[onlooker]

So let me get this straight they're is no scientific conclusive theory or conclusion that CO emissions can correlate with an impending earthquake? I and others I am sure would be quite curious if anyone here can find out if they're is some proven connection or correlation.

[dohboi]

diemos and ol.

Please see the paper I just attached.

There is more than one scientific source linking elevated CO levels and quakes, but I don't think anyone would call it a robust part of the science.

[diemos]

Send the authors an e-mail. I'm sure they'd love to hear from you.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ... 2710000338

[Newfie]

Where they gonna go?

Detroit...and Flint.

They could spruce things up a bit, some new thinking. Couldn't hurt!

[JV153]

There is one paper, from one Indian researcher making this connection. He has apparently been inundated with inquiries from the doomerista set and is nixing any California earthquake prediction.

No, I mean there's no report of high CO levels in that area.

[diemos]

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ch ... 643,31.735

[careinke]

Well I certainly hope the "Brush Burning" theory is the correct one!

However, I'm not sure it explains the large amount of CO over the Cascadia Subduction Zone in Washington taken on 26 Feb. I suppose winds could have carried it from California, but I would have expected a lot of diffusion to occur. Also there seems to be a gap of CO around the Olympia area, from the Feb 26 data.

Here is the link to the updated story showing the CO has now dissipated in the North, but still following the fault lines in CA.

https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/955

This story whether correct or not, at least gave me a kick in the ass to improve my disaster preps. Anybody want to be the "not on the coast" point of contact for my family?? Just kidding, I already have one. Do the rest of us P.O. Left Coasties have one? Something to think about.

[onlooker]

https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/955
Concerns of "Major" West Coast Earthquake Growing as San Andreas, Melones and Elsinore Faults Spew More Carbon Monoxide
I would think added concern now is warranted.

[dohboi]

There are certainly mostly very small tremors all along the fault line over the last week, but I'm pretty sure that is completely normal. I don't see anything unusual happening yet, but more experienced observers should feel free to correct me:

http://scedc.caltech.edu/recent/

[onlooker]

Well according to what I read, smaller tremors many times precede larger ones. I also hope someone with more expertise can comment.

[ROCKMAN]

dohboi - Your map indicates the vast majority of tremors were 3 or less. According to the USGS annually there are tens of thousands of such tremors in CA and 1.6 MILLION globally. The earth is always shaking somewhere. But usually releasing very small amounts of energy.

[Tanada]

Well according to what I read, smaller tremors many times precede larger ones. I also hope someone with more expertise can comment.

In a place like California where two major plates are rubbing across one another small tremors are very frequent, to the point that I have been told most natives and long term residents don't even notice anything that doesn't cause physical damage. Around Ohio if you can feel a quake you freak out at least some of the time, just because they are so rare and unexpected.

A major California quake would certainly show whether FEMA has improved their reaction time, ever since Katrina in 2005 people have been paying closer attention and on most occasions they have gotten low marks. Of course I hope we don't get a massive quake, but the science on the ground says there is a lot of seismic energy stored up in the plate boundaries that needs to be released.

[shortonoil]

Carbon monoxide is a very active gas that readily reacts with the OH molecular to form CO2. For levels to build up to what was reported would require a huge injection of the gas for a considerable period of time. This is most likely a geological phenomena.

http://esseacourses.strategies.org/modu ... ule_id=170

[onlooker]

So Tanada in your estimation can we ever get very precise in predicting Earthquakes?. Perhaps even a week before to allow for evacuation and such. I would have thought considering our overall technological progress we would have reached that point by now. Then again I thought we would have discovered the cure for Cancer by now. You see I am not all doom and gloom hehe.

[coffeeguyzz]

As of this posting (Tues. A.M. 3/1) there are conflicting reports involving ground sensors and satellite not synching.
However, the internet is heating up quickly on this topic with several references to this being a precursor to an earthquake.

FWIW, the past few days saw a decline in the readings, but they seemed to be highest near three distinct fault lines.

[Subjectivist]

So Tanada in your estimation can we ever get very precise in predicting Earthquakes?. Perhaps even a week before to allow for evacuation and such. I would have thought considering our overall technological progress we would have reached that point by now. Then again I thought we would have discovered the cure for Cancer by now. You see I am not all doom and gloom hehe.

Once we had no way of predicting Volcanic eruptions, then a couple decades ago a scientist figured out that harmonic tremor earthquakes were made by lava breaking rock layers and squeezing through the new openings before an eruption. Since then volcano prediction has gone from pure guesswork to something downright respectable. They don't get it right all the time, but they get it right more often than they get it wrong.

Maybe high CO levels are the 'harmonic tremor' of earthquake prediction. It would be exciting to live in a time when such an important discovery is proven to be true! Maybe it's just pure random chance and there is no actual association between CO levels and major earthquakes. If that turns out to be the case it still advances the science of earthquake prediction, by eliminating yet another blind alley of investigation. God gave us brains so we could figure things out, never give up, never surrender!

[Tanada]

So Tanada in your estimation can we ever get very precise in predicting Earthquakes?. Perhaps even a week before to allow for evacuation and such. I would have thought considering our overall technological progress we would have reached that point by now. Then again I thought we would have discovered the cure for Cancer by now. You see I am not all doom and gloom hehe.

The cure for Cancer is like the cure for the common cold, what we call cancer is actually a vast collection of maladies that come from some cells reproducing at the expense of the body as a whole. In fact about a third of cancers more or less can be destroyed by dietary intervention and another third can be 'cured' with a combination of surgery, chemotherapy and radiation treatments. Unfortunately we still lose about 20 percent of Americans who die each year from some form of cancer. Partly that is from ignorance of not enacting the best combination of treatments in a timely manner, and partly it is bad luck because some people do not show symptoms until it is too late for any treatment to be effective in defeating cancer.

As for Earthquakes, I think if this CO idea works out that would be a great benefit, however this is the first promising development I have heard in many years. The thing is Earthquakes come from a very long data set of conditions that all add up together to the breaking point of the rock in question. We would have a near impossible task to add together all of the factors, many of which remain unknowable, to make a detailed prediction. It is the same problem we have predicting weather, we know some of the variables, but the variable list is very longs and all of them are in a state of flux so we can make statistical models and empirical observations and add them together in a model to make a projection, but the further in the future we go the less validity the model run has.

Chaos! We know an earthquake of a certain magnitude has a certain probability for any given year, but so far all we can do is guess if this is the year that magnitude quake happens, or if it will be next year or 25 years from now.

[dbruning]

UPDATED: Final Confirmation — It’s A Model Algorithm Error.

Dr. Gavin Schmidt, head of GISS NASA, has confirmed the glitch in his twitter feed which you can read here. He notes:

The Elevated Carbon Monoxide concentrations in the GEOS 5 products since February 25 of 2016 are incorrect. They are the consequence of unrealistic CO emissions computed by our biomass burning algorithm, which is based on satellite observation of fires… GMAO is working to correct this problem.

You can read the correction at the bottom of the original post:

http://robertscribbler.com/2016/02/29/c ... -going-on/

Whew.