[larrydallas]

My dad's former employer is sort of a family friend so we have kept in touch ever since my dad retired and stays home all day watching corporate media and doing crazy things like saying he hates the way his neighbor parks his car.

Anyway, the guy that used to be his boss works as a petrolium engineer in a major global oil company. I don't want to get too specific here incase someone who knows about this is on the boards and it gets back to him cause he told us in confidence. Anyway, this guy has been at this compnay for over 30 years. He started out in England then spent many years in the middle east on projects. He was stationed in the states about 6 years ago and from time to time he was sent all over the world to work on projects.

In other words, he is not like a recent college grad. hired on. The compnay gave him the VIP treatment and put him up in $500 per night hotels in foreign countires.

So anyway, he calls today and asks me about how my career change is going. Vets of the board know that I've been thinking of getting into the rail road industry. I didn't mention this to him cause I didn't want to just shatter his world by telling him he will be unemployed once demad outstrips supply and prices rise so high that product does not move. I just kind of said that I was looking at many things and sending apps. to everything cause I was looking to make a new start in my life.

Then he tells me about what is going on at his place. He's really worried about his job. According to him they are sending people home after lunch because they do not have anything to do. I don't know exactly what he does as a petrolium engineer but I would guess he designs extraction methods, calculates many things, and gets with geologists to decide where to explore. Anyway, he says for about a month he and his co-workers have been going home early.

This really came as a surprise to me consider oil was $11 in 1999 and is now $55 without a major economic meltdown; yet.

You would think his company is making 5 times as much money ona gross scale but factor in more expenses for them as well but surely they are making more money than they did in 1999. I figured the oil industry would not decline until price got so high that the volume of sale would drop to where the business would not be profitable. Until that point was crossed the profits would just go up for them; or so I thought.

Anyway, he kind of hinted that he would like to be involved in a self run business and have a plan B if they did ask him to retire early. I also got the impression that he wants me to be part of this venture.

Hmmmm......it's not even close to occuring so at this point I'm just playing with ideas but the question here is what type of business would be wise to go into at this point? I thought about rail for months but I'd rather be my own boss in a partnership that work for someone else.

We would have a good chunk of start up funds to work with but it can't be some off the wall idea like buying paintings and hoping the artist cuts his ears off and is a legend in the future.

I was thinking about waiting until the housing bubble pops and buying property for perhaps pennies on the dollar when banks foreclose on people and are eager to move them because the panic induced by such a pop would have people making runs on the banks and the days of lazily keeping forclosed property on the market for a long time would be gone.

Things always happend in cycles so the housing market will make a comeback even if it is modest. I'm thinking about buying smaller homes (cheaper utilities) like under 1500 square feet in middle and working class areas if we decide to do this.

One of his friends made a killing buying up lots of acres near where a suburban development was being built in 1996. The guy held on to the land for 3 years and sold it for a 300% profit because the suburban sprawl was so fast the developers were willing to pay wahtever it cost to get their hands on the land.

This guy was thinking about doing that but I think I'll ask him to view the end of Suburbia DVD for $20 bucks before making a quarter milion dollar + mistake.

[chris-h]

You could start a business that would insulate houses.

Just my 2 cents

[Jack]

Good idea. You could also buy properties, rent them, then borrow against them (risky, true - leverage can bite one). Especially if you had some crews that could quickly and inexpensively refurbish a property, I think you could make a bunch of money and have some fun doing it.

Another possibility - the "rent to purchase" business. Returns can be very high - people with impaired credit rent things like big screen televisions. If they miss payments, the law is very much on the businesses' side. If they make the payments they get to keep the item, but the returns are equivalent to interest rates of 150% per annum or so. (No, that's not a typo - pawn shops get rates of between 180% and 360% per year).

Good luck!

[Peak_Plus]

Look, real estate is going to crash. This is going to take the developed world down with it. Speculate against the Dollar, speculate against stocks. Be very conservative about it because you might want to continue speculating once it gets in your blood. If you want a perspective, however:

http://www.seawaterforests.org/. Raise money for them or get involved with them some other way...

[Jack]

You say that real estate will crash. Some of it will, certainly - but all of it?

People need a place to live. During the 1929 depression, unemployment was (supposedly) 25% - but that implies that lots of people had jobs of one sort or another. So it seems that one could make money for a decade or more with low-end residential properties.

[Peak_Plus]

Just like in the upside, as some prices skyrocketted and some rose slightly, some objects will certainly hold much of their price. Once the bubble bursts, which will be very very soon, you can try to buy at the bottom of the market, but your project should not depend on buying at the bottom of the market. Leave a lot of room for error. Peaks and troughs can almost never be caught.

[larrydallas]

I am planning on buying a house for myself when the bubble pops and we are at possibly the lowest point ever during my lifetime. I'm single and I don't need the space but I doubt an opportunity like this will ever occur again.

I'm not looking for something big....just perhaps around 1800 square feet with a 2 car garage. My family lives in town and there are currently 2 homes for sale next door to them on one side. If both houses can be had for under $100K I will try my hardest to grab them while the going is good.

We all want to move away as far as possible cause they will drive you nuts but I think in the post peak world living in proximity will be an asset. I was toying with the idea of having 3 homes in the family all next to e/o and tearing down the fences in between to get some type of domestic crop production. I want to learn this before it is perhaps a requirement to go on.


No matter what occurs people will stil need a place to live and I would think apartments will be a bad place to stay because people will be robbing e/o left and right. With a house robbery is less likely because it's harder to know who lives there and their schedule. Even if the fiat money system is gone holding property will still fetch you whatever we use in the future in place of the current money. Land and improvements on it ar ethe only 2 things which I think are sure fire no risk investments if they don't build a dump nearby in the future. Even gold is "tisky" compared to this.

[Guest]

The economic decline has started I think

In 1999, I e-mailed some friends a forecast that, as from Winter 2000-2001, there would be an economic decline. I stated that if the Republicans got in, it would get steadily worse until 2005, when the value of the dollar would be about 50 cents in 1999 money. If the Democrats won the 2000 election, there would be a recovery starting in late 2002.

During GWBs time, the euro has risen from about $0.9 to nearly $1.3. This is not true, the dollar has dropped that much. From September 30, 1999 to September 30, 2004, the national debt has risen from $5,656,270,901,633.43 to $7,379,052,696,330.32 or over 30%, the fastest rise in our history.

Of course, the economic decline has started.

Go figure.

My forecast for the next four years:
Republicans elected: Value of dollar will drop another 40% National debt will increase 45%
Democrats elected: Value of dollar will continue to drop for another 2 years, stabilize and nudge back a little. National debt will increase for 1 year until efforts to stabilize it will start showing and will show a small drop (5%) by the end.

Of course, the economic decline has started. Go figure whether it will continue over the next 4 years. Its in your hands on November 2.

[Peak_Plus]

There are some things that neither Democrat nor Republican can fix. Demographics is one of them. The oil supply is another. The shit is going to hit the fan one way or the other. The real estate bubble is going to burst and it will not recover soon. One should partly protect oneselve agains intermittent inflation by buying partly leveraged real estate, but not more than 50%. The dollar is going to fall, but who cares if it recovers soon? The US buys its houses in dollar. If oil is more expensive because of dollar slide, innovation will be spurred on, although I doubt it will be enough to change the energy equation much very soon. I would also be very careful about making concrete predictions on the economy according to who is voted in...

[Tom_caribbean]

Escape to the caribbean <a href='http://www.realestate.com.pr'> Real Estate in Puerto Rico </a>
..javascript:emoticon(':-D')
Very Happy

[Tom_caribbean]

Escape to the caribbean Real Estate in Puerto Rico

Very Happy

[KiddieKorral]

If you're interested in relocating abroad, try escapeartist.com.

[Kingcoal]

I think the Whitehouse is working to hasten the fall of the dollar to produce a financial catatrophy. This will be the perfect environment to sell the ideas of drastically cutting government spending. The country will be rebuilt into a production economy to pay off the debt.

In other words, buy gold. I'm a landlord and it's tough to find renters these days that don't have a bad credit history. In most states the renters can cause the landlord a lot of money if they decide to quit paying their rent. In a recession, it's tough being a landlord, believe me.

[KiddieKorral]

Found this on USAGold:

'Twas the death of the dollar and all through the land
Not a greenback was traded for more than a Rand.
The paper was shoveled with nary a care
With hopes that inflation would not soon be there.
My children sit quiet and await the sad tale
Of the day that the Dollar Standard had failed.
In the quaint days of old when money was good
We bought nothing with debt and saved as we should.
But Lord Father Keynes had preached to the crowd
That paper was good and honest and proud!
We've no need for metal like silver or gold
Such thinking and bias is foolish and old.
We'll print all we need and make not a fuss
The lessons of history apply not to us.
Reserve Notes were hailed as safe from the fate
That befell all nations both humble and great.
Then oceans of ink and forests of trees
Were forged into money by sovereign decrees.
The world emerged from her shackles of rust
The barbarous relics were tossed in the dust!
Dreaming we had beaten the liquidity trap
We all settled down for the Kondratieff nap.
When straight from the East there arose such a stink
The unmistakable scent of paper and ink.
We've seen these before, we sent them to you,
How terribly rude to refuse I.O.U.s!
With credit for you and credit for me
There's no cause to work for the things that we need.
Our friends in the East are happy to loan
Their savings back West, but it's us they shall own.
Their factories were built by the sweat of the brow
And their people were fed from the fruit of the plow.
The things that we bought they shipped them all here
Prices are low, so there's nothing to fear!
Our presses of print glowed white from the heat
Once cut loose from gold there is no retreat.
So the banks of the world stacked them twenty feet high
Locked safe in their vaults away from the eye.
Its funny, you know, that they guard them with care
They sold out their gold to make room for them there.
Protected by buzzers and bells that alarm
Believing that this made them safe from all harm
While so far away to the debtors delight
A fresh batch just like them appeared in the night!
While in the short term the sad joke was on them
They planned and they plotted the payback of men.
They graciously smiled when we handed them more
Knowing full well they'd be back on our shore.
At first they bought Treasury Debt by the ton
It kept the game going; it's all in good fun!
But the more that they loaned the more they got back
Their grand plan had failed, it's time to attack!
We know what we'll do, we'll dump them en masse
We'll buy all the gold and the silver and brass.
Right at the mine with our briefcase of bills
We'll buy it all up then head for the hills.
Whatever is left we will dump on the floor
With metal in hand we'll need them no more.
I remember the fear in the pits on that day
The index had tumbled, all support went away.
She opened no bid and was down for the count
No one was buying in any amount.
The bottom had fallen below the last floor
The traders and hedgers all rushed for the door.
Where was the fabled Japanese boost
When the chickens aplenty had come home to roost?
Elliott's disciples who worshipped the waves
Were blinded by graphs and so they behaved
By dumping their gold when reading twin peaks
They regretted their choice at the end of the week!
A six-pack of Joes arose from the din
They wondered whatever had done the buck in?
With her intaglio portraits of leaders of yore
And shifty black ink that seemed green just before.
Its counterfeit proof was the Treasury song
It only requires that the world play along.
The sheeple did bleat with their handfuls of cash,
Shell-shocked and seeing their wealth was now trash.

[Andy]

Escape to the caribbean Real Estate in Puerto Rico

That will not be a good idea. A lot of Caribbean islands are already heavily overpopulated and will not survive a serious food crunch. Puerto Rico is a prime example. Well over 3 million people in less than 4,000 sq miles; Jamaica will not be good either; Barbados will not be good; many Virgin islands will not be good; Dom. Rep and Haiti (Hispaniola) will also not be good . Only very small area, very small population islands would make sense. In additon to the islands having small areas, in many, a lot of the land is non arable/difficult terrain and very low fertility. Think very carefully before running to the Caribbean with Real Estate speculation in mind.