[Tanada]

IMHO a great line atributed to Art Berman: “Shale is not a revolution–it’s a retirement party. Shale plays were not some great new idea. They became important only as more attractive plays were exhausted.”

From someone with a compromised view of the history of the oil industry, if he doesn't know that, he isn't really capable of discussing its future, or retirement.

Even the EIA says it's a retirement party. The peak may have been been pushed out and lowered, but prior to the price collapse they had three scenarios in their forecasts which I assume can be categorized as expected, pessimistic, and extremely optimistic. The expected forecast had shale oil production peaking in 2019/2020. The production that has been the majority of the increase in world production for the last 7 years will peak in 2020. A cornucopian has to be pretty old to hang their hat on a 2020 peak.

That 2019/2022 peak for shale oil USA was projected when drilling was going on as fast as rigs were available. That stopped happening in the first half of 2015 and has fallen to quasi stable level now oriented around the actual current price. If the math I saw some weeks ago is accurate frackers will drill about the same number of new oil wells in 2016 that they drilled in 2010, far less than they drilled in 2012, 2013 or 2014. This not only makes the 2019-2022 peak production from fracking get delayed into the future, it also lowers the ultimate peak production because the the same volume is produced under the curve, but at a slower rate.

[sparky]

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I've been re-reading the original posts of the thread , with insight that was a pretty good call .

[AdamB]

IMHO a great line atributed to Art Berman: “Shale is not a revolution–it’s a retirement party. Shale plays were not some great new idea. They became important only as more attractive plays were exhausted.”

From someone with a compromised view of the history of the oil industry, if he doesn't know that, he isn't really capable of discussing its future, or retirement.

Even the EIA says it's a retirement party.

Here is the EIA graphic demonstrating what a retirement party it is. Can you point to any year between now and 2040 that shows what you claim that they are showing this?

Here is the gas retirement party:



Here is the oil retirement party:



perhaps you are confusing retirement party with price response? You do understand that the bottom up, supply and resource based models the EIA uses operates from such first order principles of supply and demand, and therefore isn't fooled by price response like those fitting random declines to time series data and proclaiming doom and whatnot?

The peak may have been been pushed out and lowered, but prior to the price collapse they had three scenarios in their forecasts which I assume can be categorized as expected, pessimistic, and extremely optimistic. The expected forecast had shale oil production peaking in 2019/2020. The production that has been the majority of the increase in world production for the last 7 years will peak in 2020. A cornucopian has to be pretty old to hang their hat on a 2020 peak.

Feel free to observe the current price response of oil and gas production, and the next peak of oil production in the US based on a price response in a different direction. A peaker has to be pretty old to hang their hat on yet ANOTHER peak that is based on price response, rather than resource scarcity.

Art undoubtedly does his own price response calculation, perhaps he even runs NEMs, ASPO did once say they were going to do just that, to be able to input their own underlying resource assumptions...you know...divide all the real data by 10 or something, in order to create oilpoclypse.

But Art doesn't show his work, publish the code, doesn't even provide his own resource estimates or explain how he uses the USGS ones...and his past record is of saying something was going to down just as it went up, or up when it went down, or couldn't even happen. Such as shale development. Surprising that any one person can get it so wrong, but we are talking about a guy who claimed in public that the first horizontal well was drilled in the early 80's. Really, when people can't be bothered to learn the facts of something, does anything they say have any credibility?

[AdamB]

That 2019/2022 peak for shale oil USA was projected when drilling was going on as fast as rigs were available. That stopped happening in the first half of 2015 and has fallen to quasi stable level now oriented around the actual current price. If the math I saw some weeks ago is accurate frackers will drill about the same number of new oil wells in 2016 that they drilled in 2010, far less than they drilled in 2012, 2013 or 2014. This not only makes the 2019-2022 peak production from fracking get delayed into the future, it also lowers the ultimate peak production because the the same volume is produced under the curve, but at a slower rate.

The area under of the oil curve is...less? How does that happening when the long term production rates are increasing? Looks like under a increasing price environment calling for a new peak in US oil production by 2028 or so, and more peak after that. Huh.

This comes from the AEO 2016 by the way, their newest AEO release, end of May I believe?

[ennui2]

"totally f@cked"

Why don't you define what that means first before we shoot your argument full of holes? When does the pain bite in and how severe? ETP price crash or classic peak-oil price spike? But just saying "totally f@cked" is useless.

[ennui2]

I will not repeat myself

You've already repeated it a billion times before and I'm sure you'll keep repeating it, so don't tease us with such false promises.

WE ARE RUNNING OUT OF OIL.

Oh, silly silly Mr. Starr. Don't you know peak-oilers bristle at the confusion between running out of oil and being post-peak?

Just as we are running out of phosphorous, copper, fisheries, arable land etc.

How about a functional climate? The AGW you keep downplaying? Seems like you have a little hole in your understanding.

The last drops will never be produced. They are too deep, too expensive and our overpopulated consumer will never afford what is left. sorry.

You didn't answer my question. What does "we're f@cked" mean?

Do you have anything to contribute besides promoting a vague and diffuse pessimism about the future?

[ROCKMAN]

"Looks like under a increasing price environment calling for a new peak in US oil production by 2028 or so..." No one can make a fact based prediction of the price of oil in 3 years. So a 10 prediction is rediculous. Thus so is predicting shale drilling activity and production in 2026.

But everyone is free to offer their OPINION of what those future stats might be. And opinions can't be judged as right or wrong if that's want a person expects because opinions are not FACTS. You can only agree or disagree with an opinion. Only the accuracy of facts can be judged. Which we won't be able to do for another decade with respect to shale production in 2026.

Sh*t, we can't get a f*cking concensus today on shale production rates in one year. 2026??? LMFAO.

[dashster]

IMHO a great line atributed to Art Berman: “Shale is not a revolution–it’s a retirement party. Shale plays were not some great new idea. They became important only as more attractive plays were exhausted.”

From someone with a compromised view of the history of the oil industry, if he doesn't know that, he isn't really capable of discussing its future, or retirement.

Even the EIA says it's a retirement party.

Here is the EIA graphic demonstrating what a retirement party it is. Can you point to any year between now and 2040 that shows what you claim that they are showing this?


Here is the oil retirement party:



perhaps you are confusing retirement party with price response? You do understand that the bottom up, supply and resource based models the EIA uses operates from such first order principles of supply and demand, and therefore isn't fooled by price response like those fitting random declines to time series data and proclaiming doom and whatnot?

My statement was based on the EIA's own predictions from before the price fall. Predictions they made when oil prices were at a record inflation-adjusted plateau. They did have a prediction back then that showed shale oil increasing through 2040. But that was their optimistic prediction. Their reference prediction was a peak in 2019/2020 and their pessimistic showed a peak in 2016. It looks like something has caused them to make their optimistic prediction their reference - assuming you are showing a graph to their reference prediction. I wonder what their optimistic prediction looks like these days - do we stop importing oil?

[AdamB]

Shale is still a retirement party.

Not according to the premiere energy stats and analysis folks in the US, and more importantly, one of the few groups that didn't fall for peak oil back when it was being proclaimed around the web.

But please, feel free to issue your take on the topic based on your man-minutes of experience, training and prior work against their man century of work for just 1 years product.

[AdamB]

"Looks like under a increasing price environment calling for a new peak in US oil production by 2028 or so..." No one can make a fact based prediction of the price of oil in 3 years. So a 10 prediction is rediculous. Thus so is predicting shale drilling activity and production in 2026.

It's a projection Rockman, of course no one knows the price of oil a decade in the future. Even the people who got pretty close to global oil production today...from 10 years back.

But here is the kicker...that rich oil man boss of yours? He has a price path in the future, he has to. And it isn't any more fact based than anyone else guessing into the future, but it isn't any more ridiculous than the countries energy experts doing it, except they are a bunch of economists and whatnot, and not business people. Haven't decided yet if that is a fact in their favor, or not.

But everyone is free to offer their OPINION of what those future stats might be.

Sure. Just like your companies owner. Tell us Rockman, has he EVER missed making good on your paycheck, based on his future expectation of oil and gas prices? Even once? Or did he guess...well enough? The EIA is sort of like that, except a bureaucrat's paycheck doesn't come directly from their commodity sales, but YOUR owners ability to do what they do, and the government's ability to steal some money from him.

Sh*t, we can't get a f*cking concensus today on shale production rates in one year. 2026??? LMFAO.

Well, the EIA got the world right from a decade out, the folks on this website? How about the eggheaded set?

Knowing that the EIA hit the global totals, I wonder how the websites did? Some opinions appear to be worth more than others, wouldn't you say Mr Rockman?

[AdamB]

My statement was based on the EIA's own predictions from before the price fall. Predictions they made when oil prices were at a record inflation-adjusted plateau.

Well, that would be back in 2008. Do you have one of their graphs demonstrating this retirement party of the shale...I should mention, that the EIA was busy underestimating shale production during the entire length of the revolution, after 2009, so this might be a difficult point to make.

They did have a prediction back then that showed shale oil increasing through 2040. But that was their optimistic prediction. Their reference prediction was a peak in 2019/2020 and their pessimistic showed a peak in 2016. It looks like something has caused them to make their optimistic prediction their reference - assuming you are showing a graph to their reference prediction. I wonder what their optimistic prediction looks like these days - do we stop importing oil?

Any reference for that graph, circa the real high oil prices in 2008?

And through 2040, based on the oil graph from the AEO 2016, I don't think their demand scenarios are less than domestic supply volumes.

[dashster]

My statement was based on the EIA's own predictions from before the price fall. Predictions they made when oil prices were at a record inflation-adjusted plateau.

Well, that would be back in 2008.

I said plateau. The record inflation adjusted price plateau was from 2010 to 2014.

Do you have one of their graphs demonstrating this retirement party of the shale...

I

They did have a prediction back then that showed shale oil increasing through 2040. But that was their optimistic prediction. Their reference prediction was a peak in 2019/2020 and their pessimistic showed a peak in 2016. It looks like something has caused them to make their optimistic prediction their reference - assuming you are showing a graph to their reference prediction. I wonder what their optimistic prediction looks like these days - do we stop importing oil?

Any reference for that graph, circa the real high oil prices in 2008?

I said record inflation-adjusted price plateau. The "real high oil prices in 2008" were just a temporary spike. The graph above is from the real high oil price plateau - the real high price plateau that the EIA, IEA and oil industry never forecast. They were all caught with their pants down.

[AdamB]

My statement was based on the EIA's own predictions from before the price fall. Predictions they made when oil prices were at a record inflation-adjusted plateau.

Well, that would be back in 2008.

I said plateau. The record inflation adjusted price plateau was from 2010 to 2014.

Plateau is pretty arbitrary, you pick 4 years, I pick a month, both are plateaus of time, one shorter than another, both completely valid. But okay, I can dig it, 4 years of plateau, which slides the years off the peak price.

Do you have one of their graphs demonstrating this retirement party of the shale...

I

So that is the high/low resource case, prior to the resource estimates that went into the AEO 2016. I haven't seen the high/low resource case for the AEO2016 yet, the only reference I would find was the reference case and the CPP case, and they were listed as early release, so maybe we have high/low resource yet to come.

Any reference for that graph, circa the real high oil prices in 2008?

The graph above is from the real high oil price plateau - the real high price plateau that the EIA, IEA and oil industry never forecast. It is silly to talk about forecasts made at "the real high oil prices in 2008" since it was just a quick spike, not a plateau like followed.

Again, your definition of plateau wasn't clear, but I think I get the drift.

And here is the price path for the AEO 2015, which includes their price range. Looks like they were accounting for the possibility of long term higher prices, in combination with those higher and lower resource cases. And back in 2015, they could already see the lower prices coming, but didn't predict that the glut would continue as long as it has.

[dashster]

My statement was based on the EIA's own predictions from before the price fall. Predictions they made when oil prices were at a record inflation-adjusted plateau.

Well, that would be back in 2008.

I said plateau. The record inflation adjusted price plateau was from 2010 to 2014.

Plateau is pretty arbitrary, you pick 4 years, I pick a month, both are plateaus of time, one shorter than another, both completely valid. But okay, I can dig it, 4 years of plateau, which slides the years off the peak price.

The only plateau that matters is the one I was talking about. The one that had 4 years of record inflation adjusted oil prices plateau during which time the EIA was predicting a shale retirement party in 2019/2020.

Any reference for that graph, circa the real high oil prices in 2008?

The graph above is from the real high oil price plateau - the real high price plateau that the EIA, IEA and oil industry never forecast. It is silly to talk about forecasts made at "the real high oil prices in 2008" since it was just a quick spike, not a plateau like followed.

Again, your definition of plateau wasn't clear, but I think I get the drift.

The important thing is that during the high price plateau the EIA talked about shale peaking in less than a decade. The question now is what changed their mind.

And here is the price path for the AEO 2015, which includes their price range. Looks like they were accounting for the possibility of long term higher prices, in combination with those higher and lower resource cases. And back in 2015, they could already see the lower prices coming, but didn't predict that the glut would continue as long as it has.

I don't see prices being a factor as to how their previous optimistic prediction became their reference prediction, since prices have dropped. They must have decided that reserves are much larger they they originally felt.