[Xelat]

As for people from the north - if they wish to stroll through Houston on a pleasant summer day with the temperature at 101 and the humidity at 99%, far be it from me to dissuade them. As they have their heat stroke, perhaps they should be reminded to toughen up.

Wear shorts. It gets that hot in Michigan and with high humidity - I used to go running at 1am in Michigan in August shirtless because it was 80 and humid. What do you think it was like in the day? 90-100 and humid . . . I know cause I ran at 3pm also. In between I worked a full shift. Honestly, vegitating around in AC houses, cars and malls is not normal for humans and it really needn't be that way.

And I know you don't care about less fortunate countries or anyone who you consider whining etc . . . oh well.

_________________________________________

Blistered Whippet - I understand the scenario you are outlining. I do think on the timescale of nation building the changes will come quite quickly after we have passed the peak by several years. But until then I think you can expect a slow tightening of slack.

When the changes start coming quickly it's anyones guess whether you will see self reinforcing collapse or a series of breaks with subsequent semiadequate solution followed by more breaks etc. There isn't much way to be sure. This is seen quite often in mathematical modeling of complex systems . . . when you vary some constant then at some lower values you may find the system responding to pressure without breaking . . . and then beyond some particular critical value for this constant it destabilizes so that the system collapses under significant pressure.

So in short I see no reason why this should happen all at once. I think it more likely that PO will hit the mainstream conciousness in waves - "Oil might be running out" then "never fear technology is here" then "current technical solutions have not slowed oil prices" then "recession kills demand growth" then "economic recovery stalled by rising energy prices" etc etc

By their resistance to change the dumb wall streeters have managed to build in some resistance to crashes. Puts and Calls especially have lowered volatility . . . that's why the oil prices seem to behave so strangely on occasion - there are certain resistances built in to the market. Turns out the perfectly efficienct market idea was unhealthy for brokers.

I'm going to cogitate on your "those who fear anarchy will lost their democracy" [what democracy?]

[Backpacker]

Just a thought....

Whos going to need gasoline to commute to jobs they won't have?

I think the situation is far worse and so chaotic no amount of command and control will be enough. Moreover, no amount of command and control will be good. The right hand of the law will back up such regulatory features, and this will take paramilitary form.

The question we should be asking is, "Is this what we want?"

Batting around the table our amateur macroeconomic theories is fine and good but the fact is that no amount of simple infrastructure change is going to increase the sustainability factor of the average metropolitan area in a post-peak scenario. The suburbs are likewise substantially unsustainable.

The premise that I'm smelling from this thread is that the oil crash will be gradual, even subtle, enough so that "cooler heads will prevail". That politicians and our systems will be able to cope in a more or less standard fashion. We have completely lost our imagination for such drastic scenarios. For example the stock market crash of 1929 occured in a single day. What drives the market is speculation and investors' emotion. As it is spectacularly overvalued, imagine that the economic crash will come quicker than conventional social problems. OPEC will start trading oil in Euros instead of dollars. That decision will come within a day. People will lose 90% of their net worth between breakfast and lunch.

These are sudden catastrophes leading to very quick cascading systemic effects that I feel a lot of people simply haven't come to understand. They believe a rational approach will work. It will, but it requires foresight and a willingness to embrace RADICAL change.

My fear is that necessary changes will be held back by a hysterical mob of people, addicted to the system, who cannot or won't think outside the box. They'll call first for the government to save them by regulation, then by force, until the nation is a police state.

Those who fear anarchy will lose their democracy (such as it is) by giving it in exchange for "security".

That said, the European approach works to some extent to control fuel use behaviors, but fundamentally that system is also based on access to fuel for industry and commerce and as such is just as unsustainable in the long run.

That is precisely why I am pursuing my plan of stacking up on sustenance living gear every week. Each paycheck I pick up more tackle, seeds, hunting gear, etc.

[julianj]

Please take a look at my post about

Domestic Tradable Quotas

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic4556.html


It is a sophisticated, fair, rationing system which is intended to alleviate both oil scarcity and global warming, and by having individual carbon trading, allows those who are most successful at conservation to make money by trading their spare carbon emissions units

This proposal is having some positive feedback from the UK govt.

[Wildwell]

From personal observation in the last 2 years I would say that Austin and Corpus Christi both have the the denisty for well run mass transit in their respective city centers. The Dallas/Ft Worth area has the density not only to justify rail/subways downtown but in the corridor connecting the two cities. There is certainly enough density in TX (or anywhere in the world more or less) to justify high speed city connecting rail. What easier place in the world is there to lay track than TX anyway.

Mass Transit is nothing but affordable, and safe - this is part of it's nature. In LA we just had terrible train accident of which you are probably aware. That makes 10 people killed and 100 injured in the last DECADE of operation. Would you like to guess how many people were killed by cars? How much do I have to pay to ride unlimited times a day in LA - 3$. That isn't affordable?

And yet people are still opposing transit in LA and sitting in traffic in LA in their cushy idling SUVs - the average (AVERAGE) highway speed at rush hour is 18 mph. These are not RATIONAL conusmers - they need cultural reeducation.
The reason why people won't use public transport even when it is so available and affordable is because, among the middle and upper class, public transportation is looked upon as being the transportation method of choice for the lower classes. They refuse to get off of their high horse and "mingle with the commoners" on public transport. They would rather sit in 18 mph traffic and pressure the govt. into widening roads than give up their private vehicle and associate with the plebians. It is a materialistic "keeping up with the Joneses" thing. That is why I advocate that the govt. quit widening road to accomodate increased vehicle traffic no matter how much the public complains. Spend the money on mass rail transit instead. Force them to abandon driving to work and taking rail instead.
The comment about the average rush hour speed in LA being 18 mph brings up a good point. Along that same line it has been demonstrated in studies that, for in-town driving, the average speed on a bicycle is only around 4 miles per hour slower than the average speed in an automobile. It is nice when traffic is backed up at an intersection and I zip right by them on my bike.

I totally agree. The pro/con arguments over cars (especially large car) use are entirely cultural and based on perception. Very little real fact is put into this debate at all. The fact remains European cities could not survive without commuter rail and bus services. In fact the total is 89% of passengers into central London every morning by bus and train. Not commoners, professional business people, financial people and people that make the country tick. There is no other way to get there, roads just do not have the flow and Europeans do not have the space for 16 lane freeways.

The figures can be seen here

http://www.transport2000.org.uk/library ... ion_02.htm

I am absolutely against any military action in order to carry on the use of large, wasteful, status based vehicles. It's just crazy for all concerned in the long run.

[nocar]

I certainly like the idea that everyone gets a tradable amount of gasoline. Finally those of us who have learnt to live without a car and thereby helped society will get some pay for our efforts! We will sell it and live well!

But even if society does rationing in the market liberal fashion by price alone, the already carless will be at an advantage, as we do not need to spend money on gas (of course like everyone else we would have to pay more for everything this made from or transported by oil, pretty much everything - but so will all the car drivers too)

The worst system for us already carless would be conventional rationing, whereby someone decides who "needs" gasoline. Those who get it cheap because they are "needy" will be privileged - and then we who get nothing still have to support all those administrators who get paid (with our money) to decide who is needy (corruption is the wings!)

Another topic is this thread: Although I completely agree that it will be difficult to get USarians out of their cars (unless we are talking decades and centuries) I refuse to think that they well be completely unable to cope with less gasoline (rationed by prices or whatever other means). Currently there is room for 5 in each car but generally only one person uses it. Car-pooling! It has been used before! And today with cell phones and internet it will be easier than ever to match people going in the same direction at the same time. And a more cooperative spirit might develop as bonus.

Nocar
(now living carfree, car-pooled in Maryland suburbs in the 1970s.)

[Jack]

It is a sophisticated, fair, rationing system which is intended to alleviate both oil scarcity and global warming, and by having individual carbon trading, allows those who are most successful at conservation to make money by trading their spare carbon emissions units

So we have an income transfer scheme from drivers to non-drivers. That's what it all comes down to, isn't it? A desire to somehow punish those who choose to live well.

[smallpoxgirl]

Umm...have you associated with any of the commoners on public transportation lately? The crying, mewling, dripping children? Their mothers, who appear to have Down's syndrome? The gang bangers who take up two seats and dare anyone to say anything? The maids who like to brag about what they've stolen from their employer, and comment about their work habits - i.e., lying in bed, watching television most of the day? The odiferous unbathed?

What an arogant prick you are!

I've actually very nice interactions with folks on public transit from LA to Philadelphia. People that actually work for a living instead of sitting around in art deco offices drinking mocha lattes and leaching off society. Perfume-reeking prozac-popping suburb dwellers driving their little J Crew-clad Hitler Youths to soccer and ballet and the mall in their Toyota Sequoia death mobiles. The souless mass unable to think beyond cookie cutter families with cookie cutter lives in cookie cutter houses on cookie cutter 1/8th acre lots in a cookie cutter world. Trying to buy their way to being human: Nike, Pottery Barn, Avercrombie, Nextel, IKEA, Ralph Lauren. Dead people too stupid to realize it and stop breathing.

I'd rather hang with the odiferous[sic] unbathed any day thanks. At least they know something of hardship...and life.

[Xelat]

What an arogant prick you are!

I've actually very nice interactions with folks on public transit from LA to Philadelphia. People that actually work for a living instead of sitting around in art deco offices drinking mocha lattes and leaching off society. Perfume-reeking prozac-popping suburb dwellers driving their little J Crew-clad Hitler Youths to soccer and ballet and the mall in their Toyota Sequoia death mobiles. The souless mass unable to think beyond cookie cutter families with cookie cutter lives in cookie cutter houses on cookie cutter 1/8th acre lots in a cookie cutter world. Trying to buy their way to being human: Nike, Pottery Barn, Avercrombie, Nextel, IKEA, Ralph Lauren. Dead people too stupid to realize it and stop breathing.

I'd rather hang with the odiferous[sic] unbathed any day thanks. At least they know something of hardship...and life.

An ode to HST!

[Jack]

I've actually very nice interactions with folks on public transit from LA to Philadelphia.

Very nice? Or merely amusing?

By the way, the evening news reported another armed abduction and attempted rape of a woman waiting at a bus stop.

If you like public transportation, by all means, enjoy it. Just don't try to force the rest of us to deal with the odiferous dysfunctionals.

[smallpoxgirl]

Very nice? Or merely amusing? .

You know if you weren't such a condescending prick, you might discover that those people you brush off everyday are real human beings. Spend a minute of your precious time. Get out of your SUV. (No you won't melt being out of the AC for a few minutes.) Sit down and talk to a homeless person. Better yet listen. You might find you learn something.

Most of those folks, IMHO, know a lot more about the way the world works than most college professors do.

If you want ammusement OTOH, my suggestion is this. Go to a shopping mall. Find a couple of suits sitting around bitching how they guy didn't detail their Acura right. Then imagine them the week after the grocery stores close for the last time. Works for me every time.

[Jack]

You know if you weren't such a condescending prick, you might discover that those people you brush off everyday are real human beings. Spend a minute of your precious time. Get out of your SUV. (No you won't melt being out of the AC for a few minutes.) Sit down and talk to a homeless person. Better yet listen. You might find you learn something.

Umm? Such as where one might find a warm steam grate, an unlocked dumpster, or the best spots to panhandle?

Most of those folks, IMHO, know a lot more about the way the world works than most college professors do.

If they know how the world works, they certainly aren't applying the knowledge very effectively, now, are they? The college professors, on the other hand, get well paid for not much work. And summers off.

If you want ammusement OTOH, my suggestion is this. Go to a shopping mall. Find a couple of suits sitting around bitching how they guy didn't detail their Acura right. Then imagine them the week after the grocery stores close for the last time. Works for me every time.

Ahh, so you find the prospect of human misery amusing. Very good!

[jato]

There are many different grades of homeless in the USA. In my experience, most are bums who have serious mental or chemical problems. Some are good people who are trying to get back on their feet.

If you want amusement OTOH, my suggestion is this. Go to a shopping mall. Find a couple of suits sitting around bitching how they guy didn't detail their Acura right. Then imagine them the week after the grocery stores close for the last time. Works for me every time.

I don't know...the guy with the Acura may have the wherewithal to plan for difficult times. The bum on the street is dependant on handouts, garbage or fruits of theft. What will happen when the handouts stop and people are shot for stealing (post peak crash)?

[Wildwell]

Car and lorry hijacking is big over here. Cars are run into at very low speed from behind. The victim jumps out of his car, the criminals mate jumps into the victim’s car and both cars then drive off leaving the victim somewhat dazed.

There's no statistical evidence to say they public transport (which by the way includes air and taxis) is any less safe. There's always a risk in everything we do, even breathing carries a risk these days, especially in polluted cities.

Personally I'd rather force people onto public transport than force them to war. Maybe we should have a 'deaths per barrel' quote system, to see how many people were killed per barrel produced? I jest.

[smallpoxgirl]

Most of those folks, IMHO, know a lot more about the way the world works than most college professors do.

If they know how the world works, they certainly aren't applying the knowledge very effectively, now, are they? The college professors, on the other hand, get well paid for not much work. And summers off.

Sorta depends on what your standards of success are. I suspect you might find that some of them would consider you just as much of a failure for wasting your life on a dead-end job as you consider them for not bathing on a time schedule acceptable to you. Try it sometime. Break out of your mold. Just sit down and have a conversation. Pick up a hitchhiker and have a conversation on the way. Some of them aren't very interesting. Some have a bit of mental illness, but then so do many surubanites. I promise our smell won't stick to your leather seats.

Then again you could just go on being a condescending narrow minded prick and mock anything that deviates outside your shopping mall reality. Perhaps that is better for you. Safer. Easier. Less threatening.

I will agree with you on one thing though. College professors definitely masters of exploiting their very limited knowledge of the world to maximal finacial benefit.

[julianj]

Jack
So we have an income transfer scheme from drivers to non-drivers. That's what it all comes down to, isn't it? A desire to somehow punish those who choose to live well.

Oh, Jack it's worse than you think...

The carbon units cover all fuels including domestic heating and electricity, so effectively its a transfer of income from car drivers to:

Stinkin' hippies who live unwashed in primitive teepees

[Jack]

Jack
So we have an income transfer scheme from drivers to non-drivers. That's what it all comes down to, isn't it? A desire to somehow punish those who choose to live well.

Oh, Jack it's worse than you think...

The carbon units cover all fuels including domestic heating and electricity, so effectively its a transfer of income from car drivers to:

Stinkin' hippies who live unwashed in primitive teepees

Gad! That's dreadful! Now, the question is...how can I use lots of energy without helping those loathsome people?

[Jack]

I promise our smell won't stick to your leather seats.

Hmm? So you say. But I note with concern that you don't say anything about cleaning it, in the event that it does stick. And then there are the stains.

Then again you could just go on being a condescending narrow minded prick and mock anything that deviates outside your shopping mall reality. Perhaps that is better for you. Safer. Easier. Less threatening.

Marvelous! I like your thinking. I'll strive to maintain the standard.

On a somewhat more serious note, I see that you used the term "our smell", suggesting that you identify with the homeless, the hitchhikers, and so forth. You go on to criticize the more affluent, and to discuss their attributes and behaviors. This is the mirror image of my own points about the annoying nature of the group you appear to feel some affinity for.

And that's why cooperation and community won't work. Various groups do not and will not trust each other, and they do not and will not work together. Rationing won't work, because everyone will try to evade the limits, or pick someone else's pockets.

Easter Island, here we come.

[smallpoxgirl]

On a somewhat more serious note, I see that you used the term "our smell", suggesting that you identify with the homeless, the hitchhikers, and so forth. You go on to criticize the more affluent, and to discuss their attributes and behaviors.

Well...I don't fit into one neat category on the class scale. As you noted, I clearly identify with the "odiferous[sic] dysfunctionals". I grew up dirt poor out in the sticks of Tennessee. As a 30 year old physician who works for the moment in an urban area, I am by definition a YUPPIE (Young Urban Proffesional.) I generally find the Acura crowd noted above to be base, stupid, uninisightful, sheep like, soul-less, and profoundly deficient as human beings. So I live in a trailer park with people who keep chickens and cars on blocks in their yards. I park my rusty 76 pickup in the doctors parking at work and get great enjoyment from watching all the Lexus drivers shrink in horror. I have friends who are homeless. Friends who hitchhike. Friends who hop freight trains. They have more important things to worry about than what brand of soap someone is using and so do I.

[Jack]

So I live in a trailer park with people who keep chickens and cars on blocks in their yards. I park my rusty 76 pickup in the doctors parking at work and get great enjoyment from watching all the Lexus drivers shrink in horror. I have friends who are homeless. Friends who hitchhike. Friends who hop freight trains.

In other words, you haven't gotten over being poor. Perhaps you should consider getting into therapy.

Notice, however, that you may have a tendency to see Peak Oil as a mechanism which will bring the affluent down to the level of the poor. I perceive that you desire that outcome. Please consider the possibility that the poor occupy their present rung on the economic ladder because they don't have much to offer. If the entire ladder sinks, one must question what attributes they might have that would improve their position relative to others. I must conclude they don't have any such qualities, and will, therefore, still be lower than an Acura owner's sole.

[Wildwell]

Please consider the possibility that the poor occupy their present rung on the economic ladder because they don't have much to offer.

So it’s nothing to do with opportunities, wealth and exploitation by the rich then?

I was studying US transportation stats, you have a very efficient freight railroad that carries a good deal of freight. So this is mainly a people moving thing, it might be possible to crack that yet given a little thought and planning.

Peok oil is mainly about geography, the military and banks IMHO not much to do with the scum factor.