[idiom]

It has to hurt to see people making graphs of how wrong you are.

[Novus]

Yergin must have saw this video of himself back in 1979 that we dug up a few weeks back. May I present the real Yergin:

[video width=425 height=355]http://www.youtube.com/v/ez9TRtXu8rQ&hl=en[/video]

[EnergyUnlimited]

What the - Yergin Sees $150 Oil!

That is a cornucopian view.

[TheDude]

That graph's old news around here. For all you s, a 'Yergin' is actually $38/bbl, or the price that CERA's Daniel Yergin said that oil would be in late 2005 in an article dated November 2004. Someone needs to add that to his Wiki entry! July 13 is Daniel Yergin Day,too. Burn a few precious hydrocarbons in his name.
You get Hubbert in that video, too. Crotchety old bastard! I've a friend who knows his grandson, a talented musical instrument maker who's a bit of a flake - stares for hours at a piece of wood thinking about how to shape it into something.

Well, since Yergin's forecasts aren't too accurate, maybe this means oil will finally go down.

If only.

Oil at this level is a bad sign for the U.S. economy. In January, Daniel Yergin of Cambridge Energy Research Associates estimated that oil prices would have to average $100 to $120 a barrel for six months to a year in order for higher prices to have the same kind of impact on the economy that the oil shocks of the 1970s did.

Don't think Yergin's going to go all finite resources on us. Undoubtedly he'll start yammering about good ol' above ground factors and such.

[dinopello]

If you can't beat'em, join'em ?

Oh, Danny Boy!

[hironegro]

It's pure speculation.

[whereagles]

LOL

time to re-gauge our Yergin-buck-'o-meters

[dorlomin]

Does anyone else think he is trying to buy some credibility by going with the market? That he has had no moment on the road to Demascus but instead figures this is a bubble and go with it on the up so as not to become more of a lauging stock...

[seahorse]

Interesting, he says the price will rise primarily bc lack of supply and doesn't blame the usual culprits: "speculators" and the "terrorism" premium.

[pup55]

He is no different from the rest of us, he just got tired of being wrong. Or, probably more likely, some of his consulting customers got tired of him being wrong, and so he had to flip to the dark side to keep from starving.

A few more of these guys capitulate and turn bullish, and we will have ourselves a nice little stampede, if we do not already.

[MD]

Given his track record, you can now assume oil will be back to $50 very soon.

[seahorse]

I don't know, apparently Yergin and GS, who have now joined "the club" and are predicting high oil prices, aren't aware of all the oil that Oilfinder2 has been finding and producing here on this forum. If they only knew, then, they may get back to predicting a drop in oil prices to $30 a barrel.

[frankthetank]

So this guy gets a pay check for these crappy forecasts he makes? Sign my ass up.

I hear you Seahorse. Those 2 should get in touch and open an oil digging/refining company. Maybe they can get matching outfits.

[joeltrout]

I know you all dont like Yergin too much but have you read The Prize cover to cover? It is by far the best historical overview of the oil industry. Many of you could gain some valuable insight into the industry if you have not read the book. For those of you that have read the Prize then you know how valuable it is even if you disagree with Yergins predictions.

[Peepers]

He may know a lot about the oil industry's past, but he sure doesn't seem to know much about its future.

If he's predicting $150 oil, then I'm ducking-and-covering in anticipation of much worse!!

[Windmills]

Wall Street Journal May 7, 2008
The world's safety cushion -- the amount of readily available oil that could be pumped in a moment of crisis -- is now around two million barrels a day, according to most estimates. That's just 2.3% of daily demand, and nearly all of the safety cushion is in one country, Saudi Arabia. Everyone else is pretty much pumping all they can, which makes the world vulnerable to political or other shocks.

That's frightening. Only one country in the entire world has any spare capacity, and that country is not known for its transparency.

[TheDude]

I know you all dont like Yergin too much but have you read The Prize cover to cover?

Yeah, the Old Testament of oil. Spindletop begat East Texas, which begat Prudhoe...

It is by far the best historical overview of the oil industry. Many of you could gain some valuable insight into the industry if you have not read the book. For those of you that have read the Prize then you know how valuable it is even if you disagree with Yergins predictions.

I reviewed it in brief (favorably) here last week: The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power. Quite the monumental achievement, whatever else you think of the guy.

[sameu]

If the King of the cornucopians is calling for $150 in the future, it's time to bug out. Seriously.

indeed it is

[AlCzervik]

Somebody put together a pic of the Kenneth Deffeyes cornucopian cemetery and add Yergin.

And I have plots reserved for Daniel Yergin, Michael Lynch, and Thomas Ahlbrandt. They can sign up anytime that they are ready to admit that the peak has arrived.

[url=http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events-05-11.html]link[/url=

[shortonoil]

"It's not that the genie is out of the bottle -- it's that 100 genies are out of the bottle," said Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Normally known for optimistic forecasts of lowering oil prices, Mr. Yergin's firm now says the price could rise to $150 a barrel this year.

“100 genies”, with this I assume he means 100 above ground factors. Of course it couldn’t be geology or thermodynamics or anything of that ilk. Mr. Yergin flunked physics 101, so he must recourse to something that he can get this rather petrified brain wrapped around.

That's frightening. Only one country in the entire world has any spare capacity, and that country is not known for its transparency.

That sounds like a Yergin comment! We don’t know anything about the country’s capacity because they don’t tell us anything about their capacity, but they have spare capacity. No wonder he missed last year’s estimate by 3.34 Yergins.