[pup55]

couldn't resist responding to this....


In 2100 C.E.:

What will the average per capita energy use be?
oil about .6 barrels per person, just like in modern Bangladesh.

What will the average life expectancy be? 55 globally, people will be "encouraged" to not stay around longer than that based on their physical ability to grow food.

Will there be computers? yes
Will there be an Internet? yes
Will we have space travel? no

Will there be cars or some non-animal-powered form of individual human transport? yes. Battery technology will enable efficient 100% electric vehicles for the fatcats and government.

How many people will live on Earth? 3 billions

What will be the most prosperous region of the planet? Scandinavia, just like today.

What will be the poorest region of the planet? Saudi Arabia

Will we preserve the scientific and mathematical knowledge that we have gained over the past several hundred years?

yes, unless we put it all on writable CD's

Will we build upon it? yes, but the technological advances will not be able to be used on a widespread basis because no more mass production and mass consumption.

Will there be a United States of America? No. It will split into 6-7 smaller subnations easier to control, as will China and Russia.

How will people get most of their energy? solar and micro-scale electrical power generators

How will daily life differ from today? The average American will revert back to the size they were during the civil war, 5'7" and 145 lbs. Not enough food for larger people to reproduce. Food will be grown locally, even in the burned-out hulk of the inner cities. Drugs will be freely distributed by the government to keep the masses doped up (like they are now).

What will the major religions of this time be? New made-for-TV religion will surpass fundamentalist christianity.

Will life in general resemble something out of the past (e.g. stone age life, medieval European life, 20th century American life) or will it be something we cannot imagine yet? New. Politically, some elements of feudalism with peasants and serfs/sharecroppers/indentured servents/slaves working to be allowed to stay on the land. Other parts of society will retain an elite educated class, with modern technology. An oligarchy of the wealthy will run the show and own everything. There will be an armed guard at every corner and posted outside businesses to discourage the riffraff. Millions will live in cardboard and sheet metal shacks outside of the major cities, just like in Peru today. Frequent purges, summary executions, and other means of control will keep rioting to a minimum. Organized "street thugs" will rule over little fiefdoms, and control economic activity in their areas, using violence and what we call "gangsterism" as a source of power. There will be minimal judicial system, and society will have a lot of problems with people trying to conduct honest business because of no framework of laws.

In 2500 C.E.:

What will the average per capita energy use be? zero

What will the average life expectancy be? 35 years, same as in 1900.

Will there be computers? no
Will there be an Internet? no
Will we have space travel? no

Will there be cars or some non-animal-powered form of individual human transport? no. Horse-drawn wagons will make a comeback, as will walking.

How many people will live on Earth? About 100 million.

What will be the most prosperous region of the planet? Isolated pockets of prosperity on most of the continents where liveable niches can be found.

What will be the poorest region of the planet? big regions of every continent glowing in the dark and uninhabitable

Will we preserve the scientific and mathematical knowledge that we have gained over the past several hundred years? Will we build upon it? No, in fact just the opposite. Scientific knowledge will be guarded and maintained by a dictatorial government so as to avoid another catastrophe. Humans will be controlled by a combination of brute force and superstition.


Will there be a United States of America? no

How will people get most of their energy? biomass

How will daily life differ from today? Earth will be ruled by a species of mutant apes, who are able to communicate by speaking. Humans will be treated like livestock.

How will daily life be simliar? Your boss will be a monkey.

What will the major religions of this time be? An ape-god will take the place of the human dieties.

Will life in general resemble something out of the past (e.g. stone age life, medieval European life, 20th century American life) or will it be something we cannot imagine yet? Yes, 1960's science fiction.

[Kaminyu]

In 2100 C.E.:

What will the average per capita energy use be?
Less than what it is today.
What will the average life expectancy be?
100-120. People would probably live healthier lives.
Will there be computers?
Yes, if there is electricity being generated.
Will there be an Internet?
Yes, if there are usable computers.
Will we have space travel?
No.
Will there be cars or some non-animal-powered form of individual human transport?
Bicycles mabye, or a Flintstones-type mobile
How many people will live on Earth?
approximately 60 million
What will be the most prosperous region of the planet?
Regions that were never fully or properly industrialized.
What will be the poorest region of the planet?
Regions that were once industrialized.
Will we preserve the scientific and mathematical knowledge that we have gained over the past several hundred years? Will we build upon it?
Yes, but nothing of would be built of any major significance.
Will there be a United States of America?
No.
How will people get most of their energy?
Perhaps wind or solar power or some other alternative to generate electricity.
How will daily life differ from today?
Long-distance travel is done via horseback or ships. Short-distance travel is done walking. Everyone grows his or her own food.
How will daily life be simliar?
There would probably still be commerce, business, trade, buying, selling, and some kind of governing power. People would still be people. Friends, and families would probably still exist Disputes, crime, corruption and exploitation would probably also still exist.
What will the major religions of this time be?
Islam, and various "new-age" religions.
Will life in general resemble something out of the past (e.g. stone age life, medieval European life, 20th century American life) or will it be something we cannot imagine yet?
Something somewhat new and at the same time somewhat familiar.

In 2500 C.E.:

What will the average per capita energy use be?
Probably next to nothing. Less than in 2100
What will the average life expectancy be?
100-120, same as before.
Will there be computers?
Yes, either in use or obsolete
Will there be an Internet?
That depends on the alternatives and how much electricity they can produce.
Will we have space travel?
No.
Will there be cars or some non-animal-powered form of individual human transport?
Perhaps Flintstone-mobiles. Bicycles mabye.
How many people will live on Earth?
approximately 1 billion.
What will be the most prosperous region of the planet?
Areas that can sustain people.
What will be the poorest region of the planet?
Areas that can't sustain people.
Will we preserve the scientific and mathematical knowledge that we have gained over the past several hundred years? Will we build upon it?
Yes, but nothing would be built of any major significance.
Will there be a United States of America?
No
How will people get most of their energy?
Whatever still remains of the alternatives.
How will daily life differ from today?
Same as in 2100
How will daily life be simliar?
Same as in 2100.
What will the major religions of this time be?
Probably "new age" religions along the lines of paganism
Will life in general resemble something out of the past (e.g. stone age life, medieval European life, 20th century American life) or will it be something we cannot imagine yet?
Much like it was in 2100, with a few advancements here and there, as well some things becoming more primative.

[TrueKaiser]

Will we preserve the scientific and mathematical knowledge that we have gained over the past several hundred years?

yes, unless we put it all on writable CD's

ok this i will have to point out as not a very smart way to store stuff. if we forget the fact that in 95 years cd's will be obsolete many times over.
burnable cd's and cd-rw's are made of light sensitive ink. this ink will rot in as little as 2 years under normal usage. it can last up to 5 years if you store them in a temperature controlled box out of direct light. this also apply's to dvd-/+r and dvd-/+rw. the stamped versions of cd's and dvd's, the ones that you get at the store that have movies or programs on them. they are stamped onto a thin sheet of metal and will generally last allot longer. probably up to 100 years under normal usage(if taken care of) and longer if stored away.

for comparison a vhs tape under normal usage(played every few days) will last about 15 years, same with betamax. they will both last over 20 if stored properly, this is the main reason company's use tape cartridges to back up their data. they last a whole heck of allot longer then cd's and dvd's. even these though are not the best way to store information. the absolute best way to store information for the long term would be a stone tablet made of one of the harder types of stone and sealed away in a corrosive proof container. the second best would be a non-valuable metal(ex no gold, silver, platinum etc) that is also corrosive proof and sealed in a corrosive proof container. if you cannot get your hands on the previous two, non-acidic paper and non-acidic ink would be your best bet as long as you make multiple copy's and store them in different geographic areas.

[Tyler_JC]

2100
What will the average per capita energy use be?
.5 BOE or less (third world standard of living)
What will the average life expectancy be?
50-60 in the rich areas, <40 in the poorer areas
Will there be computers?
Yes, but not for the average man or woman
Will there be an Internet?
No, not enough working computer+energy would be too expensive
Will we have space travel?
Nope
Will there be cars or some non-animal-powered form of individual human transport?
Yes, wind-powered ships and maybe some steam powered trains
How many people will live on Earth?
About 2 billion, and dropping
What will be the most prosperous region of the planet?
parts of Europe and North America
What will be the poorest region of the planet?
Africa, South America
Will we preserve the scientific and mathematical knowledge that we have gained over the past several hundred years? Will we build upon it?
Some stuff will be saved, other stuff will be lost
Will there be a United States of America?
Not in its present form
How will people get most of their energy?
the sun
How will daily life differ from today?
life will be short and it will suck
How will daily life be simliar?
people will still be living
What will the major religions of this time be?
same as today
Will life in general resemble something out of the past (e.g. stone age life, medieval European life, 20th century American life) or will it be something we cannot imagine yet?
Europe circa 1100AD

[Njegosh]

In 2100 C.E.:

What will the average per capita energy use be?
60% max of which 80% will be used by the richest 20%
What will the average life expectancy be?
will always be dependant on where you live,but for most it will short and brutal
Will there be computers? yes
Will there be an Internet? sort of
Will we have space travel?
The Devil will be wearing thermals before that happens
Will there be cars or some non-animal-powered form of individual human transport? yes, for the ultrarich,their military infrastructure and the scavengers
How many people will live on Earth? 4 billion if we're insanely lucky,down to a few 100 million if we're not.
What will be the most prosperous region of the planet?
There will be "defended"pockets of affluence throughtout the world,size will depend on type of crash
What will be the poorest region of the planet?
define poor,in a hard crash everybody goes down to ground,except the happy few,Eurpe will only be marginaly better off.
Will we preserve the scientific and mathematical knowledge that we have gained over the past several hundred years? Will we build upon it?
Somewhat,but we will have lost a lot along the way,and no there will be a technological regression
Will there be a United States of America?
The Northern Commonwealth(NE US+East Canada),The Confederate States of America,The Republic of Greater Texas,The Union of Central States(northern biblebelt),The Western Confederacy,and the Peoples Republic of South California will be in constant struggle against each other.
How will people get most of their energy?
by any means possible
How will daily life differ from today?much greater chance of living in a combat zone
How will daily life be simliar? We will all try to make it through another day
What will the major religions of this time be? Fragments of all religions,in some places mutated beyond recognition.
Will life in general resemble something out of the past (e.g. stone age life, medieval European life, 20th century American life) or will it be something we cannot imagine yet?all the possibilities mentioned will be present

2500
Too far for me too speculate on,sorry

[0mar]

wow and I thought I was pessimesitic!

I see a bad transition period, but civilization returning with new found perspective.

[Art_Vandelai]

In 2100 C.E.:

What will the average per capita energy use be?
Probably about half of today's.

What will the average life expectancy be?
In 1st world probably average mid-60's-70's, elsewhere 40's-50's.

Will there be computers? yes, 10 times more powerful and more energy efficient than today's.

Will there be an Internet? Yes, but very unlike today's internet. People will not have freedom to communicate and have access to knowledge like we do today. Every click will be tracked to your ID and will have to be expressly permitted.

Will we have space travel? Yes - Voyager and many other of the space probes launched since the 70's will be hurtling out of our solar system.

Will there be cars or some non-animal-powered form of individual human transport? Very small electric cars, some kind of enclosed motorcycles maybe, otherwise bicycles.

How many people will live on Earth? 4-5 billion

What will be the most prosperous region of the planet?
Canada & US, northern Europe and Scandinavia, southern parts of Argentina & Chile.

What will be the poorest region of the planet? Latin America, parts of Africa, China, Japan, Russia, Middle East, and most Pacific Rim & Indian Ocean countries.

Will we preserve the scientific and mathematical knowledge that we have gained over the past several hundred years?
Will we build upon it? Humanity's knowledge will be increased substantially, but the average person will barely be able to feed him/herself.

Will there be a United States of America? Yes, probably in much the same political arrangement as today.

How will people get most of their energy? Combination of hydro-electric, some coal, oil & gas, thermal depolymerization of waste, wind, solar

How will daily life differ from today? Western societies will be much more centred around farming and water supplies, people will migrate away from cities to the heartland. Nothing will be allowed to be wasted, not even poop. Populated areas will be tightly controlled.

How will daily life be simliar? We will still be fascinated by famous people.

What will the major religions of this time be? Christianity, Buddhist, Hindu, Islam

Will life in general resemble something out of the past (e.g. stone age life, medieval European life, 20th century American life) or will it be something we cannot imagine yet? Daily life in America will likely be like in the 1950's, only with powerful computers, which will be relied upon for every need

2500

What will the average per capita energy use be? 100x today's.

What will the average life expectancy be? 100-110.

Will there be computers? yes, we likely won't be able to tell the difference between man-made "computers" and people, in fact, the lines between real and artificial would have been blurred a couple of centuries ago, although some isolated pockets (mostly poor, inbred societies) of pure humans would still exist.

Will there be an Internet? Yes, it will be controlled by thought - I certainly hope spam is no longer around in 2500 AD

Will we have space travel? Yes - we will probably have some kind of space programs around the world.

Will there be cars or some non-animal-powered form of individual human transport? There will be very little need for transport outside of walking distance for most people.

How many people will live on Earth? 2 - 3 billion, very carefully managed by the Powers In Charge.

What will be the most prosperous region of the planet? North America & Europe

What will be the poorest region of the planet? Africa & Asia

Will we preserve the scientific and mathematical knowledge that we have gained over the past several hundred years?
Will we build upon it? By 2150-2200, we will have learned basically how to build artificial life from carbon and DNA. These lifeforms will constantly evolve, and become almost identical to real humans. By 2500 our knowledge as a species will be millions of times more advanced than it is today.

Will there be a United States of America? I'm guessing that it will be unrecognizable to today's. Some states will leave and become independent, others around the world will join for protection or out of being forced to join.

How will people get most of their energy? Photosynthetic - for example: the grass on the lawn, instead of using the sun's energy for growth will pass the energy through to the surrounding energy net or grid. The side benefit is...we'd never have to cut the grass either.

How will daily life differ from today? Others will be capable of reading your thoughts with their powerful computers. Individuality will be a relic of the past. People will do the jobs they are told to do, and live the life they are told to live, if they want to live that is.

How will daily life be simliar? We will still be fascinated by famous people.

What will the major religions of this time be? Whatever the thought police tell people to worship.

Will life in general resemble something out of the past (e.g. stone age life, medieval European life, 20th century American life) or will it be something we cannot imagine yet?
I imagine much like the 20th century, just without the ability to transport onself or to even have private thought.

[Richard]

In 2100 C.E.:

What will the average per capita energy use be? Third world standards.
What will the average life expectancy be? 60.
Will there be computers? No.
Will there be an Internet? No.
Will we have space travel? You're joking?!
Will there be cars or some non-animal-powered form of individual human transport? No electric cars. Wooden carts pulled by slaves - you whip their arses.
How many people will live on Earth? Same as 400 years ago, before coal.
What will be the most prosperous region of the planet? Northern / Southern hemispheres. People on the equator will be roasted alive by global warming.
What will be the poorest region of the planet? We'll all be poor.
Will we preserve the scientific and mathematical knowledge that we have gained over the past several hundred years? We'll loose most of it.
Will there be a United States of America? No chance. Feaudal kingdoms.
How will people get most of their energy? Root vegetables. No electricty.
How will daily life differ from today? Medievil.
How will daily life be simliar? They'll still be people promoting the hydrogen economy.
What will the major religions of this time be? Indigeonous beleifs.
Will life in general resemble something out of the past. Medieval European life.

In 2500 C.E.:

Same as 2100, except most buildings will be made from stone or wood. The others will have collapsed.

[chris-h]

2100 ?

Animatrix

2500 ?

Neo takes the red pill.


Humans have no good future if they do not evolve.

[Dezakin]

Making projections beyond 2050 is pretty much impossible. Computers have something to do with it.

Sometime in the next 50 years, we'll be able to simulate a human brain in software.

[madison]

My answers:

Average per capita energy use: 0, though I might imagine a few local government offices might have old solar panels that are still operational and used basically for light.

Average life expectancy: Probobly depends on where you are located in the world - whether there is war and/or biological weapon fallout/hereditary damage, how damaged your areas land is, how much freshwater you have available for use, how much forested land you have, how much you know about sustainable living that was passed down to you from your distant relatives (us, here now). Anywhere from 35 to 65, my guess.

Will there be computers? No, why would we need them in everyday life at this point? Can they water a garden, take care of the baby, teach the kids, bake the bread, harvest the crops? No. Maybe a few local government offices might have them to keep track of deaths & births and taxes and such. By this time, folks will know how to garden (and won't need books and internet) or they will be dead.

Will there be internet? Again, what use would the internet be to an agrarian society?

Will there be cars or non-animal powered transportation? Maybe trains for transporting essentials around; sail powered boats; barges maybe.

How many people will be living on Earth? We will be de-populating at this time. Most of the massive die off will have occured, but new diseases will pop up in light of the rotting human corpses and biological weapons etc. Maybe 2 billion and falling, my guess.

Will we preserve the scientific and mathematical knowledge? Only what is useful and locally available will be preserved. There will still be books, but unless they are preserved with chemcials, they will be old and yellowed by then and well on their way to rotting. Unless it gets copied to vellum, it's gone.

Will there be a USA? Maybe back east in DC and surrounding areas. I don't believe the infrastructure required will survive much, but I could be wrong, as I'm equally sure the gov't will keep remaining supplies of oil and energy for themselves.

How will people get their energy? Calories. Food intake = energy output. Human or animal powered labor, passive solar energy for heating/cooling homes, gravity water powered mills etc.

How will life then differ from today? We have the same wishes - something meaninful to work at, someone to love, something to hope for. Work will likely mean some form of farming/gardening, working on crafts and skilled labor, trade or barter will be the monetary system to a large degree, titheing to the gov't. I think we'll see the apprentice/journeyman/master system make a return, more gender specific roles but with more variety and exceptions than in the past medieval periods. I envision living with the sun, up before dawn, asleap when dark. I also think we'll live in extended family units and in vague "tribal" units, and the value of our lives will be weighed in security vs how much we own.

What will be the major religions? I have a hard time seeing the major religions disappear, though I wish they would. This also will likely depend on where you live on earth. I do envision people being more tied to the land and it's cycles, so likely a return to seeing the land as holy etc.

Will life resemble the Stone Age, Medieval period etc? Again, likely dependent on where you live. I am hoping for a new lifestyle. A democratic local self-governing village idea, where cooperation is rewarded and individualism discouraged without crushing uniqueness. Using the knowledge we have NOW about how to live i nharmony with the land combined with right livelihood and more communal living. I think we'll see guilds of bakers, shoemakers, candlemakers, gardeners (urban & rural), teachers etc. all working on their specific skill while being generalists, too. People will have kids younger (16, 17 will be considered young adults) and become grandparents sooner, and likely die sooner, too. I do like "A Letter From The Future" idea, though it is bleak.

Again, so much of "what will the future look like" will depend on where you live. If you have abundant natural resources and few people, then you'll likely do better than someone living in a concrete jungle with no way to support themselves and their families. War torn countries will have it harder than peaceful ones, and those who were less industrialized will likely retain more of the life-sustaining skills than a very industrialized nation/area.

[M_B_S]

http://paulchefurka.com/WEAP/WEAP.pdf

Thesis:

Oil export stop 2013

Peak energy 2020

Peak Homo Sapiens 2020 @ 7.5 billion

Population 2100 only 2 (TWO) billion


This is breath taking hot stuff

M_B_S

[Bas]

Nice find MBS! I'm just scanning it now, but I have a hunch this report is going to be a classic here.

[thuja]

Yes very good stuff. This mirrors my belief that it will take abut 100 years to get the population back to equilibrium. It also describes a period of unmitigated Hell in the middle decades of this century...upwards of 100 million excess deasths each year. That, compared to 10 million excess deaaths during World War II. A brutal but very likely future.

[diemos]

There was a show called sliders which had the protagonists leaping to alternate realities every episode. I remember one episode in which there were ATMs that would give anyone as much money as they wanted. The catch was that each dollar bill was an entry in a lottery and if your ticket won you were executed. How about that for a method of managing die-off.

[Cobra_Strike]

Somehow...I am not convinced it will take that long. No more then a month of serious disruption would cut off water to major population centers.

[Tanada]

http://paulchefurka.com/WEAP/WEAP.pdf

Thesis:

Oil export stop 2013

Peak energy 2020

Peak Homo Sapiens 2020 @ 7.5 billion

Population 2100 only 2 (TWO) billion


This is breath taking hot stuff

M_B_S

His conclusion that world wide we won't build more than a handfull of fission reactors in any one year is a rather creative interpretation of historical data don't you think? Both France and the USA individually were building more than that in the 70's. But the whole world together won't. Like I said, creative interpretation of historical data.

[Tyler_JC]

I agree Tanada. The argument that we won't have the industrial capacity to build more than a half dozen nuclear plants per year is utterly fallacious. Just think about how much cement is being used to produce office buildings and football stadiums.

Is anyone actually arguing that we are going to keep building new football stadiums in a world of energy shortages instead of redirecting those resources to more profitable enterprises?

Not to mention the obivous fact that energy use and population growth are not related.

The countries with the highest energy use have declining populations and the countries with the lowest energy use have exploding populations.

Energy is NOT the limiting factor with regards to population levels.

Arable land and total food production might be that limit or in certain climates it might be water.

But cutting off 50% of America's energy would not lead to a massive population decline in the United States. An economic crisis? Sure. But a mass dieoff...I don't think so...

[Windmills]

Interesting energy interpretation. I've also noticed that water has only a weak correlation with agriculture. For instance, in the US, many of the places that receive heavy rainfall are less important to agriculture than a number of other places that receive little to no rainfall. Therefore, I can conclude that water is not that important.

I think the picture is not quite as simple as you'd like to make it and that, in reality, energy is quite important to growing and sustaining a large population. The cultural population dynamics of affluent nations is just one point you might want to reconsider.

[thuja]

I agree Tanada. The argument that we won't have the industrial capacity to build more than a half dozen nuclear plants per year is utterly fallacious. Just think about how much cement is being used to produce office buildings and football stadiums.

Is anyone actually arguing that we are going to keep building new football stadiums in a world of energy shortages instead of redirecting those resources to more profitable enterprises?

Not to mention the obivous fact that energy use and population growth are not related.

The countries with the highest energy use have declining populations and the countries with the lowest energy use have exploding populations.

Energy is NOT the limiting factor with regards to population levels.

Arable land and total food production might be that limit or it certain climates it might be water.

But cutting off 50% of America's energy would not lead to a massive population decline in the United States. An economic crisis? Sure. But a mass dieoff...I don't think so...

Actually his treatise is quite moderate compared to most folks on this board who posit a radical die-off happening in a mere decade or two. His stance is it will take about 4 generations before we return to population equilibrium of about one quarter of the population today.

He also is not a throw in the towel guy. He advocates continued efforts towards reducing fertility- the best option for mankind. He is hopeful for developing seeds of a more lasting and sustainable civilization after this one burns away.

But if you say these problems can be solved by fission reactors, I would say there are so many limiting factors right now, that if you plug one hole, a dozen more will appear. You say we can build nuclear plants like the Chinese build toys. But fossil fuels are required for fertilizer, pesticides and industrial agriculture. They are at the root of the Green revolution, which will simply collapse without massive inputs of fossil fuels.

Then you have climate change, altering the landscape before our eyes with droughts, rising sea levels, storms and fires. This will only increase with time, even if we take draconian actions.

For limiting factors you can choose water, arable land, minerals, peak coal and nat. gas.

And then you can examine how nations will react to dramatic loss of resources on a global scale. Wars are raging right now over these very issues.

How can you look at all this data and then simply say...but we'll just build nuke reactors and we'll be fine?