[theluckycountry]

As last year drew to a close, doughy-eyed electric vehicle (EV) evangelists heralded 2024 as the year of the battery-powered motor. Some of the sector’s KoolAid drinkers forecast a 70 per cent year-on-year increase in sales, while others likened the pent-up demand among consumers to that of a “dam showing signs of leeking” ready to “collapse in the coming months”.

Fast forward just four of those months, and little of this has come to pass. New data, out on Thursday, from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), found new EV registrations were up just 3.8 per cent in Britain, with almost all of this growth coming from business and fleet purchases.

Among actual drivers – whose concerns with range and the higher up-front cost of an electric vehicle have been well documented – sales are actually falling.

Such EV ennui is, unsurprisingly, reflected in the sales numbers of the world’s two largest sellers of EV companies. Both Tesla and Chinese market-leader BYD have reported a sharp decline in sales, prompting speculation that – without new technology to allay consumers’ fears – we may have already reached peak EV.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/week- ... ibee_uxXnv

Reached and passed it.

[theluckycountry]

Tesla shares bounced this week, up to a market cap of $551 Billion. Which means shit since it has a price to earnings ratio of 40:1 and there is no way in Hell that the sale of it's assets would come close to half a trillion. A few factories, a hundred thousand unwanted cars, and 9 billion debt. But leaving this aside, what do we attribute the 5% hike in share valuations to? Musk unveiling the robotaxi angle? That's what the mass media claim, but lets consider another possible reason.

As of last year, Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund held 2.6% of Tesla's shares, that's on a given day because it's a mutual fund and Vanguard is one of many 401(k) plan recipients. When these private pension funds put money into the mutual fund side they do it with allocations from those paying in, obviously. Every fortnight or every month employee and employer contributions are sent the Vanguard, and many others like it, and then at some point this pile of money goes into the market and buys Tesla and other stocks. When? How much? Where talking real money here.

-At the end of 2022, global pension assets stood at US$50.2trn.
-It estimated that the return for a portfolio consisting of 60 per cent global equities and 40 per cent global bonds was 16.6 per cent on average in 2023. (most is in the stock markets)
-The United States (US) was the largest single pensions market, accounting for 63.9 per cent of the assets among the 22 largest pension markets (P22)
-
Nearly all (91 per cent) of the P22’s assets were concentrated in the seven largest markets (P7): Australia, Canada, Japan, the Netherlands, Switzerland, the UK, and US.

https://www.pensionsage.com/pa/Global-p ... n-2023.php

So what's my point? The rise of Tesla, or any other 'darling' stock could be directly the result of the big players in the pension funds making regular deposits of 401k and other retirement monies into them.

There is very little overall transparency in these systems. Always vague statements about "retail investors" as though it's always individual people or entities making wise considered decisions with their money. But these private pension funds make their money whether the market goes up or down, they don't care about little people, little people come and go and the money rolls in regardless of market conditions. Think about that! They'll get their golden parachutes no matter what happens to your life savings.

[kublikhan]

I found this video much more balanced than the clickbait stuff posted earlier in the thread. It presents many of the issues EVs have without sounding so hyperbolic: What Has Happened to EV Sales?

[theluckycountry]

Patrick Boyle is a hedge fund manager, a university professor and a former investment banker. This channel is all about quantitative finance. By subscribing you will see videos explaining what is happening in markets right now, you will learn about financial derivatives, how traders use statistics and corporate finance.

Ok, now I know who I'm listening to. Lets watch kubs vid...

Well, what can I say, he nailed it. Thanks kub.

[ralfy]

To address Boyle's points, in order to have sustained EV sales, there will have to be more home owners, etc. That means 7 out of 10 people worldwide will have to live on more than $10 daily, with the other three wanting them to do so because their own incomes and ROIs are dependent on sustained EV sales. That explains the press releases in this thread showing and then hoping for that.

In order for the seven to do so, we'll need an additional earth. To have a happy EV-driving world, three more earths.

[careinke]

To address Boyle's points, in order to have sustained EV sales, there will have to be more home owners, etc. That means 7 out of 10 people worldwide will have to live on more than $10 daily, with the other three wanting them to do so because their own incomes and ROIs are dependent on sustained EV sales. That explains the press releases in this thread showing and then hoping for that.

In order for the seven to do so, we'll need an additional earth. To have a happy EV-driving world, three more earths.

Don't need an additional earth, just 5 time more energy, which could be done easily. Then we can fix all the other problems by fixing the soil.

Peace

[theluckycountry]

Some exciting video to take our minds off the EV market

https://insideevs.com/news/713585/tesla ... ier-bombi/

[mousepad]

just 5 time more energy, which could be done easily. Then we can fix all the other problems by fixing the soil.
Peace

what? I thought if all used bitcoin we had peace? And then you claimed if only kennedy came as a remedy? And now you're telling me we need 5x energy? Is that 5x to feed the bitcoin stuff?

I have a better idea: we need a lot less people, and those need to consume a lot less. That way we don't need 5x energy, we can get away with a lot less energy, easily suppliable with renewables What do you think?

LESS IS THE SOLUTION
Less people, less production, less consumption, less waste!

[careinke]

just 5 time more energy, which could be done easily. Then we can fix all the other problems by fixing the soil.
Peace

what? I thought if all used bitcoin we had peace? And then you claimed if only kennedy came as a remedy? And now you're telling me we need 5x energy? Is that 5x to feed the bitcoin stuff?

I have a better idea: we need a lot less people, and those need to consume a lot less. That way we don't need 5x energy, we can get away with a lot less energy, easily suppliable with renewables What do you think?

LESS IS THE SOLUTION
Less people, less production, less consumption, less waste!

So...mass suicide/murder is the answer? I'm thinking I won't be adopting your prescription, but feel free to lead the way.

Peace

[mousepad]

So...mass suicide/murder is the answer?

hahaha.
What about EMBRACING natural population decline instead of fighting for growth?

[ralfy]

To address Boyle's points, in order to have sustained EV sales, there will have to be more home owners, etc. That means 7 out of 10 people worldwide will have to live on more than $10 daily, with the other three wanting them to do so because their own incomes and ROIs are dependent on sustained EV sales. That explains the press releases in this thread showing and then hoping for that.

In order for the seven to do so, we'll need an additional earth. To have a happy EV-driving world, three more earths.

Don't need an additional earth, just 5 time more energy, which could be done easily. Then we can fix all the other problems by fixing the soil.

Peace

Additional earth in terms of energy and material resources. It has to do with the point that the first is also dependent on the second.

Humanity has been "fixing the soil" for decades. But that also involves the above.

[theluckycountry]

Some are working on the problem, Bill Gates for one.

[theluckycountry]

Since this thread is wandering it's probably time to move onto the next stage of the EV discussion, when, if ever, will the EV industry as a whole consolidate and sales resume some sort of normal activity. Yes it's true sales in some nations are still robust and increasing, but such is not the case in the first adopter nations, in the EU nations and Britain, the U.S. I think this is an important distinction, in essence everyone who wanted to 'try' an EV in the early adopter's has now, and demand has cratered.

I have always assumed there would be a small cadre or clique that would always prefer to own an EV but that the promised "Transition" was a total delusion. It was like saying everyone would transition to a Mercedes or a Audi, if you said that people would simply laugh. I also don't see adoption rates going any higher than the peak, I see them falling to perhaps 1% or so of cars on the road.

This thinking is hard to swallow for a true believer who still has the marketing propaganda ruling their rational processes. It's like the Bitcoin believers, they are hodling in the expectation $hitcoin will take off to the moon as it has done before but there is no evidence that will happen. What they cling to is a couple of past bull markets which they claim constitutes an infallible pattern for success, but this current uptick hasn't even exceeded the last top, not in inflation adjusted terms. I have heard all the false marketing for BC over the years, It's a currency, false, It goes up in times of economic turmoil, false.

It's just a modern invention like the EV and at the end of the day it's success is dependent on the will of the people. If people demand EV's they will do well. If people reject them, they will be the Segway. And as far as I can see the vast majority are rejecting them. Because they haven't experienced them? No. A lot of owners are saying they will never buy another. How many owners of gasoline powered cars ever said that? People arrive at an airport and go to pick up their rental and discover to their amazement that it's an EV. They didn't order an EV, they don't yet realize that in a few hours they will be stranded at a charging station with no app to 'refuel', or at best be stuck in a side-street for 3 hours waiting for the recharge.

It's the little things that killed the EV, that led to Hertz dumping tens of thousands of them on the second hand market. A market that for all intents and purposes no longer functions. It will take a year or two to clean this mess up, scrap all the unwanted EV and return to some sort of rational market based on true supply and demand rather than one driven by fear and government manipulation, by media persecution of gas powered cars.

[ralfy]

The key is figuring out how to sell it up to a tenth of the price in order to meet the demands of the global population. If that's not possible, then at best focus on mass and cargo transport.

[mousepad]

The key is figuring out how to sell it up to a tenth of the price in order to meet the demands of the global population.

I think it's even better to make most stuff out of reach for most. Keeps consumption low. A few rich folks can drive EV, the plebs should walk, bike, or take public transport.

[theluckycountry]

The key is figuring out how to sell it up to a tenth of the price in order to meet the demands of the global population.

I think it's even better to make most stuff out of reach for most. Keeps consumption low. A few rich folks can drive EV, the plebs should walk, bike, or take public transport.

Yes, I think that's a good plan for the cities.

[ralfy]

Only if you have socialist cities, which is what the rich want to avoid because the only way they can not only maintain their wealth but become even richer is to sell more EVs, which eventually means selling more to the same "plebs".

Welcome to capitalism.

[theluckycountry]

Hummer Reportedly Kills EV Base 2 Trim Level As Demand Cools

For GM guys and gals who were promised Hummer EVs with base trims and lower prices (starting around $79,995 and offer 250 miles of range), the report from GM Authority does not bode well for EV price affordability.

This also comes as GM delayed the launch of its Toledo EV Propulsion Systems plant in Ohio

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/hummer-reportedly-kills-ev-base-2-trim-level-demand-cools

Delay is the worst kind of denial they say, keeps you hanging on the edge of your seat. In this case though it will give prospective EV enthusiasts time to think. Never a good thing in sales promotion.

[mousepad]

Only if you have socialist cities, which is what the rich want to avoid because the only way they can not only maintain their wealth but become even richer is to sell more EVs, which eventually means selling more to the same "plebs".
Welcome to capitalism.

That stuff makes 0 sense, I don't even know what to answer.

[careinke]

So...mass suicide/murder is the answer?

hahaha.
What about EMBRACING natural population decline instead of fighting for growth?

OK, I'll agree with that, but we have to include Border controls, so each country works to solve their own problems. AI, robotics, Carbon reduction, BTC and other decentralized currency's will fix the rest.

Peace someday