[basil_hayden]

We (Americans) have become the stupidest fucks ever.

I can't believe this bullcrap congressional genocide declaration.

If I were Turkish, I'd get my congress together and make a declaration that 200 years ago, Americans participated in the greatest genocidal event ever - by eliminating something like 99% (just a guess) of all native Americans.

The US Congress can't pass a coherent bill on spending control, health care, immigration, social security, etc but they have all day to discuss this baloney? It's unbelievable.

[WhatMeWorry]

Were you just talking to my wife? That is exactly what we were saying to each other. Who are we (the USA) and what does that have to do with the price of tea in China? Let's do a study to see who else we can piss off and with as little effort as possible.

[Ferretlover]

HHHmmm... This afternoon, CNN International had a brief item on this situation. The reporter said that the U.S. ships 31 percent of its fuel for the troops through Turkish lands and 70 percent of its personnel & supplies fly thruough Turkish air space..
Now just why would the Congress want to p*ss off Turkey and possibly lose those supply options??...HHmmm..?

[DantesPeak]

HHHmmm... This afternoon, CNN International had a brief item on this situation. The reporter said that the U.S. ships 31 percent of its fuel for the troops through Turkish lands and 70 percent of its personnel & supplies fly thruough Turkish air space..
Now just why would the Congress want to p*ss off Turkey and possibly lose those supply options??...HHmmm..?

Some may be flabbergasted to know that in 2003 Congress debated giving Turkey about $17 billion in write offs and gifts, plus another $10 billion in some type of loan program. The plan was called off by Turkey, not Congress - which appeared ready to grant the aid at that time.

Things have certainly changed in Congress in four years, but from one extreme to the other.

[Madpaddy]

Basil wrote,

If I were Turkish, I'd get my congress together and make a declaration that 200 years ago, Americans participated in the greatest genocidal event ever - by eliminating something like 99% (just a guess) of all native Americans.

Yes, and while we are at it, I would like Iran to apologise to Greece and by extension the entire Western world for the invasions of 2,500 years ago. Mongolia must also be forced to apologise for that nast Khan family who caused no end of trouble.

Furthermore, I want Italy to apologise to Ireland for the fact that the Romans did not consider us worth invading thereby depriving modern Ireland of interesting ruins and straight roads.

On behalf of modern man I would like to apologise to the Neanderthals who we almost wiped out thousands of years ago. Fortunately, one survived and lives in a large white building in Washington DC.

[pup55]

Turkey and Kurdistan

To summarize:

1. There are more Kurds in Turkey than there are in Kurdistan.

2. If the Kurds get their own country, they are afraid that the Kurds in southern Turkey will want to cecede and join them. They would really like to go into Kurdistan, which is now Iraq, and clear out any rebels who have been crossing the border to attack them.

3. Turkey is a NATO member, so is supposed to be our ally.

4. There is a lot of oil in Kurdistan, but not too much in Turkey.

I think it's more about politics than it is about oil at the moment, but any spark over there has the potential to cause a lot of problems.

[Carlhole]

It's not that complicated.

Turkey was salvaged from the remnants of the Ottoman Empire after WWII. The Ottomans had sided with Germany. The Ottomans had loosely reigned over vast territories and a multitude of different ethnic groups under the Caliphate, the Supreme Islamic Ruler. But they all wanted to split away, after the war, from their old Ottoman masters and achieve their own sovereignty. The Kurds and the Armenians were a couple of these that happened to live next door to the old Ottoman homeland, modern day Turkey.

Through his incredible political and miltary skills, Atta Turk managed to form the secular country of Turkey and sought to align it solidly with Europe (especially France whom Atta Turk greatly admired). And he tried to fundamentally change the society towards a more European oriented one, changing key things like the national languange, the alphabet, the calendar, religious de-emphasis, etc. Many fervent Islamists hated this and many non-Turk ethnic groups greatly resisted being incorporated into Turkey and the dominant ethnic group there - The Turks.

In the news right now is the House Bill that would recognize the genocide of the Armenians. They were located in Eastern Turkey, to the North of the Kurds and they were considered ungovernable and treasonous by the Turks, so the Turks drove them out of their homelands on a long Death March upon which millions died.

The Kurds were spared the Armenian fate but they were persecuted severely and made into second-class citizens in Turkey. They were prevented from practicing their religion and their customs and they were forced to wear clothing approved by the Turkish authorities. Despite the success of Atta Turk, the internal dynamics of Turkey were extremely unstable and the country changed government's incredibly often. Mostly, military, authoritarian, Conservative, pro-business, pro-European military governments would come back into power after each period of liberalism proved that the people were too restless and dissatisfied for the country to hang together properly without an iron-fist in control of everythin. The Kurds were always one of the big components of this popular instability.

The Kurds are a very ancient Arian group that drifted down from the north a few thousand years ago or more. Their original religion is now defunct (I can't recall it) and they are now Sunni Islamic. For centuries, they have yearned for own state. They live in SouthWest Turkey, Northern Iraq and Western Iran. All three of those states do not want the Kurds to have their own autonomy because they would have to relinguish territory to them. They have each suppressed the Kurds terribly form time to time. And the Kurds have fought with each of those states ferociously but with limited means.

The Kurds have been caught more than once in the chess game of international politics and in the contest between Central Asian powers and the West. They have been used and betrayed by Western powers on several tragic occasions when the West has turned it's back on them after employing them as soldiers and mercenaries but subsequently has allowed them to be slaughtered by their Iranian, Iraqi or Turkish overlords. So they don't trust anybody anymore. Apparently, they are pretty good guerrilla fighters but they don't have any wealth or major arms.

With the events of the Iraq War, the Kurds have got a glimmer of opportunity. And so there has been pressure building once again for them to rebel against Turkey and Iran and to form their own state in Northern Iraq. They have a virtual Kurdish state there now and the Turks don't like it at all because much of the Turkish population in the South is Kurdish - and they are all beginning to clamor for indepence once again. They hate the Turks.

And, of course, there is oil in Northern Iraq where the Kurds reside. This immense prospect has the Kurds frothing at the mouth now for their own state.

It's impossible for an American reader of these events to know all the subtleties and flavors and minute history of ethnic, religious competition. And there is probably a whole lot more to the story. But that's the history book synopsis.

[Laughs_Last]

He barely mentions the Kurds, but the War Nerd did an article on Turkey's military history a couple years ago: Glory to the Turks! It might be helpful as background information.

[Triffin]

The Kurds are a very ancient Arian group that drifted down from the north a few thousand years ago or more. Their original religion is now defunct (I can't recall it) and they are now Sunni Islamic. For centuries, they have yearned for own state. They live in SouthWest Turkey, Northern Iraq and Western Iran. All three of those states do not want the Kurds to have their own autonomy because they would have to relinguish territory to them


We ( the US ) should help them get their own country ..
They'd respect us for it and would prolly sell us some oil ..
Win .. Win ..
We'd have to pay off the Turks but Iran and Iraq would get over it

Triff ..

[Carlhole]

We ( the US ) should help them get their own country ..

They'd respect us for it and would prolly sell us some oil ..
Win .. Win .. We'd have to pay off the Turks but Iran and Iraq would get over it

Triff ..

I made this point a while back. It still seems to make sense given the impossible situation in Iraq.

http://www.peakoil.com/gate.html?name=F ... e&p=390942

The Kurds are mostly Sunni. They are (I think) the world's biggest unique ethnic population who do not have their own state and they have been fighting for their own state for God knows how long.

Iran doesn't want them to have a state nor does Turkey. But, what the hell, why don't the PTB just divide Iraq into a Sunni North and a Shia South? - in other words, lump the Arab Sunnis in with the Kurdish Sunnis, that way they would share a piece of the oil pie together in a new Kurdistan or Mosul or something.

The US could bring pressure to bear on Turkey and Iran to go along with it. The US could get a couple of bases established in the new state and stay there and sit on things.

The Shia get their own state in the south.

No?

A big fat American presence in Kurdistan could prevent an ethnic civil war from breaking out in Turkey. The US would gain some badly needed fightin' motherfuckers too who would be much better able to navigate the cultural and ethnic intracasies of that piece of the Middle East.

Those Kurds could be a hell of an ally against Iran. Given weapons and organization, (and US air force and intelligence support!) I think the Kurds would probably seriously whip Iranian and Shite ass.

And even if the Shias controlled the territory to the south, they'd pretty much have to toe the US line with a big fucking military base sitting right there to the north of them.

Also, the US could begin employing more economic tactics to encourage cooperation. That would tend to bring peace to the whole region.

But what do I know? I'm no George W. Bush, brilliant military strategist, neocon pus-bag.

[americandream]

Iraqi oil is largely in Iraqi Kurdistan

[zoidberg]

While Turkey's interests in the region go much further into the past than oil politics, I can't help but that think Turkey's primary calculation nowadays is that if they can annex/conquer Iraqi Kurdistan they can bag 2 big birds. Removing a staging area for their Kurdish rebels and secure the big fields around Kirkuk. If it was just a matter of silencing Kurdish rebels they'd carry on with fight exclusively on their own territory, but now that the US has irrevocably and terminally damaged the Iraqi federal state, I think they're thinking of resurrecting parts of the Ottoman empire. Turkey's energy strategy is to become a vital energy transport route - if they can actually supply some of the energy into those central routes - well thats some good synergy. And money. And power.

The only thing thats holding them back is the American presence. So two things can happen.

1. American control over Iraqi Kurdistan weakens to the point where the Kurds stop pretending to be part of the central government and declare autonomy(independence?) over northern Iraq & Kirkuk. Turkey invades, but with US support(and everyone's really. The Kurds have it tough)

2. The Turks push in before that happens, and an awkward moment passes where we can listen Dubya sputter and pretend its a part of the plan. I rather look forward to it. They've already blinked over the Armenian thing - and that was some serious ass genocide too.

So yeah, the Turks are coming. The only question is it with or without US approval. I hope the Kurds have their IED's, stingers and RPGs ready to go, and I'm sure they do.

The collapse of Iraq into Somalia like failed state has created a dangerous power vacuum right in the heart of the middle east. Iran and Turkey have to be looking to grab the best slices while countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia have to be as eager to prevent their competitors gaining Iraq's abundant energy resources. So this Turkey/Kurdish part has to be looked at as a part of the whole regions changing power structure, due to the failed US invasion. On top of this of course, is peak oil which as time goes by puts an ever greater share of the world's oil wealth(And a greater share of its higher quality oil wealth too, I'd bet) thats invariably going to drag more foreign powers into the region backing their allies. At the moment it looks like Japan and China are riding with Iran. Russians are playing footsie with everyone. I'd bet they'd be just as happy to watch it muddle in the status quo for now - its making them money hand over fist. Israel is traumatized, paranoid and heavily armed. Don't know what they might do. Domestic politics plays a strong role, but its the international situation thats giving it the extra bite and relevance.

Another unknown variable are the Europeans. A Norwegian oil company started messing around the Kirkuk fields on authorization from the kurdish regional authorities. Also, Turkey and the EU are dancing around merging, which essentially takes the whole of Europe into the heart of this mess as well. I have zero proof of this but I'd bet France and Germany are quietly backing Turkey's play. The Baghdad Railway or the modern equivalent may be floating again.

[gg3]

Question: Is there sufficient land, water, and potential agricultural resources for the Kurds from Turkey to migrate into Iraqi Kurdistan?

If so, that could solve it for both the Kurds and for Turkey.

First, partition Iraq and formalize the northern territory as Kurdistan, and run it as a UN protectorate until the new situation has stabilized. One of the conditions of the Kurds obtaining a country would be (yes, if you know me you've already guessed this one) full legal and cultural equality for women.

Second, the new Kurdistan takes on immigration from Turkish Kurds subject to (yes, you probably guessed this one too) family planning & birth control. The goal being to prevent a situation where two populations share land formerly occupied by one, while maintaining their previous birth rates, thereby breeding themselves into a civil war in a couple of generations.

Thus what we would have, if this works, would be two populations merged into one geographic area, in such a way that the total population remains below the carrying capacity of its land.

Third, meanwhile the new Kurdistan would have also pledged to sign (and then signed) a mutual nonaggression pact with Turkey, and would have UN forces to call upon to help police its border so as to prevent its own subnational groups from conducting raids and incursions against Turkey. At the same time, the presence of that force would deter aggression from the Turkish side.

Fourth, the UN could also establish joint scientific and technical projects between Turkey and the new Kurdistan, and joint athletic endeavors, and other ventures that could have the effect of creating some positive bonds between individuals on both sides.

Fifth, if all of this is done right, the US comes out looking good to the Kurds, who in turn reward us with stable oil contracts.

Win/win/win all'round, and I don't see anyone losing from this deal. Or have I missed something (aside from the obvious point that humans, like chimps, often prefer to just screech and fling poo at each other)?

[eXpat]

Things getting hotter in the turkish border.link

Asked about world reaction to a possible incursion, Erdogan said: "After going down this route, its cost has already been calculated. Whatever the cost is, it will be met."

"When we make a decision, we take into account Turkey's interests."

[Carlhole]

It’s the Oil

Iraq is ‘unwinnable’, a ‘quagmire’, a ‘fiasco’: so goes the received opinion. But there is good reason to think that, from the Bush-Cheney perspective, it is none of these things. Indeed, the US may be ‘stuck’ precisely where Bush et al want it to be, which is why there is no ‘exit strategy’.

Iraq has 115 billion barrels of known oil reserves. That is more than five times the total in the United States. And, because of its long isolation, it is the least explored of the world’s oil-rich nations. A mere two thousand wells have been drilled across the entire country; in Texas alone there are a million. It has been estimated, by the Council on Foreign Relations, that Iraq may have a further 220 billion barrels of undiscovered oil; another study puts the figure at 300 billion. If these estimates are anywhere close to the mark, US forces are now sitting on one quarter of the world’s oil resources. The value of Iraqi oil, largely light crude with low production costs, would be of the order of $30 trillion at today’s prices. For purposes of comparison, the projected total cost of the US invasion/occupation is around $1 trillion...

This is the perspective on the Iraq War that I subscribe to. However, I would go even further and hypothesize that the 911 attacks were an important part of this big picture. And I would also include the current peaking of non-OPEC oil and the prospect of a peaking of world oil in the 2010-2020 timeframe as part of this big picture.

Back in 2001, I was wondering about about this sort of thing when, searching around on the web, I found Mike Ruppert's "FromTheWilderness" which pretty much laid out the whole geopolitical scenario. Wow, what a powerful set of thoughts it was back then.

It's funny how these ideas seem to become less and less fringe-ish as time goes on.

It makes wonder about statements such as we are seeing right now from General Ricardo Sanchez, so awfully critical of the conduct of the war and the planning for the aftermath of it. One wonders what you would learn if you could be a fly on the wall in Dick Cheney's office - maybe everything is going swimmingly according to him?

It's so hard to know for sure what's going on and so absorbingly interesting to watch this history unfold.

[toast]

You're all wrong. The US will never give up control of Iraqi Kurdistan's oil to Turkey or anyone else. This is our oil.

[Triffin]

You're all wrong. The US will never give up control of Iraqi Kurdistan's oil to Turkey or anyone else. This is our oil.


Sure. we grab the oil, but the best way to do it is through
a local democracy that's 'friendly' to the west ..

We're still witnessing the re rationalization of the old
Ottoman empire .. If we help the Kurds, they'll sell us
the oil or the right to develop the fields ..

There is no Iraq .. It's just some lines on a map without
regard to the ethnic/religious groups that live there ..
They can't even run/rule Baghdad together ..

If we facilitate the re rationalization of the region everyone wins ..
No civil wars or ethnic cleansing and the natural resources
get on the world markets ..

Everybody gets a seat at the table and a share of the revenues ..

LOL .. Or as stated by gg3 we continue to do what we do best ..
We probably don't even rate as humans ..

"aside from the obvious point that , like chimps, the pink monkeys
often prefer to just screech and fling poo at each other .."

Triff ..

[Keith_McClary]

[web]http://www.theoildrum.com/uploads/Khuzestan.gif[/web]

Click HERE for Larger Map

Also check out Juan Cole's Who Lost Turkey? (Scroll down to Friday, October 12, 2007)

Turkey has been the strongest ally that the United States has had in the Middle East since the end of WW II. The Marshall Plan started with Northern tier states like Turkey and Greece. Turkey joined NATO and was a key player in the American victory in the Cold War. As a secular government, Turkey stood against the rising tide of Muslim radicalism. To the extent that Turkey is moderating its long-term secular militancy, and moving toward fair elections, it may be providing a model for a moderate, democratic Middle East. Its economy is growing rapidly, foreign investment is in the billions. Turkey is in short, almost everything the US could have asked for in the Middle East.

But the Bush administration has, during the past five years, increasingly thrown away this asset, and now is in danger of losing a close and valued ally altogether.

[Keith_McClary]

We ( the US ) should help them get their own country ..
They'd respect us for it and would prolly sell us some oil ..
Win .. Win ..
We'd have to pay off the Turks but Iran and Iraq would get over it

Triff ..

I'm not sure Iraq would get over it since the Kurdish 10% of Iraq's population would get 50% of the oil.

Kurdistan would become the new Israel, or perhaps the new Saudi Arabia (not much difference in my mind, just another "America's staunchest ally").

(EDIT) Now that I think of it, both Israel & Saudi were created by the US for the same reason you propose creating Kurdistan. So maybe you will soon have the Kurds yanking your chain just like the IsraeliJews and Saudis do today.

[zoidberg]

Question: Is there sufficient land, water, and potential agricultural resources for the Kurds from Turkey to migrate into Iraqi Kurdistan?

...

Win/win/win all'round, and I don't see anyone losing from this deal. Or have I missed something (aside from the obvious point that humans, like chimps, often prefer to just screech and fling poo at each other)?

I dont know the carrying capacity, but I understand its quite mountainous, so I assume it'll be pretty low. Even if its enough to support an extra 14 million people(20% of Turkey's 70 million people are Kurdish), theres a few non-poo related problems.

1. Kurds in Turkey may object to abandoning there homes where they've lived for generations.

2. They may object, err strenuously, to a draconian birth control and population stabilization program. To you that sounds like common sense to the Kurds it may sound like a precursor to genocide. The countries they live in aren't exactly supportive of their national identity. And shoving them into a smaller box and controlling their population isn't as friendly as it sounds.

3. A mutal non-aggression pact would indeed sound good to them. Would it sound good to Turkey? Would they sign? Who would make them? (Rhetorical of course. Answers No,no, and nobody)

4.Turkey's already got quite a few troops on the border. It doesnt seem to be helping much. Would the UN be better? Could it raise enough troops to police every valley, forever? Again rhetorical. Assuming of course that they dont get ambushed all the time. Mountains are good bushwhacking country.

5. As far as Kurdistan rewarding the US with large contracts is nice to think about, but its a landlocked country. Where are the pipeline going from Kurdistan? Through Arab Iraq? Turkey? They may not have as much options in regard to awarding fat contracts as we think.

I know this is jumping on your idea with both feet. I hope you take it constructively. The best we can hope for is for Kurdistan being brought into Turkey's orbit as a satellite voluntarily. Otherwise war is the only other possible course. So if anyone's getting fat oil contracts & win/win situations it can only be Turkey.

Edit: I guess I belabored your obvious point a bit. I'm trying to show that how people feel cant be ignored and their concerns aren't trivial, and that most people in the world arent like American suburbanites who can live most anywhere.