Xenophobe wrote:How many new Saudi Arabia's have we discovered since 1985? Must be at least a couple, eh?
Isn't it mostly "reserve growth", not discovery, i.e. there is a lot more oil economically recoverable at $80/bl than at 1981 prices ?
Xenophobe wrote:How many new Saudi Arabia's have we discovered since 1985? Must be at least a couple, eh?
Keith_McClary wrote:Xenophobe wrote:How many new Saudi Arabia's have we discovered since 1985? Must be at least a couple, eh?
Isn't it mostly "reserve growth", not discovery, i.e. there is a lot more oil economically recoverable at $80/bl than at 1981 prices ?
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is reporting a new monthly peak in crude oil and lease condensates for January 2011 at 75.282 million barrels per day. This is 600,000 barrels more than July, 2008 (74.669 million barrels per day).
The IEA had reported a new peak in world oil supply (that includes other fuel liquids at 89 million barrels per day in February 2011)
These are important for the whole peak oil argument. World oil production is still slowly moving up. It is not declining yet. Claims of peak oil having already occurred in 2008 or 2005 are wrong. Even with Libyan oil production out, there could still be new highs in world oil production.
If world oil production keeps going up slowly to 2018-2025 then so what ?
It means more time for improved biofuels to be created. Algae biofuel or other kinds of synthetic fuel.
The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report and IEA Oil Market Report both came out on Tuesday last week and allowed us to see how events in the Middle East are starting to play out in global oil production statistics.
Note that the rise that's been going in since last fall has now been abruptly interrupted by the Libyan situation, and total oil production has fallen by about 0.5mbd. This is about 0.6% of global production, but given that the world economy has been growing rapidly and needing about another 0.5mbd/month, the shortfall over what would have happened in a counterfactual world with no Middle Eastern unrest is more like 1.2% of global production.
In terms of the price production picture, this has put us much more into territory akin to the 2005-2008 oil shock:
Graeme wrote:EIA reports a new peak in crude oil at 75.282 million barrels per dayThe US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is reporting a new monthly peak in crude oil and lease condensates for January 2011 at 75.282 million barrels per day. This is 600,000 barrels more than July, 2008 (74.669 million barrels per day).
The IEA had reported a new peak in world oil supply (that includes other fuel liquids at 89 million barrels per day in February 2011)
These are important for the whole peak oil argument. World oil production is still slowly moving up. It is not declining yet. Claims of peak oil having already occurred in 2008 or 2005 are wrong. Even with Libyan oil production out, there could still be new highs in world oil production.
If world oil production keeps going up slowly to 2018-2025 then so what ?
It means more time for improved biofuels to be created. Algae biofuel or other kinds of synthetic fuel.
nextbigfuture
pstarr wrote:Curious? How do you reconcile that with this:Pops wrote:change Jan 2011 - July 2008, In thousands of barrels a day:
.
US +350
.
meemoe_uk wrote:>Curious? How do you reconcile that with this:
Probably by dismissing a lot of current US production as non conventional.
Otherwise, by that graph, and the latest EIA figures, the US has pretty much set a new oil peak in the last few months, so 1970-1971 may lose it's title to 2010-2011 as US peak oil at the current rate.
Pops wrote:I don't get the rigidity around the whole peak "thing" - why is it so hard to believe a 7-800% increase in price could squeeze out a little extra oil when the going price had been barely above lifting costs for 20 years?
eastbay wrote:I'll try this question because it's an easy one:
Pops wrote:eastbay wrote:I'll try this question because it's an easy one:
Oh please, you're gonna lecture me on peak oil?
eastbay wrote:I have a strong hunch some of that February oil 'production' so gloated about
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