillions fighting wars all over the globe.

So when you see these things fail, don't look for a reason why a good idea went bad, just accept the truth that the whole system is corrupt and technically bankrupt and that nothing that happens now is of any consequence at all.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/797 ... icle-cost/

[theluckycountry]

Hertz Ceo Just Shut Down EV Rentals

6 February 2024 Another screeching U-turn on EVs! Hertz halts deal to buy 50,000 electric Polestars but agrees not to sell the 13,000 it has bought (to avoid a fire sale tanking secondhand values) https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/c ... estar.html

Ok, you got suckered in and bought an EV because you wanted to, "save the planet", are you going to sell it 3 months later after you discover you're mistake? Of course not, you'll lose a fortune. Do you tell your friends what an idiot you were for not doing your homework? No, your ego makes you pretend all is well. It's a different matter though when you're renting them, or running a rental fleet. Here there is no room for ego, only rational decisions.

The fact that the largest rental company is abandoning the EV says it all. If the customer base wanted them they would keep them and simply put up the rental cost to cover the insurance and extra running costs but...

Private Sector Shuns Electric Cars, Government Remains Committed: And My Personal EV Rental Tale

February 05 2024 I will share my own personal experience with a recent 2-day EV rental from Hertz to take a trip from the Victorville area to Calexico, right by the border. If I were to have taken a gas vehicle or even my Prius, it would have been a very simple 380-mile round trip. I may not even have needed to fill up my gas tank and did the whole trip on one tank of gas. At worst I would have filled my gas tank once, costing the same amount of money, I paid in electric charges, with 5 minutes at the most at a gas station.

Instead, I had to stop at least 5 times, wait for a combined 3 or 4 wasted hours and had to deal with constantly trying to find EV charging stations...

https://www.citywatchla.com/voices/2839 ... ental-tale

Avis surprised me with an EV

Today I finally tried to figure out how to charge the thing and it was a humiliating and frustrating experience. The first public charging station I came across had all of the charging cables severed. The next one had broken credit card readers. I then tried like 5+ more, driving around like an idiot, only to find they all don't exist anymore or are locked away in a parking garage that wasn't open yet (this was like 6am in the morning).

I finally went back to the place with the broken credit card reader and was able to pay via an app instead, and charged for like 40 minutes to only charge the car up by like 20%. I'm going to have to go spend another early morning sitting in the car for 1+ hour with a baby in the car probably at least once to make it through my trip. And seems Avis will charge me $35 for returning the car below 70% charged.

https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicl ... ith_an_ev/

[mousepad]

The fact that the largest rental company is abandoning the EV says it all.

I'm not sure if that says it all. I could imagine that cars are mostly rented by two types:
1. tourists, who will drive a lot in an unfamiliar area, not wanting to deal with finding charge points
2. business types, who have no time running around finding and waiting for chargers

In my opinion EV are good for commute. You charge at home over night, you do your commute/errand, and maybe charge at work. That's it. It's two different use cases.

[yellowcanoe]

The fact that the largest rental company is abandoning the EV says it all.

I'm not sure if that says it all. I could imagine that cars are mostly rented by two types:
1. tourists, who will drive a lot in an unfamiliar area, not wanting to deal with finding charge points
2. business types, who have no time running around finding and waiting for chargers

It's also the case that rental companies want to fully utilize the vehicles they have . If you book a subcompact car there is a good chance you'll actually get a much larger vehicle (though you'll still pay the subcompact price). It's conceivable that someone who was expecting to get a conventional ICE vehicle was getting an electric car instead.

[theluckycountry]

The fact that the largest rental company is abandoning the EV says it all.

I'm not sure if that says it all. I could imagine that cars are mostly rented by two types:
1. tourists, who will drive a lot in an unfamiliar area, not wanting to deal with finding charge points
2. business types, who have no time running around finding and waiting for chargers

In my opinion EV are good for commute. You charge at home over night, you do your commute/errand, and maybe charge at work. That's it. It's two different use cases.

I agree mousepad, with all of that, and it bears repeating so I quoted it in full. I have always said they have their niche, the inner city commuter for those wealthy enough to afford their own solar charging infrastructure or who are prepared to pay the power bill. The so called Green voter. When I talk of these toys though it's always in regard to the political opinion set forward that many posters here have been sucked in by, that the EV is the future mode of transport replacing ICE.

The simple fact that the commercial side of transport has rejected them in one sense does say it all. It's sending the clear message that the EV will not be the replacement for ICE. The collapsing charging infrastructure, which is barely off the ground, the falling rate of sales increase to the household consumer, the piling up of EV on lots and the statements of car retailers saying they want out is another but not so definitive indicator.

[Carnot]

Lucky,

I am only an occasional poster but I do like your EV story.

I looked at an EV about 5 years ago and did my homework. It is not worth the hassle. Go buy a hybrid as it is cheaper and more reliable. The latest EV's are merely an IPad on 4 wheels with with seats.

Where I live, the UK, sales are rolling over fast. Private buyers are rarity and very soon company buyers are going to back away because of the cost. Skyrocketing insurance costs, poor productivity and depreciation like a chest of drawers falling off a cliff. Then there is the fire risk and risk of electrocution. Never touch and EV in an accident - it might be live.

There some who have a polemic belief that EV's are cool and green. Green they are not The amount of mining required to produce all the inputs is staggering. Many times that of an ICE and then there is also the extra weight which wears out tyres, brakes and the road surface. They are no zero emissions by any means. What makes me laugh is all the diesel generators secreted away at some of the charging points; all because the grid cannot cope. Fossil EV's

I used to be a road warrior. I spent many years driving around the US in rental cars. I knew every nearest gas station at the airports I frequented so that I could return the car full and avoid a surcharge. I got surcharged on one occasion and sent a copy of the gasoline receipt for the fuel to prove my innocence, and I got a refund. Try doing that with an EV. Only and idiot would rent an EV. Nothing but hassle.

If the battery price did fall to sub $135 per kWh then a 65 kWh battery should cost under $9k. You would be lucky to get a Tesla battery for 3 X that.

That is why used EV's are not wanted. No-one wants a used battery and I would not want a 3 year old iPad on wheels.

Meanwhile Polestar are heading for the rocks with all plates leaking and Ford and GM are wondering how to shift the metal. With great difficulty is the answer. More subsidies please.

Those who want EV's, for whatever reason, probably have them by now. Those who want to trade them in will probably not buy another after getting burned. The lease companies would be definitely not a buy as an investment.

Keep up the good work.

[mousepad]

https://qz.com/tesla-south-korea-sales- ... 1851234025

Tesla sold only 1 car in South Korea last month

I get a lot of anecdotal data recently from all over the world that EV are tanking bad. The fanbois all bought their toy by now. And normal people don't want that stuff.
Too early to call, we need to wait for official numbers. But I'd predict that the exponential growth of EV taking over the world is over.

[kublikhan]

If the battery price did fall to sub $135 per kWh then a 65 kWh battery should cost under $9k. You would be lucky to get a Tesla battery for 3 X that.

Much of that cost is labor or other costs. The battery itself was only $139/kWh last year($128/kWh for EVs). It's the same reason total system costs for solar PV systems are higher than just the cost of solar panels themselves. There are labor costs, inverter costs, possible battery storage costs, etc.

The price of lithium-ion battery packs has dropped 14% to a record low of $139/kWh. This was driven by raw material and component prices falling as production capacity increased across all parts of the battery value chain, while demand growth fell short of some industry expectations.

The analysis indicates that battery demand across electric vehicles and stationary energy storage is still on track to grow at a remarkable pace of 53% year-on-year, reaching 950 gigawatt-hours in 2023.

The figures represent an average across multiple battery end-uses, including different types of electric vehicles, buses and stationary storage projects. For battery electric vehicle (BEV) packs, prices were $128/kWh on a volume-weighted average basis in 2023. At the cell level, average prices for BEVs were just $89/kWh. This indicates that on average, cells account for 78% of the total pack price.

The industry continues to switch to the low-cost cathode chemistry known as lithium iron phosphate (LFP). These packs and cells had the lowest global weighted-average prices, at $130/kWh and $95/kWh, respectively. This is the first year that BNEF’s analysis found LFP average cell prices falling below $100/kWh. On average, LFP cells were 32% cheaper than lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) cells in 2023.



Miners and metals traders surveyed expect prices for key battery metals like lithium, nickel and cobalt to ease further in 2024. Given this, BNEF expects average battery pack prices to drop again next year, reaching $133/kWh (in real 2023 dollars). Technological innovation and manufacturing improvement should drive further declines in battery pack prices in the coming years, to $113/kWh in 2025 and $80/kWh in 2030.

Lithium-Ion Battery Pack Prices Hit Record Low of $139/kWh

[kublikhan]

Too early to call, we need to wait for official numbers. But I'd predict that the exponential growth of EV taking over the world is over.

January numbers are out. Ford EV sales are down. Tesla, Rivian, Lucid, and BYD are up.

Feb 3, 2024 - Last month, Ford sold 4,674 all-electric vehicles, 11% less than a year ago.

Ford U.S. EV Sales Decreased 11% In January 2024

Feb 1 2024
BYD EV sales momentum continues in January
BYD sold 105,304 fully electric cars last month, up 48% from the 71,338 handed over last year. Interestingly, BYD’s all-electric vehicles are beginning to outpace its plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). BYD’s PHEV sales were up 21% to 95,715 last month.

After selling nearly 1.6 million EVs in 2023, BYD is fueling growth with an overseas expansion. The company delivered a record 36,174 vehicles overseas in January. With 526,409 EVs sold in the final three months of 2023, BYD topped Tesla’s 484,507 deliveries for the EV sales crown.

BYD EV sales grew nearly 50% in January as exports reached a new high

Feb 2, 2024 - Tesla sales increased 8.6% from last January to 53,850 estimated units. Rivian sales were up 103.4%. Lucid Motors sales were up 11.7%.

USA - Flash report, Automotive sales volume, 2024

[mousepad]

Rivian sales were up 103.4%.

They went from 2500 to 5000 trucks sold. Laughing my ass off.

[theluckycountry]

Lucky,

I am only an occasional poster but I do like your EV story.

I looked at an EV about 5 years ago and did my homework. It is not worth the hassle. Go buy a hybrid as it is cheaper and more reliable. The latest EV's are merely an IPad on 4 wheels with with seats.

Where I live, the UK, sales are rolling over fast. Private buyers are rarity and very soon company buyers are going to back away because of the cost.

Keep up the good work...

Thanks Carnot, It has been a bit of an echo chamber here of late I am afraid, an empty one, so your post is welcome. You state all the downsides and they are Legion are they not. If it was one or two there might be hope but we both know that the EV was a concept flawed from the outset simply based on the ranges people like to drive and the convenience they demand as far as refueling. And lets not even talk about driving them on dirt roads!

In hindsight it doesn't surprise me so many people came on board with EV, there are always people wanting to be trendy and have the latest, just look at the thousands of idiots that sleep outside apple stores just to buy an the latest untested iphone on the morning of release. Humans, 'consumers' follow each other in herds and if the marketing is strong enough they will jump in regardless as long as they believe other people are making a similar choice. But that psychology works both ways, and now the Word is out that the EV is a lemon they are turning away in droves.

It's a great shame that in our modern society people don't get together in groups and really talk honestly about issues like in days past. Now people are isolated, and they get their 'wisdom' from the TV set and from online marketing etc. When they do get together with their peers it's only to brag to each other typically. When Gasoline cars began the government was fully behind them, building sealed roads, stronger bridges etc etc. For years the government says it's 100% behind the EV but they never (in the US or anywhere for that matter) put any effort or money into the basics, like a reliable fast charging network.

It was all talk and some BS subsidies which as we know is simply a grant to the EV maker to increase sales, just like a first home buyers grant, which down here we call "the new home builders grant". Governments I believe sang the song because it fitted with the climate change fears. It gave people the opinion that they were on the ball and solving the issue as well as oil depletion. Out of the hundreds of posters on this forum that have over the years believed in an EV transition there is only one left. He must work for the industry I suspect, or be a paid astroturfer No rational person would still be promoting them otherwise.

[theluckycountry]

https://qz.com/tesla-south-korea-sales-elon-musk-1851234025

Tesla sold only 1 car in South Korea last month

...as consumers there remain concerned with inflation and Elon Musk’s EV company continues to deal with a lack of chargers in the country.

Inflation comes and goes but the chargers are the elephant in the room, and an insurmountable one.

The numbers have been run over and over, for a transition to EV the grid, and it's output (power stations), would need to be at least doubled, some say increased 4 fold to accommodate the load. That was never going to happen, nations can't even maintain what they have now. At least any nation outside of perhaps Saudi Arabia and Norway (oil rich nations)

All national infrastructure from Roads, bridges and dams, to water, sewage and power networks are falling to pieces before our very eyes. Why? Because the cheap oil age that allowed us to built it in the first place is over. That's the message of peakoil, that's why this forum was started in the first place Because It's Over! But many here seem to have forgotten that? Instead of looking for practical personal solutions to peakoil issues many have been suckered into believing they can go on living as we had in the 20th century. A classic cornucopian mindset. Some of us will too, but not the common people, not the ones unprepared. The common people, who watch their lives slide out of view.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuTMWgOduFM

[williamWL]

In considering the future of electric vehicles (EVs), one might contemplate their potential to revolutionize transportation, reduce emissions, and enhance energy sustainability. Factors such as battery technology advancements, charging infrastructure expansion, and consumer adoption rates play crucial roles in shaping the EV landscape. pikashow

[williamWL]

It's true that Tesla's construction practices are worse that legacy car manufacturers, but in one sense they have it right. The batteries in these cars are so expensive to replace that after 10 years or so it makes more sense to just buy another car, like another toaster or kettle or iphone. Why spend extra making a car repairable when it will be on the scrap heap in a decade? This is their thinking perhaps. I don't agree with making cars like modern toasters but it doesn't surprise me, it's happened to the the building industry, many industries if you look around. It's the sad truth I am afraid.

The commenter's perspective reflects a shift towards disposable consumerism, where longevity and repairability take a backseat to convenience and short-term gains. This mindset prioritizes immediate gratification over sustainability and overlooks the long-term environmental and economic implications of such practices.

[yellowcanoe]

All national infrastructure from Roads, bridges and dams, to water, sewage and power networks are falling to pieces before our very eyes. Why? Because the cheap oil age that allowed us to built it in the first place is over. That's the message of peakoil, that's why this forum was started in the first place Because It's Over! But many here seem to have forgotten that? Instead of looking for practical personal solutions to peakoil issues many have been suckered into believing they can go on living as we had in the 20th century. A classic cornucopian mindset. Some of us will too, but not the common people, not the ones unprepared. The common people, who watch their lives slide out of view.

Oil is still plentiful though it does cost more. I think governments have less to spend on infrastructure because they now spend so much on transfers to individuals, medical care, higher education and emergency services. If you look at Canada, expenditures on these items 60 years ago would have been insignificant compared to what is spent now. Costs of these items go up at a rate greater than the inflation rate and individual worker productivity hasn't kept up either. To keep up, governments would need to keep increasing taxes which would leave workers with less and less money for themselves. That would not be popular politically and is the primary reason why governments keep running deficits.

We are certainly in for a world of hurt once we pass peak oil production!