[PhilBiker]

Again, in case it got lost in all the text here....

The reason the Easter Island analogy is applicable is that Easter Island was extremely remote, and completely cut off from the rest of polynesian civilization. It was a complete little "biosphere" all it's own whose residents had no contact with the rest of the world. Very much like Earth is isolated.

All the other islands that didn't suffer similar collapse were not isolated. That's exactly why they didn't collapse.

[TrueKaiser]

Again, in case it got lost in all the text here....

The reason the Easter Island analogy is applicable is that Easter Island was extremely remote, and completely cut off from the rest of polynesian civilization. It was a complete little "biosphere" all it's own whose residents had no contact with the rest of the world. Very much like Earth is isolated.

All the other islands that didn't suffer similar collapse were not isolated. That's exactly why they didn't collapse.

lets see the differnces between the whole earth and the island. off the top of my head that are not taken into acount before the doomers hold the island up as their trophy.

population size

easter island was pre-wheel. any person off the street that is of reasonable age and having both hands can make a wheel now(not counting the quality)

land area.

weather conditions and enviroments (the whole earth is not one biosphere it is a collection of several, some meet others don't)

i admit at first when i saw the easter island example i thought it was a good one but once i digged deeper into it, the way the most of the people here(the doomers) present it only makes it look good. in reality it's a fataly flawed example.

[Blueberry]

If you can relate the world resource/population situation to Easter Island, at what point do you think we're at?

For instance, on EE there seemed to be a gradual lessening of the quality of life followed by war/troubles and resource decline that finally stabilized into a smaller community living within their means. Of course, in our current situation there is always the threat of nukes, pandemic disease, etc...

But, as I was walking down the streeet I couldn't help but think we're quite a long way away from complete resource decimation and that there's tons of scavenging material around. Of course, Dr. Bartlett's exponential theory would say that we could go through those materials quite quickly at a certain point. What do you think -- where are we at?

This is the article on Easter Island I'm referring to: http://dieoff.com/page145.htm

[Specop_007]

To me the important fact in that scenario is this.
They never stopped. Even when they saw the resources dwindling, they never stopped using.
Until the very end of it all they kept consuming and consuming.

Their one saving grace? They werent world superpowers with the power of the sun and the ability to wage war the globe over to get more of those dwindling resources.

Scared yet?

[turmoil]

well it's an interesting question

the site mentioned in this thread might help you out...

http://peakoil.com/fortopic11099.html

[Blueberry]

Ya, nukes make the warring part a little tricky.

[dmtu]

Yes!

I think we are at 5 on a scale of 1-10 and I really don't think the world as a whole will go above 7 or 8 because natural decline will almost have to occur and even things out. This thought really revolves around no huge climate change or as some point at no runaway global warming.

[eastbay]

I too was going to suggest a 5 on a 1 to 10 scale, but after thinking a few seconds (ok, no jokes here...lol) I have decided we may very well be at 5, but the 1 to 4 took a very long time to occur and the 6 to 10 will happen rather quickly.

And 10 is not a happy place. It means complete and absolute destruction of the environment to satisfy post-oil energy needs.... such as rainforest destruction... soil depletion... etc.

EastBay

[dmtu]

Good point, I'm glad I won't see it but the next 200 years could certainly become very ugly.

[eastbay]

200 years? That's a very optimistic perspective. I certainly wish I could share in your "bright" view of the future.

I believe humanity will be fortunate to make it through the next 50 years.

EastBay

[killJOY]

They never stopped.

Heh heh. Spec, how can a doofus like you be so brilliant sometimes?

This is why all this talk of all the fabulous alternatives and market forces and cars driven by mini nuclear reactors and fischer-tropsch fuels and wind mill skateboards and tractors driven by thermodepolymerized avocado pits STRIKES ME AS BLATHER.

Look around you...See anything happening?

Yes, we probably DO have the capacity to deal with Peak, but I have to take my ten daughters to their judo classes fifteen times a day, so I need a fleet of Bradley vehicles.

Imagine a coupla guys on Easter standing there, looking at the last stand of trees:

"What happens after those trees are gone?"
"Somebody will think of something."


I have a suggestion: EAT EACH OTHER.

[killJOY]

P.S. Blueberry, what is that THING floating amongst the berries in your avatar? (It looks like something fleshy and yummy).


I've picked and frozen three quarts thus far.

[Markos101]

Let's get something straight about Easter Island. It isn't a realistic expression of where we are today.

Firstly, the Easter Islanders did not have ANY alternatives to even try and smooth the decline - they had wood. They cut it down, too much for new wood to grow, and so depleted their resources. They had nothing left.

We don't. We still have a good amount of coal, gas, nuclear, wind, solar, which can all be used in replacement during a decline. So our decline will not be the tremendous crash that apparently Easter Island was.

I think the Easter Island example is a haven for the total doomers who really WANT there to be a complete die-off; after all, it relieves one from one's responsibilities to live, right?

Mark

[killJOY]

I think the Easter Island example is a haven for the total doomers who really WANT there to be a complete die-off; after all, it relieves one from one's responsibilities to live, right?

Oh, how brilliant. You should carve your name onto a little shingle and hang it outside your door, you are SUCH a little psychoanalyst!

[translation: he's another freak whose argumentative equipment consists only of one tool: ad hominem]

[Raxozanne]

P.S. Blueberry, what is that THING floating amongst the berries in your avatar? (It looks like something fleshy and yummy).

It looks like a loaf of bread (with a smilie blueberry face in the middle) to me with a slice hanging down.

[Blueberry]

Okay, about the not stopping part:

These EE guys didn't stop for a very good reason. If they stopped, then the OTHER guys would get it.

So, instead of working out a plan with each other -- since there didn't appear to be *any* solution to the shortage (like growing a new forest, moving away) they fought.

Bloody, cannibalistic war.

And those beautiful monuments that *took* the forest's energy and starved their children still stood.

For a couple more years anyway.

I see it today. Nobody will let go.

Because of fear.

I agree with others -- we're about 5 -- the last 20 years have been a time of depletion that will continue. And at a certain point, because of exponential reasons, we'll seem to have a lot, and not have much at all.

Markos101 -- It is a realistic model for human behavior in times *past* of resource depletion. Of course, we're not like that now, since we're civilized and have TV:

We don't believe in resource wars, or "screwin over the next guy, least I get **MINE**". Oh, and we, of course, invented Earth2, which solves any resource issues entirely.

But you bring up a good point: Why care? It makes you unhappy and keeps you from being.

I don't know, maybe ignorance truly is bliss, dammit.

But, maybe acceptance is bliss, too. Acceptance with walking through fear. Preferably holding someone's hand while doing so.

killJOY -- it's what happens when you're stupid enough to give Blueberry Bread free will.

Lol... What's that in YOUR avatar????!!!

Raxozanne --

[Specop_007]

They never stopped.

Heh heh. Spec, how can a doofus like you be so brilliant sometimes?

I have my moments.

[PhilBiker]

back to the original post......

We right now have lots of new boats, we're fishing like mad, the catch is dwindling a little. We're building statues as big as ever. The chickens are doing great, cropland covers the island.

There are no more trees that can reproduce. The very few trees that remain are smnall.

[sklump]

Easter Island? Depletion? Die-off?

I don't know anything about that stuff. But one thing I do know, the Big Stone Head Centrum, just 15 minutes from the Ring Road Bypass, is going to be huge. It'll have a Denny's, the State's Biggest McDonald's, a Wal-Mart Super Centre, an Auto Mall, an AMC 36-screen Cineplex, a Casino, a drive-through Bowl-a-rama, and 8500 parking spots with extra-wide space for Large Cars Only in convenient locations.

At last a shopping experience that's so complete, its logo won't even need ears to listen to anything else.

Do you smell - something - burning ?

[Blueberry]

Thanks for the replies, I agree, I agree.

_____________________________________________________________

You think that good is hating what is bad.

What is bad is the hating mind itself.

Bon Kai