kiwichick wrote:chinese gdp 9.1%
Down from 9.5% in the previous quarter.
You can only collapse but so fast and this thread is about changes in the rate of collapse being cumulative. Please stop trying to derail it.
kiwichick wrote:chinese gdp 9.1%
evilgenius wrote:I take it that though you are providing a Yemeni example the feedback you are talking about is also something you are seeing where you are? Is that Hong Kong?
MonteQuest wrote:In a post-peak world, we know things are going to change and change dramatically. But, how fast will the onset of peak-oil be? Who, and what will be affected first. As you all know, I see the airlines as the “canary in the mineshaft.” This will start a domino affect reaching out to the parcel carriers, aerospace industries, tourism, travel agencies, hotels, motels, restaurants, cruise ships, theme parks and many other forms of recreation. Fewer tourists mean fewer dollars and fewer dollars means loss of jobs in places where the tourist dollar is the primary source of income. Delivering mail, transporting raw materials to manufacturers and sending products bought over the Internet are just some of the everyday transactions that will take more time and money as carriers downsize and put fewer planes in the sky.
Leisure oil use activities will surely be hurt, especially the recreational vehicle industry. The demand for motorhomes, jet-skis, off-road vehicles, pleasure boats, snowmobiles, ATV’s, (motorcycles may be a growth industry, though) private airplanes, and the biggest industry of all—racing—will drop dramatically as shortages occur and fuel costs rise. Think of all the industries that racing and recreational vehicles supports: helmets, insurance, auto parts/repairs, etc, etc. Bottom line; a lot of people’s jobs are going to disappear almost overnight. It won’t be just about paying more for gas and using less as a lot of people think. Post-peak oil prices will start a pandemic that will spread throughout our economy like a wildfire fanned by a strong wind.
What will governments do? Will oil go to the highest bidder? Will we see countries like China, Japan, and the US competing for oil to meet their growing economies? Or will we see the US taking the oil by military force? Will there be hoarding? Will conflict we create exacerbate the crisis that peak-oil will cause? These are all questions with few answers.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
AgentR11 wrote:I think it just did, at least with regard to the last paragraph. The US, EU, China and tagalong Japan just competed for priority access to Russia's gas and oil and grain... and we lost.
Won't hurt for a while, but its a done deal. When Russia has to choose between selling to the EU or selling to China at some eventual point in the future; the grain, oil, and gas will go to China, even possibly at a slight discount.
Whats been more intersting is how the cap on oil prices has played out because consumers are much more sensitive to price in their non-essential energy usage than expected. That'll make the play out take longer, but be much more jittery along the way.
As to jobs... well.
EMRATIO
It can't be hidden.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
ROCKMAN wrote:"...but as we have bumped along the plateau for most of the last decade I see less and less forward thinking." Actually there has been intense forward thinking especially by the US pubcos. The question is how you define that forward time span. For China it's probably much closer to decades. For many US pubcos it's been quarter to quarter. You've seen my posts before: the oil patch wasn't caught with its pants down by the price collapse. Again: almost all senior pubco management has been through at least 2 boom/bust cycles. Why would they expect this last boom to be any different? That's exactly why the pubcos borrowed so much capex: to drill as much as possible as fast as possible to increase the value of their stock and options as fast as possible. Virtually everyone of us old fart managers understood that this was going to be our last rodeo: none of us will be here when the next boom arrives.
I find it very funny that so many who call us lying bastards are just as ready to call us shortsighted. We aren't short sighted...we all knew the bust was coming. We are lying bastards that have reaped great rewards as we are checking out. LOL. Except for the Rockman, of course. Not the lying bastard part...that's true. But the checking out part: last week a vendor asked me about retiring since I'll be 65 next spring. I told him hell no: I plan to work until my MS kills me...or if something worse happens. Being a fellow old fart I didn't have to explain what that meant. LOL.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Tanada wrote:The dominoes are all set to fall in rapid succession and here we are with little tremors and rising winds threatening to start the change reaction.
kanon wrote:Tanada wrote:The dominoes are all set to fall in rapid succession and here we are with little tremors and rising winds threatening to start the change reaction.
I would like an analogy different from dominoes. I don't see a succession of events leaving everything fallen. I imagine more partial failures, with many people believing things can be restored and others not that badly affected It is always possible that fossil fuels could be no longer available due to war, natural disaster, etc. Perhaps crop failures will be the first cause of a system shutdown or perhaps a financial crisis. I think the largest failure area will not be any "system" or technology, but rather the inept social engineering by the handlers -- we simply will not know what to do or how to cope because it was not on TV.
ennui2 wrote:I think it's the failure of humanity to develop holistic thinking. We reach at simple conclusions instead. And so we'll continue playing whack-a-mole.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
SeaGypsy wrote:Science is like everything else, a business. Drawing the most leverage where is the most profit. Business & growth always come first, science which gets in the way will naturally be dismissed. Hence so much rhetoric about 'sustainable growth'- pixie dust, but the mantra allows the profit motive to continue.
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