[Keith_McClary]

How many new Saudi Arabia's have we discovered since 1985? Must be at least a couple, eh?

Isn't it mostly "reserve growth", not discovery, i.e. there is a lot more oil economically recoverable at $80/bl than at 1981 prices ?

[Xenophobe]

How many new Saudi Arabia's have we discovered since 1985? Must be at least a couple, eh?

Isn't it mostly "reserve growth", not discovery, i.e. there is a lot more oil economically recoverable at $80/bl than at 1981 prices ?

Darned if I know, but whatever it is, I hope it keeps pouring it on! Wife wants an Armada, I want a Volt. Tough call....

[Graeme]

EIA reports a new peak in crude oil at 75.282 million barrels per day

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is reporting a new monthly peak in crude oil and lease condensates for January 2011 at 75.282 million barrels per day. This is 600,000 barrels more than July, 2008 (74.669 million barrels per day).

The IEA had reported a new peak in world oil supply (that includes other fuel liquids at 89 million barrels per day in February 2011)

These are important for the whole peak oil argument. World oil production is still slowly moving up. It is not declining yet. Claims of peak oil having already occurred in 2008 or 2005 are wrong. Even with Libyan oil production out, there could still be new highs in world oil production.

If world oil production keeps going up slowly to 2018-2025 then so what ?

It means more time for improved biofuels to be created. Algae biofuel or other kinds of synthetic fuel.

nextbigfuture

[AirlinePilot]

When did Libyan production get taken off the table??

[Graeme]

Saudi Arabia Has Not Made up for the Drop in Libyan Oil Production

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report and IEA Oil Market Report both came out on Tuesday last week and allowed us to see how events in the Middle East are starting to play out in global oil production statistics.



Note that the rise that's been going in since last fall has now been abruptly interrupted by the Libyan situation, and total oil production has fallen by about 0.5mbd. This is about 0.6% of global production, but given that the world economy has been growing rapidly and needing about another 0.5mbd/month, the shortfall over what would have happened in a counterfactual world with no Middle Eastern unrest is more like 1.2% of global production.
In terms of the price production picture, this has put us much more into territory akin to the 2005-2008 oil shock:

oilprice

[vision-master]

EIA reports a new peak in crude oil at 75.282 million barrels per day

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is reporting a new monthly peak in crude oil and lease condensates for January 2011 at 75.282 million barrels per day. This is 600,000 barrels more than July, 2008 (74.669 million barrels per day).

The IEA had reported a new peak in world oil supply (that includes other fuel liquids at 89 million barrels per day in February 2011)

These are important for the whole peak oil argument. World oil production is still slowly moving up. It is not declining yet. Claims of peak oil having already occurred in 2008 or 2005 are wrong. Even with Libyan oil production out, there could still be new highs in world oil production.

If world oil production keeps going up slowly to 2018-2025 then so what ?

It means more time for improved biofuels to be created. Algae biofuel or other kinds of synthetic fuel.

nextbigfuture

The key to this trick article is 'lease condensates'

'Lease' condensate - this is a mixture of mainly pentane and those heavier hydrocarbons that condense out to a liquid at normal pressure and temperature which is recovered from the natural gas in the lease operators separation facilities near by the gas field.

[Graeme]

According to EIA data, lease condensate production has not been increasing - reserves have though.

[TheDude]

That's for the US, the reserve growth is a byproduct of shale gas drilling.

For the globe you'd go to the IEA for their crude-only data and subtract the diff from their C+C numbers. Might test this later.

[Pops]

I thought it would be interesting to see who were the big gainers and big losers - over 100,000b/d change Jan 2011 - July 2008, In thousands of barrels a day:

Nigeria +470
Russia +425
China +387
US +350
Kazakhstan +350
Brazil +297
Qatar +288
Columbia +252
Canada +199
India +155
Oman +128
Iraq +120
Big Gainers 3,421

KSA -560
Norway -397
Kuwait -264
Angola -219
UAE -195
Mexico -194
Venezuela -150
Austrailia -144
Indonesia -119
Big losers 2,242

[meemoe_uk]

>Curious? How do you reconcile that with this:
Probably by dismissing a lot of current US production as non conventional.
Otherwise, by that graph, and the latest EIA figures, the US has pretty much set a new oil peak in the last few months, so 1970-1971 may lose it's title to 2010-2011 as US peak oil at the current rate.
Peakers and doomers would never stand for that. So expect this site to be pushing the non conventional oil meme whenever the new US peak is debated.

[Pops]

change Jan 2011 - July 2008, In thousands of barrels a day:
.
US +350
.

Curious? How do you reconcile that with this:

Well, I don't think it takes much reconciling, look at that low point on your graph at "08" and look at the higher point on your graph at "10"- seems to be pretty similar to the numbers from EIA:

July '08 5132.677
Jan '11 5482.548

Pretty close to +350kb/d, no?

I don't get the rigidity around the whole peak "thing" - why is it so hard to believe a 7-800% increase in price could squeeze out a little extra oil when the going price had been barely above lifting costs for 20 years?

[TheDude]

>Curious? How do you reconcile that with this:
Probably by dismissing a lot of current US production as non conventional.
Otherwise, by that graph, and the latest EIA figures, the US has pretty much set a new oil peak in the last few months, so 1970-1971 may lose it's title to 2010-2011 as US peak oil at the current rate.

Huh? Do you have a tar sands operation in your garage that's cranking out 5 mb/d or something? Is your monitor on its side? Did we annex Canada this morning? Even ethanol only adds ca. 900 kb/d at nameplate. Where's this 4 mb/d we're missing?

[eastbay]

I don't get the rigidity around the whole peak "thing" - why is it so hard to believe a 7-800% increase in price could squeeze out a little extra oil when the going price had been barely above lifting costs for 20 years?

I'll try this question because it's an easy one:

Maybe it's because another seven or eight fold increase in p/bbl price to around $1,000/bbl will utterly and completely destroy the worlds economy thereby rendering moot the need for any oil production whatsoever.

In fact, we'll probably see what another doubling in price to $250/bbl will do, and one thing it absolutely, positively won't do is result in more oil production with the accompanying resultant demand destruction.

[Pops]

I'll try this question because it's an easy one:

Oh please, you're gonna lecture me on peak oil?

By "peak" I thought I was fairly plain, this fixation that everything is Hubbert or it's nothing, i.e. a nice smooth rise to a peak and a nice smooth decline. Peak oil was 2008 it's just gotta be!!

This new monthly peak tweaks exactly the same nerve. Just like Ps reaction to the possibility of speculation adding to the oil price. Instead of seeing that it isn't an argument against peak cheap oil, that in fact it only adds validity to the idea, he'll stick his fingers in his ears and continue hollering that peak was in 2005 because somehow in his mind, the very thought of speculation affecting prices diminishes the idea of peak oil.

So,
Production in the late 80's - 90's was barely profitable after the shocks of the 70' caused a drilling boom -
Subsequently exploration and development languished due to low prices-
Since 99 the price has steadily increased -
Previously unprofitable oil is now available.
After increasing production capability and a fast drop in demand in '08, in '11 there is enough slack to make another peak with oil prices at close to a adjusted high.

Does any of that indicate to you that I think oil supply will continue to increase forever?
That I think demand creates oil?
That I think the economy can operate as usual on expensive energy?

No?


So I'll ask again, and you can address any part you want, or not: why is it surprising a 7-800% increase in price would bring a few hundred k/b/d of oil to market when the going price had been barely above lifting costs for 20 years?

[eastbay]

I'll try this question because it's an easy one:

Oh please, you're gonna lecture me on peak oil?

Yup. Someone around here definitely would after you posted that. So I did. We can all learn from each other.

[eastbay]

http://www.aolnews.com/2011/04/26/obama ... k3%7C58735

If the world is producing so much oil, then why is the centerpiece of Obama's liquid energy plan feature the embarrassing spectacle of him begging and pleading with OPEC to pump even more?

I have a strong hunch some of that February oil 'production' so gloated about included a bit of tapping Saudi reserves, which has been suggested here and there.

[meemoe_uk]

>uh? Do you have a tar sands operation in your garage that's cranking out 5 mb/d or something? Is your monitor on its side? Did we annex Canada this morning? Even ethanol only adds ca. 900 kb/d at nameplate. Where's this 4 mb/d we're missing?
It's the US total home grown oil supply of course ( EIA table )
Lot's of non-conventionals there.
Oct 2010 9.783Mbpd
Nov 2010 9.915Mbpd
Dec 2010 10.037Mbpd
Jan 2011 9.709Mbpd
What was US peak in 1970-71? About 10Mbpd? Anyone got source?
The point is though, the 1907-71 peak probably had it's fair share of non-cons, but oh no, you never hear anything about that on PO. Peakers just conveniently assume it was 100% conventional. Whereas now, they'll take the crappiest excuse to dismiss some 2010-11 supply as non-con.

[Pops]

I have a strong hunch some of that February oil 'production' so gloated about

I guess that's the thing that irks me, the playing at internet headline one-upsmanship: Peak Oil - The Game. So instead of talking about the actual numbers or how they relate to the current situation or the future, it's about which side is "Winning".

[TheDude]

Ah, hadn't realized we were producing that much pentanes plus and ethane. Absolute peak of US C+C was 10044 kb/d C+C in Nov 1970, down to 5,482 kb/d in January of this year. Your protestations here are pretty funny, these definitions exist for a reason. You're comparing apples and oranges all the way. Of course we produced NGLs back then; I have numbers for the world as a whole back through the 70s, and they have steadily increased as a % of the total all liquids number. Would be interesting to see what's going on with the US.