[Tanada]

Weeds are not Entropy, weeds take CO2 and organize it into complex carbohydrates in the form of Cellulose.

[Ibon]

Hence so much rhetoric about 'sustainable growth'- pixie dust, but the mantra allows the profit motive to continue.

In times of abundance the profit motive was adaptive and self reinforcing as the growth juggernaut went into overdrive. There were no feedbacks to stop it except pixie dust rhetoric.

Something a bit more concrete than rhetoric seems to be required, eh?

[onlooker]

"We'll keep doing what we do until we can't... ...and then we won't." -- James Kunstler

[MonteQuest]

That recalls Montequest, so persistent and consistent in his mantra of overshoot based on ecological principles in turn based on the laws of physics, biology and chemistry. Why did not humanity listen to the scientists and science from which all of this may have been avoided. After all, is not ultimately Science their to teach us and give us some wisdom in managing our affairs.

It's nice to know I carved a niche in the Peak Oil discussion that has lasted some 11 years. When I wrote this thread those many years ago, I struggled to see just where man's reaction would eventually lead us. Today, I am even more perplexed. Many of the scenarios that have played out over the years were never envisioned. We see oil production rising somewhat with low prices, after watching shale oil production increase with high prices. Many posit that those with spare capacity are pumping full out just to maintain their budgets, or to drive the oil shale companies out of business. Perhaps both are taking place, but moreover, the oil glut has taken many people's minds totally off the concept of peak oil entirely, paving the way for it to come like a thief in the night.

Science and the facts don't poll high enough to be included in most debates that involve "progress." It all comes back to the Tragedy of the Commons; individuals act independently and rationally according to their own self-interest, which is most often contrary to the best interests of the many.

One thing I know for sure; we can never know how the monkeys will react until they do.

[ennui2]

Monte, I would have expected you to pivot your rhetoric away from peak-oil per se and more to a general limits-to-growth mantra with an emphasis on AGW, since that is something that is still seizing the headlines (albeit with conservatives firmly rooted in denial still, despite the Pope's conversion, etc...)

So I don't think it's fair to say the public is totally clueless when it comes to limits-to-growth. I think those who are clued into AGW and ecological collapse are currently at the bargaining stage (i.e. technofix).

[MonteQuest]

So I don't think it's fair to say the public is totally clueless when it comes to limits-to-growth.

They are clueless about most things. 18% of Americans think the sun revolves around the Earth. When asked to name a country that starts with the letter U, the most common response was Europe.

And as long as The Tragedy of the Commons is relevant, it matters little. Are you familiar with Garret Hardin's piece? How do you see a collective awareness ever overcoming it?

[Lore]

And as long as The Tragedy of the Commons is relevant, it matters little. Are you familiar with Garret Hardin's piece? How do you see a collective awareness ever overcoming it?

I agree, they won't see it it coming and ignore it till it hits them. We still have fairly intelligent people on here that are aware, but are still whistling past the graveyard.

[ennui2]

And as long as The Tragedy of the Commons is relevant, it matters little. Are you familiar with Garret Hardin's piece? How do you see a collective awareness ever overcoming it?

I agree, they won't see it it coming and ignore it till it hits them. We still have fairly intelligent people on here that are aware, but are still whistling past the graveyard.

I think the part of the public that has brain cells clue in to the point of the bargaining stage.

You know, the Graeme contingent who can't let go of the idea that we can always innovate our way out of it.

The poster-child for this is Elon Musk, someone I'm rooting for while I don't think he or anything he'll do will "save" us, only maybe soften the blow for the developed world.

[AdamB]

In a post-peak world, we know things are going to change and change dramatically. But, how fast will the onset of peak-oil be? Who, and what will be affected first. As you all know, I see the airlines as the “canary in the mineshaft.” This will start a domino affect reaching out to the parcel carriers, aerospace industries, tourism, travel agencies, hotels, motels, restaurants, cruise ships, theme parks and many other forms of recreation. Fewer tourists mean fewer dollars and fewer dollars means loss of jobs in places where the tourist dollar is the primary source of income. Delivering mail, transporting raw materials to manufacturers and sending products bought over the Internet are just some of the everyday transactions that will take more time and money as carriers downsize and put fewer planes in the sky.

Leisure oil use activities will surely be hurt, especially the recreational vehicle industry. The demand for motorhomes, jet-skis, off-road vehicles, pleasure boats, snowmobiles, ATV’s, (motorcycles may be a growth industry, though) private airplanes, and the biggest industry of all—racing—will drop dramatically as shortages occur and fuel costs rise. Think of all the industries that racing and recreational vehicles supports: helmets, insurance, auto parts/repairs, etc, etc. Bottom line; a lot of people’s jobs are going to disappear almost overnight. It won’t be just about paying more for gas and using less as a lot of people think. Post-peak oil prices will start a pandemic that will spread throughout our economy like a wildfire fanned by a strong wind.

What will governments do? Will oil go to the highest bidder? Will we see countries like China, Japan, and the US competing for oil to meet their growing economies? Or will we see the US taking the oil by military force? Will there be hoarding? Will conflict we create exacerbate the crisis that peak-oil will cause? These are all questions with few answers.

Bumped into this revived thread, realized it had been started quite some time ago...and wondered....isn't it amazing that no one was figuring real crude and gasoline prices at 1970's levels again, and the Saudi's being forced to fight for market share with the US independents? Or the US independents having found and brought on the largest producing oil fields in the western hemisphere at this point in time? Profitable airlines? Private planes still flying, record car sales, not only is it NOT about paying more for gas and using less, its more like 1986 where its about finding new ways or burn all the stuff, back then we invented SUVs, now our cars are being forced to become more efficient, and it might take like half a decade to cycle through enough efficient machines and replace them with monster trucks and SUVs to soak up supply enough to cause prices to normalize...say...$50/bbl?

And post peak prices are certainly starting a pandemic...SUV and car buying for starters, and the new supply is US based, so we don't even have to invade folks to get it, just pony up leasing costs to landowners and drill a well somewhere in North Dakota or Texas.

The only people who really pitched out an idea covering this that I can remember from way back when was Simmons and Deffeyes. They bought figured, and said, near the end of their respective books that once we made it through the initial post peak hump, that the dawn of new technologies and enlightened folk who had made it to the other side would make us happier and wiser and whatnot, a sort of "New Morning" idea. But I'm not even sure that idea included fuel so cheap that we need to invent new ways to waste it, or can go back to buying monster trucks.

[AgentR11]

"no one" would be a false statement. My position has pretty much always been, that demand destruction is not a problem, rather it is the solution. That it would work iteratively, price goes up; inefficient uses get deleted, price falls, some loose uses resume but not all, baseline needs gradually fill in, price rises again, more inefficient and superfluous uses get deleted, price falls. Rinse, repeat.

OTOH, prices will NOT normalize, once the TRC pulled the plug on controls long ago, supply and demand became fully in control, and their long response times guarantee large swings in price. In short, there is no "normal" price. There is only a normal supply/demand/price model.

As to replacing "efficient machines with SUV's"; not really happening since SUV's are reasonably efficient now. Someone going from a Sedan to a regular SUV will not burn that much more fuel; so don't expect demand changes from that side. I'd look more towards folks in India and China buying their FIRST cars and trucks. Going from a 50mpg scooter to a 20mpg car/truck WITH air conditioning.. for hundreds of millions of people could make a huge impact on the demand side, but its a slow process.

So.. a few monster trucks? Nah.
300,000,000+ new/first time ICE car owners. Dat's the ticket.

As to "New Morning" tech and enlightenment? fantasy.

[Pops]

But I'm not even sure that idea included fuel so cheap that we need to invent new ways to waste it, or can go back to buying monster trucks.

You are mistaking a blip with a trend.

At most there is 150B bbls of tight oil.

The world consumes 35B bbls year.

[MonteQuest]

And post peak prices are certainly starting a pandemic...SUV and car buying for starters, and the new supply is US based, so we don't even have to invade folks to get it, just pony up leasing costs to landowners and drill a well somewhere in North Dakota or Texas.

Post peak? Maybe with regard to conventional oil, but not all liquids. We still import 8 mbpd--so much for US independence. Did we anticipate that interest rates would go to zero and facilitate massive investment in fracking? No. Did we anticipate that OPEC would continue to fuel the glut to meet budget outlays? No. Did we anticipate oil consumption in the US would drop from a 25 mbpd projection to 19 mbpd while production increased. No.

It isn't "amazing" that no one figured on such a scenario. We didn't know how the monkeys would react. It was scenario that was hard to foresee, but all these factors have just provided a short hiatus from the pandemic to come. Will we find more ways to kick the can down the road? Perhaps. But the piper will be paid. Just now, the payment will be much higher.

What you are saying is that we haven't learned anything from all this volatility. Cornucopians have won.

Good luck with that mindset.

[AdamB]

But I'm not even sure that idea included fuel so cheap that we need to invent new ways to waste it, or can go back to buying monster trucks.

You are mistaking a blip with a trend.

At most there is 150B bbls of tight oil.

The world consumes 35B bbls year.

EIA study puts it around 340+ recoverable I believe. The real issue is, just as it was in the US, how much does oil have to cost before the next "revolution" kicks into gear.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=14431

[AdamB]

And post peak prices are certainly starting a pandemic...SUV and car buying for starters, and the new supply is US based, so we don't even have to invade folks to get it, just pony up leasing costs to landowners and drill a well somewhere in North Dakota or Texas.

Post peak? Maybe with regard to conventional oil, but not all liquids. We still import 8 mbpd--so much for US independence. Did we anticipate that interest rates would go to zero and facilitate massive investment in fracking? No. Did we anticipate that OPEC would continue to fuel the glut to meet budget outlays? No. Did we anticipate oil consumption in the US would drop from a 25 mbpd projection to 19 mbpd while production increased. No.

Well..I guess that it is fortunate that organizations like the EIA and IEA didn't fall for only decline, all decline, all the time then? Not sure I'm thrilled with the idea that economists know better how resource development plays out, but they do have the resources and expertise to have known some of those things were about to happen I guess.

It isn't "amazing" that no one figured on such a scenario. We didn't know how the monkeys would react. It was scenario that was hard to foresee, but all these factors have just provided a short hiatus from the pandemic to come. Will we find more ways to kick the can down the road? Perhaps. But the piper will be paid. Just now, the payment will be much higher.

What you are saying is that we haven't learned anything from all this volatility. Cornucopians have won.

Good luck with that mindset.

I don't know if cornucopians have any more to do with volatility than peak oil does, but certainly consumers might learn something, buying into the many peak oil transport based solutions available for the cheap right now, with the low prices that oversupply has wrought.

[ennui2]

Well..I guess that it is fortunate that organizations like the EIA and IEA didn't fall for only decline, all decline, all the time then? Not sure I'm thrilled with the idea that economists know better how resource development plays out, but they do have the resources and expertise to have known some of those things were about to happen I guess.

Yes, I remember the most popular graphics were those charts that had a big wedge for unconventional taking up the slack and everyone swearing up and down that unconventional flow rates and ROI would not be able to pull it off. Well, so far it has. How much longer, we don't know, but so far it has vindicated those charts. The wedge for future discoveries, though, that one is pie in the sky.

[Tanada]

In a post-peak world, we know things are going to change and change dramatically. But, how fast will the onset of peak-oil be? Who, and what will be affected first. As you all know, I see the airlines as the “canary in the mineshaft.” This will start a domino affect reaching out to the parcel carriers, aerospace industries, tourism, travel agencies, hotels, motels, restaurants, cruise ships, theme parks and many other forms of recreation. Fewer tourists mean fewer dollars and fewer dollars means loss of jobs in places where the tourist dollar is the primary source of income. Delivering mail, transporting raw materials to manufacturers and sending products bought over the Internet are just some of the everyday transactions that will take more time and money as carriers downsize and put fewer planes in the sky.

Leisure oil use activities will surely be hurt, especially the recreational vehicle industry. The demand for motorhomes, jet-skis, off-road vehicles, pleasure boats, snowmobiles, ATV’s, (motorcycles may be a growth industry, though) private airplanes, and the biggest industry of all—racing—will drop dramatically as shortages occur and fuel costs rise. Think of all the industries that racing and recreational vehicles supports: helmets, insurance, auto parts/repairs, etc, etc. Bottom line; a lot of people’s jobs are going to disappear almost overnight. It won’t be just about paying more for gas and using less as a lot of people think. Post-peak oil prices will start a pandemic that will spread throughout our economy like a wildfire fanned by a strong wind.

What will governments do? Will oil go to the highest bidder? Will we see countries like China, Japan, and the US competing for oil to meet their growing economies? Or will we see the US taking the oil by military force? Will there be hoarding? Will conflict we create exacerbate the crisis that peak-oil will cause? These are all questions with few answers.

More importantly IMO, what will be the first domino to fall and start the chain reaction?

[MonteQuest]

Yes, I remember the most popular graphics were those charts that had a big wedge for unconventional taking up the slack and everyone swearing up and down that unconventional flow rates and ROI would not be able to pull it off. Well, so far it has.

Only because demand destruction has dropped projected consumption from 110mbpd to 96mbpd. Otherwise, demand would be exceeding supply. And now, the low ROI is going to shutter much of that production.

[MonteQuest]

More importantly IMO, what will be the first domino to fall and start the chain reaction?

Today, the stock market opened with the biggest drop since 1932. Debt defaults look like the most likely culprit to be the first domino. Can't use low interest rates to check it. Print more money? Blow the bubble bigger?

[Subjectivist]

More importantly IMO, what will be the first domino to fall and start the chain reaction?

Today, the stock market opened with the biggest drop since 1932. Debt defaults look like the most likely culprit to be the first domino. Can't use low interest rates to check it. Print more money? Blow the bubble bigger?

To inflate by printing more money they would have to give the new money directly to J6P who would spend it stimulating the economy. Since 2008 they have printed a lot, but always given it to the upper level who sits on it instead of spending.

[dolanbaker]

More importantly IMO, what will be the first domino to fall and start the chain reaction?

Today, the stock market opened with the biggest drop since 1932. Debt defaults look like the most likely culprit to be the first domino. Can't use low interest rates to check it. Print more money? Blow the bubble bigger?

To inflate by printing more money they would have to give the new money directly to J6P who would spend it stimulating the economy. Since 2008 they have printed a lot, but always given it to the upper level who sits on it instead of spending.

I thought that they were spending it on commodities, thus driving up their costs for everyone else.


Putting (£/$/€)10,000 into every taxpayer's account would give the economy quite a boost, I'd draw the line at giving it to the long term unemployed though(the won't work), but would give a reduced amount to pensioners & children.