[yellowcanoe]

This article claims that problems with electric vehicles are not actually related to the fact that they are electric. The fact is that many of these vehicles are new designs that have not yet had all the kinks worked out and that they tend to be high end vehicles with more sophisticated technology that presents more opportunities for things to go wrong. https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/04/business ... index.html

[theluckycountry]

That's in Amboy, California. I just drove by it. What a coincidence.

Cool. That shot reminds me of the Nullabour plain down south, 1000km, one road, one rail line. It's like being on Mars.

[theluckycountry]

This article claims that problems with electric vehicles are not actually related to the fact that they are electric. The fact is that many of these vehicles are new designs that have not yet had all the kinks worked out and that they tend to be high end vehicles with more sophisticated

Well I can't argue with that, it's been the case since the beginning. The Nissan Leaf was not in that category, being more compact and thrifty, and no one wanted it. Tesla comes out with a high powered roaster and the wealthy lap it up. They have been marketed as luxury cars and that's at odds with the stated aim or saving the planet through conservation of resources.

[theluckycountry]

Zero Public EV Chargers Built Since Congress Approved $7.5 Billion To Expand Network

This is why you believe nothing that comes out of the mouth of a politician. If you want to listen to them, and I never do, then you might use them as a contrary indicator. In this case when they say they are going to build a shit ton of chargers you can bet the EV era is winding down and it's time sell your stocks in it.

President Joe Biden's 2021 infrastructure bill boasts a $7.5 billion investment in electric vehicle (EV) chargers, and his administration insists the country is "on track" to install over a million public chargers by the end of the decade—but reports indicate that so far not a single one has actually been built. ...despite more than $2 billion of the $7.5 billion in federal EV charger funding already authorized under the programs, not even half of states have started to take bids from contractors for construction...

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/ze ... nd-network

Sell EV stocks? The Tesla all time peak was November 2021, the same month the President's bill was signed.

October 2023 The electric vehicle (EV) industry - which until recently looked like a promising investing theme as investors poured billions into startup companies, hoping to find the next multi-bagger - is now looking like a busted story. Many EV stocks, such as Arrival, Vinfast, and Lucid Motors are trading near all-time lows, while last week was the worst for Tesla (TSLA) stock so far in 2023

What’s the Outlook for EV Stocks?

The near-term outlook for EV stocks is looking hazy amid worsening macros, rising competition, and the continuing price war. However, the industry still holds promise in the long term, as the transition to zero-emission cars looks inevitable -

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/4-reaso ... elling-off

So the industry still holds promise, why? Because the transition to 100% electric looks inevitable. Why? Because politicians and corps making EV's said so. But we all know that's BS. We're at 1% EV now and straining the Grids, straining the metals industry to supply cobalt and nickle and Lithium. And then the enormous cost of transition, at a point in history where the global debt mountain is poised to collapse.

No cheap energy! That's the problem now and going forward. Post WWII, Saudi Arabia wasn't even on-stream, we had oceans of cheap oil. Post the coming collapse there will be nothing but dregs and uneconomic fossil fuel plays. I fear the world's stock markets are in for a real gut punch that will make the GFC look like a dip. Remember the Global Financial Collapse (GFC) ? If not it's because you live in the states and there it was called the great recession. Stocks collapsed 50% and more but the dead wood wasn't allowed to be cleared. Instead the markets were reflated with a mountain of debt unheard of in monetary history.





Do you know why they call it a debt "Pyramid"?

[Pops]

As I read it, per the act, initially chargers could use more than 55% of foreign parts. Then next year the Buy American standard would have kicked in. That would have meant a fast start.
Republicans rejected that.
So you can complain that none have been built so far
Or you can complain that they are made in China.
but you can't complain about both.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 023-11-08/

[theluckycountry]

As a contractor and one who employed contractors from numerous trades I as well versed in the BS excuses they give when doing the job they agreed on becomes unfeasible. Either due to time constraints, financial reasons, or simply because it's too hard and money is easily made elsewhere. Telling a sweet lie in such cases is often much better than telling the honest truth. The client is not offended and they won't try and wriggle around the decision you have made.

For a political party to come out with a grandiose scheme that jibes with the common desire of the electorate, and then create their own roadblocks later on to renege on it is a lot easier than saying "We screwed up". When the politicians all began pushing this change to electric cars the public was mostly onboard, it was the solution to peakoil for personal travel after all, and techy-cool into the bargain. Then reality caught up, the public said no, and now across the globe governments are backpedaling on incentives and mandates.

Why people insist that "their politician" would never lie but the opposition Always lies is quite an interesting phenomena. It has a religious element to it almost, We of the true faith...

[kublikhan]

Zero Public EV Chargers Built Since Congress Approved $7.5 Billion To Expand Network

This is why you believe nothing that comes out of the mouth of a politician. If you want to listen to them, and I never do, then you might use them as a contrary indicator. In this case when they say they are going to build a shit ton of chargers you can bet the EV era is winding down and it's time sell your stocks in it.

Even back in 2021 when the infrastructure bill was passed, it was known it would take years to get these projects up to speed. This is not an indication of "The Era of EVs is winding down". This is just the usual slow as molasses government bureaucracy at work.

November 9, 2021 - It may be years before Americans are driving over new bridges or plugging their electric vehicles into a new highway charger funded by President Joe Biden’s infrastructure package.

Grant programs will take more time
The timing is unclear for the more than $100 billion that will be allocated through competitive grant programs. The Department of Transportation will have to set the criteria, then solicit and review applications from state and local governments before announcing the awards. “The competitive grants will probably be the slowest to come out,” said Susan Howard, program director of transportation finance at the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials. “It will be a real heavy lift for DOT to get this level of discretionary funding out the door,” she added.

Economic impact
The investments are likely to have more of a long-term impact on job creation than an immediate boom since the labor market is already tight. “Infrastructure spending has a bigger effect on jobs when we’re in an economic recession,” said Jon Huntley, senior economist for the Penn Wharton Budget Model. “The benefits of infrastructure spending take a while, but are very, very long lasting,” he added.

Over the long run, the improved highways and bridges, as well as the investment in a stronger broadband network, could make workers more efficient and smooth out friction points in the supply chain. A Moody’s Analytics report found that the infrastructure spending will create more than 800,000 jobs by the middle of the decade.

Huntley noted that he doesn’t expect the spending package to increase inflation because of the time it will take for the money to be released.

Here’s how long it may take Biden’s infrastructure package to jolt the economy

[Pops]

Why people insist that "their politician" would never lie but the opposition Always lies is quite an interesting phenomena. It has a religious element to it almost, We of the true faith...

Considering trump held official "Infrastructure Weeks" at least a dozen times over 4 years yet passed 0 legislation I think it is fair to say that Ds made more progress.

Rs concentrate on important messages like "I'll put the "Christmas" back in Christmas." And their constituents wonder why their butts hurt and their pockets are empty.

The free market does amazing things, when there is profit in it. I don't care whose politicians are doing the talking, if there is no profit, the market will look the other way. Government's job is... well, see my sig.

[theluckycountry]

Ford may have scrapped it's 12 Billion plan to build EV's but it's not over yet for the maker. Behind the scenes a quiet revolution is taking place, the marriage of the Gasoline engine and the electric motor is a winner sales wise. The advantages of these over a straight Gas powered truck are nominal and come at the expense of a lot more complexity, but people still want to be "green", and this is one way of achieving that while having the reliability aspects of a petrol car.

2024 Ford F 150
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPsgvkbMDj4

[kublikhan]

They buy them to look eco, or the salesman sells them on the "Green" economy aspects, though no one would buy them if they weren't only 4 or 5 grand over the conventional ICE versions. Like the Toyota corolla hybrid, they are all 100% gas powered but with the gutless Atkinson engine they get the extra mileage and the buyers think it's because the car is partly electric powered. Imagine buying a new car and not even understanding how it works? Not even doing the most basic research on youtube? The world is full of such people, it's no wonder there are so many successful scams out there.

The reason hybrids can get by with an underpowered Atkinson engine is because they can make up for the missing power with an electric motor. You are only getting half the picture by talking about the undersized gasoline engine. The other half of the picture is the electric motor adding power. Plus each power plant(ICE or electric) can apply power when it is most efficient for them to do so. That's how hybrids get great mpg and still have decent power.

Gasoline motors are most efficient at full power, and dramatically less efficient at 10% power.

A gasoline engine as the sole power source needs to be powerful enough to accelerate and climb hills (perhaps 100hp), and so most of the time is using only a small fraction of full power (10–20hp), and thus is operating at quite low efficiency.

The engine in a hybrid car is undersized (perhaps 50hp), since you can add the power from the electric motor for acceleration and hills. Thus when cruising at steady speed on the flat, a majority of the time, it is operating closer to rated full power, so is considerably more efficient. And when charging the battery in addition to moving the car, the smaller engine is operating at even higher power, and so is still more efficient.

And, as others have noted, you can recover energy from regenerative braking when slowing or descending hills, to recharge the battery, while a gasoline engine only has no such capability.

The smaller engine also weighs less, which means that everything around it can be smaller and lighter too. This is partly offset by the weight of the electric subsystems (and if the battery is large, that may more than make up for the lighter engine). Still on balance, the hybrid could be considerably more efficient than gasoline only.

How do hybrid cars get better gas mileage when they burn gas in a gasoline engine to power electric motors?

Ford may have scrapped it's 12 Billion plan to build EV's but it's not over yet for the maker.

Ford is not scrapping it's plan to build EVs. It is reducing the amount of money it is spending on EVs. They are constantly fiddling with the amount of money they want to invest in their EV unit. Back in 2021 it was $30 billion. In 2022 they upped it to $50 billion. This year they decreased that by $12 billion. Yes it's a reduction from earlier plans, but we are still talking about them spending tens of billions of dollars on EV investments.

May 26, 2021 - Ford Motor said on Wednesday that it would increase spending on electric vehicles by about a third from its previous plans. The company intends to spend $30 billion in the five years ending in 2025, up from the previous target of $22 billion.

Ford will spend $30 billion on electric vehicles, a big increase from earlier plans

March 2, 2022 - Ford Motor Co (F.N) said on Wednesday it will boost spending on electric vehicles to $50 billion, up from the previous $30 billion, through 2026 and run its EV unit separately from its legacy combustion engine business.

Ford boosts EV spending to $50 billion, sets up new Model e unit

OCT 26 2023 - Ford executives emphasized that the company isn’t cutting back its spending on future electric vehicle models. But it now plans to ramp up its EV manufacturing capacity, and its spending on that capacity, more gradually than previously planned.

“We’re not moving away from our second generation [EV] products,” CFO John Lawler said in a media briefing Thursday. “We are, though, looking at the pace of capacity that we’re putting in place. We are going to push out some of that investment.”

Lawler said that Ford will postpone about $12 billion in planned spending on manufacturing capacity for EVs, including a planned second battery plant at a new campus in Kentucky. But, he noted, construction of Blue Oval City – Ford’s new EV manufacturing campus in Tennessee – will continue as originally planned.

“The customer is going to decide what the volumes are,” Lawler said. “Ford is able to balance production of gas, hybrid and electric vehicles to match the speed of EV adoption in a way that others can’t.”

Ford will postpone about $12 billion in EV investment as buyers become more cautious

The advantages of these over a straight Gas powered truck are nominal and come at the expense of a lot more complexity, but people still want to be "green", and this is one way of achieving that while having the reliability aspects of a petrol car.

The advantages of hybrids over ICE are not nominal. For less than $1400 more, I can boost the mpg by over 40%. A 40% increase in fuel economy is NOT 'nominal'.

2023 Toyota Corolla Hybrid
EPA Fuel Economy: 50 mpg combined
MSRP: $23,050

2023 Toyota Corolla
EPA Fuel Economy: 35 mpg combined
MSRP: $21,700

[ralfy]

If they can do the same for less than $10,000, then they're on to something.

[careinke]

Why people insist that "their politician" would never lie but the opposition Always lies is quite an interesting phenomena. It has a religious element to it almost, We of the true faith...

Considering trump held official "Infrastructure Weeks" at least a dozen times over 4 years yet passed 0 legislation I think it is fair to say that Ds made more progress.

Rs concentrate on important messages like "I'll put the "Christmas" back in Christmas." And their constituents wonder why their butts hurt and their pockets are empty.

The free market does amazing things, when there is profit in it. I don't care whose politicians are doing the talking, if there is no profit, the market will look the other way. Government's job is... well, see my sig.

You prove Lucky's case.

Peace

[theluckycountry]

Thank you careinki. It doesn't matter what politicians say or don't say, all that matters is what comes to pass, and aside from endless wars and endless hoards flooding across the border, very little has come to pass of late.

Simple little clichés (a phrase or opinion that is overused and betrays a lack of original thought:)

"Are You Better Off Than You Were Four Years Ago?" 1980 Ronald Reagan
"Let's Make America Great Again" – 1980 Ronald Reagan
"It's Morning Again in America" – 1984 Ronald Reagan

"Read My Lips, No New Taxes" – George H. W. Bush

"It's Time to Change America" 1992 Bill Clinton
"Building a bridge to the twenty-first century" 1996 – Bill Clinton

"Change We Can Believe In." – 2008 Barack Obama
"Middle Class First" - 2012 Barack Obama.

"Make America Great Again!" Donald Trump

"Build Back Better" – Joe Biden
"Our best days still lie ahead" Biden

How could a thinking person honestly believe any of that tripe?

[Pops]

You prove Lucky's case.

I cited reality.

[theluckycountry]

Just turn the TV set off and go live the life you dreamed of when you were young.

[theluckycountry]

You prove Lucky's case.

I cited reality.

Here is the construction data chart from your source, it's a linear slope since 2011 with a slight bump middle 2023


https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TTLCONS

So where is all this US manufacturing spending going? Am I led to believe they are stockpiling hundreds of billions worth of materials somewhere? Or perhaps these figures reflect "orders" not as yet filled. Even factoring in price inflation ( Since September 2023, US base prices for steel have risen by almost 47%.) the disconnect between the construction spending and the manufacturing spending seems out of line. I have read several stories about this "Boom" but lacking in all of them is what's been built? I don't see anything having been built, certainly not on the order claimed.

I think this is all just another shell game by a government facing an election. Money allocated but not spent, all of which can reversed later at no cost.

What the market (not the Fed) is saying

U.S. manufacturing PMI contracts for 13 straight months amid slowing economy

MNA International December 2, 2023
Economic activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in November for the 13th month in a row, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said Friday.

The U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 46.7 percent in November, unchanged from the figure recorded in October. Any reading below 50 percent indicates the manufacturing sector is generally contracting. “Companies are still managing outputs appropriately as order softness continues,” Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM’s manufacturing business survey committee, said in a statement, noting that demand eased

https://www.macaubusiness.com/u-s-manuf ... g-economy/

US manufacturing mired in weakness, economy heading for slowdown https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-m ... 023-12-01/

[Pops]

Your chart is total construction.
This chart is construction spending : manufacturing
i.e. factories

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TLMFGCONS

[kublikhan]

So where is all this US manufacturing spending going? Am I led to believe they are stockpiling hundreds of billions worth of materials somewhere? Or perhaps these figures reflect "orders" not as yet filled. Even factoring in price inflation ( Since September 2023, US base prices for steel have risen by almost 47%.) the disconnect between the construction spending and the manufacturing spending seems out of line. I have read several stories about this "Boom" but lacking in all of them is what's been built? I don't see anything having been built, certainly not on the order claimed.

Semiconductor fabs mostly. Lots of new fabs going up in the US & Europe. Traditionally, most fabs have been built in Asia. Intel, AMD, Samsung, TSMC, etc are all building new fabs in the US & Europe.

In the last year, a number of companies have announced new semiconductor fabrication sites being built in the US and Europe. These announcements mark a shift in where fabrication has typically taken place–and highlight growing concerns around the geopolitical risk overseas semiconductor fabs carry.

Why Semiconductor Fabrication Sites Are Being Built in the West
In 2021, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States faced a sudden and catastrophic shortage of semiconductors. This shortage negatively affected dozens of major industries, including automakers, consumer electronics, renewable energies, and home appliances. The financial repercussions were immense: according to the US Department of Commerce, the shortage stunted US economic growth by somewhere in the range of a quarter-trillion dollars for that year.

Beyond the financial consequences, the chip shortage laid bare just how dependent many US industries had become on semiconductors produced in Asia. The pandemic served as a sharp jolt, even a rude awakening. The nation’s sprawling dependence on semiconductors produced in Asia left the economy vulnerable in the face of unforeseeable events.

It was this financial fallout that led to the creation of the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors and Science Act (otherwise known as the CHIPS Act). Signed into law on August 9, 2022, the CHIPS and Science Act directs nearly $53 billion to “American semiconductor research, development, manufacturing, and workforce development,” as a White House press release explained at the time.

In April of 2023, the European Union announced a similar plan. The European Chips Act earmarks 43 billion euros (around $47 billion) for building up the semiconductor industry in the 27 member states, with the express aim of doubling their global market share from 10% to 20% by 2030.

Where Are All the New Semiconductor Fabs in North America & Europe?

* The boom is principally driven by construction for computer, electronic, and electrical manufacturing—a relatively small share of manufacturing construction over the past few decades, but now a dominant component.

* Manufacturing construction is one element of a broader increase in U.S. non-residential construction spending, alongside new building for public and private infrastructure following the IIJA. The manufacturing surge has not crowded out other types of construction spending, which generally continue to strengthen.

DECOMPOSING THE SURGE
Within real construction spending on manufacturing, most of the growth has been driven by computer, electronics, and electrical manufacturing. Since the beginning of 2022, real spending on construction for that specific type of manufacturing has nearly quadrupled (Figure 2).

The adjustment for price increases is particularly important here. Construction costs have risen quickly in recent years, and therefore nominal spending growth should not be misconstrued as increased physical construction. But by considering deflated measures as we do here, it is clear that the surge is a real one (see Appendix for a more detailed discussion of our choice of deflator).

Today, the computer/electronic segment is the dominant component of U.S. manufacturing construction. Importantly, the boom in this segment has not been offset by reduced spending on other manufacturing construction segments, which are largely consistent with long-term levels (Figure 3). In fact, construction for chemical, transportation, and food/beverage manufacturing is also up from 2022, albeit much less than the computer/electronic sector.

This rise in the spending began in the months before the CHIPS Act passed, as many factors beyond policy contribute to construction spending. Still, the legislation has played a critical part in continuing and expanding this trend. In particular, private sector analysts have recognized the connection between the growth in construction for electronics manufacturing and the CHIPS Act. Bank of America notes this rise came “potentially on the back of ongoing construction of semiconductor factories as part of the CHIPS Act.” According to Deutsche Bank Research, 18 new chipmaking facilities will have started construction between 2021 and 2023. The Semiconductor Industry Association reports that over 50 new semiconductor ecosystem projects have been announced in the wake of the CHIPS Act.

Unpacking the Boom in U.S. Construction of Manufacturing Facilities

[Pops]

Kudos for looking for actual data tho.

I've made my living from slogans and propaganda. I'm well aware from where they come. The slogan "they're all the same" for example is likely the best ever created by those who have power. It allows the user to avoid defending their gut-level choice while imbuing a pleasing pretense of world weary wisdom. And all without the effort, and possible vote influence, of self-education. Kind of Dunning-Kruger in a fast-acting blue pill.

All humans lie a little and politicians are salesmen so they all lie a more. Some merely give a rosy tint to their promises while some lie tirelessly as if to dare you to believe your lyin' eyes.

I believe rather than pretend to jaded wisdom, one should try to educate themself. Whatever data one can find is better than allowing your emotions to be plucked like a cheap guitar. The more you find your strings plucked, the more caution you should employ.

My knee-jerk is typically to the left, I can't help that. And many time politicians disappoint me. Not nearly as bad as I can see the typical "Family Values" R who goes to congress to lower the top tax rates and undercut regulation meant to help and protect the average joe would disappoint said Joe. I can see why Joe is bitter.

[theluckycountry]

Your chart is total construction.
This chart is construction spending : manufacturing
i.e. factories

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TLMFGCONS

Ok, My bad.